"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Air temperature trends in California

"Greenhouse heating" of the atmosphere due to trace gases seems apparent to those who model with averages but not to those who examine individual temperature records. Temperature trends are on the minds of all those concerned with the environmental influence of the increasing human population. The big problem remains - where and how do we take the Earth's temperature? ... In California, there are 112 temperature records for 1910 to 1989; all of them were used here to examine trends in annual temperature.

One hundred years of rainfall trends in California

This paper is an examination of precipitation trends in California for 100 years based on 96 rain records. The study resulted from an attempt to develop a wetness index for the San Francisco Bay area, where declining rainfall trends indicated a lot more rainfall in the first 50 years of the study period. A regular pattern of decline was found in California coastal stations, concurrent with an increasing trend at inland stations.

Climate forcing of Pacific herring recruitment and growth in southern British Columbia

Over the last 50 years, much of the variability in ocean climate and herring recruitment has occurred at two dominant periods centered around 5 and 16 years. Herring growth has also exhibited a dominant 5- and 18-year periodicity. A recent analysis of a number of relevant time series suggests that interannual variations in oceanic conditions off the west coast of Vancouver Island affect survival of herring and their principal predator, Pacific hake, which also exhibits a marked 16-year oscillation in abundance. Thus the dynamics of the herring stock are modulated by a combination of climate and predator forcing. Much of the interannual variation in herring growth is centered around the 5-year (moderate ENSO period) and 16-year (strong ENSO period) ocean climate oscillations and the 16-year recruitment oscillation.

Upwelling, offshore transport, and the availability of rockfish in central California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We used the diet of a seabird, the common murre (Uria aalge), nesting on Southeast Farallon Island and feeding in the Gulf of the Farallones, California, as an index to abundance of juvenile rockfish, then related fish abundance to indices of turbulence and upwelling over an 18-year period, 1973-1990. Strong, persistent upwelling or downwelling led to reduced availability of fish in the study area, in contrast to great abundance when upwelling was mild or pulsed. ... On the basis of our study, one effect might be that fishes thought strong enough to resist Ekman transport could be transported out of normal areas of recruitment.

The role of direct observation in predicting climatic change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Ocean Analysis and Prediction (COAP) in Monterey, California, has assembled information to suggest how NOAA's facilities for observing the ocean and atmosphere might be applied to studies of paleoclimate. This effort resulted, indirectly, in several projects that combine direct observations of the ocean/atmosphere system with studies of past climate of the Pacific region. This article considers concepts that link the two kinds of investigations. It defines the thesis that direct observation of systems that generate paleoclimatic information is the nexus upon which understanding of climatic variability begins and upon which prediction of climate and global change depends.

Initial global perspective of climate for the last thousand years: the ice core record

Climatic and environmental records from low, middle, and high latitude ice cores greatly increase our knowledge of the course of past events. This historical perspective is essential to predict climatic oscillations, dominated as they may be by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Forcing factors, internal and external, that have operated in the past will continue to influence the course of events.

Snow accumulation time series and their climatic interpretation

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Several snow accumulation time series derived from ice cores and extending over 3 to 5 centuries are examined for spatial and temporal climatic information. ... A significant observation is the widespread depression of net snow accumulation during the latter part of the "Little Ice Age". This initially suggests sea surface temperatures were significantly depressed during the same period. However, prior to this, the available core records indicate generally higher than average precipitation rates. This also implies that influences such as shifted storm tracks or a dustier atmosphere may have been involved. Without additional spatial data coverage, these observations should properly be studied using a coupled (global) ocean/atmosphere GCM.

Coastal climate reflected in carbon-13/carbon-12 ratio of organic carbon in varved sediment from Santa Barbara basin

A 1844-1987 time-series of carbon stable isotope ratios from dated sedimentary total organic carbon from the center of the Santa Barbara basin is compared with historical climate and oceanographic records. Carbon derived from carbon-13-depleted phytoplankton and carbon-13-enriched kelp appear responsible for a large part of the isotopic variance in sedimentary total organic carbon. El Niño/Southern Oscillation events are recorded by the isotopic response of marine organic carbon in sediments.

Eastern tropical Pacific corals monitor low latitude climate of the past 400 years

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have measured coral growth band thickness and skeletal stable isotopic composition through a 371-year transect (AD 1583-1954) from a massive specimen of Pavona clavus from the Galápagos Islands. ... We observe a general cooling trend during 1860-1954, corresponding to the end of the Little Ice Age, an interval characterized by general warming at many mid-latitude sites. Variance at sunspot cycle frequencies in growth rate, stable isotopic, and trace element composition implies a direct or indirect link between the solar cycle and climate modulation in the eastern Pacific.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Geochemical evidence for enhanced upwelling and organic productivity during the late Quaternary on the continental margin of northern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Laminated sediments are preserved in upper Pleistocene sections of cores collected on the continental slope at water depths within the present oxygen-minimum zone from at least as far north as the Klamath River and as far south as Point Sur. Comparison of sediment components in the laminae with those delivered to sediment traps as pelagic marine "snow" show the dark/light lamination couplets are indeed annual (varves). ... The presence of carbon-, sulfur-, and metal-rich sediments, as well as lack of bioturbation, all support the theory that the oxygen-minimum zone in the northeastern Pacific Ocean was more intense - in fact, anoxic - during the late Pleistocene in response to greater coastal upwelling and higher organic productivity.

The Younger Dryas and millenial-scale oceanographic variability in the Sulu Sea, tropical western Pacific

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A high resolution, AMS carbon-14-dated sediment record from the Sulu Sea clearly indicates the Younger Dryas climatic event affected the western equatorial Pacific. Presence of the Younger Dryas in the tropical western Pacific indicates this climatic event is not restricted to the North Atlantic nor to high latitudes, but is global in extent.

High- and low-latitude climate interactions: evidence for enhanced aridity of Asian monsoon dust source areas after 2.4 MYR from ODP Leg 117 magnetic susceptibility data

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Whole-core magnetic susceptibility can sometimes be used as a rapid and sensitive indicator of variations in the concentration of terrigenous material. We apply this approach to study the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climatic cycles of terrigenous sedimentation at Ocean Drilling Program Site 721, on the Owen Ridge in the Arabian Sea.

Stable isotopes in paleosols and origins of the Asian monsoon

The stable isotopic composition of buried soil carbonate and organic matter from northern Pakistan and Nepal can be used to reconstruct aspects of the paleoecology of riverine floodplain ecosystems over the past 17 Myr. Probable dry woodland dominated the floodplain biomass of large rivers ancestral to the modern Indus and Ganges up to 7.3 Myr. Between 7.3 and about 6 Myr, tropical grasses gradually displaced woodland and have dominated floodplain biomasses to the present. The paleovegetational transition beginning about 7.3 Myr likely signals the onset of the strongly seasonal precipitation pattern that typifies the monsoonal climate of the region today. One possible analog to the dry woodland soils of the Miocene are found under the Sal woodlands of the northern Indian subcontinent, while undisturbed modern analogs to the Plio-Pleistocene floodplain grasslands can still be found in the Chitwan area of southern Nepal.