Sensitivity and Bias within the Binary Signal Detection Theory, BSDT

Similar to classic Signal Detection Theory (SDT), recent optimal Binary Signal Detection Theory (BSDT) and based on it Neural Network Assembly Memory Model (NNAMM) can successfully reproduce Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves although BSDT/NNAMM parameters (intensity of cue and neuron threshold) and classic SDT parameters (perception distance and response bias) are essentially different. In present work BSDT/NNAMM optimal likelihood and posterior probabilities are analytically analyzed and used to generate ROCs and modified (posterior) mROCs, optimal overall likelihood and posterior. It is shown that for the description of basic discrimination experiments in psychophysics within the BSDT a ‘neural space’ can be introduced where sensory stimuli as neural codes are represented and decision processes are defined, the BSDT’s isobias curves can simultaneously be interpreted as universal psychometric functions satisfying the Neyman-Pearson objective, the just noticeable difference (jnd) can be defined and interpreted as an atom of experience, and near-neutral values of biases are observers’ natural choice. The uniformity or no-priming hypotheses, concerning the ‘in-mind’ distribution of false-alarm probabilities during ROC or overall probability estimations, is introduced. The BSDT’s and classic SDT’s sensitivity, bias, their ROC and decision spaces are compared.

A Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming Model for the Low Autocorrelation Binary Sequence Problem

In this paper the low autocorrelation binary sequence problem (LABSP) is modeled as a mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP) problem and proof of the model’s validity is given. Since the MIQP model is semidefinite, general optimization solvers can be used, and converge in a finite number of iterations. The experimental results show that IQP solvers, based on this MIQP formulation, are capable of optimally solving general/skew-symmetric LABSP instances of up to 30/51 elements in a moderate time. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.1.6, I.2.8.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Exploring care relations in later life: disentangling notions of care and choice

The experience of later life varies widely and is often framed in terms of the active lifestyles of the Third Age and the frailty and abjection of the Fourth Age. This thesis sought to understand how the concepts of care and choice are enacted, experienced and interrelated in the context of both informal and formal care in later life and how older people themselves, their families and significant others understand and experience these concepts. The discourse of personalisation that dominates care services has led to an emphasis on individual choice, control and independence so that those in need of care are faced with what has been described as the ‘logic of choice’, a focus on individual responsibility rather than care. Adopting a Feminist Foucauldian theoretical approach and drawing on Tronto’s (1993) ethic of care, this thesis explores the experiences of older people and their informal carers through dialogical narrative analysis. The stories begin with the recognition by individuals that there is a need for care and how this need is met through negotiations with families and significant others. As needs increase the physical and logistical limits of informal care by individuals are reached, often leading to a need to ‘choose’ formal care. Rather than impacting solely on the care recipient, formal care is shown as being an experience that is shared with informal carers. Indeed, the participants depict how informal care continues alongside formal care and how the boundaries between them become blurred. I argue that a binary division between actively making choices and being a passive recipient are not appropriate to understandings of care. By disentangling the notions of care and choice this thesis explores the extent to which these concepts are relevant to the experience of older people in specific care situations.

Neumann versus Leontief. Két modell – két gazdaságkép (Neumann vs Leontief. Two models, two approaches to the economy)

A szerző a tisztán elméleti célokra kifejlesztett Neumann-modellt és a gyakorlati alkalmazások céljára kifejlesztett Leontief-modellt veti össze. A Neumann-modell és a Leontief-modell éves termelési periódust feltételező, zárt, stacionárius változatának hasonló matematikai struktúrája azt a feltételezést sugallja, hogy az utóbbi a Neumann-modell sajátos eseteként értelmezhető. Az egyes modellek közgazdasági tartalmát és feltevéseit részletesen kibontva és egymással összevetve a szerző megmutatja, hogy a fenti következtetés félrevezető, két merőben különböző modellről van szó, nem lehet az egyikből a másikat levezetni. Az ikertermelés és technológiai választék lehetősége a Neumann-modell elengedhetetlen feltevése, az éves termelési periódus feltevése pedig kizárja folyam jellegű kibocsátások explicit figyelembevételét. Mindezek feltevések ugyanakkor idegenek a Leontief-modelltől. A két modell valójában egy általánosabb állomány–folyam jellegű zárt, stacionárius modell sajátos esete, méghozzá azok folyamváltozókra redukált alakja. _____ The paper compares the basic assumptions and methodology of the Von Neumann model, developed for purely abstract theoretical purposes, and those of the Leontief model, designed originally for practical applications. Study of the similar mathematical structures of the Von Neumann model and the closed, stationary Leontief model, with a unit length of production period, often leads to the false conclusion that the latter is just a simplified version of the former. It is argued that the economic assumptions of the two models are quite different, which makes such an assertion unfounded. Technical choice and joint production are indispensable features of the Von Neumann model, and the assumption of unitary length of production period excludes the possibility of taking service flows explicitly into account. All these features are completely alien to the Leontief model, however. It is shown that the two models are in fact special cases of a more general stock-flow stationary model, reduced to forms containing only flow variables.

Optimization models for selecting bus stops for accessibility improvements for people with disabilities

Bus stops are key links in the journeys of transit patrons with disabilities. Inaccessible bus stops prevent people with disabilities from using fixed-route bus services, thus limiting their mobility. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990 prescribes the minimum requirements for bus stop accessibility by riders with disabilities. Due to limited budgets, transit agencies can only select a limited number of bus stop locations for ADA improvements annually. These locations should preferably be selected such that they maximize the overall benefits to patrons with disabilities. In addition, transit agencies may also choose to implement the universal design paradigm, which involves higher design standards than current ADA requirements and can provide amenities that are useful for all riders, like shelters and lighting. Many factors can affect the decision to improve a bus stop, including rider-based aspects like the number of riders with disabilities, total ridership, customer complaints, accidents, deployment costs, as well as locational aspects like the location of employment centers, schools, shopping areas, and so on. These interlacing factors make it difficult to identify optimum improvement locations without the aid of an optimization model. This dissertation proposes two integer programming models to help identify a priority list of bus stops for accessibility improvements. The first is a binary integer programming model designed to identify bus stops that need improvements to meet the minimum ADA requirements. The second involves a multi-objective nonlinear mixed integer programming model that attempts to achieve an optimal compromise among the two accessibility design standards. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used extensively to both prepare the model input and examine the model output. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to combine all of the factors affecting the benefits to patrons with disabilities. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the reasonableness of the model outputs in response to changes in model constraints. Based on a case study using data from Broward County Transit (BCT) in Florida, the models were found to produce a list of bus stops that upon close examination were determined to be highly logical. Compared to traditional approaches using staff experience, requests from elected officials, customer complaints, etc., these optimization models offer a more objective and efficient platform on which to make bus stop improvement suggestions.

Formal verification and testing of software architectural models

Ensuring the correctness of software has been the major motivation in software research, constituting a Grand Challenge. Due to its impact in the final implementation, one critical aspect of software is its architectural design. By guaranteeing a correct architectural design, major and costly flaws can be caught early on in the development cycle. Software architecture design has received a lot of attention in the past years, with several methods, techniques and tools developed. However, there is still more to be done, such as providing adequate formal analysis of software architectures. On these regards, a framework to ensure system dependability from design to implementation has been developed at FIU (Florida International University). This framework is based on SAM (Software Architecture Model), an ADL (Architecture Description Language), that allows hierarchical compositions of components and connectors, defines an architectural modeling language for the behavior of components and connectors, and provides a specification language for the behavioral properties. The behavioral model of a SAM model is expressed in the form of Petri nets and the properties in first order linear temporal logic.^ This dissertation presents a formal verification and testing approach to guarantee the correctness of Software Architectures. The Software Architectures studied are expressed in SAM. For the formal verification approach, the technique applied was model checking and the model checker of choice was Spin. As part of the approach, a SAM model is formally translated to a model in the input language of Spin and verified for its correctness with respect to temporal properties. In terms of testing, a testing approach for SAM architectures was defined which includes the evaluation of test cases based on Petri net testing theory to be used in the testing process at the design level. Additionally, the information at the design level is used to derive test cases for the implementation level. Finally, a modeling and analysis tool (SAM tool) was implemented to help support the design and analysis of SAM models. The results show the applicability of the approach to testing and verification of SAM models with the aid of the SAM tool.^

The effects of student -centered and traditional models of teaching on reading skills

A pre-test, post-test, quasi-experimental design was used to examine the effects of student-centered and traditional models of reading instruction on outcomes of literal comprehension and critical thinking skills. The sample for this study consisted of 101 adult students enrolled in a high-level developmental reading course at a large, urban community college in the Southeastern United States. The experimental group consisted of 48 students, and the control group consisted of 53 students. Students in the experimental group were limited in the time spent reading a course text of basic skills, with instructors using supplemental materials such as poems, news articles, and novels. Discussions, the reading-writing connection, and student choice in material selection were also part of the student-centered curriculum. Students in the control group relied heavily on a course text and vocabulary text for reading material, with great focus placed on basic skills. Activities consisted primarily of multiple-choice questioning and quizzes. The instrument used to collect pre-test data was Descriptive Tests of Language Skills in Reading Comprehension; post-test data were taken from the Florida College Basic Skills Exit Test. A MANCOVA was used as the statistical method to determine if either model of instruction led to significantly higher gains in literal comprehension skills or critical thinking skills. A paired samples t-test was also used to compare pre-test and post-test means. The results of the MANCOVA indicated no significant difference between instructional models on scores of literal comprehension and critical thinking. Neither was there any significant difference in scores between subgroups of age (under 25 and 25 and older) and language background (native English speaker and second-language learner). The results of the t-test indicated, however, that students taught under both instructional models made significant gains in on both literal comprehension and critical thinking skills from pre-test to post-test.

Formal verification and testing of software architectural models

Ensuring the correctness of software has been the major motivation in software research, constituting a Grand Challenge. Due to its impact in the final implementation, one critical aspect of software is its architectural design. By guaranteeing a correct architectural design, major and costly flaws can be caught early on in the development cycle. Software architecture design has received a lot of attention in the past years, with several methods, techniques and tools developed. However, there is still more to be done, such as providing adequate formal analysis of software architectures. On these regards, a framework to ensure system dependability from design to implementation has been developed at FIU (Florida International University). This framework is based on SAM (Software Architecture Model), an ADL (Architecture Description Language), that allows hierarchical compositions of components and connectors, defines an architectural modeling language for the behavior of components and connectors, and provides a specification language for the behavioral properties. The behavioral model of a SAM model is expressed in the form of Petri nets and the properties in first order linear temporal logic. This dissertation presents a formal verification and testing approach to guarantee the correctness of Software Architectures. The Software Architectures studied are expressed in SAM. For the formal verification approach, the technique applied was model checking and the model checker of choice was Spin. As part of the approach, a SAM model is formally translated to a model in the input language of Spin and verified for its correctness with respect to temporal properties. In terms of testing, a testing approach for SAM architectures was defined which includes the evaluation of test cases based on Petri net testing theory to be used in the testing process at the design level. Additionally, the information at the design level is used to derive test cases for the implementation level. Finally, a modeling and analysis tool (SAM tool) was implemented to help support the design and analysis of SAM models. The results show the applicability of the approach to testing and verification of SAM models with the aid of the SAM tool.

Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we extend mixtures of g-priors to GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1+g) and illustrate how this prior distribution encompasses several special cases of mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the Hyper-g, truncated Gamma, Beta-prime, and the Robust prior. Under an integrated Laplace approximation to the likelihood, the posterior distribution of 1/(1+g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show that specific choices of the hyper-parameters satisfy the various desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, information consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance. We also illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to others in the literature via simulation and real examples.

The crowded magnetosphere of the post-common-envelope binary QS Virginis

We present high-speed photometry and high-resolution spectroscopy of the eclipsing post-common-envelope binary QS Virginis (QS Vir). Our Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) spectra span multiple orbits over more than a year and reveal the presence of several large prominences passing in front of both the M star and its white dwarf companion, allowing us to triangulate their positions. Despite showing small variations on a time-scale of days, they persist for more than a year and may last decades. One large prominence extends almost three stellar radii from the M star. Roche tomography reveals that the M star is heavily spotted and that these spots are long-lived and in relatively fixed locations, preferentially found on the hemisphere facing the white dwarf. We also determine precise binary and physical parameters for the system. We find that the 14 220 ± 350 K white dwarf is relatively massive, 0.782 ± 0.013 M⊙, and has a radius of 0.010 68 ± 0.000 07 R⊙, consistent with evolutionary models. The tidally distorted M star has a mass of 0.382 ± 0.006 M⊙ and a radius of 0.381 ± 0.003 R⊙, also consistent with evolutionary models. We find that the magnesium absorption line from the white dwarf is broader than expected. This could be due to rotation (implying a spin period of only ˜700 s), or due to a weak (˜100 kG) magnetic field, we favour the latter interpretation. Since the M star's radius is still within its Roche lobe and there is no evidence that it is overinflated, we conclude that QS Vir is most likely a pre-cataclysmic binary just about to become semidetached.

Partial Cooperation in Location Choice: Salop’s Model with Three Firms

We consider how three firms compete in a Salop location model and how cooperation in location choice by two of these firms affects the outcomes. We con- sider the classical case of linear transportation costs as a two-stage game in which the firms select first a location on a unit circle along which consumers are dispersed evenly, followed by the competitive selection of a price. Standard analysis restricts itself to purely competitive selection of location; instead, we focus on the situation in which two firms collectively decide about location, but price their products competitively after the location choice has been effectuated. We show that such partial coordination of location is beneficial to all firms, since it reduces the number of equilibria significantly and, thereby, the resulting coordination problem. Subsequently, we show that the case of quadratic transportation costs changes the main conclusions only marginally.

Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

Revisiting a destination: A tourist’s choice model : A case study of Sweden

This paper documents the design and results of a study on tourists’ decision-making about destinations in Sweden. For this purpose, secondary data, available from surveys were used to identify which type of individual has the highest probability to revisit a destination and what are influencing factors to do so. A binary logit model is applied. The results show that very important influencing factors are the length of stay as well as the origin of the individual. These results could be useful for a marketing organization as well as for policy, to develop strategies to attract the most profitable tourism segment. Therefore, it can also be a great support for sustainable tourism development, where the main focus does not has priority on increasing number of tourists.

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations.

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions between alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This work investigates the influence of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1,503 participants is obtained and a Mixed Logit Model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker, and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model points out that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main contribution of this work is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.