Intercomparison of radiative forcing calculations of stratospheric water vapour and contrails

Seven groups have participated in an intercomparison study of calculations of radiative forcing (RF) due to stratospheric water vapour (SWV) and contrails. A combination of detailed radiative transfer schemes and codes for global-scale calculations have been used, as well as a combination of idealized simulations and more realistic global-scale changes in stratospheric water vapour and contrails. Detailed line-by-line codes agree within about 15 % for longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) RF, except in one case where the difference is 30 %. Since the LW and SW RF due to contrails and SWV changes are of opposite sign, the differences between the models seen in the individual LW and SW components can be either compensated or strengthened in the net RF, and thus in relative terms uncertainties are much larger for the net RF. Some of the models used for global-scale simulations of changes in SWV and contrails differ substantially in RF from the more detailed radiative transfer schemes. For the global-scale calculations we use a method of weighting the results to calculate a best estimate based on their performance compared to the more detailed radiative transfer schemes in the idealized simulations.

Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect(1), although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate(2). Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds(3). Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive(1,2,4). Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model(5,6) for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.

The quasi-nondispersive regimes of long extratropical baroclinic rossby waves over (slowly varying) topography

Actual energy paths of long, extratropical baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean are difficult to describe simply because they depend on the meridional-wavenumber-to-zonal-wavenumber ratio tau, a quantity that is difficult to estimate both observationally and theoretically. This paper shows, however, that this dependence is actually weak over any interval in which the zonal phase speed varies approximately linearly with tau, in which case the propagation becomes quasi-nondispersive (QND) and describable at leading order in terms of environmental conditions (i.e., topography and stratification) alone. As an example, the purely topographic case is shown to possess three main kinds of QND ray paths. The first is a topographic regime in which the rays follow approximately the contours f/h(alpha c) = a constant (alpha(c) is a near constant fixed by the strength of the stratification, f is the Coriolis parameter, and h is the ocean depth). The second and third are, respectively, "fast" and "slow" westward regimes little affected by topography and associated with the first and second bottom-pressure-compensated normal modes studied in previous work by Tailleux and McWilliams. Idealized examples show that actual rays can often be reproduced with reasonable accuracy by replacing the actual dispersion relation by its QND approximation. The topographic regime provides an upper bound ( in general a large overestimate) of the maximum latitudinal excursions of actual rays. The method presented in this paper is interesting for enabling an optimal classification of purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems into simpler idealized QND wave regimes, which helps to rationalize previous empirical findings that the ray paths of long Rossby waves in the presence of mean flow and topography often seem to be independent of the wavenumber orientation. Two important side results are to establish that the baroclinic string function regime of Tyler and K se is only valid over a tiny range of the topographic parameter and that long baroclinic Rossby waves propagating over topography do not obey any two-dimensional potential vorticity conservation principle. Given the importance of the latter principle in geophysical fluid dynamics, the lack of it in this case makes the concept of the QND regimes all the more important, for they are probably the only alternative to provide a simple and economical description of general purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems.

The propagation mechanism of a vortex on the β plane

The propagation velocity and propagation mechanism for vortices on a β plane are determined for a reduced-gravity model by integrating the momentum equations over the β plane. Isolated vortices, vortices in a background current, and initial vortex propagation from rest are studied. The propagation mechanism for isolated anticyclones as well as cyclones, which has been lacking up to now, is presented. It is shown that, to first order, the vortex moves to generate a Coriolis force on the mass anomaly of the vortex to compensate for the force on the vortex due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter. Only the mass anomaly of the vortex is of importance, because the Coriolis force due to the motion of the bulk of the layer moving with the vortex is almost fully compensated by the Coriolis force on the motion of the exterior flow. Because the mass anomaly of a cyclone is negative the force and acceleration have opposite sign. The role of dipolar structures in steadily moving vortices is discussed, and it is shown that their overall structure is fixed by the steady westward motion of the mass anomaly. Furthermore, it is shown that reduced-gravity vortices are not advected with a background flow. The reason for this behavior is that the background flow changes the ambient vorticity gradient such that the vortex obtains an extra self-propagation term that exactly cancels the advection by the background flow. Last, it is shown that a vortex initially at rest will accelerate equatorward first, after which a westward motion is generated. This result is independent of the sign of the vortex.

Effects of triazole and strobilurin fungicide programmes, with and without late-season nitrogen fertiliser, on the baking quality of Malacca winter wheat

Field experiments were conducted over 3 years to study the effect of applying triazole and strobilurin fungicides on the bread-making quality of Malacca winter wheat. Averaged over all years the application of a fungicide programme increased yields, particularly when strobilurin fungicides were applied. Reductions in protein concentration, sulphur concentration, Hageberg failing number and loaf volumes also occurred as the amount of fungicide applied increased. However, there were no deleterious effects of fungicide application on sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) sedimentation volumes, N:S ratios or dough theology. Effects of fungicide application on bread-making quality were not product specific. Therefore, it appears that new mechanisms to explain strobilurin effects on bread-making quality do not need to be invoked. Where reductions in protein concentration did occur they could be compensated for by a late-season application of nitrogen either as granular ammonium nitrate at flag leaf emergence or foliar urea at anthesis. These applications, however, sometimes increased the N:S ratio of the extracted flour and failed to improve loaf volume. Multiple regression analysis revealed that main effects of year, flour protein concentration and N:S ratio could explain 93% of the variance in loaf volume caused by season, fungicide and nitrogen treatments. However, an equally good fit was achieved by just including sulphur concentration with year. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of adding picoxystrobin, azoxystrobin and nitrogen to a triazole programme on disease control, flag leaf senescence, yield and grain quality of winter wheat

The effect of adding strobilurins to a triazole (epoxiconazole) fungicide programme on the quality of a range of wheat cultivars was assessed in field experiments in three successive years. Strobilurin was applied at just flag leaf emergence (azoxystrobin) or at the start of stem extension (azoxystrobin or picoxystrobin) and again at flag leaf emergence or at flag leaf emergence and again at ear emergence (azoxystrobin). All strobilurin treatments reduced disease levels, delayed senescence of the flag leaf and consistently increased yields, thousand grain weight and specific weight. Reductions in Hagberg falling number were observed, even by fungicide applications at the start of stem extension, but effects were small compared to the variation among cultivars. Application of fungicide (triazole or strobilurin) before ear emergence increased the amount of blackpoint, but this was partly countered by applying azoxystrobin at ear emergence. The effect of fungicide on protein concentration differed over seasons and cultivar. Where they occurred. small reductions in protein concentration could be compensated for by extra application of nitrogen as foliar urea at anthesis. Foliar urea (40 kg N ha(-1)) applied at anthesis also improved Hagberg failing number and reduced blackpoint in one of the growing seasons. In one season, the effect of foliar urea at anthesis was compared with applications of granular fertiliser at flag leaf emergence. The granular treatment produced grain with more concentrated protein, while the later, foliar application produced higher specific weights. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of triazole and strobilurin fungicide programmes, with and without late-season nitrogen fertiliser, on the baking quality of Malacca winter wheat

Field experiments were conducted over 3 years to study the effect of applying triazole and strobilurin fungicides on the bread-making quality of Malacca winter wheat. Averaged over all years the application of a fungicide programme increased yields, particularly when strobilurin fungicides were applied. Reductions in protein concentration, sulphur concentration, Hageberg failing number and loaf volumes also occurred as the amount of fungicide applied increased. However, there were no deleterious effects of fungicide application on sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) sedimentation volumes, N:S ratios or dough theology. Effects of fungicide application on bread-making quality were not product specific. Therefore, it appears that new mechanisms to explain strobilurin effects on bread-making quality do not need to be invoked. Where reductions in protein concentration did occur they could be compensated for by a late-season application of nitrogen either as granular ammonium nitrate at flag leaf emergence or foliar urea at anthesis. These applications, however, sometimes increased the N:S ratio of the extracted flour and failed to improve loaf volume. Multiple regression analysis revealed that main effects of year, flour protein concentration and N:S ratio could explain 93% of the variance in loaf volume caused by season, fungicide and nitrogen treatments. However, an equally good fit was achieved by just including sulphur concentration with year. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altered expression of cell cycle proteins and prolonged duration of cardiac myocyte hyperplasia in p27KIP1 knockout mice

The precise role of cell cycle-dependent molecules in controlling the switch from cardiac myocyte hyperplasia to hypertrophy remains to be determined. We report that loss of p27(KIP1) in the mouse results in a significant increase in heart size and in the total number of cardiac myocytes. In comparison to p27(KIP1)+/+ myocytes, the percentage of neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- myocytes in S phase was increased significantly, concomitant with a significant decrease in the percentage of G(0)/G(1) cells. The expressions of proliferating cell nuclear antigen, G(1)/S and G(2)/M phase-acting cyclins, and cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) were upregulated significantly in ventricular tissue obtained from early neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- mice, concomitant with a substantial decrease in the expressions of G(1) phase-acting cyclins and CDKs. Furthermore, mRNA expressions of the embryonic genes atrial natriuretic factor and alpha-skeletal actin were detectable at significant levels in neonatal and adult p27(KIP1)-/- mouse hearts but were undetectable in p27(KIP1)+/+ hearts. In addition, loss of p27(KIP1) was not compensated for by the upregulation of other CDK inhibitors. Thus, the loss of p27(KIP1) results in prolonged proliferation of the mouse cardiac myocyte and perturbation of myocyte hypertrophy.

B-spline neural network based digital baseband predistorter solution using the inverse of De Boor algorithm

In this paper a new nonlinear digital baseband predistorter design is introduced based on direct learning, together with a new Wiener system modeling approach for the high power amplifiers (HPA) based on the B-spline neural network. The contribution is twofold. Firstly, by assuming that the nonlinearity in the HPA is mainly dependent on the input signal amplitude the complex valued nonlinear static function is represented by two real valued B-spline neural networks, one for the amplitude distortion and another for the phase shift. The Gauss-Newton algorithm is applied for the parameter estimation, in which the De Boor recursion is employed to calculate both the B-spline curve and the first order derivatives. Secondly, we derive the predistorter algorithm calculating the inverse of the complex valued nonlinear static function according to B-spline neural network based Wiener models. The inverse of the amplitude and phase shift distortion are then computed and compensated using the identified phase shift model. Numerical examples have been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km. The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10–50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency, precipitation intensity, and quantiles of the frequency distribution. For mean precipitation, the models reproduce the characteristics of the annual cycle and the spatial distribution. The domain mean bias varies between −23% and +3% in winter and between −27% and −5% in summer. Larger errors are found for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16–42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models. Similar intermodel differences are found for other European subregions. Interestingly, the model errors are very similar between the two models with the same dynamical core (but different parameterizations) and they differ considerably between the two models with similar parameterizations (but different dynamics). Despite considerable biases, the models reproduce prominent mesoscale features of heavy precipitation, which is a promising result for their use in climate change downscaling over complex topography.

The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening

Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as ‘dimming’ while positive trends have become known as ‘brightening’. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.

Toeplitz operators with distributional symbols on Bergman spaces

We study the boundedness and compactness of Toeplitz operators Ta on Bergman spaces , 1 < p < ∞. The novelty is that we allow distributional symbols. It turns out that the belonging of the symbol to a weighted Sobolev space of negative order is sufficient for the boundedness of Ta. We show the natural relation of the hyperbolic geometry of the disc and the order of the distribution. A corresponding sufficient condition for the compactness is also derived.

New results and open problems on Toeplitz operators in Bergman spaces

We discuss some of the recent progress in the field of Toeplitz operators acting on Bergman spaces of the unit disk, formulate some new results, and describe a list of open problems -- concerning boundedness, compactness and Fredholm properties -- which was presented at the conference "Recent Advances in Function Related Operator Theory'' in Puerto Rico in March 2010.

Spectral theory of Toeplitz and Hankel operators on the Bergman space A1

The Fredholm properties of Toeplitz operators on the Bergman space A2 have been well-known for continuous symbols since the 1970s. We investigate the case p=1 with continuous symbols under a mild additional condition, namely that of the logarithmic vanishing mean oscillation in the Bergman metric. Most differences are related to boundedness properties of Toeplitz operators acting on Ap that arise when we no longer have 1compactness of Hankel operators on A1.