Short-term effects of gamma ray bursts on Earth

The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at planet`s surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the gamma radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atmospheres with oxygen levels ranging from 10(-5) to 1 of the present atmospheric level, representing different moments in the oxygen rise history. Ecological consequences and some strategies to estimate their importance are outlined.

Short-term movements of the South American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus) in southeastern Brazil

Ecological studies of movements in animals require extensive knowledge of direction, distance and frequency of movements. The purpose of this study was to describe the daily and seasonal movements in a population of the South American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus. The study population inhabits a cerrado area in southeastern Brazil. Snakes were tracked with externally attached radio-transmitters and thread bobbins. Larger animals tended to make more extensive daily movements, moving further from the initial site of capture. There were no differences in average daily movements between sexes. Site fidelity was higher in the dry season for both sexes. Both sexes moved distances twice as long as those calculated by drawing a straight line between consecutive points. The movement pattern of C. durissus seemed to be similar to that observed in other tropical pit vipers, such as species of the genus Bothrops.

Short-Term Modulation of Extracellular Signal-Regulated Kinase 1/2 and Stress-Activated Protein Kinase/c-Jun NH2-Terminal Kinase in Pancreatic Islets by Glucose and Palmitate Possible Involvement of Ceramide

Objectives: The effect of glucose and palmitate on the phosphorylation of proteins associated with cell growth and survival (extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 [ERK1/2] and stress-activated protein kinase/c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase [SAPK/JNK]) and on the expression of immediate early genes was investigated. Methods: Groups of freshly isolated rat pancreatic islets were incubated in 10-mmol/L glucose with palmitate, LY294002, or fumonisin B1 for the measurement of the phosphorylation and the content of ERK1/2, JNK/SAPK, and v-akt murine thymoma viral oncongene (AKT) (serine 473) by immunoblotting. The expressions of the immediate early genes, c-fos and c-jun, were evaluated by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Results: Glucose at 10 mmol/L induced ERK1/2 and AKT phosphorylations and decreased SAPK/JNK phosphorylation. Palmitate (0.1 mmol/L) abolished the glucose effect on ERK1/2, AKT, and SAPK/JNK phosphorylations. LY294002 caused a similar effect. The inhibitory effect of palmitate on glucose-induced ERK1/2 and AKT phosphorylation changes was not observed in the presence of fumonisin B1. Glucose increased c-fos and decreased c-jun expressions. Palmitate and LY294002 abolished these latter glucose effects. The presence of fumonisin B1 abolished the effect induced by palmitate on c-jun expression. Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term changes of mitogen-activated protein kinase and AKT signaling pathways and c-fos and c-jun expressions caused by glucose are abolished by palmitate through phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase inhibition via ceramide synthesis.

Evidence that L-glutamine is better than L-alanine as gluconeogenic substrate in perfused liver of weaned fasted rats submitted to short-term insulin-induced hypoglycaemia

Gluconeogenesis in livers from overnight fasted weaned rats submitted to short-term insulin-induced hypoglycaemia (IIH) was investigated. For this purpose, a condition of hyperinsulinemia/hypoglycaemia was obtained with an intraperitoneal (ip) injection of regular insulin (1.0 U kg(-1)). Control group (COG group) received ip saline. The studies were performed 30 min after insulin (IIH group) or saline (COG group) injection. The livers from IIH and COG rats were perfused with L-alanine (5 mM), L-lactate (2 mM)), L-glutamine (10 mM) or glycerol (2 mM). Hepatic glucose, L-lactate and pyruvate production from L-alanine was not affected by IIH. In agreement with this result, the hepatic ability in producing glucose from L-lactate or glycerol remained unchanged (IIH group vs. COG group). However, livers from IIH rats showed higher glucose production from L-glutamine than livers front COG rats and, in the IIH rats, the production of glucose from L-glutamine was higher than that front L-alanine. The higher glucose production in livers from the IIH group. when compared with the COG group was due to its entrance further on gluconeogenic pathway. Taken together. the results suggest that L-glutamine is better than L-alanine, as gluconeogenic substrate in livers of hypoglyceaemic weaned rats. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.

Short-term induction of thrombocytopenia delays periodontal healing in rats with periodontal disease: participation of endostatin and vascular endothelial growth factor

Background and Objective: Platelets contain factors, including VEGF and endostatin, that can modulate the healing process. We evaluated the effects of severe thrombocytopenia on periodontal healing in rats and determined the contribution of VEGF and endostatin to the healing process. Material and Methods: Rats were distributed into three test groups and two control groups. Cotton ligatures were placed at the gingival margin level of the lower first molar in the test groups. Sham-operated rats and rats in one of the periodontitis groups were killed 15 days later. Rats in the remaining two periodontitis groups had the ligatures removed in order to study the spontaneous recovery from the periodontal disease 15 days later, and these rats were treated with rabbit antiplatelet serum, in order to induce thrombocytopenia, or normal rabbit serum. An additional group without ligatures received antiplatet serum in the same period. Results: After ligature removal, rats treated with normal rabbit serum showed reduced myeloperoxidase activity, decreased alveolar bone loss and increased numbers of blood vessels. Thrombocytopenia caused a delay in alveolar bone regeneration, a decrease in the number of vessels and a modest decrease in myeloperoxidase activity. In the rats with periodontitis, serum endostatin concentrations were slightly decreased and serum VEGF remained unchanged compared with sham-operated animals. After ligature removal, a significant VEGF increase and endostatin decrease were observed in the rats treated with normal rabbit serum. Thrombocytopenia led to a dramatic fall in both VEGF and endostatin concentrations. Conclusion: Thrombocytopenia leads to a delay of periodontal healing in the situation of experimental periodontitis, which might be mediated in part by a decrease in the serum concentration of VEGF and endostatin derived from the platelets. However, other factors derived from the platelets may also have contributed to a delay of periodontal healing in the rats with thrombocytopenia.

On the unification of long-term survival models

In this paper we extend the long-term survival model proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M.-H., Ibrahim, J.G., Sinha, D., 1999. A new Bayesian model for survival data with a surviving fraction. journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 909-919] via the generating function of a real sequence introduced by Feller [Feller, W., 1968. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, third ed., vol. 1, Wiley, New York]. A direct consequence of this new formulation is the unification of the long-term survival models proposed by Berkson and Gage [Berkson, J., Gage, R.P., 1952. Survival cure for cancer patients following treatment. journal of the American Statistical Association 47, 501-515] and Chen et al. (see citation above). Also, we show that the long-term survival function formulated in this paper satisfies the proportional hazards property if, and only if, the number of competing causes related to the occurrence of an event of interest follows a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a more flexible model than the one proposed by Yin and Ibrahim [Yin, G., Ibrahim, J.G., 2005. Cure rate models: A unified approach. The Canadian journal of Statistics 33, 559-570] is introduced and, motivated by Feller`s results, a very useful competing index is defined. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sodium Tungstate on Some Biochemical Parameters of the Parotid Salivary Gland of Streptozotocin-Induced Diabetic Rats: A Short-Term Study

Several studies have shown the antidiabetic properties of sodium tungstate. In this study, we evaluated some biochemical parameters of the parotid salivary gland of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats treated with sodium tungstate solution (2 mg/ml). The studied groups were: untreated control (UC), treated control (TC), untreated diabetic (UD), and treated diabetic (TD). After 2 and 6 weeks of treatment, parotid gland was removed and total protein and sialic acid (free and total) concentration and amylase and peroxidase activities were determined. Data were compared by variance analysis and Tukey test (p < 0.05). The sodium tungstate treatment modestly decreased the glycemia of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. At week 2 of the study, parotid gland of diabetic rats presented a reduction of total protein concentration (55%) and an increase of amylase (120%) and peroxidase (160%) activities, free (150%) and total (170%) sialic acid concentration. No alteration in the evaluated parameters at week 6 of the study was observed. Sodium tungstate presented no significant effect in parotid gland. Our results suggest that diabetes causes initial modification in biochemical composition of parotid. However, this gland showed a recovery capacity after 6 week of the experimental time. Sodium tungstate has no effect in peripheral tissues, such as salivary glands.

Education and Earnings for Poverty Reduction : Short-Term Evidence of Pro-Poor Growth from the Mexican Oportunidades Program

Education, as an indispensable component of human capital, has been acknowledged to play a critical role in economic growth, which is theoretically elaborated by human capital theory and empirically confirmed by evidence from different parts of the world. The educational impact on growth is especially valuable and meaningful when it is for the sake of poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth. The paper re-explores the precious link between human capital development and poverty reduction by investigating the causal effect of education accumulation on earnings enhancement for anti-poverty and pro-poor growth. The analysis takes the evidence from a well-known conditional cash transfer (CCT) program — Oportunidades in Mexico. Aiming at alleviating poverty and promoting a better future by investing in human capital for children and youth in poverty, this CCT program has been recognized producing significant outcomes. The study investigates a short-term impact of education on earnings of the economically disadvantaged youth, taking the data of both the program’s treated and untreated youth from urban areas in Mexico from 2002 to 2004. Two econometric techniques, i.e. difference-in-differences and difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach are applied for estimation. The empirical analysis first identifies that youth who under the program’s schooling intervention possess an advantage in educational attainment over their non-intervention peers; with this identification of education discrepancy as a prerequisite, further results then present that earnings of the education advantaged youth increase at a higher rate about 20 percent than earnings of their education disadvantaged peers over the two years. This result indicates a confirmation that education accumulation for the economically disadvantaged young has a positive impact on their earnings enhancement and thus inferring a contribution to poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth.

A SPATIAL COMPARISON OF SHORT AND LONG TERM MIGRATION TRENDS IN CHINA

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A Spatial Comparison of Short and Long Term Migration Trends in China

China’s floating population, those individuals who have migrated between counties or provinces for a period of longer than 6 months, account for 79 million individuals. If intracounty migration is also included, the number jumps to 145 million individuals or over 11% of the total population. This study examines the geographical differences in short and long term migration using ArcGIS to manipulate the spatial GIS data. The study shows that both short and long term migration (in absolute numbers) occurs more frequently near cities and in coastal regions. However, by normalizing the data by population size, the study eliminates the problems of population size on the size of the migrants. Using this normalized data, the study finds that western and northern counties have a large number of migrants present relative to the size of the population. Determining where this floating population migrates helps explain regional inequalities in employment opportunities.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

The role of bond covenants and short-term debt: evidence from Brazil

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre covenants e alavancagem financeira no curto e longo prazo com oportunidades de crescimento. A partir de uma amostra de 159 debêntures, encontramos evidência de que: 1) Covenants e dívida de curto-prazo podem ser considerados substitutos na atenuação do conflito de agência, uma vez que apresentaram relação negativa e significante e; 2) A relação negativa existente entre dívida de curto prazo e oportunidades de crescimento pode ser reduzida através da utilização de covenants.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.