Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

A vertebrate reproductive system involving three ploidy levels : hybrid origin of triploids in a contact zone of diploid and tetraploid green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup)

The rise and consequences of polyploidy in vertebrates, whose origin was associated with genome duplications, may be best studied in natural diploid and polyploid populations. In a diploid/tetraploid (2n/4n) geographic contact zone of Palearctic green toads in northern Kyrgyzstan, we examine 4ns and triploids (3n) of unknown genetic composition and origins. Using mitochondrial and nuclear sequence, and nuclear microsatellite markers in 84 individuals, we show that 4n (Bufo pewzowi) are allopolyploids, with a geographically proximate 2n species (B. turanensis) being their maternal ancestor and their paternal ancestor as yet unidentified. Local 3n forms arise through hybridization. Adult 3n mature males (B. turanensis mtDNA) have 2n mothers and 4n fathers, but seem distinguishable by nuclear profiles from partly aneuploid 3n tadpoles (with B. pewzowi mtDNA). These observations suggest multiple pathways to the formation of triploids in the contact zone, involving both reciprocal origins. To explain the phenomena in the system, we favor a hypothesis where 3n males (with B. turanensis mtDNA) backcross with 4n and 2n females. Together with previous studies of a separately evolved, sexually reproducing 3n lineage, these observations reveal complex reproductive interactions among toads of different ploidy levels and multiple pathways to the evolution of polyploid lineages.

Successful treatment of trilateral retinoblastoma with conventional and high-dose chemotherapy plus radiotherapy: a case report.

Trilateral retinoblastoma (TRB) is a rare condition characterized by an intracranial neuroblastic tumor associated with bilateral or unilateral retinoblastoma (RB). The outcome is almost always fatal. An 18-month-old patient with familial bilateral RB was referred for a pineal lesion detected on a screening by magnetic resonance imaging. The child, considered inoperable by 2 different neurosurgical teams, was treated with conventional chemotherapy (methotrexate, vincristine, vepeside, cyclophosphamide, and carboplatin) plus tandem transplantation (vepeside/carboplatin and thiotepa/mephalan) followed by local radiotherapy. At 80 months from the diagnosis of TRB, the patient is alive and in complete remission, with no neuropsychologic consequences. An early and aggressive treatment may improve the prognosis of TRB.

A recombinant hybrid protein as antigen for an anti-blood stage malaria vaccine: a study on the conservation of a protective component

Recently we have shown that two hybrid proteins expressed in Escherichia coli confer protective immunity to Aotus monkeys against an experimental Plasmodium falciparum infection (Knapp et al., 1992). Both hybrid proteins carry a sequence containing amino acids 631 to 764 of the serine stretch protein SERP (Knapp et al., 1989b). We have studied the diversity of this SERP region in field isolates of P. falciparum. Genomic DNA was extracted from the blood of six donors from different endemic areas of Brazil and West Africa. The SERP region encoding amino acids 630 to 781 was amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced. Only conserved amino acid substitutions in maximally two positions of the analyzed SERP fragment could be detected which supports the suitability of this SERP region as a component of anti-blood stage malaria vaccine.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Pedicle screw insertion: robotic assistance versus conventional C-arm fluoroscopy.

Bone-mounted robotic guidance for pedicle screw placement has been recently introduced, aiming at increasing accuracy. The aim of this prospective study was to compare this novel approach with the conventional fluoroscopy assisted freehand technique (not the two- or three-dimensional fluoroscopy-based navigation). Two groups were compared: 11 patients, constituting the robotical group, were instrumented with 64 pedicle screws; 23 other patients, constituting the fluoroscopic group, were also instrumented with 64 pedicle screws. Screw position was assessed by two independent observers on postoperative CT-scans using the Rampersaud A to D classification. No neurological complications were noted. Grade A (totally within pedicle margins) accounted for 79% of the screws in the robotically assisted and for 83% of the screws in the fluoroscopic group respectively (p = 0.8). Grade C and D screws, considered as misplacements, accounted for 4.7% of all robotically inserted screws and 7.8% of the fluoroscopically inserted screws (p = 0.71). The current study did not allow to state that robotically assisted screw placement supersedes the conventional fluoroscopy assisted technique, although the literature is more optimistic about the former.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography vs. conventional autopsy: advantages and inconveniences of each method.

PURPOSE: Postmortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) was introduced into forensic investigations a few years ago. It provides reliable images that can be consulted at any time. Conventional autopsy remains the reference standard for defining the cause of death, but provides only limited possibility of a second examination. This study compares these two procedures and discusses findings that can be detected exclusively using each method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study compared radiological reports from PMCTA to reports from conventional autopsy for 50 forensic autopsy cases. Reported findings from autopsy and PMCTA were extracted and compared to each other. PMCTA was performed using a modified heart-lung machine and the oily contrast agent Angiofil® (Fumedica AG, Muri, Switzerland). RESULTS: PMCTA and conventional autopsy would have drawn similar conclusions regarding causes of death. Nearly 60 % of all findings were visualized with both techniques. PMCTA demonstrates a higher sensitivity for identifying skeletal and vascular lesions. However, vascular occlusions due to postmortem blood clots could be falsely assumed to be vascular lesions. In contrast, conventional autopsy does not detect all bone fractures or the exact source of bleeding. Conventional autopsy provides important information about organ morphology and remains the only way to diagnose a vital vascular occlusion with certitude. CONCLUSION: Overall, PMCTA and conventional autopsy provide comparable findings. However, each technique presents advantages and disadvantages for detecting specific findings. To correctly interpret findings and clearly define the indications for PMCTA, these differences must be understood.

Identification of Mycobacteria by Thin Layer Chromatographic Analysis of Mycolic Acids and Conventional Biochemical Method: Four Years of Experience

Mycolic acids analysis by thin-layer chromatography (TLC) has been employed by several laboratories worldwide as a method for fast identification of mycobacteria. This method was introduced in Brazil by our laboratory in 1992 as a routine identification technique. Up to the present, 861 strains isolated were identified by mycolic acids TLC and by standard biochemical tests; 61% out of these strains came as clinical samples, 4% isolated from frogs and 35% as environmental samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains identified by classical methods were confirmed by their mycolic acids contents (I, III and IV). The method allowed earlier differentiation of M. avium complex - MAC (mycolic acids I, IV and VI) from M. simiae (acids I, II and IV), both with similar biochemical properties. The method also permitted to distinguish M. fortuitum (acids I and V) from M. chelonae (acids I and II) , and to detect mixed mycobacterial infections cases as M. tuberculosis with MAC and M. fortuitum with MAC. Concluding, four years experience shows that mycolic acids TLC is an easy, reliable, fast and inexpensive method, an important tool to put together conventional mycobacteria identification methods.

Study of gene flow through a hybrid zone in the common shrew (Sorex araneus) using microsatellites

The common shrew (Sorer araneus) is subdivided into several chromosomal races. As hybrid zones between them have been characterized, this organism is of particular interest in studying the role of chromosomes in speciation. Six microsatellite loci were used to evaluate the level of gene how in the S. araneus hybrid zone between the Cordon and Valais races. Most of these loci were very polymorphic, the total number of alleles detected per locus ranging from 3 to 20. Using Mantel tests, we showed that the effect of rivers as barriers to gene flow is less important at this sampling scale. The effect of the chromosomal race is of particular importantance in diminishing gene flow.

Mechanisms of reproductive isolation between an ant species of hybrid origin and one of its parents.

The establishment of new species by hybridization is difficult because it requires the development of reproductive isolation (RI) in sympatry to escape the homogenizing effects of gene flow from the parental species. Here we investigated the role of two pre- and two postzygotic mechanisms of RI in a system comprising two interdependent Pogonomyrmex harvester ant lineages (the H1 and H2 lineages) of hybrid origin and one of their parental species (P. rugosus). Similar to most other ants, P. rugosus is characterized by an environmental system of caste determination with female brood developing either into queens or workers depending on nongenetic factors. By contrast, there is a strong genetic component to caste determination in the H1 and H2 lineages because the developmental fate of female brood depends on the genetic origin of the parents, with interlineage eggs developing into workers and intralineage eggs developing into queens. The study of a mixed mating aggregation revealed strong differences in mating flight timing between P. rugosus and the two lineages as a first mechanism of RI. A second important prezygotic mechanism was assortative mating. Laboratory experiments also provided support for one of the two investigated mechanisms of postzygotic isolation. The majority of offspring produced from the few matings between P. rugosus and the lineages aborted at the egg stage. This hybrid inviability was under maternal influence, with hybrids produced by P. rugosus queens being always inviable whereas a small proportion of H2 lineage queens produced large numbers of adult hybrid offspring. Finally, we found no evidence that genetic caste determination acted as a second postzygotic mechanism reducing gene flow between P. rugosus and the H lineages. The few viable P. rugosus-H hybrids were not preferentially shunted into functionally sterile workers but developed into both workers and queens. Overall, these results reveal that the nearly complete (99.5%) RI between P. rugosus and the two hybrid lineages stems from the combination of two typical prezygotic mechanisms (mating time divergence and assortative mating) and one postzygotic mechanism (hybrid inviability).