Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

How effective is dog culling in controlling zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis? a critical evaluation of the science, politics and ethics behind this public health policy

INTRODUCTION: Zoonotic kala-azar, a lethal disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania is considered out of control in parts of the world, particularly in Brazil, where transmission has spread to cities throughout most of the territory and mortality presents an increasing trend. Although a highly debatable measure, the Brazilian government regularly culls seropositive dogs to control the disease. Since control is failing, critical analysis concerning the actions focused on the canine reservoir was conducted. METHODS: In a review of the literature, a historical perspective focusing mainly on comparisons between the successful Chinese and Soviet strategies and the Brazilian approach is presented. In addition, analyses of the principal studies regarding the role of dogs as risk factors to humans and of the main intervention studies regarding the efficacy of the dog killing strategy were undertaken. Brazilian political reaction to a recently published systematic review that concluded that the dog culling program lacked efficiency and its effect on public policy were also reviewed. RESULTS: No firm evidence of the risk conferred by the presence of dogs to humans was verified; on the contrary, a lack of scientific support for the policy of killing dogs was confirmed. A bias for distorting scientific data towards maintaining the policy of culling animals was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Since there is no evidence that dog culling diminishes visceral leishmaniasis transmission, it should be abandoned as a control measure. Ethical considerations have been raised regarding distorting scientific results and the killing of animals despite minimal or absent scientific evidence

Impact of an intervention in the use of sequential antibiotic therapy in a Brazilian university hospital

INTRODUCTION: Sequential antibiotic therapy (SAT) is safe and economical. However, the unnecessary use of intravenous (IV) administration usually occurs. The objective of this work was to get to know the effectiveness of an intervention to implement the SAT in a teaching hospital in Brazil. METHODS: This was a prospective and interventional study, historically controlled, and was conducted in the Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, a high complexity teaching hospital having 503 beds. In each of the periods, from 04/04/05 to 07/20/05 (pre-intervention) and from 09/24/07 to 12/20/07 (intervention), 117 patients were evaluated. After the pre-intervention period, guidelines were developed which were implemented during the intervention period along with educational measures and a reminder system added to the patients' prescription. RESULTS: In the pre-intervention and intervention periods, the IV antibiotics were used as treatment for a average time of 14.8 and 11.8 days, respectively. Ceftriaxone was the antibiotic most prescribed in both periods (23.4% and 21.6% respectively). Starting from the first prescription of antibiotics, the average length of hospitalization time was 21.8 and 17.5 days, respectively. The SAT occurred only in 4 and 5 courses of treatment, respectively, and 12.8% and 18.8% of the patients died in the respective periods. CONCLUSIONS: Under the presented conditions, the evaluated intervention strategy is ineffective in promoting the exchange of the antibiotic administration from IV to oral treatment (SAT).

Non-biting flying insects as carriers of pathogenic bacteria in a Brazilian hospital

IntroductionInsects have been described as mechanical vectors of nosocomial infections.MethodsNon-biting flying insects were collected inside a pediatric ward and neonatal-intensive care unit (ICU) of a Brazilian tertiary hospital.ResultsMost (86.4%) of them were found to carry one or more species of bacteria on their external surfaces. The bacteria isolated were Gram-positive bacilli (68.2%) or cocci (40.9%), and Gram-negative bacilli (18.2%).ConclusionsInsects collected inside a hospital were carrying pathogenic bacteria; therefore, one must consider the possibility they may act as mechanical vectors of infections, in especially for debilitated or immune-compromised patients in the hospital environments where the insects were collected.

Arboviral diseases in the Western Brazilian Amazon: a perspective and analysis from a tertiary health & research center in Manaus, State of Amazonas

The Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado (FMT-HVD), located in Manaus, the capital of the State of Amazonas (Western Brazilian Amazon), is a pioneering institution in this region regarding the syndromic surveillance of acute febrile illness, including arboviral infections. Based on the data from patients at the FMT-HVD, we have detected recurrent outbreaks in Manaus by the four dengue serotypes in the past 15 years, with increasing severity of the disease. This endemicity has culminated in the simultaneous circulation of all four serotypes in 2011, the first time this has been reported in Brazil. Between 1996 and 2009, 42 cases of yellow fever (YF) were registered in the State of Amazonas, and 71.4% (30/42) were fatal. Since 2010, no cases have been reported. Because the introduction of the yellow fever virus into a large city such as Manaus, which is widely infested by Aedes mosquitoes, may pose a real risk of a yellow fever outbreak, efforts to maintain an appropriate immunization policy for the populace are critical. Manaus has also suffered silent outbreaks of Mayaro and Oropouche fevers lately, most of which were misdiagnosed as dengue fever. The tropical conditions of the State of Amazonas favor the existence of other arboviruses capable of producing human disease. Under this real threat, represented by at least 4 arboviruses producing human infections in Manaus and in other neighboring countries, it is important to develop an efficient public health surveillance strategy, including laboratories that are able to make proper diagnoses of arboviruses.

An Equation for the Prediction of Oxygen Consumption in a Brazilian Population

Background: The equations predicting maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max or peak) presently in use in cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) softwares in Brazil have not been adequately validated. These equations are very important for the diagnostic capacity of this method. Objective: Build and validate a Brazilian Equation (BE) for prediction of VO2peak in comparison to the equation cited by Jones (JE) and the Wasserman algorithm (WA). Methods: Treadmill evaluation was performed on 3119 individuals with CPET (breath by breath). The construction group (CG) of the equation consisted of 2495 healthy participants. The other 624 individuals were allocated to the external validation group (EVG). At the BE (derived from a multivariate regression model), age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity level were considered. The same equation was also tested in the EVG. Dispersion graphs and Bland-Altman analyses were built. Results: In the CG, the mean age was 42.6 years, 51.5% were male, the average BMI was 27.2, and the physical activity distribution level was: 51.3% sedentary, 44.4% active and 4.3% athletes. An optimal correlation between the BE and the CPET measured VO2peak was observed (0.807). On the other hand, difference came up between the average VO2peak expected by the JE and WA and the CPET measured VO2peak, as well as the one gotten from the BE (p = 0.001). Conclusion: BE presents VO2peak values close to those directly measured by CPET, while Jones and Wasserman differ significantly from the real VO2peak.

Fertilizer policy in the developing countries: the case of Brazil

This paper deals initially with the role of mineral fertilizers in increasing agricultural production: the relationship between the two variables is illustrated within global, regional national and local contexts. The pattern and trends in fertilizer usage in Brazil are presented next, namely: increase in consumption in the period 1950/72; regional distribution; consumption as related to crops and cultivated land. It is shown that in less than a quarter or century fertilizer use has increased in the country nearly 12 fold, whereas world consumption was raised 7 fold, thus exceeding estimates based in several criteria. Steps taken to secure the raise in fertilizer consumption above the historical trend are discussed: research experience for outlining fertilization recomendations; the transfer of the knowledge to the farmer by the extension work both official and private; the credit policy and special incentives for the purchase of fertilizer; the national policy for minumum proces of agricultural products; the implantation of a national fertilizer industry. It is considered that the Brazilian experience adapted to similar local conditions in other developing countries, presents a possibility for achieving beneficial results without inflationary reflexes in the economy.

Recent brazilian experience on farmer reaction and crop response to fertilizer use

(1) In the period 1965/77 fertilizer consumption in Brazil increased nearly fifteen foild from circa 200,000 tons of N + P2O5 + K2O to 3 million tons. During the fifteen years extending from 1950 to 1964 usage of the primary macronutrients was raised by a factor of 2 only. (2) Several explanations are given for the remarkable increase, namely: an experimental background which supplied data for recommendations of rates, time and type of application; a convenient governmental policy for minimum prices and rural credit; capacity of the industry to meet the demand of the fertilizer market; an adequate mechanism for the diffusion of the practice of fertilizer use to the farmer. (3) The extension work, which has caused a permanent change in the aptitude towards fertilization, was carried out in the traditional way by salesmen supported by a technical staff, as well as by agronomists of the official services. (4) Two new programs were started and conducted in a rather short time, both putting emphasis on the relatively new technology of fertilizer use. (5) The first program, conducted in the Southern part of the country, extended lab and green house work supplemented by a few field trials to small land owners - the so called "operação tatú" (operation armadillo). (6) The seconde program, covering a larger problem area in the Northeast and in Central Brazil, began directly in field as thousands of demonstrations and simple experiments with the participation of local people whose involvement was essential for the success of the initiative; in this case the official extension services, both foreign and national sources of funds, and universities did participate under the leadership of the Brazilian Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (ANDA). (7) It is felt that the Brazilian experience gained thereof could be useful to other countries under similar conditions.

Morphology of three Brazilian species of Semiotus (Coleoptera, Elateridae, Semiotinae)

The morphology of Semiotus distinctus (Herbst, 1806), S. intermedius (Herbst, 1806) and S. ligneus (Linnaeus, 1767), including mouthparts and male and female genitalia, is described and illustrated. A comparative analysis of the characters related to the external morphology, mouthparts and male and female genitalia is also included.

When ESDP confronts ENP: security sector reform as a bridge in the EU’s foreign policy

The European Neighbourhood Policy’s birth has taken place in parallel with the renewed momentum of the European Security and Defence Policy, which has launched 14 operations since 2003. Both policies’ instruments have converged in the neighbouring area covered by ENP: Georgia, in the East and the Palestinian Territories in the South. In both cases, the Security Sector Reform strategies have been the main focus for ESDP and an important objective for ENP. In this paper, two objectives are pursued: first, to assess the EU’s involvement in both cases in SSR terms; and second, to analyse whether the convergence of ESDP operations with a broader EU neighbourhood policy implies that the former has become an instrument for the a EU external action.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Habits in Consumption

While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a humpshaped output response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies, there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly,external habits) on optimal policy. In this paper we consider the implications of external habits for optimal monetary policy, when those habits either exist at the level of the aggregate basket of consumption goods (‘superficial’ habits) or at the level of individual goods (‘deep’ habits: see Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2006)). External habits generate an additional distortion in the economy, which implies that the flex-price equilibrium will no longer be efficient and that policy faces interesting new trade-offs and potential stabilisation biases. Furthermore, the endogenous mark-up behaviour, which emerges when habits are deep, can also significantly affect the optimal policy response to shocks, as well as dramatically affecting the stabilising properties of standard simple rules.

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Scanning and transmission electron microscopy of the tegument of Paranaella luquei Kohn, Baptista-Farias & Cohen, 2000 (Microcotylidae, Monogenea), parasite of a Brazilian catfish, Hypostomus regani

The surface topography and ultrastructure of the tegument of Paranaella luquei Kohn, Baptista-Farias & Cohen, 2000, a microcotylid monogenean parasite from the gills of Hypostomus regani (Ihering, 1905) (Loricariidae) was studied by scanning (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). By SEM, it was observed that the tegument presents transversal ridges, forming folds in the ventral and dorsal surfaces and microvillous-like tegumental projections in the anterior and median regions of body. These projections were also observed by TEM. The tegument is made up of a syncytium delimited by apical and basal plasma membranes, containing inclusion bodies and mitochondria, connected to the nucleated region by means of cytoplasmatic processes. The tegumental cells present a well developed nucleus and cytoplasm containing inclusion bodies, similar to those found on the external layer, mitochondria, rough endoplasmatic reticulum and free ribossomes.