Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges in the quantification and interpretation of spike-LFP relationships

Brain signals often show fluctuations in particular frequency bands, which are highly conserved across species and are associated with specific behavioural states. Such rhythmic patterns can be captured in the local field potential (LFP), which is obtained by low-pass filtering the extracellular signal recorded from microelectrodes. However, LFP also captures other neural processes that are associated with spikes, such as synaptic events preceding a spike, low-frequency component of the action potential (spike bleed-through'') and spike afterhyperpolarization, which pose difficulties in the estimation of the amplitude and phase of the rhythm with respect to spikes. Here we discuss these issues and different techniques that have been used to dissociate the rhythm from other neural events in the LFP.

Differences in host species relationships and biogeographic influences produce contrasting patterns of prevalence, community composition and genetic structure in two genera of avian malaria parasites in southern Melanesia

1. Host-parasite interactions have the potential to influence broadscale ecological and evolutionary processes, levels of endemism, divergence patterns and distributions in host populations. Understanding the mechanisms involved requires identification of the factors that shape parasite distribution and prevalence. 2. A lack of comparative information on community-level host-parasite associations limits our understanding of the role of parasites in host population divergence processes. Avian malaria (haemosporidian) parasites in bird communities offer a tractable model system to examine the potential for pathogens to influence evolutionary processes in natural host populations. 3. Using cytochrome b variation, we characterized phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of two genera of avian haemosporidian parasites, Plasmodium and Haemoproteus, and analysed biogeographic patterns of lineages across islands and avian hosts, in southern Melanesian bird communities to identify factors that explain patterns of infection. 4. Plasmodium spp. displayed isolation-by-distance effects, a significant amount of genetic variation distributed among islands but insignificant amounts among host species and families, and strong local island effects with respect to prevalence. Haemoproteus spp. did not display isolation-by-distance patterns, showed marked structuring of genetic variation among avian host species and families, and significant host species prevalence patterns. 5. These differences suggest that Plasmodium spp. infection patterns were shaped by geography and the abiotic environment, whereas Haemoproteus spp. infection patterns were shaped predominantly by host associations. Heterogeneity in the complement and prevalence of parasite lineages infecting local bird communities likely exposes host species to a mosaic of spatially divergent disease selection pressures across their naturally fragmented distributions in southern Melanesia. Host associations for Haemoproteus spp. indicate a capacity for the formation of locally co-adapted host-parasite relationships, a feature that may limit intraspecific gene flow or range expansions of closely related host species.

De-DUFing the DUFs: Deciphering distant evolutionary relationships of Domains of Unknown Function using sensitive homology detection methods

Background: In the post-genomic era where sequences are being determined at a rapid rate, we are highly reliant on computational methods for their tentative biochemical characterization. The Pfam database currently contains 3,786 families corresponding to ``Domains of Unknown Function'' (DUF) or ``Uncharacterized Protein Family'' (UPF), of which 3,087 families have no reported three-dimensional structure, constituting almost one-fourth of the known protein families in search for both structure and function. Results: We applied a `computational structural genomics' approach using five state-of-the-art remote similarity detection methods to detect the relationship between uncharacterized DUFs and domain families of known structures. The association with a structural domain family could serve as a start point in elucidating the function of a DUF. Amongst these five methods, searches in SCOP-NrichD database have been applied for the first time. Predictions were classified into high, medium and low-confidence based on the consensus of results from various approaches and also annotated with enzyme and Gene ontology terms. 614 uncharacterized DUFs could be associated with a known structural domain, of which high confidence predictions, involving at least four methods, were made for 54 families. These structure-function relationships for the 614 DUF families can be accessed on-line at http://proline.biochem.iisc.ernet.in/RHD_DUFS/. For potential enzymes in this set, we assessed their compatibility with the associated fold and performed detailed structural and functional annotation by examining alignments and extent of conservation of functional residues. Detailed discussion is provided for interesting assignments for DUF3050, DUF1636, DUF1572, DUF2092 and DUF659. Conclusions: This study provides insights into the structure and potential function for nearly 20 % of the DUFs. Use of different computational approaches enables us to reliably recognize distant relationships, especially when they converge to a common assignment because the methods are often complementary. We observe that while pointers to the structural domain can offer the right clues to the function of a protein, recognition of its precise functional role is still `non-trivial' with many DUF domains conserving only some of the critical residues. It is not clear whether these are functional vestiges or instances involving alternate substrates and interacting partners. Reviewers: This article was reviewed by Drs Eugene Koonin, Frank Eisenhaber and Srikrishna Subramanian.

Scaling relationships in conical indentation of elastic perfectly plastic solids

Using dimensional analysis and finite element calculations we derive several scaling relationships for conical indentation into elastic-perfectly plastic solids. These scaling relationships provide new insights into the shape of indentation curves and form the basis for understanding indentation measurements, including nano- and micro-indentation techniques. They are also helpful as a guide to numerical and finite element calculations of conical indentation problems. Finally, the scaling relationships are used to reveal the general relationships between hardness, contact area, initial unloading slope, and mechanical properties of solids.

Can stress-strain relationships be obtained from indentation curves using conical and pyramidal indenters?

Applying the scaling relationships developed recently for conical indentation in elastic-plastic solids with work-hardening, we examine the question of whether stress-strain relationships of such solids can be uniquely determined by matching the calculated loading and unloading curves with that measured experimentally. We show that there can be multiple stress-strain curves for a given set of loading and unloading curves. Consequently, stress-strain relationships may not be uniquely determined from loading and unloading curves alone using a conical or pyramidal indenter.

Relationships between hardness, elastic modulus, and the work of indentation

The work done during indentation is examined using dimensional analysis and finite element calculations for conical indentation in elastic-plastic solids with work hardening. An approximate relationship between the ratio of hardness to elastic modulus and the ratio of irreversible work to total work in indentation is found. Consequently, the ratio of hardness to elastic modulus may be obtained directly from measuring the work of indentation. Together with a well-known relationship between elastic modulus, initial unloading slope, and contact area, a new method is then suggested for estimating the hardness and modulus of solids using instrumented indentation with conical or pyramidal indenters.

Scaling relationships in indentation of power-law creep solids using self-similar indenters

We use dimensional analysis to derive scaling relationships for self-similar indenters indenting solids that exhibit power-law creep. We identify the parameter that represents the indentation strain rate. The scaling relationships are applied to several types of indentation creep experiment with constant displacement rate, constant loading rate or constant ratio of loading rate over load. The predictions compare favourably with experimental observations reported in the literature. Finally, a connection is found between creep and 'indentation-size effect' (i.e. changing hardness with indentation depth or load).

Relationships Between Initial Unloading Slope, Contact Depth, and Mechanical Properties for Conical Indentation in Linear Viscoelastic Solids

Using analytical and finite element modeling, we examine the relationships between initial unloading slope, contact depth, and mechanical properties for spherical indentation in viscoelastic solids with either displacement or load as the independent variable. We then investigate whether the Oliver-Pharr method for determining the contact depth and contact radius, originally proposed for indentation in elastic and elastic-plastic solids, is applicable to spherical indentation in viscoelastic solids. Finally, the analytical and numerical results are used to answer questions raised in recent literature about measuring viscoelastic properties from instrumented spherical indentation experiments.

Mechanical Properties And Constitutive Relationships Of 30Crmnsia Steel Heated At High Rate

In this paper, the mechanical behavior of 30CrMnSiA steel after heating at a high rate are investigated experimentally and theoretically, including a detailed discussion of the effects of strain rate and temperature. Two constitutive models are presented to describe the mechanical response of this material after heating at a high rate, and verified by experimental results. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental Verification And Theoretical Analysis Of The Relationships Between Hardness, Elastic Modulus, And The Work Of Indentation

The relationship between hardness (H), reduced modulus (E-r), unloading work (W-u), and total work (W-t) of indentation is examined in detail experimentally and theoretically. Experimental study verifies the approximate linear relationship. Theoretical analysis confirms it. Furthermore, the solutions to the conical indentation in elastic-perfectly plastic solid, including elastic work (W-e), H, W-t, and W-u are obtained using Johnson's expanding cavity model and Lame solution. Consequently, it is found that the W-e should be distinguished from W-u, rather than their equivalence as suggested in ISO14577, and (H/E-r)/(W-u/W-t) depends mainly on the conical angle, which are also verified with numerical simulations. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.