When does ignorance make us smart? Additional factors guiding heuristic inference

“Fast & frugal” heuristics represent an appealing way of implementing bounded rationality and decision-making under pressure. The recognition heuristic is the simplest and most fundamental of these heuristics. Simulation and experimental studies have shown that this ignorance-driven heuristic inference can prove superior to knowledge based inference (Borges, Goldstein, Ortman & Gigerenzer, 1999; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002) and have shown how the heuristic could develop from ACT-R’s forgetting function (Schooler & Hertwig, 2005). Mathematical analyses also demonstrate that, under certain conditions, a “less-is-more effect” will always occur (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). The further analyses presented in this paper show, however, that these conditions may constitute a special case and that the less-is-more effect in decision-making is subject to the moderating influence of the number of options to be considered and the framing of the question.

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

A social justice scrutiny of the seating service experiences: what can we learn?

The paper presents the social justice findings from a study into the Australian  (wheelchair) seating service experience. As this study explored the insider's perspective, three participants' examples are shared (in the presentation) to demonstrate the benefits accorded to equality, equity and equal opportunity and the injustices experienced when denied;
- Brian* (pseudonym) a young Australian whose two accessories for his power chair changed his life.
- Donna* whose adult son was provided a heavy standard manual wheelchair instead of the power chair requested.
- Vince* a young self-employed businessman whose newly provided robust power chair is crimping his productivity.

Análise paleogeográfica evolutiva da região do Parque Estadual da Ilha do Cardoso (PEIC), litoral sul de São Paulo, como subsídio a ações de planejamento e conservação ambiental

Cardoso Island, settled in the south of paulista region, is characterized by its ecological importance due to the great biodiversity of Mata Atlântica and for accommodating several kinds of ecosystems as mangroves, which were considered by UNESCO as human natural ownership. The mangroves are among the most important marine ecosystems, known as warranty of biological productivity and diversity and supply of food and economical resources to the local population. Although the island has been transformed in a state park for preservation, it hasn’t become free from environmental impacts made by antropical activities. This way it was proposed a rebuilt of an evolutionary process in the region, having as an objective to subsidize programs of environmental conservation and planning , aiming to a sustainable development. For this it was used a isobasis methodological analyses where by the drainage channels and its confluences makes relative maps to the different base levels represented by the isobasis, characterizing itself by an attempt to rebuilt the preterit local landscape. There were elaborated eight maps referring to four orders of confluences met in the region of Cardoso Island and round it where you can conclude it is about an appropriate methodology to rebuilt preterits environments that specially aim to actions of environmental planning and conservation.

High-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability and environmental changes in the North Pacific using bivalve shells

Bivalve mollusk shells are useful tools for multi-species and multi-proxy paleoenvironmental reconstructions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Past environmental conditions can be reconstructed from shell growth and stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, which present an archive for temperature, freshwater fluxes and primary productivity. The purpose of this thesis is the reconstruction of Holocene climate and environmental variations in the North Pacific with a high spatial and temporal resolution using marine bivalve shells. This thesis focuses on several different Holocene time periods and multiple regions in the North Pacific, including: Japan, Alaska (AK), British Columbia (BC) and Washington State, which are affected by the monsoon, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such high-resolution proxy data from the marine realm of mid- and high-latitudes are still rare. Therefore, this study contributes to the optimization and verification of climate models. However, before using bivalves for environmental reconstructions and seasonality studies, life history traits must be well studied to temporally align and interpret the geochemical record. These calibration studies are essential to ascertain the usefulness of selected bivalve species as paleoclimate proxy archives. This work focuses on two bivalve species, the short-lived Saxidomus gigantea and the long-lived Panopea abrupta. Sclerochronology and oxygen isotope ratios of different shell layers of P. abrupta were studied in order to test the reliability of this species as a climate archive. The annual increments are clearly discernable in umbonal shell portions and the increments widths should be measured in these shell portions. A reliable reconstruction of paleotemperatures may only be achieved by exclusively sampling the outer shell layer of multiple contemporaneous specimens. Life history traits (e.g., timing of growth line formation, duration of the growing season and growth rates) and stable isotope ratios of recent S. gigantea from AK and BC were analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a growth-temperature model based on S. gigantea shells from Alaska was established, which provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). This approach allows the independent measurement of water temperature and salinity from variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of S. gigantea. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. The model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. The time period between 988 and 1447 cal yrs BP was characterized by colder (~1-2°C) and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers, and a likely much slower flowing ACC than at present. In contrast, the summers during the time interval of 599-1014 cal yrs BP were colder (up to 3°C) and fresher (1-2 PSU) than today. The Aleutian Low may have been stronger and the ACC was probably flowing faster during this time.

Calibration study of bivalve shells : implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The accretionary shells of bivalve mollusks can provide environmental information, such as water temperature, precipitation, freshwater fluxes, primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the form of variable growth rates and variable geochemical properties, such as stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. However, paleoenvironmental reconstructions are constrained by uncertainties about isotopic equilibrium fractionation during shell formation, which is generally acknowledged as a reasonable assumption for bivalves, but it has been disputed in several species. Furthermore, the variation in shell growth rates is accepted to rely on multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, food availability and salinity, but can differ from species to species. Therefore, it is necessary to perform species-specific calibration studies for both isotope proxies and shell growth rates before they can be used with confidence for environmental interpretations of the past. Accordingly, the principal objective of this Ph.D research is to examine the reliability of selected bivalve species, the long-lived Eurhomalea exalbida (Dillwyn), the short-lived and fast growing species Paphia undulata (Born 1778), and the freshwater mussel Margaritifera falcata (Gould 1850), as paleoenvironmental proxy archives.rnThe first part is focused on δ18Oshell and shell growth history of live-collected E. exalbida from the Falkland Islands. The most remarkable finding, however, is that E. exalbida formed its shell with an offset of -0.48‰ to -1.91‰ from the expected oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the ambient water. If this remained unnoticed, paleotemperature estimates would overestimate actual water temperatures by 2.1-8.3°C. With increasing ontogenetic age, the discrepancy between measured and reconstructed temperatures increased exponentially, irrespective of the seasonally varying shell growth rates. This study clearly demonstrates that, when the disequilibrium fractionation effect is taken into account, E. exalbida can serve as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the southern South America. The species therefore provides quantifiable temperature estimates, which yields new insights into long-term paleoclimate dynamics for mid to high latitudes on the southern hemisphere.rnThe stable carbon isotope of biogenic carbonates is generally considered to be useful for reconstruction of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. The δ13Cshell composition of E. exalbida was therefore, investigated in the second part of this study. This chapter focuses on inter-annual and intra-annual variations in δ13Cshell. Environmental records in δ13Cshell are found to be strongly obscured by changes in shell growth rates, even if removing the ontogenetic decreasing trend. This suggests that δ13Cshell in E. exalbida may not be useful as an environmental proxy, but a potential tool for ecological investigations. rnIn addition to long-lived bivalve species, short-lived species that secrete their shells extremely fast, can also be useful for environmental reconstructions, especially as a high-resolution recorder. Therefore, P. undulata from Daya Bay, South China Sea was utilized in Chapter 4 to evaluate and establish a potential proxy archive for past variations of the East Asian monsoon on shorter time-scales. The δ18Oshell can provide qualitative estimates of the amount of monsoonal rain and terrestrial runoff and the δ13Cshell likely reflect the relative amount of isotopically light terrestrial carbon that reaches the ocean during the summer monsoon season. Therefore, shells of P. undulata can provide serviceable proxy archives to reconstruct the frequency of exceptional summer monsoons in the past. The relative strength of monsoon-related precipitation and associated changes in ocean salinity and the δ13C ratios of the dissolved inorganic carbon signature (δ13CDIC) can be estimated from the δ18Oshell and δ13Cshell values as well as shell growth patterns. rnIn the final part, the freshwater pearl shell M. falcata from four rivers in British Columbia, Canada was preliminarily studied concerning the lifespans and the shell growth rates. Two groups separated by the Georgia Strait can be clearly distinguished. Specimens from the western group exhibit a shorter lifespan, while the eastern group live longer. Moreover, the average lifespan seems to decrease from south to north. The computed growth equations from the eastern and western groups differ as well. The western group exhibits a lower growth rate, while bivalves from the eastern group grow faster. The land use history seems to be responsible for the differences in lifespans of the specimens from the two groups. Differences in growth rate may be induced by differences in water temperature or nutrient input also related to the land use activities.

Ocean dynamics, not dust, have controlled equatorial Pacific productivity over the past 500,000 years

Biological productivity in the equatorial Pacific is relatively high compared with other low-latitude regimes, especially east of the dateline, where divergence driven by the trade winds brings nutrient rich waters of the Equatorial Undercurrent to the surface. The equatorial Pacific is one of the three principal high-nutrient low chlorophyll ocean regimes where biological utilization of nitrate and phosphate is limited, in part, by the availability of iron. Throughout most of the equatorial Pacific, upwelling of water from the Equatorial Undercurrent supplies far more dissolved iron than is delivered by dust, by as much as two orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, recent studies have inferred that the greater supply of dust during ice ages stimulated greater utilization of nutrients within the region of upwelling on the equator, thereby contributing to the sequestration of carbon in the ocean interior. Here we present proxy records for dust and for biological productivity over the past 500 ky at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to test the dust fertilization hypothesis. Dust supply peaked under glacial conditions, consistent with previous studies, whereas proxies of export production exhibit maxima during ice age terminations. Temporal decoupling between dust supply and biological productivity indicates that other factors, likely involving ocean dynamics, played a greater role than dust in regulating equatorial Pacific productivity.

Phytoplankton Scales of Variability in the California Current System: 2. Latitudinal Variability

The California Current System encompasses a southward flowing current which is perturbed by ubiquitous mesoscale variability. The extent to which latitudinal patterns of physical variability are reflected in the distribution of biological parameters is poorly known. To investigate the latitudinal distribution of chlorophyll variance, a wavelet analysis is applied to nearly 9 years (October 1997 to July 2006) of 1-km-resolution Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll concentration data at 5-day resolution. Peaks in the latitudinal distribution of chlorophyll variance coincide with features of the coastal topography. Maxima in variance are located offshore of Vancouver Island and downstream of Heceta Bank, Cape Blanco, Point Arena, and possibly Point Conception. An analysis of dominant wavelengths in the chlorophyll data reveals a transfer of energy into smaller scales is generated in the vicinity of the coastal capes. The latitudinal distribution of variance in sea level anomaly corresponds closely to the chlorophyll variance in the nearshore region (<100 km offshore), suggesting that the same processes determine the distribution of both. Farther offshore, there is no correspondence between latitudinal patterns of sea level anomaly and chlorophyll variance. This likely represents a transition from physical to biological control of the phytoplankton distribution.

(Table 1) Summary of accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) radiocarbon ages in ODP Sites 169-1033 and 169-1034

Continuous coring in Saanich Inlet (Ocean Drilling Program, ODP Leg 169S), British Columbia, Canada, yielded a detailed record of Late Quaternary climate, oceanography, marine productivity, and terrestrial vegetation. Two sites (1033 and 1034) were drilled to maximum depths of 105 and 118 m, recovering sediments ranging in age from 13,300 to less than 300 14C yr. Earliest sediments consist of dense, largely massive, gray glaciomarine muds with dropstones and sand and silt laminae deposited during the waning stages of glaciation. Deposition of organic-rich olive gray sediments began in the fjord about 12,000 14C yr ago, under well-oxygenated conditions as reflected by the presence of bioturbation and a diverse infaunal bivalve community. At about 10,500 14C yr, a massive, gray unit, 40-50 cm thick, was emplaced in a very short span of time. The unit is marked by a sharp lower contact, a gradational upper contact and an abundance of reworked Tertiary microfossils. It has been interpreted as resulting from massive flood events caused by the collapse of glacial dams in the Fraser Valley of mainland British Columbia. Progressively greater anoxia in bottom waters of Saanich Inlet began about 7000 14C yr ago. This is reflected in the preservation of varved sediments consisting of diatomaceous spring-summer laminae and terrigenous winter laminae. Correlation of the sediments was based on: marked lithologic changes, the presence of massive intervals (reflecting localized sediment gravity flow events), the Mazama Ash, occasional thin gray laminae (indicative of abnormal flood events in nearby watersheds), varve counts between marker horizons, and 71 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates.

(Table 1) Ice thickness at lake Nam Co, Tibet, during 2008-2009

Lake ice change is one of the sensitive indicators of regional and global climate change. Different sources of data are used in monitoring lake ice phenology nowadays. Visible and Near Infrared bands of imagery (VNIR) are well suited for the observation of freshwater ice change, for example data from AVHRR and MODIS. Active and passive microwave data are also used for the observation of lake ice, e.g., from satellite altimetry and radiometry, backscattering coefficient from QuickSCAT, brightness temperature (Tb) from SSM/I, SMMR, and AMSR-E. Most of the studies are about lake ice cover phenology, while few studies focus on lake ice thickness. For example, Hall et al. using 5 GHz (6 cm) radiometer data showed a good relationship between Tb and ice thickness. Kang et al. found the seasonal evolution of Tb at 10.65 GHz and 18.7 GHz from AMSR-E to be strongly influenced by ice thickness. Many studies on lake ice phenology have been carried out since the 1970s in cold regions, especially in Canada, the USA, Europe, the Arctic, and Antarctica. However, on the Tibetan Plateau, very little research has focused on lake ice-cover change; only a small number of published papers on Qinghai Lake ice observations. The main goal of this study is to investigate the change in lake ice phenology at Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau using MODIS and AMSR-E data (monitoring the date of freeze onset, the formation of stable ice cover, first appearance of water, and the complete disappearance of ice) during the period 2000-2009.

Geochemistry of terrigenous material in deep-sea sediments of the equatorial Pacific

Biological productivity in the modern equatorial Pacific Ocean, a region with high nutrients and low chlorophyll, is currently limited by the micronutrient Fe. In order to test whether Fe was limiting in the past and to identify potential pathways of Fe delivery that could drive Fe fertilization (i.e., dust delivery from eolian inputs vs. Fe supplied by the Equatorial Undercurrent), we chemically isolated the terrigenous material from sediment along a cross-equatorial transect in the central equatorial Pacific at 140°W and at Ocean Drilling Program Site 850 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We quantified the contribution from each potential Fe-bearing terrigenous source using a suite of chemical- and isotopic discrimination strategies as well as multivariate statistical techniques. We find that the distribution of the terrigenous sources (i.e., Asian loess, South American ash, Papua New Guinea, and ocean island basalt) varies through time, latitude, and climate. Regardless of which method is used to determine accumulation rate, there also is no relationship between flux of any particular Fe source and climate. Moreover, there is no connection between a particular Fe source or pathway (eolian vs. Undercurrent) to total productivity during the Last Glacial Maximum, Pleistocene glacial episodes, and the Miocene "Biogenic Bloom". This would suggest an alternative process, such as an interoceanic reorganization of nutrient inventories, may be responsible for past changes in total export in the open ocean, rather than simply Fe supply from dust and/or Equatorial Undercurrent processes. Additionally, perhaps a change in Fe source or flux is related to a change in a particular component of the total productivity (e.g., the production of organic matter, calcium carbonate, or biogenic opal).

(Table 1) Prey species identified from the scats of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) on Bouvet Island

Intraspecific differences in the diets of many species of pinnipeds are to be expected in view of the great differences in morphology, life history and foraging behaviour between the sexes of many species. We examined the diet of the Antarctic fur seal population at Bouvetøya, Southern Ocean, to assess intersexual differences. This was made possible by the analysis of prey remains extracted from scats and regurgitations collected in areas used primarily by one or the other sex. The results indicate that both males and females feed primarily on Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with several species of fish and squid being taken, likely opportunistically given their prevalence. Significant differences were identified in the frequency of occurrence of otoliths in scats and the percentage numerical abundance of the major fish prey species in the diet. Adult males ate a smaller quantity of fish overall, but ate significantly more of the larger fish species. The greater diving capabilities of males and the fact that they are not limited in the extent of their foraging area by having to return regularly to feed dependant offspring may play a role in the differences found between the diets of males and females. Additionally, females might be more selective, favouring myctophids because they are richer in energy than krill. The absence of major differences in the diet between the sexes at this location is likely due to the high overall abundance of prey at Bouvetøya.

Ocean bottom seismometer sgy-files of refraction seismic profiles from Professor Logachev cruise TTR16/3

Over the last decade pockmarks have proven to be important seabed features that provide information about fluid flow on continental margins. Their formation and dynamics are still poorly constrained due to the lack of proper three dimensional imaging of their internal structure. Numerous fluid escape features provide evidence for an active fluid-flow system on the Norwegian margin, specifically in the Nyegga region. In June-July 2006 a high-resolution seismic experiment using Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) was carried out to investigate the detailed 3D structure of a pockmark named G11 in the region. An array of 14 OBS was deployed across the pockmark with 1 m location accuracy. Shots fired from surface towed mini GI guns were also recorded on a near surface hydrophone streamer. Several reflectors of high amplitude and reverse polarity are observed on the profiles indicating the presence of gas. Gas hydrates were recovered with gravity cores from less than a meter below the seafloor during the cruise. Indications of gas at shallow depths in the hydrate stability field show that methane is able to escape through the water-saturated sediments in the chimney without being entirely converted into gas hydrate. An initial 2D raytraced forward model of some of the P wave data along a line running NE-SW across the G11 pockmark shows, a gradual increase in velocity between the seafloor and a gas charged zone lying at ~300 m depth below the seabed. The traveltime fit is improved if the pockmark is underlain by velocities higher than in the surrounding layer corresponding to a pipe which ascends from the gas zone, to where it terminates in the pockmark as seen in the reflection profiles. This could be due to the presence of hydrates or carbonates within the sediments.