The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

Characterization of glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) gene polymorphisms and a family-based association study with hypertension

Hypertension is usually defined as having values of systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg. Hypertension is one of the main adverse effects of glucocorticoid on the cardiovascular system. Glucocorticoids are essential hormones, secreted from adrenal glands in circadian fashion. Glucocorticoid's effect on blood pressure is conveyed by the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1), an omnipresent nuclear transcription factor. Although polymorphisms in this gene have long been implicated to be a causal factor for cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension, no study has yet thoroughly interrogated the gene's polymorphisms for their effect on blood pressure levels. Therefore, I have first resequenced ∼30 kb of the gene, encompassing all exons, promoter regions, 5'/3' UTRs as well as at least 1.5 kb of the gene's flanking regions from 114 chromosome 5 monosomic cell lines, comprised of three major American ethnic groups—European American, African American and Mexican American. I observed 115 polymorphisms and 14 common molecularly phased haplotypes. A subset of markers was chosen for genotyping study populations of GENOA (Genetic Epidemiology Network of Atherosclerosis; 1022 non-Hispanic whites, 1228 African Americans and 954 Mexican Americans). Since these study populations include sibships, the family-based association test was performed on 4 blood pressure-related quantitative variables—pulse, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure. Using these analyses, multiple correlated SNPs are significantly protective against high systolic blood pressure in non-Hispanic whites, which includes rsb198, a SNP formerly associated with beneficial body compositions. Haplotype association analysis also supports this finding and all p-values remained significant after permutation tests. I therefore conclude that multiple correlated SNPs on the gene may confer protection against high blood pressure in non-Hispanic whites. ^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Literature review of estimation of prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in India using population survey and sentinel surveillance based data

HIV/AIDS is a treatable although incurable disease that presents immense challenges to those infected including physical, social and psychological effects. As of 2009, an estimated 2.4 million people were living with HIV or AIDS in India, 0.3% of the country's population. In India, it is difficult to not only treat but also to track because it is associated with socio-economic factors such as illiteracy, social biases, poor sanitation, malnutrition and social class. Nevertheless, it is important to know the prevalence of HIV/AIDS for several reasons. At the individual level, the quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS is markedly lower than their counterparts without the disease and is associated with challenges. At the community level, it is important to identify high risk groups, monitor prevention efforts, and allocate appropriate resources to target programs for the reduction of transmission of HIV. ^

Estimates of hospital and physician costs of epilepsy in the United States for 1995 comparing the provider -based survey method and a patient -based medical charts and billing method

This investigation compares two different methodologies for calculating the national cost of epilepsy: provider-based survey method (PBSM) and the patient-based medical charts and billing method (PBMC&BM). The PBSM uses the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) as the sources of utilization. The PBMC&BM uses patient data, charts and billings, to determine utilization rates for specific components of hospital, physician and drug prescriptions. ^ The 1995 hospital and physician cost of epilepsy is estimated to be $722 million using the PBSM and $1,058 million using the PBMC&BM. The difference of $336 million results from $136 million difference in utilization and $200 million difference in unit cost. ^ Utilization. The utilization difference of $136 million is composed of an inpatient variation of $129 million, $100 million hospital and $29 million physician, and an ambulatory variation of $7 million. The $100 million hospital variance is attributed to inclusion of febrile seizures in the PBSM, $−79 million, and the exclusion of admissions attributed to epilepsy, $179 million. The former suggests that the diagnostic codes used in the NHDS may not properly match the current definition of epilepsy as used in the PBMC&BM. The latter suggests NHDS errors in the attribution of an admission to the principal diagnosis. ^ The $29 million variance in inpatient physician utilization is the result of different per-day-of-care physician visit rates, 1.3 for the PBMC&BM versus 1.0 for the PBSM. The absence of visit frequency measures in the NHDS affects the internal validity of the PBSM estimate and requires the investigator to make conservative assumptions. ^ The remaining ambulatory resource utilization variance is $7 million. Of this amount, $22 million is the result of an underestimate of ancillaries in the NHAMCS and NAMCS extrapolations using the patient visit weight. ^ Unit cost. The resource cost variation is $200 million, inpatient is $22 million and ambulatory is $178 million. The inpatient variation of $22 million is composed of $19 million in hospital per day rates, due to a higher cost per day in the PBMC&BM, and $3 million in physician visit rates, due to a higher cost per visit in the PBMC&BM. ^ The ambulatory cost variance is $178 million, composed of higher per-physician-visit costs of $97 million and higher per-ancillary costs of $81 million. Both are attributed to the PBMC&BM's precise identification of resource utilization that permits accurate valuation. ^ Conclusion. Both methods have specific limitations. The PBSM strengths are its sample designs that lead to nationally representative estimates and permit statistical point and confidence interval estimation for the nation for certain variables under investigation. However, the findings of this investigation suggest the internal validity of the estimates derived is questionable and important additional information required to precisely estimate the cost of an illness is absent. ^ The PBMC&BM is a superior method in identifying resources utilized in the physician encounter with the patient permitting more accurate valuation. However, the PBMC&BM does not have the statistical reliability of the PBSM; it relies on synthesized national prevalence estimates to extrapolate a national cost estimate. While precision is important, the ability to generalize to the nation may be limited due to the small number of patients that are followed. ^

Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, oxygen isotope records of foraminifera, and alkenone and Mg/Ca-based SST estimates for the time interval 3.40-3.18 Ma (Late Pliocene) from five North Atlantic and Caribbean sediment cores

The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ~3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ~3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Our geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the Greenland ice sheet during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the NAC was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

Mid-Wisconsin to Holocene permafrost and landscape dynamics based on a drained lake basin core from the northern Seward Peninsula, Northwest Alaska

Permafrost-related processes drive regional landscape dynamics in the Arctic terrestrial system. A better understanding of past periods indicative of permafrost degradation and aggradation is important for predicting the future response of Arctic landscapes to climate change. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to analyze a ~4 m long sediment core from a drained thermokarst lake basin on the northern Seward Peninsula in western Arctic Alaska (USA). Sedimentological, biogeochemistical, geochronological, micropaleontological (ostracoda, testate amoeba) and tephra analyses were used to determine the long-term environmental Early-Wisconsin to Holocene history preserved in our core for Central Beringia. Yedoma accumulation dominated throughout the Early to Late-Wisconsin but was interrupted by wetland formation from 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. The latter was terminated by deposition of 1 m of volcanic tephra, most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at about 42 ka BP. Yedoma deposition continued until 22.5 ka BP and was followed by a depositional hiatus in the sediment core between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP. We interpret this hiatus as due to intense thermokarst activity in the areas surrounding the site, which served as a sediment source during the Late-Wisconsin to Holocene climate transition. The lake forming the modern basin on the upland initiated around 0.23 ka BP, which drained catastrophically in spring 2005. The present study emphasizes that Arctic lake systems and periglacial landscapes are highly dynamic and permafrost formation as well as degradation in Central Beringia was controlled by regional to global climate patterns and as well as by local disturbances.

Characterization of late Campanian and Maastrichtian planktonic foraminiferal depth habitats and vital activities based on stable isotopes

Depth habitats of 56 late Cretaceous planktonic foraminiferal species from cool and warm climate modes were determined based on stable isotope analyses of deep-sea samples from the equatorial Pacific DSDP Sites 577A and 463, and South Atlantic DSDP Site 525A. The following conclusions can be reached: Planoglobulina multicamerata (De Klasz) and Heterohelix rajagopalani (Govindan) occupied the deepest plankton habitats, followed by Abathomphalus mayaroensis (Bolli), Globotruncanella havanensis (Voorwijk), Gublerina cuvillieri Kikoine, and Laeviheterohelix glabrans (Cushman) also at subthermocline depth. Most keeled globotruncanids, and possibly Globigerinelliodes and Racemiguembelina species, lived at or within the thermocline layer. Heterohelix globulosa (Ehrenberg) and Rugoglobigerina, Pseudotextularia and Planoglobulina occupied the subsurface depth of the mixed layer, and Pseudoguembelina species inhabited the surface mixed layer. However, depth ranking of some species varied depending on warm or cool climate modes, and late Campanian or Maastrichtian age. For example, most keeled globotruncanids occupied similar shallow subsurface habitats as Rugoglobigerina during the warm late Campanian, but occupied the deeper thermocline layer during cool climatic intervals. Two distinct types of "vital effect" mechanisms reflecting photosymbiosis and respiration effects can be recognized by the exceptional delta13C signals of some species. (1) Photosymbiosis is implied by the repetitive pattern of relatively enriched delta13C values of Racemiguembelina (strongest), Planoglobulina, Rosita and Rugoglobigerina species, Pseudoguembelina excolata (weakest). (2) Enriched respiration 12C products are recognized in A. mayaroensis, Gublerina acuta De Klasz, and Heterohelix planata (Cushman). Isotopic trends between samples suggest that photosymbiotic activities varied between localities or during different climate modes, and may have ceased under certain environmental conditions. The appearance of most photosymbiotic species in the late Maastrichtian suggests oligotrophic conditions associated with increased water-mass stratification.