Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Diagnóstico da Leishmaniose Tegumentar Americana utilizando a saliva coletada com swab

As leishmanioses caracterizam-se por um espectro de doenças distribuídas endemicamente em regiões tropicais e subtropicais do mundo. A obtenção de material biológico para análise diagnóstica apresenta cuidados cruciais ao paciente, por se tratar de um processo invasivo, passível de inflamação, e podendo haver reativação da doença, em alguns casos. Diante do avanço das técnicas moleculares e da utilização de alguns fluidos biológicos para o diagnóstico da Leishmaniose Tegumentar Americana (LTA), cogitou-se a possibilidade da identificação de DNA de Leishmania spp. em saliva através do método de coleta de swab, sendo contribuinte para o avanço no diagnóstico laboratorial. Assim, o propósito do estudo foi a identificação de DNA de Leishmania spp. a partir do diagnóstico molecular. Foram incluídos no estudo os pacientes que apresentaram lesões ativas, diagnósticos clínicos para LTA, antecedentes epidemiológicos compatíveis e não possuíam lesões cutâneo mucosas. O diagnóstico laboratorial envolveu a abordagem parasitológica através da pesquisa direta do parasito em amostras escarificadas de lesões, enquanto que o molecular compreendeu a extração do DNA das amostras de biópsia e swab salivar, seguidas da reação de PCR convencional (cPCR) e PCR em tempo real (qPCR). Foram investigados 40 pacientes com LTA havendo ocorrência de DNA do parasito em 10 amostras de saliva com cPCR, e 36 amostras utilizando qPCR. Em 28 amostras de biópsias também foi possível a detecção do DNA de Leishmania spp. e em 35 amostras de escarificado de lesão foram encontradas formas amastigotas do parasito, através de pesquisa direta. Na comparação entre os métodos propostos, a biópsia apresentou uma média de 50 por cento de compatibilidade em relação a cPCR e 67,5 por cento para a qPCR. A análise comparativa observou entre o diagnóstico parasitológico e os diagnósticos moleculares uma concordância de 32,5 por cento (14/40) em relação a cPCR, enquanto que a qPCR obteve 75,5 por cento (31/40) de concordância. Considerando a sensibilidade das técnicas de PCR utilizadas e o procedimento de coleta, através de swab advindo de fluidos salivares, os resultados demonstram a viabilidade do método de coleta de Leishmania spp. como uma nova abordagem diagnóstica auxiliar para a LTA, com benefícios à saúde do paciente

Morphometric analysis of aeolian bedforms in the Namib Sand Sea using ASTER data

The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) has made elevation data at 30 m spatial resolution freely available, enabling reinvestigation of morphometric relationships derived from limited field data using much larger sample sizes. These data are used to analyse a range of morphometric relationships derived for dunes (between dune height, spacing, and equivalent sand thickness) in the Namib Sand Sea, which was chosen because there are a number of extant studies that could be used for comparison with the results. The relative accuracy of GDEM for capturing dune height and shape was tested against multiple individual ASTER DEM scenes and against field surveys, highlighting the smoothing of the dune crest and resultant underestimation of dune height, and the omission of the smallest dunes, because of the 30 m sampling of ASTER DEM products. It is demonstrated that morphometric relationships derived from GDEM data are broadly comparable with relationships derived by previous methods, across a range of different dune types. The data confirm patterns of dune height, spacing and equivalent sand thickness mapped previously in the Namib Sand Sea, but add new detail to these patterns.

Organic food: what we know (and do not know) about consumers

This paper reports on the latest contributions to over 20 years of research on organic food consumers. There is a general consensus in the literature on the reasons why people buy organic food. However, there is also a gap between consumers’ generally positive attitude toward organic food and their relatively low level of actual purchases. Product differentiation based on intangible features, such as credence attributes such as organic, in fast-moving consumer goods categories is enjoying rapid growth. However, there are many difficulties with research in this area, including the errors inherent in research that relies on consumer self-reporting methodologies. Further, in relation to organic food, there is a divergence between consumers’ perception of its superior health features and scientific evidence. Fresh fruits and vegetables are of vital importance to the organic sector as they are the entry point for many customers and account for one-third of sales. Further, although there is a small proportion of dedicated organic food buyers, most sales come from the majority of buyers who switch between conventional and organic food purchases. This paper identifies the practical implications for generic organic food marketing campaigns, as well as for increasing sales of specific products. It concludes with suggested priorities for further research.

The role of myeloid receptors on murine plasmacytoid dendritic cells in induction of type I interferon

This study tested the hypothesis that a set of predominantly myeloid restricted receptors (F4/80, CD36, Dectin-1, CD200 receptor and mannan binding lectins) and the broadly expressed CD200 played a role in a key function of plasmacytoid DC (pDC), virally induced type I interferon (IFN) production. The Dectin-1 ligands zymosan, glucan phosphate and the anti-Dectin-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) 2A11 had no effect on influenza virus induced IFNα/β production by murine splenic pDC. However, mannan, a broad blocking reagent against mannose specific receptors, inhibited IFNα/β production by pDC in response to inactivated influenza virus. Moreover, viral glycoproteins (influenza virus haemagglutinin and HIV-1 gp120) stimulated IFNα/β production by splenocytes in a mannan-inhibitable manner, implicating the function of a lectin in glycoprotein induced IFN production. Lastly, the effect of CD200 on IFN induction was investigated. CD200 knock-out macrophages produced more IFNα than wild-type macrophages in response to polyI:C, a MyD88-independent stimulus, consistent with CD200's known inhibitory effect on myeloid cells. In contrast, blocking CD200 with an anti-CD200 mAb resulted in reduced IFNα production by pDC-containing splenocytes in response to CpG and influenza virus (MyD88-dependent stimuli). This suggests there could be a differential effect of CD200 on MyD88 dependent and independent IFN induction pathways in pDC and macrophages. This study supports the hypothesis that a mannan-inhibitable lectin and CD200 are involved in virally induced type I IFN induction.

A mechanism for the effect of tropospheric jet structure on the annular mode-like response to stratospheric forcing

For many climate forcings the dominant response of the extratropical circulation is a latitudinal shift of the tropospheric mid-latitude jets. The magnitude of this response appears to depend on climatological jet latitude in general circulation models (GCMs): lower latitude jets exhibit a larger shift. The reason for this latitude dependence is investigated for a particular forcing, heating of the equatorial stratosphere, which shifts the jet poleward. Spin-up ensembles with a simplified GCM are used to examine the evolution of the response for five different jet structures. These differ in the latitude of the eddy-driven jet, but have similar sub-tropical zonal winds. It is found that lower latitude jets exhibit a larger response due to stronger tropospheric eddy-mean flow feedbacks. A dominant feedback responsible for enhancing the poleward shift is an enhanced equatorward refraction of the eddies, resulting in an increased momentum flux, poleward of the low latitude critical line. The sensitivity of feedback strength to jet structure is associated with differences in the coherence of this behaviour across the spectrum of eddy phase speeds. In the configurations used, the higher latitude jets have a wider range of critical latitude locations. This reduces the coherence of the momentum flux anomalies associated with different phase speeds, with low phase speeds opposing the effect of high phase speeds. This suggests that, for a given sub-tropical zonal wind strength, the latitude of the eddy driven jet affects the feedback through its influence on the width of the region of westerly winds and the range of critical latitudes on the equatorward flank of the jet.

'In practice it doesn't always work out like that.' Undergraduate experiences in a research community of practice

This paper examines the extent to which a structured undergraduate research intervention, UROP, permits undergraduate students early access to legitimate peripheral participation (LPP) in a research community of practice. Accounts of placement experiences suggest that UROP affords rich possibilities for engagement with research practice. Undergraduates tread a path of gaining access to mature practice while also building their own independence, participating in work that they see matters to the community and making gains in use of a shared research repertoire. Students place UROP experiences in a contrasting frame to research exercises experienced during degree programmes; their sense of the authenticity of the research experienced through UROP emerges as a key element of these accounts. The data generate the interesting question that the degree of engagement with mature practice may account for more of the gain from UROP than simply the quantity of contact other researchers.

Acidity controls on dissolved organic carbon mobility in organic soils

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters have increased across much of Europe and North America, with implications for the terrestrial carbon balance, aquatic ecosystem functioning, water treatment costs and human health. Over the past decade, many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, from changing climate and land-management to eutrophication and acid deposition. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a reliance on correlative analyses of time-series data, and a lack of robust experimental testing of proposed mechanisms. In a four-year, four-site replicated field experiment involving both acidifying and de-acidifying treatments, we tested the hypothesis that DOC leaching was previously suppressed by high levels of soil acidity in peat and organo-mineral soils, and therefore that observed DOC increases a consequence of decreasing soil acidity. We observed a consistent, positive relationship between DOC and acidity change at all sites. Responses were described by similar hyperbolic relationships between standardised changes in DOC and hydrogen ion concentrations at all sites, suggesting potentially general applicability. These relationships explained a substantial proportion of observed changes in peak DOC concentrations in nearby monitoring streams, and application to a UK-wide upland soil pH dataset suggests that recovery from acidification alone could have led to soil solution DOC increases in the range 46-126% by habitat type since 1978. Our findings raise the possibility that changing soil acidity may have wider impacts on ecosystem carbon balances. Decreasing sulphur deposition may be accelerating terrestrial carbon loss, and returning surface waters to a natural, high-DOC condition.

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments

Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the ‘drought’ simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability.