The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones

The ability of the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in winter [December–February (DJF)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] is investigated in detail. Cyclones are identified as maxima in T42 vorticity at 850 hPa and their propagation is tracked using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. By comparing the historical CMIP5 simulations (1976–2005) and the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1979–2008), the authors find that systematic biases affect the number and intensity of North Atlantic cyclones in CMIP5 models. In DJF, the North Atlantic storm track tends to be either too zonal or displaced southward, thus leading to too few and weak cyclones over the Norwegian Sea and too many cyclones in central Europe. In JJA, the position of the North Atlantic storm track is generally well captured but some CMIP5 models underestimate the total number of cyclones. The dynamical intensity of cyclones, as measured by either T42 vorticity at 850 hPa or mean sea level pressure, is too weak in both DJF and JJA. The intensity bias has a hemispheric character, and it cannot be simply attributed to the representation of the North Atlantic large- scale atmospheric state. Despite these biases, the representation of Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks has improved since CMIP3 and some CMIP5 models are able of representing well both the number and the intensity of North Atlantic cyclones. In particular, some of the higher-atmospheric-resolution models tend to have a better representation of the tilt of the North Atlantic storm track and of the intensity of cyclones in DJF.

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (24%) and JJA (22%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cy- clones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.

Mechanisms underlying temperature extremes in Iberia: a Lagrangian perspective

The mechanisms underlying the occurrence of temperature extremes in Iberia are analysed considering a Lagrangian perspective of the atmospheric flow, using 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the years 1979–2012. Daily 2-m minimum temperatures below the 1st percentile and 2-m maximum temperatures above the 99th percentile at each grid point over Iberia are selected separately for winter and summer. Four categories of extremes are analysed using 10-d backward trajectories initialized at the extreme temperature grid points close to the surface: winter cold (WCE) and warm extremes (WWE), and summer cold (SCE) and warm extremes (SWE). Air masses leading to temperature extremes are first transported from the North Atlantic towards Europe for all categories. While there is a clear relation to large-scale circulation patterns in winter, the Iberian thermal low is important in summer. Along the trajectories, air mass characteristics are significantly modified through adiabatic warming (air parcel descent), upper-air radiative cooling and near-surface warming (surface heat fluxes and radiation). High residence times over continental areas, such as over northern-central Europe for WCE and, to a lesser extent, over Iberia for SWE, significantly enhance these air mass modifications. Near-surface diabatic warming is particularly striking for SWE. WCE and SWE are responsible for the most extreme conditions in a given year. For WWE and SCE, strong temperature advection associated with important meridional air mass transports are the main driving mechanisms, accompanied by comparatively minor changes in the air mass properties. These results permit a better understanding of mechanisms leading to temperature extremes in Iberia.

Demokrati eller presidentdiktatur? : Konstitutionella vägval i postkommunistiska länder

While authoritarian presidents prevail under heavily president-oriented constitutions throughout the post-Soviet region, democracy along parliamentary lines triumphs in Central Europe. This article discusses the constitutional pattern among the post-communist countries on the basis of two general questions: First, how can we explain why strong presidential constitutions dominate throughout the post-Soviet region whereas constrained presidencies and governments anchored in parliament have become the prevailing option in Central Europe? Second, and interlinked with the first question, why have so many post-communist countries (in the post-Soviet region as well as in Central Europe) chosen neither parliamentarism nor presidentialism, but instead semi-presidential arrangements whereby a directly elected president is provided with considerable powers and coexists with a prime minister? The analysis indicates that both historical-institutional and actor-oriented factors are relevant here. Key factors have been regime transition, pre-communist era constitutions and leaders, as well as short-term economic and political considerations. With differing strengths and in partly different ways, these factors seem to have affected the actors’ preferences and final constitutional compromises.

Semantic Distributed Messaging Middleware

Messaging middleware provides asynchronous communication between services in distributed environments. However, security, reliability and performance issues compel such middleware to be distributed, and distribution throws up its own problems such as identifying messaging channels which could then be subscribed to. In particular, interested parties need to identify channels defined in remote locations while not knowing details of how they are defined. A common vocabulary using semantic descriptions offers a solution to this problem. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of federated messaging middleware using semantic description of channels.

A low cost structured light system

The aim of this paper is to present the current development status of a low cost system for surface reconstruction with structured light. The acquisition system is composed of a single off-the-shelf digital camera and a pattern projector. A pattern codification strategy was developed to allow the pattern recognition automatically and a calibration methodology ensures the determination of the direction vector of each pattern. The experiments indicated that an accuracy of 0.5mm in depth could be achieved for typical applications.

Crítica e autocrítica da modernidade: crise civilizatória e utopia anticapitalista em Michael Löwy

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FCLAR

Association of Borrelia garinii and B. valaisiana with Songbirds in Slovakia

In Europe, 6 of the 11 genospecies of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato are prevalent in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks. In most parts of Central Europe, B. afzelii, B. garinii, and B. valaisiana are the most frequent species, whereas B. burgdorferi sensu stricto, B. bissettii, and B. lusitaniae are rare. Previously, it has been shown that B. afzelii is associated with European rodents. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify reservoir hosts of B. garinii and B. valaisiana in Slovakia. Songbirds were captured in a woodland near Bratislava and investigated for engorged ticks. Questing I. ricinus ticks were collected in the same region. Both tick pools were analyzed for spirochete infections by PCR, followed by DNA-DNA hybridization and, for a subsample, by nucleotide sequencing. Three of the 17 captured songbird species were infested with spirochete-infected ticks. Spirochetes in ticks that had fed on birds were genotyped as B. garinii and B. valaisiana, whereas questing ticks were infected with B. afzelii, B. garinii, and B. valaisiana. Furthermore, identical ospA alleles of B. garinii were found in ticks that had fed on the birds and in questing ticks. The data show that songbirds are reservoir hosts of B. garinii and B. valaisiana but not of B. afzelii. This and previous studies confirm that B. burgdorferi sensu lato is host associated and that this bacterial species complex contains different ecotypes.

Strutture a pareti portanti in C. A. caratterizzate da elevate prestazioni sismiche

Per quanto riguarda le costruzioni in conglomerato cementizio armato gettato in opera, i sistemi strutturali più comunemente utilizzati sono quelli a telaio (con trasmissione di momento flettente), a setti portanti o una combinazione di entrambi. A partire dagli anni ’60, numerosissimi sono stati gli studi relativamente al comportamento sismico di strutture in c.a. a telaio. Lo stesso si può affermare per le costruzioni costituite da pareti miste a telai. In particolare, l’argomento della progettazione sismica di tali tipologie di edifici ha sempre riguardato soprattutto gli edifici alti nei quali, evidentemente, l’impiego delle pareti avveniva allo scopo di limitarne la elevata deformabilità. Il comportamento sismico di strutture realizzate interamente a pareti portanti in c.a. è stato meno studiato negli anni, nonostante si sia osservato che edifici realizzati mediante tali sistemi strutturali abbiano mostrato, in generale, pregevoli risorse di resistenza nei confronti di terremoti anche di elevata intensità. Negli ultimi 10 anni, l’ingegneria sismica si sta incentrando sull’approfondimento delle risorse di tipologie costruttive di cui si è sempre fatto largo uso in passato (tipicamente nei paesi dell’Europa continentale, in America latina, negli USA e anche in Italia), ma delle quali mancavano adeguate conoscenze scientifiche relativamente al loro comportamento in zona sismica. Tali tipologie riguardano sostanzialmente sistemi strutturali interamente costituiti da pareti portanti in c.a. per edifici di modesta altezza, usualmente utilizzati in un’edilizia caratterizzata da ridotti costi di realizzazione (fabbricati per abitazioni civili e/o uffici). Obiettivo “generale” del lavoro di ricerca qui presentato è lo studio del comportamento sismico di strutture realizzate interamente a setti portanti in c.a. e di modesta altezza (edilizia caratterizzata da ridotti costi di realizzazione). In particolare, le pareti che si intendono qui studiare sono caratterizzate da basse percentuali geometriche di armatura e sono realizzate secondo la tecnologia del cassero a perdere. A conoscenza dello scrivente, non sono mai stati realizzati, fino ad oggi, studi sperimentali ed analitici allo scopo di determinare il comportamento sismico di tali sistemi strutturali, mentre è ben noto il loro comportamento statico. In dettaglio, questo lavoro di ricerca ha il duplice scopo di: • ottenere un sistema strutturale caratterizzato da elevate prestazioni sismiche; • mettere a punto strumenti applicativi (congruenti e compatibili con le vigenti normative e dunque immediatamente utilizzabili dai progettisti) per la progettazione sismica dei pannelli portanti in c.a. oggetto del presente studio. Al fine di studiare il comportamento sismico e di individuare gli strumenti pratici per la progettazione, la ricerca è stata organizzata come segue: • identificazione delle caratteristiche delle strutture studiate, mediante lo sviluppo/specializzazione di opportune formulazioni analitiche; • progettazione, supervisione, ed interpretazione di una estesa campagna di prove sperimentali eseguita su pareti portanti in c.a. in vera grandezza, al fine di verificarne l’efficace comportamento sotto carico ciclico; • sviluppo di semplici indicazioni (regole) progettuali relativamente alle strutture a pareti in c.a. studiate, al fine di ottenere le caratteristiche prestazionali desiderate. I risultati delle prove sperimentali hanno mostrato di essere in accordo con le previsioni analitiche, a conferma della validità degli strumenti di predizione del comportamento di tali pannelli. Le elevatissime prestazioni riscontrate sia in termini di resistenza che in termini di duttilità hanno evidenziato come le strutture studiate, così messe a punto, abbiano manifestato un comportamento sismico più che soddisfacente.