Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km²; 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

Prevalence, Nature, Severity and Risk Factors for Prescribing Errors in Hospital Inpatients: Prospective Study in 20 UK Hospitals

Introduction: It has been suggested that doctors in their first year of post-graduate training make a disproportionate number of prescribing errors.

Obkective: This study aimed to compare the prevalence of prescribing errors made by first-year post-graduate doctors with that of errors by senior doctors and non-medical prescribers and to investigate the predictors of potentially serious prescribing errors.

Methods: Pharmacists in 20 hospitals over 7 prospectively selected days collected data on the number of medication orders checked, the grade of prescriber and details of any prescribing errors. Logistic regression models (adjusted for clustering by hospital) identified factors predicting the likelihood of prescribing erroneously and the severity of prescribing errors.

Results: Pharmacists reviewed 26,019 patients and 124,260 medication orders; 11,235 prescribing errors were detected in 10,986 orders. The mean error rate was 8.8 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.6-9.1) errors per 100 medication orders. Rates of errors for all doctors in training were significantly higher than rates for medical consultants. Doctors who were 1 year (odds ratio [OR] 2.13; 95 % CI 1.80-2.52) or 2 years in training (OR 2.23; 95 % CI 1.89-2.65) were more than twice as likely to prescribe erroneously. Prescribing errors were 70 % (OR 1.70; 95 % CI 1.61-1.80) more likely to occur at the time of hospital admission than when medication orders were issued during the hospital stay. No significant differences in severity of error were observed between grades of prescriber. Potentially serious errors were more likely to be associated with prescriptions for parenteral administration, especially for cardiovascular or endocrine disorders.

Conclusions: The problem of prescribing errors in hospitals is substantial and not solely a problem of the most junior medical prescribers, particularly for those errors most likely to cause significant patient harm. Interventions are needed to target these high-risk errors by all grades of staff and hence improve patient safety.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Risk factors (excluding hormone therapy) for endometrial hyperplasia: a systematic review.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of risk factors associated with the development of Endometrial Hyperplasia (EH).

Data sources: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 30 June 2015.

Study eligibility: Fifteen observational studies that reported on EH risk in relation to lifestyle factors (n=14), medical history (n=11), reproductive and menstrual history (n=9) and measures of socio-economic status (n=2) were identified. Pooled relative risk estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were able to be derived for EH and Body Mass Index (BMI), smoking, diabetes and hypertension, using random effects models comparing high versus low categories.

Results: The pooled relative risk for EH when comparing women with the highest versus lowest BMI was 1.82 (95% CI 1.22–2.71; n=7 studies, I2=90.4%). No significant associations were observed for EH risk for smokers compared with non-smokers (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.17; n=3, I2=0.0%), hypertensive versus normotensive women (RR 1.51, 95% CI 0.72–3.15; n=5 studies, I2=79.1%), or diabetic versus non-diabetic women (RR 1.77, 95% CI 0.79–3.96; n=5 studies, I2=31.8%) respectively although the number of included studies was limited. There were mixed reports on the relationship between age and risk of EH. Too few studies reported on other factors to reach any conclusions in relation to EH risk.

Conclusions: A high BMI was associated with an increased risk of EH, providing additional rationale for women to maintain a normal body weight. No significant associations were detected for other factors and EH risk, however relatively few studies have been conducted and few of the available studies adequately adjusted for relevant confounders. Therefore, further aetiological studies of endometrial hyperplasia are warranted.

Bereavement outcomes: a quantitative survey identifying risk factors in family carers bereaved through cancer.

Background: Enabling patients to die in their preferred place is important but achieving preferred place of death may increase the informal carer’s risk into bereavement. Aim: to determine risk factors of family carers bereaved through cancer in Northern Ireland. Design: These results form part of a larger QUALYCARE-NI study which used postal questionnaires to capture quantitative data on carer’s bereavement scores using the Texas Revised Inventory of Grief. Setting/participants: Participants were individuals who: registered the death of a person between 1st December 2011 and 31st May 2012; where cancer (defined by ICD10 codes C00-D48) was the primary cause; where the deceased was over 18 years of age and death occurred at home, hospice, nursing home or hospital in Northern Ireland. Participants were approached in confidence by the Demography and Methodology Branch of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Those wishing to decline participation were invited to return the reply slip. Non-responders received a second questionnaire six weeks after initial invitation. Results indicated that risk factors positively influencing bereavement outcomes included patients having no preference for place of death and carers remaining in employment pre or post bereavement. In contrast, patients dying in hospital, carers stopping work, being of lower socio-economic status and close kinship to the deceased negatively impacted on bereavement scores. Family carers should be adequately supported to continue in employment; priority should be given to assessing the financial needs of families from lower socio-economic areas; and bereavement support should focus on close relatives of the deceased.

Environmental risk factors for the initial acquisition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in young children with cystic fibrosis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Risk Factors for Latex Sensitization in Children with Spina Bifida

Background: Children with spina bifida represent the major risk group for latex sensitization. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of latex sensitization in these children and to identify risk factors. Material and methods: We studied 57 patients with spina bifida. The mean age was 5.6 years and the male/female ratio was 0.8/1. In all patients a questionnaire, skin prick test (SPT) with latex (UCBStallergènes, Lofarma and ALK-Abelló), common aeroallergens and fruits (UCB-Stallergènes) and serum determination of total IgE (AlaSTAT) were performed. Results: The prevalence of latex sensitization was 30 %; only two sensitized children (12 %) had symptoms after exposure. Risk factors for latex sensitization were age 5 years (p = 0.008; OR = 6.0; 95% CI = 1.7-22.1), having at least four previous surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 18.5; 95% CI = 3.6-94.8), having undergone surgery in the first 3 months of life (p = 0.008; OR = 5.4; 95% CI = 0.7-29.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.03; OR = 3.8; 95 %CI = 1.1-13.1). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only a history of four or more surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 26.3; 95 %CI = 2.9-234.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.02; OR = 8.6; 95% CI = 1.4-53.4) were independently associated with latex sensitization. Sex, family and personal allergic history, hydrocephalus with ventriculoperitoneal shunt, cystourethrograms, intermittent bladder catheterization and atopy were not related to latex sensitization. Conclusions: In children with spina bifida, significant and independent risk factors identified for latex sensitization were multiple interventions and higher levels of total serum IgE. A prospective study will clarify the clinical evolution of assymptomatic children sensitized to latex.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Impact of preoperative risk factors on morbidity after esophagectomy: is there room for improvement?

BACKGROUND: Despite progress in multidisciplinary treatment of esophageal cancer, oncologic esophagectomy is still the cornerstone of therapeutic strategies. Several scoring systems are used to predict postoperative morbidity, but in most cases they identify nonmodifiable parameters. The aim of this study was to identify potentially modifiable risk factors associated with complications after oncologic esophagectomy. METHODS: All consecutive patients with complete data sets undergoing oncologic esophagectomy in our department during 2001-2011 were included in this study. As potentially modifiable risk factors we assessed nutritional status depicted by body mass index (BMI) and preoperative serum albumin levels, excessive alcohol consumption, and active smoking. Postoperative complications were graded according to a validated 5-grade system. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify preoperative risk factors associated with the occurrence and severity of complications. RESULTS: Our series included 93 patients. Overall morbidity rate was 81 % (n = 75), with 56 % (n = 52) minor complications and 18 % (n = 17) major complications. Active smoking and excessive alcohol consumption were associated with the occurrence of severe complications, whereas BMI and low preoperative albumin levels were not. The simultaneous presence of two or more of these risk factors significantly increased the risk of postoperative complications. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of malnutrition, active smoking and alcohol consumption were found to have a negative impact on postoperative morbidity rates. Therefore, preoperative smoking and alcohol cessation counseling and monitoring and improving the nutritional status are strongly recommended.

Impact of carotid plaque screening on smoking cessation and other cardiovascular risk factors: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Screening of peripheral atherosclerosis is increasingly used, but few trials have examined its clinical impact. We aimed to assess whether carotid plaque screening helps smokers to improve their health behaviors and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We randomly assigned 536 smokers aged 40 to 70 years to carotid plaque ultrasonographic screening (US group) vs no screening (control group) in addition to individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapy for all participants. Smokers with at least 1 plaque received pictures of their plaques with a 7-minute structured explanation. The outcomes included biochemically validated smoking cessation at 12 months (primary outcome) and changes in cardiovascular risk factor levels and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: At baseline, participants (mean age, 51.1 years; 45.0% women) smoked an average of 20 cigarettes per day with a median duration of 32 years. The US group had a high prevalence of carotid plaques (57.9%). At 12 months, smoking cessation rates were high, but did not differ between the US and control groups (24.9% vs 22.1%; P = .45). In the US group, cessation rates did not differ according to the presence or absence of plaques. Control of cardiovascular risk factors (ie, blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hemoglobin A(1c) levels in diabetic patients) and mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score did not differ between the groups. The mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score was +0.6 in the US group vs +0.3 in the control group (P = .56). CONCLUSION: In smokers, carotid plaque screening performed in addition to thorough smoking cessation counseling is not associated with increased rates of smoking cessation or control of cardiovascular risk factors. Trial Registration  clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00548665.