A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Petrology and textural classification of the Jericho kimberlite, northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada

The paper presents data on petrology, bulk rock and mineral compositions, and textural classification of the Middle Jurassic Jericho kimberlite (Slave craton, Canada). The kimberlite was emplaced as three steep-sided pipes in granite that was overlain by limestones and minor soft sediments. The pipes are infilled with hypabyssal and pyroclastic kimberlites and connected to a satellite pipe by a dyke. The Jericho kimberlite is classified as a Group Ia, lacking groundmass tetraferriphlogopite and containing monticellite pseudomorphs. The kimberlite formed, during several consecutive emplacement events of compositionally different batches of kimberlite magma. Core-logging and thin-section observations identified at least two phases of hypabyssal kimberlites and three phases of pyroclastic kimberlites. Hypabyssal kimberlites intruded as a main dyke (HK1) and as late small-volume aphanitic and vesicular dykes. Massive pyroclastic kimberlite (MPK1) predominantly filled the northern and southern lobes of the pipe and formed from magma different from the HK1 magma. The MPK1 magma crystallized Ti-, Fe-, and Cr-rich phlogopite without rims of barian phlogopite, and clinopyroxene and spinel without atoll structures. MPK1 textures, superficially reminiscent of tuffisitic kimberlite, are caused by pervasive contamination by granite xenoliths. The next explosive events filled the central lobe with two varieties of pyroclastic kimberlite: (1) massive and (2) weakly bedded, normally graded pyroclastic kimberlite. The geology of the Jericho pipe differs from the geology of South African or the Prairie kimberlites, but may resemble Lac de Gras pipes, in which deeper erosion removed upper fades of resedimented kimberlites.

Correlation of plasma IGF-I concentrations and growth rate in aquacultured finfish: a tool for assessing the potential of new diets

A recently developed radioimmunoassay (RIA) for measuring insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) in a variety of fish species was used to investigate the correlation between growth rate and circulating IGF-I concentrations of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Southern Bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii). Plasma IGF-I concentration significantly increased with increasing ration size in barramundi and IGF-I concentration was positively correlated to growth rates obtained in Atlantic salmon (r2=0.67) and barramundi (r2=0.65) when fed a variety of diet formulations. IGF-I was also positively correlated to protein concentration (r2=0.59). This evidence suggested that measuring IGF-I concentration may provide a useful tool for monitoring fish growth rate and also as a method to rapidly assess different aquaculture diets. However, no such correlation was demonstrated in the tuna study probably due to seasonal cooling of sea surface temperature shortly before blood was sampled. Thus, some recommendations for the design and sampling strategy of nutritional trials where IGF-I concentrations are measured are discussed

Rhizoctonia crown and root rot of the pasture legume, sulla (Hedysarum coronarium)

Rhizoctonia solani AG-2-2 was isolated from wilting and dying plants of sulla (Hedysarum coronarium), which is currently being assessed in eastern and southern Australia for its potential as a pasture and forage legume. Infected plants in the field had extensive rotting of the taproot, lateral roots and crown. Koch's postulates were fulfilled using three inoculation methods. The disease may pose a considerable threat to the potential use of H. coronarium in the dryland, grazing farming systems of Australia, with resistance offering the most viable option for minimising its impact.

Environmental change and human history in the Jabal Harun area, Jordan

The research is related to the Finnish Jabal Harun Project (FJHP), which is part of the research unit directed by Professor Jaakko Frösén. The project consists of two interrelated parts: the excavation of a Byzantine monastery/pilgrimage centre on Jabal Harun, and a multiperiod archaeological survey of the surrounding landscape. It is generally held that the Near Eastern landscape has been modified by millennia of human habitation and activity. Past climatic changes and human activities could be expected to have significantly changed also the landscape of the Jabal Harun area. Therefore it was considered that a study of erosion in the Jabal Harun area could shed light on the environmental and human history of the area. It was hoped that it would be possible to connect the results of the sedimentological studies either to wider climatic changes in the Near East, or to archaeologically observable periods of human activity and land use. As evidence of some archaeological periods is completely missing from the Jabal Harun area, it was also of interest whether catastrophic erosion or unfavourable environmental change, caused either by natural forces or by human agency, could explain the gaps in the archaeological record. Changes in climate and/or land-use were expected to be reflected in the sedimentary record. The field research, carried out as part of the FJHP survey fieldwork, included the mapping of wadi terraces and cleaning of sediment profiles which were recorded and sampled for laboratory analyses of facies and lithology. To obtain a chronology for the sedimentation and erosion phases also OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dating samples were collected. The results were compared to the record of the Near Eastern palaeoclimate, and to data from geoarchaeological studies in central and southern Jordan. The picture of the environmental development was then compared to the human history in the area, based on archaeological evidence from the FJHP survey and the published archaeological research in the Petra region, and the question of the relationship between human activity and environmental change was critically discussed. Using the palaeoclimatic data and the results from geoarchaeological studies it was possible to outline the environmental development in the Jabal Harun area from the Pleistocene to the present.It is appears that there was a phase of accumulation of sediment before the Middle Palaeolithic period, possibly related to tectonic movement. This phase was later followed by erosion, tentatively suggested to have taken place during the Upper Palaeolithic. A period of wadi aggradation probably occurred during the Late Glacial and continued until the end of the Pleistocene, followed by significant channel degradation, attributed to increased rainfall during the Early Holocene. It seems that during the later Holocene channel incision has been dominant in the Jabal Harûn area although there have been also small-scale channel aggradation phases, two of which were OSL-dated to around 4000-3000 BP and 2400-2000 BP. As there is no evidence of tectonic movements in the Jabal Harun area after the early Pleistocene, it is suggested that climate change and human activity have been the major causes of environmental change in the area. At a brief glance it seems that many of the changes in the settlement and land use in the Jabal Harun area can be explained by climatic and environmental conditions. However, the responses of human societies to environmental change are dependent on many factors. Therefore an evaluation of the significance of environmental, cultural, socio-economic and political factors is needed to decide whether certain phenomena are environmentally induced. Comparison with the wider Petra region is also needed to judge whether the phenomena are characteristic of the Jabal Harun area only, or can they be connected to social, political and economic development over a wider area.

Concordant molecular and phenotypic data delineate new taxonomy and conservation priorities for the endangered mountain yellow-legged frog

The mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa sensu lato, once abundant in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada, and the disjunct Transverse Ranges of southern California, has declined precipitously throughout its range, even though most of its habitat is protected. The species is now extinct in Nevada and reduced to tiny remnants in southern California, where as a distinct population segment, it is classified as Endangered. Introduced predators (trout), air pollution and an infectious disease (chytridiomycosis) threaten remaining populations. A Bayesian analysis of 1901 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA confirms the presence of two deeply divergent clades that come into near contact in the Sierra Nevada. Morphological studies of museum specimens and analysis of acoustic data show that the two major mtDNA clades are readily differentiated phenotypically. Accordingly, we recognize two species, Rana sierrae, in the northern and central Sierra Nevada, and R. muscosa, in the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. Existing data indicate no range overlap. These results have important implications for the conservation of these two species as they illuminate a profound mismatch between the current delineation of the distinct population segments (southern California vs. Sierra Nevada) and actual species boundaries. For example, our study finds that remnant populations of R. muscosa exist in both the southern Sierra Nevada and the mountains of southern California, which may broaden options for management. In addition, despite the fact that only the southern California populations are listed as Endangered, surveys conducted since 1995 at 225 historic (1899-1994) localities from museum collections show that 93.3% (n=146) of R. sierrae populations and 95.2% (n=79) of R. muscosa populations are extinct. Evidence presented here underscores the need for revision of protected population status to include both species throughout their ranges.

New annual and short-lived perennial pasture legumes for Australian agriculture--15 years of revolution

Fifteen years ago subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) and annual medics (Medicago spp.) dominated annual pasture legume sowings in southern Australia, while limited pasture legume options existed for cropping areas of subtropical Australia. Since then a number of sustainability and economic challenges to existing farming systems have emerged, exposing shortcomings in these species and the lack of legume biodiversity. Public breeding institutions have responded to these challenges by developing 58 new annual and short-lived perennial pasture legumes with adaptation to both existing and new farming systems. This has involved commercialisation of new species and overcoming deficiencies in traditional species. Traits incorporated in legumes of Mediterranean Basin origin for the Mediterranean, temperate and southern subtropical climates of Australia include deeper root systems, protection from false breaks (germination-inducing rainfall events followed by death from drought), a range of hardseed levels, acid-soil tolerant root nodule symbioses, tolerance to pests and diseases and provision of lower cost seed through ease of seed harvesting and processing. Ten new species, French serradella (Ornithopus sativus), biserrula (Biserrula pelecinus), sulla (Hedysarum coronarium), gland (Trifolium glanduliferum), arrowleaf (Trifolium vesiculosum), eastern star (Trifolium dasyurum) and crimson (Trifolium incarnatum) clovers and sphere (Medicago sphaerocarpos), button (Medicago orbicularis) and hybrid disc (Medicago tornata x Medicago littoralis) medics have been commercialised. Improved cultivars have also been developed of subterranean (T. subterraneum), balansa (Trifolium michelianum), rose (Trifolium hirtum), Persian (Trifolium resupinatum) and purple (Trifolium purpureum) clovers, burr (Medicago polymorpha), strand (M. littoralis), snail (Medicago scutellata) and barrel (Medicago truncatula) medics and yellow serradella (Ornithopus compressus). New tropical legumes for pasture phases in subtropical cropping areas include butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea), burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum) and perennial lablab (Lablab purpureus). Other species and cultivars of Mediterranean species are likely to be released soon. The contributions of genetic resources, rhizobiology, pasture ecology and agronomy, plant pathology, entomology, plant chemistry and animal science have been paramount to this success. A farmer survey in Western Australia has shown widespread adoption of the new pasture legumes, while adoption of new tropical legumes has also been high in cropping areas of the subtropics. This trend is likely to increase due to the increasing cost of inorganic nitrogen, the need to combat herbicide-resistant crop weeds and improved livestock prices. Mixtures of these legumes allows for more robust pastures buffered against variable seasons, soils, pests, diseases and management decisions. This paper discusses development of the new pasture legumes, their potential use and deficiencies in the current suite. 'Ground–breaking Stuff’- Proceedings of the 13th Australian Society of Agronomy Conference, 10-14 September 2006, Perth, Western Australia.

Two new species and a new Australian record of Bactrocera Macquart (Diptera : Tephritidae : Dacinae) from Northern Queensland, Torres Strait and Papua New Guinea

Bactrocera (Bactrocera) speewahensis Fay & Hancock sp. n. is described from northern Queensland and B. (B.) torresiae Huxham & Hancock sp. n. is described from Boigu, Saibai and Dauan islands in Torres Strait and southern Papua New Guinea. Bactrocera (B.) nigrovittata Drew is newly recorded from Australia. All records are of male flies responding to chemical lures.

Weed species richness, density and relative abundance on farms in the subtropical grain region of Australia

Weed management is one of the most important economic and agronomic issues facing farmers in Australia's grain regions. Weed species occurrence and abundance was monitored between 1997 and 2000 on 46 paddocks (sites) across 18 commercial farms located in the Northern Grain Region. The sites generally fell within 4 disjunct regions, from south to north: Liverpool Plains, Moree, Goondiwindi and Kingaroy. While high species richness was found (139 species or species groups), only 8 species occurred in all 4 regions and many (56 species) only occurred at 1 site or region. No species were observed at every site but 7 species (Sonchus spp., Avena spp., Conyza spp., Echinochloa spp., Convolvulus erubescens, Phalaris spp. and Lactuca serriola) were recorded on more than 70% of sites. The average number of species observed within crops after treatment and before harvest was less than 13. Species richness tended to be higher in winter pulse crops, cotton and in fallows, but overall was similar at the different sampling seasons (summer v. winter). Separate species assemblages associated with the Goondiwindi and Kingaroy regions were identified by correspondence analysis but these appeared to form no logical functional group. The species richness and density was generally low, demonstrating that farmers are managing weed populations effectively in both summer and winter cropping phases. Despite the apparent adoption of conservation tillage, an increase in opportunity cropping and the diversity of crops grown (13) there was no obvious effect of management practices on weed species richness or relative abundance. Avena spp. and Sonchus spp. were 2 of the most dominant weeds, particularly in central and southern latitudes of the region; Amaranthus spp. and Raphanus raphanistrum were the most abundant species in the northern part of the region. The ubiquity of these and other species shows that continued vigilance is required to suppress weeds as a management issue.

Foods of pigeons and doves in fragmented landscapes of subtropical eastern Australia

We report dietary items of pigeons and doves from northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, obtained from opportunistic sampling of the gut contents of dead birds and observing foraging birds. Most records were from fragmented rainforest habitats, which now support abundant invasive fleshy-fruited plants. The fruits and seeds of invasive plants, particularly Camphor Laurel Cinnamomum camphora, formed the dominant food of several of the species sampled, although in some cases these birds appear to destroy most of the ingested seeds in the gizzard, thereby not contributing to weed dispersal. We also describe the first records of White-headed Pigeons Columba leucomela eating flowers and Brown Cuckoo-Doves Macropygia amboinensis eating flower buds. Camphor Laurel, via flowers, green and ripe fruits, and seeds, provided food for White-headed Pigeons in the Goolmangar district of New South Wales throughout the entire year. Seventy percent of the plant species whose fruits and seeds were recovered from the gut had not previously been recorded as food items for those bird species, illustrating how little is known about the diets of pigeons and doves in fragmented Australian landscapes.

Genetic control of wheat quality: interactions between chromosomal regions determining protein content and composition, dough rheology, and sponge and dough baking properties

While the genetic control of wheat processing characteristics such as dough rheology is well understood, limited information is available concerning the genetic control of baking parameters, particularly sponge and dough (S&D) baking. In this study, a quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis was performed using a population of doubled haploid lines derived from a cross between Australian cultivars Kukri x Janz grown at sites across different Australian wheat production zones (Queensland in 2001 and 2002 and Southern and Northern New South Wales in 2003) in order to examine the genetic control of protein content, protein expression, dough rheology and sponge and dough baking performance. The study highlighted the inconsistent genetic control of protein content across the test sites, with only two loci (3A and 7A) showing QTL at three of the five sites. Dough rheology QTL were highly consistent across the 5 sites, with major effects associated with the Glu-B1 and Glu-D1 loci. The Glu-D1 5 + 10 allele had consistent effects on S&D properties across sites; however, there was no evidence for a positive effect of the high dough strength Glu-B1-al allele at Glu-B1. A second locus on 5D had positive effects on S&D baking at three of five sites. This study demonstrated that dough rheology measurements were poor predictors of S&D quality. In the absence of robust predictive tests, high heritability values for S&D demonstrate that direct selection is the current best option for achieving genetic gain in this product category.

Row spacing and planting density effects on the growth and yield of sugarcane. 3. Responses with different cultivars.

The promotion of controlled traffic (matching wheel and row spacing) in the Australian sugar industry is necessitating a widening of row spacing beyond the standard 1.5 m. As all cultivars grown in the Australian industry have been selected under the standard row spacing there are concerns that at least some cultivars may not be suitable for wider rows. To address this issue, experiments were established in northern and southern Queensland in which cultivars, with different growth characteristics, recommended for each region, were grown under a range of different row configurations. In the northern Queensland experiment at Gordonvale, cultivars Q187((sic)), Q200((sic)), Q201((sic)), and Q218((sic)) were grown in 1.5-m single rows, 1.8-m single rows, 1.8-m dual rows (50 cm between duals), and 2.3-m dual rows (80 cm between duals). In the southern Queensland experiment at Farnsfield, cvv. Q138, Q205((sic)), Q222((sic)) and Q188((sic)) were also grown in 1.5-m single rows, 1.8-m single rows, 1.8-m dual rows (50 cm between duals), while 1.8-m-wide throat planted single row and 2.0-m dual row (80 cm between duals) configurations were also included. There was no difference in yield between the different row configurations at Farnsfield but there was a significant row configuration x cultivar interaction at Gordonvale due to good yields in 1.8-m single and dual rows with Q201((sic)) and poor yields with Q200((sic)) at the same row spacings. There was no significant difference between the two cultivars in 1.5-m single and 2.3-m dual rows. The experiments once again demonstrated the compensatory capacity that exists in sugarcane to manipulate stalk number and individual stalk weight as a means of producing similar yields across a range of row configurations and planting densities. There was evidence of different growth patterns between cultivars in response to different row configurations (viz. propensity to tiller, susceptibility to lodging, ability to compensate between stalk number and stalk weight), suggesting that there may be genetic differences in response to row configuration. It is argued that there is a need to evaluate potential cultivars under a wider range of row configurations than the standard 1.5-m single rows. Cultivars that perform well in row configurations ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 m are essential if the adverse effects of soil compaction are to be managed through the adoption of controlled traffic.

Genetic diversity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) in the Baltic Sea

We described the patterns and extent of microsatellite DNA variation in historical and present-day Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) stocks in the Baltic Sea and neighbouring areas, and in European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) ecotypes, populations and run-timing types in Finland. Moreover, the amount and pattern of genetic diversity in historical salmon populations before human impact were described, and the proportion of diversity maintained in the present hatchery stocks evaluated. Salmon populations in the Baltic Sea were, on average, significantly less variable than eastern Atlantic populations, and the diversity of landlocked populations (Lakes Vänern, Saimaa, Onega and Ladoga) was in turn significantly lower than that of anadromous salmon populations in the Baltic Sea populations. Within the Baltic Sea, the anadromous populations of Atlantic salmon formed three clear groups, corresponding to the northern (Gulf of Bothnia), eastern (Gulf of Finland and eastern Baltic Main Basin) and southern (western Baltic Main Basin) regions. Based on microsatellite data, three salmon population groups in the Baltic Sea were considered potentially different colonization lineages. In short- and long-term breeding programmes of Atlantic salmon, the average observed rate of loss of alleles was 4.9% and 2.0% per generation and the average rate of loss of heterozygosity was 1.4% and 1% per generation, respectively. When comparing the genetic parameters of stocks before and after hatchery breeding of several successive generations (Rivers Iijoki and Oulujoki), statistically significant changes in allele frequencies were common, while large wild stock in the Teno River has remained temporally very stable over 56 years. Despite the observed losses of genetic diversity in broodstock breeding, a large proportion of the genetic resources of the extirpated stocks are still conserved in the broodstocks. Genetic differentiation among European whitefish ecotypes was generally low, thus giving support to the hypothesis of one native European whitefish species in Fennoscandia. Among the ecotypes, the northern, large sparsely rakered, bottom-dwelling whitefish was the most unique. The known genetic differences in quantitative traits have thus either developed independently of potential phylogenetic lineages, or the lineages have mixed and the quantitative traits of the ecotypes, like gill-raker number, have later changed according to environment and selection pressures. Overall, genetic distances between the anadromous whitefish populations along the Finnish coast, especially in the Bothnian Bay area, were small. Wild whitefish populations studied had slightly higher allelic diversity than hatchery-reared populations in corresponding rivers.

A review of the biology, ecology, distribution and control of Mozambique tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters 1852) (Pisces: Cichlidae) with particular emphasis on invasive Australian populations

Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters 1852) are native to the eastward flowing rivers of central and southern Africa but from the early 1930s they have been widely distributed around the world for aquaculture and for biological control of weeds and insects. While O. mossambicus are now not commonly used as an aquaculture species, the biological traits that made them a popular culture species including tolerance to wide ranging ecological conditions, generalist dietary requirements and rapid reproduction with maternal care have also made them a 'model' invader. Self-sustaining populations now exist in almost every region to which they have been imported. In Australia, since their introduction in the 1970s, O. mossambicus have become established in catchments along the east and west coasts and have the potential to colonise other adjacent drainages. It is thought that intentional translocations are likely to be the most significant factor in their spread in Australia. The ecological and physical tolerances and preferences, reproductive behaviour, hybridization and the high degree of plasticity in the life history traits of O. mossambicus are reviewed. Impacts of O. mossambicus on natural ecosystems including competitive displacement of native species, habitat alteration, predation and as a vector in the spread of diseases are discussed. Potential methods for eradicating or controlling invasive populations of O. mossambicus including physical removal, piscicides, screens, environmental management and genetic technologies are outlined.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.