Disaster resilience and local adaptation capacity in coastal Queensland

The 2011 floods illustrated once again Queensland’s vulnerability to flooding and similar disasters. Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of such events and will have a variety of other impacts. To deal with these impacts governments at all levels need to be prepared and work together. Like the rest of the nation most of the population of the state is located in the coastal areas and these areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This paper examines climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Queensland. The aim is increasing local disaster resilience of people and property through fostering coordination between local and state government planning activities in coastal high hazard areas. By increasing the ability of local governments and state agencies to coordinate planning activities, we can help adapt to impacts of climate change. Towards that end, we will look at the ways that these groups currently interact, especially with regard to issues involving uncertainty related to climate change impacts. Through an examination of climate change related activities by Queensland’s coastal local governments and state level planning agencies and how they coordinate their planning activities at different levels we aim to identify the weaknesses of the current planning system in responding to the challenges of climate change adaptation and opportunities for improving the ways we plan and coordinate planning, and make recommendations to improve resilience in advance of disasters so as to help speed up recovery when they occur.

Consequences of extensional tectonics on volcanic eruption style, compositions and source regions : new insights from the southern Sierra Madre Occidental and Gulf of California regions, western Mexico

Understanding the link between tectonic-driven extensional faulting and volcanism is crucial from a hazard perspective in active volcanic environments, while ancient volcanic successions provide records on how volcanic eruption styles, compositions, magnitudes and frequencies can change in response to extension timing, distribution and intensity. This study draws on intimate relationships of volcanism and extension preserved in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) and Gulf of California (GoC) regions of western Mexico. Here, a major Oligocene rhyolitic ignimbrite “flare-up” (>300,000 km3) switched to a dominantly bimodal and mixed effusive-explosive volcanic phase in the Early Miocene (~100,000 km3), associated with distributed extension and opening of numerous grabens. Rhyolitic dome fields were emplaced along graben edges and at intersections of cross-graben and graben-parallel structures during early stages of graben development. Concomitant with this change in rhyolite eruption style was a change in crustal source as revealed by zircon chronochemistry with rapid rates of rhyolite magma generation due to remelting of mid- to upper crustal, highly differentiated igneous rocks emplaced during earlier SMO magmatism. Extension became more focused ~18 Ma resulting in volcanic activity being localised along the site of GoC opening. This localised volcanism (known as the Comondú “arc”) was dominantly effusive and andesite-dacite in composition. This compositional change resulted from increased mixing of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas rather than fluid flux melting of the mantle wedge above the subducting Guadalupe Plate. A poor understanding of space-time relationships of volcanism and extension has thus led to incorrect past tectonic interpretations of Comondú-age volcanism.

Modelling surface and shallow groundwater interactions in an ungauged subtropical coastal catchment using the SWAT model, Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland, Australia

The study presented here applies the highly parameterised semi-distributed U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to an Australian subtropical catchment. SWAT has been applied to numerous catchments worldwide and is considered to be a useful tool that is under ongoing development with contributions coming from different research groups in different parts of the world. In a preliminary run the SWAT model application for the Elimbah Creek catchment has estimated water yield for the catchment and has quantified the different sources. For the modelling period of April 1999 to September 2009 the results show that the main sources of water in Elimbah Creek are total surface runoff and lateral flow (65%). Base-flow contributes 36% to the total runoff. On a seasonal basis modelling results show a shift in the source of water contributing to Elimbah Creek from surface runoff and lateral flow during intense summer storms to base-flow conditions during dry months. Further calibration and validation of these results will confirm that SWAT provides an alternative to Australian water balance models.

Resilient Maroochydore 2029 : Urban Design Futures

Resilient Maroochydore 2029 This exhibition showcases the work of 4th year undergraduate Landscape Architecture students in response to issues of sustainability in Maroochydore on the Queensland Sunshine coast. The projects comprising this exhibition all investigate possible design futures for the Maroochydore Centre, in the light of a series of new disturbance scenarios. Specific disturbances upon the landscape have been imagined, and design resolutions developed based on resilience to these disturbances. The proposals investigate how the Maroochydore Centre might respond to these scenarios, and how future components of the Centre might be designed for greater ‘resilience’. The Exhibition Five groups of students (32 in total) produced five strategic planning and design options toward this future: Team Transect: “What happens to a region following a sustained period of economic prosperity, with affordable property and negligible unemployment? This proposal investigates the effects on a community of massive population explosion, land shortages and inadequate planning regulations following an extended boom period.” The Foodfighters: “This proposal considers the scenario of massive food shortages and of escalating prices, and the possibility of government intervention to stabilise food supply. Strategies based upon simplified, collaborative approaches to food production are investigated.” The TTMKG: “This proposal explores the scenario of Peak Oil and the subsequent effects on society of homelessness, large scale unemployment, food shortages and global financial and political instability. Individual opportunities are restricted by the limitations of bicycle transportation.” Team Peak: “Peak Oil has restricted private vehicle transport to only the most wealthy, while public transport systems are under immense pressure. Rising unemployment drives localised trade initiatives, and the global import/export market has collapsed. This proposal considers the transition of a community from its position in a global economy to that of a relocalised economy, where basic needs are secured as close to home as possible.” After the City: “A rapid population decline as a result of the region’s failing economy has resulted in a fragmented urban fabric. This proposal investigates the possibility of new suburbanisation, reinterpretation and reinvention of space through phased processes.”

A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Integrated coastal zone management and sustainable development of coastal area : a short overview of international legal framework

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction ICZM and sustainable development of coastal zone International legal framework for ICZM Implementation of international legal obligations in domestic arena Concluding remarks References

Modelling sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers using heterogeneous computing

The objective of this PhD research program is to investigate numerical methods for simulating variably-saturated flow and sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers in a high-performance computing environment. The work is divided into three overlapping tasks: to develop an accurate and stable finite volume discretisation and numerical solution strategy for the variably-saturated flow and salt transport equations; to implement the chosen approach in a high performance computing environment that may have multiple GPUs or CPU cores; and to verify and test the implementation. The geological description of aquifers is often complex, with porous materials possessing highly variable properties, that are best described using unstructured meshes. The finite volume method is a popular method for the solution of the conservation laws that describe sea water intrusion, and is well-suited to unstructured meshes. In this work we apply a control volume-finite element (CV-FE) method to an extension of a recently proposed formulation (Kees and Miller, 2002) for variably saturated groundwater flow. The CV-FE method evaluates fluxes at points where material properties and gradients in pressure and concentration are consistently defined, making it both suitable for heterogeneous media and mass conservative. Using the method of lines, the CV-FE discretisation gives a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs) amenable to solution using higher-order implicit solvers. Heterogeneous computer systems that use a combination of computational hardware such as CPUs and GPUs, are attractive for scientific computing due to the potential advantages offered by GPUs for accelerating data-parallel operations. We present a C++ library that implements data-parallel methods on both CPU and GPUs. The finite volume discretisation is expressed in terms of these data-parallel operations, which gives an efficient implementation of the nonlinear residual function. This makes the implicit solution of the DAE system possible on the GPU, because the inexact Newton-Krylov method used by the implicit time stepping scheme can approximate the action of a matrix on a vector using residual evaluations. We also propose preconditioning strategies that are amenable to GPU implementation, so that all computationally-intensive aspects of the implicit time stepping scheme are implemented on the GPU. Results are presented that demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numeric methods and formulation. The formulation offers excellent conservation of mass, and higher-order temporal integration increases both numeric efficiency and accuracy of the solutions. Flux limiting produces accurate, oscillation-free solutions on coarse meshes, where much finer meshes are required to obtain solutions with equivalent accuracy using upstream weighting. The computational efficiency of the software is investigated using CPUs and GPUs on a high-performance workstation. The GPU version offers considerable speedup over the CPU version, with one GPU giving speedup factor of 3 over the eight-core CPU implementation.

Impact of recent coastal development and human activities on Nha Trang Bay, Vietnam : evidence from a Porites lutea geochemical record

Nha Trang Bay (NTB) is located on the Central Vietnam coast, western South China Sea. Recent coastal development of Nha Trang City has raised public concern over an increasing level of pollution within the bay and degradation of nearby coral reefs. In this study, multiple proxies (e.g., trace metals, rare earth elements (REEs), and Y/Ho) recorded in a massive Porites lutea coral colony were used to reconstruct changes in seawater conditions in the NTB from 1995 to 2009. A 14-year record of REEs and other trace metals revealed that the concentrations of terrestrial trace metals have increased dramatically in response to an increase in coastal development projects such as road, port, and resort constructions, port and river dredging, and dumping activities since 2000. The effects of such developmental processes are also evident in changes in REE patterns and Y/Ho ratios through time, suggesting that both parameters are critical proxies for marine pollution.

Genomic evidence for the parallel evolution of coastal forms in the Senecio lautus complex

Instances of parallel ecotypic divergence where adaptation to similar conditions repeatedly cause similar phenotypic changes in closely related organisms are useful for studying the role of ecological selection in speciation. Here we used a combination of traditional and next generation genotyping techniques to test for the parallel divergence of plants from the Senecio lautus complex, a phenotypically variable groundsel that has adapted to disparate environments in the South Pacific. Phylogenetic analysis of a broad selection of Senecio species showed that members of the S. lautus complex form a distinct lineage that has diversified recently in Australasia. An inspection of thousands of polymorphisms in the genome of 27 natural populations from the S. lautus complex in Australia revealed a signal of strong genetic structure independent of habitat and phenotype. Additionally, genetic differentiation between populations was correlated with the geographical distance separating them, and the genetic diversity of populations strongly depended on geographical location. Importantly, coastal forms appeared in several independent phylogenetic clades, a pattern that is consistent with the parallel evolution of these forms. Analyses of the patterns of genomic differentiation between populations further revealed that adjacent populations displayed greater genomic heterogeneity than allopatric populations and are differentiated according to variation in soil composition. These results are consistent with a process of parallel ecotypic divergence in face of gene flow.

Convergence and divergence during the adaptation to similar environments by an Australian Groundsel

Adaptation to replicate environments is often achieved through similar phenotypic solutions. Whether selection also produces convergent genomic changes in these situations remains largely unknown. The variable groundsel, Senecio lautus, is an excellent system to investigate the genetic underpinnings of convergent evolution, because morphologically similar forms of these plants have adapted to the same environments along the coast of Australia. We compared range-wide patterns of genomic divergence in natural populations of this plant and searched for regions putatively affected by natural selection. Our results indicate that environmental adaptation followed complex genetic trajectories, affecting multiple loci, implying both the parallel recruitment of the same alleles and the divergence of completely different genomic regions across geography. An analysis of the biological functions of candidate genes suggests that adaptation to coastal environments may have occurred through the recruitment of different genes participating in similar processes. The relatively low genetic convergence that characterizes the parallel evolution of S. lautus forms suggests that evolution is more constrained at higher levels of biological organization.

Common variants in the regulative regions of GRIA1 and GRIA3 receptor genes are associated with migraine susceptibility

Background Glutamate is the principal excitatory neurotransmitter in the central nervous system which acts by the activation of either ionotropic (AMPA, NMDA and kainate receptors) or G-protein coupled metabotropic receptors. Glutamate is widely accepted to play a major role in the path physiology of migraine as implicated by data from animal and human studies. Genes involved in synthesis, metabolism and regulation of both glutamate and its receptors could be, therefore, considered as potential candidates for causing/predisposing to migraine when mutated. Methods The association of polymorphic variants of GRIA1-GRIA4 genes which encode for the four subunits (GluR1-GluR4) of the alpha-amino-3- hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole-propionic acid (AMPA) receptor for glutamate was tested in migraineurs with and without aura (MA and MO) and healthy controls. Results Two variants in the regulative regions of GRIA1 (rs2195450) and GRIA3 (rs3761555) genes resulted strongly associated with MA (P = 0.00002 and P = 0.0001, respectively), but not associated with MO, suggesting their role in cortical spreading depression. Whereas the rs548294 variant in GRIA1 gene showed association primarily with MO phenotype, supporting the hypothesis that MA and MO phenotypes could be genetically related. These variants modify binding sites for transcription factors altering the expression of GRIA1 and GRIA3 genes in different conditions. Conclusions This study represents the first genetic evidence of a link between glutamate receptors and migraine.

Patellar tendon ultrasonography in asymptomatic active athletes reveals hypoechoic regions : a study of 320 tendons

OBJECTIVE: To compare patellar tendon sonographic findings in active, currently asymptomatic, elite athletes with those in nonathletic controls. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study with convenience control sample. SETTING: The Victorian Institute of Sport Tendon Study Group, an institutional elite athlete study group in Australia. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred elite male and female athletes from the sports of basketball, cricket, netball, and Australian rules football. Forty athletes who had current symptoms of jumper's knee were excluded from analysis, leaving 320 subject tendons in athletes who were currently asymptomatic. Twenty-seven nonathletic individuals served as controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Sonographic patellar tendon appearance. We measured the dimensions of subject tendons and noted the presence or absence of hypoechoic regions and tendon calcification. Dimensions of hypoechoic regions were measured, and approximate cross-sectional areas were calculated. Chi-squared analysis was used to test the prevalence of hypoechoic regions in subjects and controls and men and women. RESULTS: In currently asymptomatic subjects, hypoechoic regions were more prevalent in athlete tendons (22%) than in controls (4%), in male subject tendons (30%) than in female subjects (14%), and in basketball players (32%) than in other athletes (9%) (all p < 0.01). Bilateral tendon abnormalities were equally prevalent in men and women but more prevalent in basketball players (15%) than in other athletes (3%) (p < 0.05). Sonographic hypoechoic regions were present in 35 of 250 (14%) patellar tendons in athletes who had never had anterior knee pain. CONCLUSIONS: Patellar tendon sonographic hypoechoic areas were present in asymptomatic patellar tendons of a proportion of elite athletes but rarely present in controls. This has implications for clinicians managing athletes with anterior knee pain.

Asymptomatic hypoechoic regions on patellar tendon ultrasound : a 4-year clinical and ultrasound followup of 46 tendons

Patellar tendon ultrasound appearance is commonly used in clinical practice to diagnose patellar tendinopathy and guide management. Using a longitudinal study design we examined whether or not the presence of a hypoechoic ultrasonographic lesion in an asymptomatic patellar tendon conferred a risk for developing jumper's knee compared with a tendon that was ultrasonographically normal. Ultrasonographic, symptomatic and anthropometric assessment was completed at baseline and followup. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed on four tendons that resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Forty-six patellar tendons were followed over 47 ± 11.8 months. Eighteen tendons were hypoechoic at baseline and 28 were ultrasonographically normal. Five tendons resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Magnetic resonance imaging in four of these tendons was normal. Seven normal patellar tendons at baseline developed a hypoechoic area but only two became symptomatic. Analysis of ultrasonography at baseline and clinical outcome with Fisher's exact test shows there is no association between baseline ultrasound changes and symptoms at followup. In this study there is no statistically significant relationship between ultrasonographic patellar tendon abnormalities and clinical outcome in elite male athletes. Management of jumper's knee should not be solely based on ultrasonographic appearance; clinical assessment remains the cornerstone of appropriate management.

Perceptions of land-use uncertainty in Queensland's resource-based regions

Some of Queensland's regions are experiencing rapid changes related to the recent and growing capacity to more effectively exploit significant energy sources. These changes have triggered land-use conflicts between the mining sector and other economic sectors, mainly agriculture. These conflicts fuel existing uncertainty surrounding the current and future economic, social and environmental impacts of extractive industries. This paper explores the concept of uncertainty as it applies to planning for resource-based regions through a scoping analysis of regional stakeholders' perceptions of land-use uncertainty. It then investigates solutions to alleviate such an issue.