943 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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In this paper the architecture of an experimental multiparadigmatic programming environment is sketched, showing how its parts combine together with application modules in order to perform the integration of program modules written in different programming languages and paradigms. Adaptive automata are special self-modifying formal state machines used as a design and implementation tool in the representation of complex systems. Adaptive automata have been proven to have the same formal power as Turing Machines. Therefore, at least in theory, arbitrarily complex systems may be modeled with adaptive automata. The present work briefly introduces such formal tool and presents case studies showing how to use them in two very different situations: the first one, in the name management module of a multi-paradigmatic and multi-language programming environment, and the second one, in an application program implementing an adaptive automaton that accepts a context-sensitive language.

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Na modelagem de sistemas complexos, abordagens analíticas tradicionais com equações diferenciais muitas vezes resultam em soluções intratáveis. Para contornar este problema, Modelos Baseados em Agentes surgem como uma ferramenta complementar, onde o sistema é modelado a partir de suas entidades constituintes e interações. Mercados Financeiros são exemplos de sistemas complexos, e como tais, o uso de modelos baseados em agentes é aplicável. Este trabalho implementa um Mercado Financeiro Artificial composto por formadores de mercado, difusores de informações e um conjunto de agentes heterogêneos que negociam um ativo através de um mecanismo de Leilão Duplo Contínuo. Diversos aspectos da simulação são investigados para consolidar sua compreensão e assim contribuir com a concepção de modelos, onde podemos destacar entre outros: Diferenças do Leilão Duplo Contínuo contra o Discreto; Implicações da variação do spread praticado pelo Formador de Mercado; Efeito de Restrições Orçamentárias sobre os agentes e Análise da formação de preços na emissão de ofertas. Pensando na aderência do modelo com a realidade do mercado brasileiro, uma técnica auxiliar chamada Simulação Inversa, é utilizada para calibrar os parâmetros de entrada, de forma que trajetórias de preços simulados resultantes sejam próximas à séries de preços históricos observadas no mercado.

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A abordagem de Modelos Baseados em Agentes é utilizada para trabalhar problemas complexos, em que se busca obter resultados partindo da análise e construção de componentes e das interações entre si. Os resultados observados a partir das simulações são agregados da combinação entre ações e interferências que ocorrem no nível microscópico do modelo. Conduzindo, desta forma, a uma simulação do micro para o macro. Os mercados financeiros são sistemas perfeitos para o uso destes modelos por preencherem a todos os seus requisitos. Este trabalho implementa um Modelo de Mercado Financeiro Baseado em Agentes constituído por diversos agentes que interagem entre si através de um Núcleo de Negociação que atua com dois ativos e conta com o auxílio de formadores de mercado para promover a liquidez dos mercados, conforme se verifica em mercados reais. Para operação deste modelo, foram desenvolvidos dois tipos de agentes que administram, simultaneamente, carteiras com os dois ativos. O primeiro tipo usa o modelo de Markowitz, enquanto o segundo usa técnicas de análise de spread entre ativos. Outra contribuição deste modelo é a análise sobre o uso de função objetivo sobre os retornos dos ativos, no lugar das análises sobre os preços.

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Esta dissertação se propõe a cartografar as redes sociotécnicas do design no campo do management nos moldes propostos pela Teoria Ator-Rede e apresentar o processo de translação pelo qual passou o termo ao adentrar no campo. Para tal, levantou e analisou artigos publicados sobre o tema nos principais periódicos da área de organizações e publicações. Estes textos demonstram como, nas últimas décadas, o design tem passado por uma expansão de sentido e aplicação na direção do management (ou do management no sentido do design), através das abordagens denominadas design thinking, design science ou design process. A pesquisa se justifica, uma vez que este assunto está presente nos principais periódicos do management e dos estudos organizacionais, como uma importante ferramenta para solução de problemas que desafiam os sistemas organizacionais, como: a mudança, o empreendedorismo e a inovação (Stephens & Boland, 2014). É importante destacar que o design tem sido cada vez mais considerado uma atividade decisiva na batalha econômica (Callon, 1986), na determinação dos atuais estilos de vida (lifestyle) e na construção de nosso mundo futuro. No campo dos estudos organizacionais, como demonstrou esta pesquisa, o design surge como uma abordagem que supera a dicotomia entre positivismo e a abordagem crítica na teoria organizacional (Jelinek, Romme & Boland, 2008). Por fim, esta dissertação se ateve à cartografia das redes sociotécnicas e à descrição das quatro principais fases do processo de translação do design no campo do management, a saber: (a) problematização, marcada pela publicação de The Sciences of Artificial em 1969 de Herbert A. Simon, no qual, ele argumenta pelo design como uma habilidade básica para todas as especialidades profissionais, incluindo a gestão (Simon, 1996), (b) interessamento, designers defendendo um design de sistemas complexos como as organizações, (c) engajamento, designers e teóricos das organizações juntos pelo design no management como uma alternativa para a superação da dicotomia entre positivismo e os estudos críticos na administração, e, (d) mobilização, na qual os teóricos das organizações partem em defesa do design no management como um forma de dar conta de modelos organizacionais contemporâneos com fronteiras mais permeáveis e em constante reformulação

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INTRODUCTION With the advent of Web 2.0, social networking websites like Facebook, MySpace and LinkedIn have become hugely popular. According to (Nilsen, 2009), social networking websites have global1 figures of almost 250 millions unique users among the top five2, with the time people spend on those networks increasing 63% between 2007 and 2008. Facebook alone saw a massive growth of 566% in number of minutes in the same period of time. Furthermore their appeal is clear, they enable users to easily form persistent networks of friends with whom they can interact and share content. Users then use those networks to keep in touch with their current friends and to reconnect with old friends. However, online social network services have rapidly evolved into highly complex systems which contain a large amount of personally salient information derived from large networks of friends. Since that information varies from simple links to music, photos and videos, users not only have to deal with the huge amount of data generated by them and their friends but also with the fact that it‟s composed of many different media forms. Users are presented with increasing challenges, especially as the number of friends on Facebook rises. An example of a problem is when a user performs a simple task like finding a specific friend in a group of 100 or more friends. In that case he would most likely have to go through several pages and make several clicks till he finds the one he is looking for. Another example is a user with more than 100 friends in which his friends make a status update or another action per day, resulting in 10 updates per hour to keep up. That is plausible, especially since the change in direction of Facebook to rival with Twitter, by encouraging users to update their status as they do on Twitter. As a result, to better present the web of information connected to a user the use of better visualizations is essential. The visualizations used nowadays on social networking sites haven‟t gone through major changes during their lifetimes. They have added more functionality and gave more tools to their users, but still the core of their visualization hasn‟t changed. The information is still presented in a flat way in lists/groups of text and images which can‟t show the extra connections pieces of information. Those extra connections can give new meaning and insights to the user, allowing him to more easily see if that content is important to him and the information related to it. However showing extra connections of information but still allowing the user to easily navigate through it and get the needed information with a quick glance is difficult. The use of color coding, clusters and shapes becomes then essential to attain that objective. But taking into consideration the advances in computer hardware in the last decade and the software platforms available today, there is the opportunity to take advantage of 3D. That opportunity comes in because we are at a phase were the hardware and the software available is ready for the use of 3D in the web. With the use of the extra dimension brought by 3D, visualizations can be constructed to show the content and its related information to the user at the same screen and in a clear way. Also it would allow a great deal of interactivity. Another opportunity to create better information‟s visualization presents itself in the form of the open APIs, specifically the ones made available by the social networking sites. Those APIs allow any developers to create their own applications or sites taking advantage of the huge amount of information there is on those networks. Specifically to this case, they open the door for the creation of new social network visualizations. Nevertheless, the third dimension is by itself not enough to create a better interface for a social networking website, there are some challenges to overcome. One of those challenges is to make the user understand what the system is doing during the interaction with the user. Even though that is important in 2D visualizations, it becomes essential in 3D due to the extra dimension. To overcome that challenge it‟s necessary the use of the principles of animations defined by the artists at Walt Disney Studios (Johnston, et al., 1995). By applying those principles in the development of the interface, the actions of the system in response to the user inputs became clear and understandable. Furthermore, a user study needs to be performed so the users‟ main goals and motivations, while navigating the social network, are revealed. Their goals and motivations are important in the construction of an interface that reflects the user expectations for the interface, but also helps in the development of appropriate metaphors. Those metaphors have an important role in the interface, because if correctly chosen they help the user understand the elements of the interface instead of making him memorize it. The last challenge is the use of 3D visualization on the web, since there have been several attempts to bring 3D into it, mainly with the various versions of VRML which were destined to failure due to the hardware limitations at the time. However, in the last couple of years there has been a movement to make the necessary tools to finally allow developers to use 3D in a useful way, using X3D or OpenGL but especially flash. This thesis argues that there is a need for a better social network visualization that shows all the dimensions of the information connected to the user and that allows him to move through it. But there are several characteristics the new visualization has to possess in order for it to present a real gain in usability to Facebook‟s users. The first quality is to have the friends at the core of its design, and the second to make use of the metaphor of circles of friends to separate users in groups taking into consideration the order of friendship. To achieve that several methods have to be used, from the use of 3D to get an extra dimension for presenting relevant information, to the use of direct manipulation to make the interface comprehensible, predictable and controllable. Moreover animation has to be use to make all the action on the screen perceptible to the user. Additionally, with the opportunity given by the 3D enabled hardware, the flash platform, through the use of the flash engine Papervision3D and the Facebook platform, all is in place to make the visualization possible. But even though it‟s all in place, there are challenges to overcome like making the system actions in 3D understandable to the user and creating correct metaphors that would allow the user to understand the information and options available to him. This thesis document is divided in six chapters, with Chapter 2 reviewing the literature relevant to the work described in this thesis. In Chapter 3 the design stage that resulted in the application presented in this thesis is described. In Chapter 4, the development stage, describing the architecture and the components that compose the application. In Chapter 5 the usability test process is explained and the results obtained through it are presented and analyzed. To finish, Chapter 6 presents the conclusions that were arrived in this thesis.

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Organizations are Complex systems. A conceptual model of the enterprise is needed that is: coherent the distinguished aspect models constitute a logical and truly integral comprehensive all relevant issues are covered consistent the aspect models are free from contradictions or irregularities concise no superfluous matters are contained in it essential it shows only the essence of the enterprise, i.e., the model abstracts from all realization and implementation issues. The world is in great need for transparency about the operation of all the systems we daily work with, ranging from the domestic appliances to the big societal institutions. In this context the field of enterprise ontology has emerged with the aim to create models that help to understand the essence of the construction and operation of complete systems; more specifically, of enterprises. Enterprise ontology arises in the way to look through the distracting and confusing appearance of an enterprise right into its deep kernel. This, from the perspective of the system designer gives him the tools needed to design a successful system in a way that’s reflects the desires and needs of the workers of the enterprise. This project’s context is the use of DEMO (Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations) for (re)designing or (re)engineering of an enterprise, namely a process of the construction department of a city hall, the lack of a well-founded theory about the construction and operation of this processes that was the motivation behind this work. The purpose of studying applying the DEMO theory and method was to optimize the process, automating it as much as possible, while reducing paper and time spent between tasks and provide a better service to the citizens.

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The study of complex systems has become a prestigious area of science, although relatively young . Its importance was demonstrated by the diversity of applications that several studies have already provided to various fields such as biology , economics and Climatology . In physics , the approach of complex systems is creating paradigms that influence markedly the new methods , bringing to Statistical Physics problems macroscopic level no longer restricted to classical studies such as those of thermodynamics . The present work aims to make a comparison and verification of statistical data on clusters of profiles Sonic ( DT ) , Gamma Ray ( GR ) , induction ( ILD ) , neutron ( NPHI ) and density ( RHOB ) to be physical measured quantities during exploratory drilling of fundamental importance to locate , identify and characterize oil reservoirs . Software were used : Statistica , Matlab R2006a , Origin 6.1 and Fortran for comparison and verification of the data profiles of oil wells ceded the field Namorado School by ANP ( National Petroleum Agency ) . It was possible to demonstrate the importance of the DFA method and that it proved quite satisfactory in that work, coming to the conclusion that the data H ( Hurst exponent ) produce spatial data with greater congestion . Therefore , we find that it is possible to find spatial pattern using the Hurst coefficient . The profiles of 56 wells have confirmed the existence of spatial patterns of Hurst exponents , ie parameter B. The profile does not directly assessed catalogs verification of geological lithology , but reveals a non-random spatial distribution

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The present study provides a methodology that gives a predictive character the computer simulations based on detailed models of the geometry of a porous medium. We using the software FLUENT to investigate the flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a random fractal medium which simplifies a two-dimensional disordered porous medium representing a petroleum reservoir. This fractal model is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose size distribution function follows a power law where exponent is defined as the fractal dimension of fractionation Dff of the model characterizing the process of fragmentation these obstacles. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The modeling process incorporates modern concepts, scaling laws, to analyze the influence of heterogeneity found in the fields of the porosity and of the permeability in such a way as to characterize the medium in terms of their fractal properties. This procedure allows numerically analyze the measurements of permeability k and the drag coefficient Cd proposed relationships, like power law, for these properties on various modeling schemes. The purpose of this research is to study the variability provided by these heterogeneities where the velocity field and other details of viscous fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically the continuity and Navier-Stokes equations at pore level and observe how the fractal dimension of fractionation of the model can affect their hydrodynamic properties. This study were considered two classes of models, models with constant porosity, MPC, and models with varying porosity, MPV. The results have allowed us to find numerical relationship between the permeability, drag coefficient and the fractal dimension of fractionation of the medium. Based on these numerical results we have proposed scaling relations and algebraic expressions involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon. In this study analytical equations were determined for Dff depending on the geometrical parameters of the models. We also found a relation between the permeability and the drag coefficient which is inversely proportional to one another. As for the difference in behavior it is most striking in the classes of models MPV. That is, the fact that the porosity vary in these models is an additional factor that plays a significant role in flow analysis. Finally, the results proved satisfactory and consistent, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the referred methodology for all applications analyzed in this study.

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The market-assisted land reform (RAAM) has been constituted as an alternative of agrarian reform funded by the Programa Nacional do Crédito Fundiário (PNCF). It is a policy of acquisition, distribution and use of Earth ideologically disseminated and funded by the World Bank in the context of productive insertion of landless workers. Accordingly, this study seeks to analyze the trajectory of rural settlements financed by this policy, seeking to understand what factors promote or limit the process of rural development of those settlements. To do so, take as a reference case study of the Assentamento da Fazenda Paz, in the municipality of Maxaranguape in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. From the methodological point of view, bibliographical and documentary research were used, in addition to visits to the settlement and semi-structured interviews with the settlers, trade union leaders, consultants and technicians linked to the project. Assuming the reports of respondents, initially constructs the hypothesis that informal and formal institutions present in the Assentamento da Fazenda Paz were unable to effectively coordinate the actions of the agents. The results obtained showed the existence of a very complex undertaking, with a total area of 607 hectares and 80 families settled, endowed with good quality water and irrigation infrastructure, with assets of approximately R$ 5 million reais. Experience experienced by the settlers understood the development of complex systems of production and marketing of fruits and vegetables, with an emphasis on the cultivation of papaya in an area of 45 hectares based on modern irrigation system and extensive use of technology. Collective management of production, marketing, revenue and costs stood out as a major challenge for the settlers and their representative organisations, i.e. the Community Association and the cooperative. From this observation it was possible to identify two moments on the trajectory of the project: the first, between 2007-2011, considered by respondents as successful, in which the integration of public policies and abundant input of revenue from the commercialization of the fruits da Paz, mainly through the sale of papaya and pineapple in national and international markets, allowed an average remuneration of R$ 800.00 reais to R$ 1,000 reais seated/monthIn addition to the production of vegetables and other types of products for sale and consumption; the second, from 2012, characterized as a failure, due to the discontinuity of the cultivation, production and marketing of fruits based on the collective bargaining model deployed. Important factors explain the discontinuity of the project, including the model of agriculture implemented, difficulties related to the management of production, marketing and finance the venture, in addition to the breach of trust between the Board of the cooperative and the associates and the distancing of the governmental organizations more directly responsible for the project. It is therefore concluded that we must to rethink rural development as a multidimensional phenomenon, requiring a broad engagement between State and society under the foundations of a territorial development contract

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Complex network analysis is a powerful tool into research of complex systems like brain networks. This work aims to describe the topological changes in neural functional connectivity networks of neocortex and hippocampus during slow-wave sleep (SWS) in animals submited to a novel experience exposure. Slow-wave sleep is an important sleep stage where occurs reverberations of electrical activities patterns of wakeness, playing a fundamental role in memory consolidation. Although its importance there s a lack of studies that characterize the topological dynamical of functional connectivity networks during that sleep stage. There s no studies that describe the topological modifications that novel exposure leads to this networks. We have observed that several topological properties have been modified after novel exposure and this modification remains for a long time. Major part of this changes in topological properties by novel exposure are related to fault tolerance

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Rare earth elements have recently been involved in a range of advanced technologies like microelectronics, membranes for catalytic conversion and applications in gas sensors. In the family of rare earth elements like cerium can play a key role in such industrial applications. However, the high cost of these materials and the control and efficiencies associated processes required for its use in advanced technologies, are a permanent obstacle to its industrial development. In present study was proposed the creation of phases based on rare earth elements that can be used because of its thermal behavior, ionic conduction and catalytic properties. This way were studied two types of structure (ABO3 and A2B2O7), the basis of rare earths, observing their transport properties of ionic and electronic, as well as their catalytic applications in the treatment of methane. For the process of obtaining the first structure, a new synthesis method based on the use of EDTA citrate mixture was used to develop a precursor, which undergone heat treatment at 950 ° C resulted in the development of submicron phase BaCeO3 powders. The catalytic activity of perovskite begins at 450 ° C to achieve complete conversion at 675 ° C, where at this temperature, the catalytic efficiency of the phase is maximum. The evolution of conductivity with temperature for the perovskite phase revealed a series of electrical changes strongly correlated with structural transitions known in the literature. Finally, we can establish a real correlation between the high catalytic activity observed around the temperature of 650 ° C and increasing the oxygen ionic conductivity. For the second structure, showed clearly that it is possible, through chemical processes optimized to separate the rare earth elements and synthesize a pyrochlore phase TR2Ce2O7 particular formula. This "extracted phase" can be obtained directly at low cost, based on complex systems made of natural minerals and tailings, such as monazite. Moreover, this method is applied to matters of "no cost", which is the case of waste, making a preparation method of phases useful for high technology applications

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The new technique for automatic search of the order parameters and critical properties is applied to several well-know physical systems, testing the efficiency of such a procedure, in order to apply it for complex systems in general. The automatic-search method is combined with Monte Carlo simulations, which makes use of a given dynamical rule for the time evolution of the system. In the problems inves¬tigated, the Metropolis and Glauber dynamics produced essentially equivalent results. We present a brief introduction to critical phenomena and phase transitions. We describe the automatic-search method and discuss some previous works, where the method has been applied successfully. We apply the method for the ferromagnetic fsing model, computing the critical fron¬tiers and the magnetization exponent (3 for several geometric lattices. We also apply the method for the site-diluted ferromagnetic Ising model on a square lattice, computing its critical frontier, as well as the magnetization exponent f3 and the susceptibility exponent 7. We verify that the universality class of the system remains unchanged when the site dilution is introduced. We study the problem of long-range bond percolation in a diluted linear chain and discuss the non-extensivity questions inherent to long-range-interaction systems. Finally we present our conclusions and possible extensions of this work

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Continuing development of new materials makes systems lighter and stronger permitting more complex systems to provide more functionality and flexibility that demands a more effective evaluation of their structural health. Smart material technology has become an area of increasing interest in this field. The combination of smart materials and artificial neural networks can be used as an excellent tool for pattern recognition, turning their application adequate for monitoring and fault classification of equipment and structures. In order to identify the fault, the neural network must be trained using a set of solutions to its corresponding forward Variational problem. After the training process, the net can successfully solve the inverse variational problem in the context of monitoring and fault detection because of their pattern recognition and interpolation capabilities. The use of structural frequency response function is a fundamental portion of structural dynamic analysis, and it can be extracted from measured electric impedance through the electromechanical interaction of a piezoceramic and a structure. In this paper we use the FRF obtained by a mathematical model (FEM) in order to generate the training data for the neural networks, and the identification of damage can be done by measuring electric impedance, since suitable data normalization correlates FRF and electrical impedance.