Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

Xarxes virtuals de solidaritat: el cas del grup d'autoajuda Bipolarweb

Per a poder comprendre la dimensió de les possibles transformacions que Internet pot comportar, cal investigar els usos concrets de què es o ha estat objecte. En definitiva, cal realitzar investigacions empíriques que aportin informació sobre qui usa Internet, en quines circumstàncies i amb quins objectius. En aquest context, s’ha iniciat l’anàlisi en profunditat d’un cas específic de comunitat virtual de suport social creada per una persona afectada pel trastorn bipolar. L’objectiu d’una comunitat d’autoajuda virtual és proporcionar informació i recolzament emocional a través d’Internet. Mitjançant una metodologia qualitativa s’ha realitzat l’observació del fòrum virtual que penja de la pàgina web “Bipoloarweb.com”. En les investigacions del fenomen dels grups d’autoajuda a Internet, sovint s’ha destacat que a diferència dels grups ‘presencials’, aquests només poden aportar recolzament emocional i informatiu als seus membres. El tipus de recolzament instrumental o altre tipus d’assistència física, en canvi, no és possible en els casos virtuals. Els primers resultats de la recerca invaliden aquesta afirmació general ja que s’ha pogut observar episodis diferents d’ajut instrumental. En relació a la gestió d’informació i producció de coneixement, ja es pot avançar algunes qüestions interessants. En primer lloc, la quantitat i el detall de la informació que en el fòrum circula sobre el trastorn Bipolar. La majoria d’aquests coneixements, però, sorgeixen directament de compartir l’experiència diària entre els membres del grup. Tot això permet avançar la següent hipòtesi de treball pel futur: a més a més de suport emocional i instrumental, aquest grup ‘empodera’ el seus membres? Si la resposta fos positiva, el nostre cas tindria semblances amb altres fenòmens com son les associacions de malalts.

An atlas of human gene expression from massively parallel signature sequencing (MPSS).

We have used massively parallel signature sequencing (MPSS) to sample the transcriptomes of 32 normal human tissues to an unprecedented depth, thus documenting the patterns of expression of almost 20,000 genes with high sensitivity and specificity. The data confirm the widely held belief that differences in gene expression between cell and tissue types are largely determined by transcripts derived from a limited number of tissue-specific genes, rather than by combinations of more promiscuously expressed genes. Expression of a little more than half of all known human genes seems to account for both the common requirements and the specific functions of the tissues sampled. A classification of tissues based on patterns of gene expression largely reproduces classifications based on anatomical and biochemical properties. The unbiased sampling of the human transcriptome achieved by MPSS supports the idea that most human genes have been mapped, if not functionally characterized. This data set should prove useful for the identification of tissue-specific genes, for the study of global changes induced by pathological conditions, and for the definition of a minimal set of genes necessary for basic cell maintenance. The data are available on the Web at http://mpss.licr.org and http://sgb.lynxgen.com.

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

Strategic investment and international outsourcing in unionised oligopoly

We critically consider the conventional belief that the attractiveness of international outsourcing lies in cheaper labour costs overseas and that it offers a means to ‘escape’ the power of unions. We develop an oligopoly model in which firms facing unionised domestic labour market choose between producing an intermediate in-house or outsourcing it to a non-unionised foreign supplier that makes a relationship specific investment in developing the intermediate. We show that outsourcing typically results in higher wages and does not always reduce marginal costs. Trade liberalisation favours outsourcing particularly for the relatively less efficient firms.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints under Devolution

A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. Its denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the public-sector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Welsh Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Wales in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Welsh HEIs. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the publicsector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Northern Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Northern Ireland. The motivation is to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Northern Irish HEIs. A comparative analysis will follow in due course. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the public sector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of London-based Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on the economy of England: Accounting for Alternative Uses of Public Expenditure

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010a) for the case of London-based HEIs’ impact on the English economy in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of London HEIs. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of alternative uses of public expenditure, and show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate this. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

Inseguridad ciudadana subjetiva/miedo al delito: límites para la viabilidad de la transferencia de políticas de seguridad

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centre of Criminology de la University of Toronto, Canadà, entre 2006 y 2008. El miedo al delito como ámbito temático lleva 40 años de andadura y cuenta con cientos de investigaciones en su acervo. Dicha subdisciplina ha utilizado la expresión “miedo al delito” para referirse a un conjunto de conceptos académicos que ella misma va desarrollando, así como a lo que considera una experiencia subjetiva que pretende estudiar. Tanto el concepto como la experiencia han sido vagamente catalogados de respuesta emocional frente al delito o imágenes asociadas a éste. A pesar de los estudios más empíricos y de las teorías más positivistas, que tratan el miedo al delito como un fenómeno que puede ser medido y a cuyo conocimiento nos podemos ir aproximando cada vez con mayor precisión, con el trabajo de este proyecto se puede concluir que el miedo al delito constituye un elemento semántico-conceptual de las categorías académica y popular de delito. Los enfoques culturalistas o hermenéuticos han apuntado esta cuestión pero, simultáneamente, han seguido admitiendo la complementariedad entre enfoques. En principio, admitir el valor constitutivo del miedo al delito en la noción de delito parece que no excluye la necesidad de conocer si los temores a ser víctima de un delito han aumentado en nuestra ciudad, ni el saber por qué ello ha sido así. Apropiarse de tales saberes tal vez sea la única forma de aislar factores discretos que puedan ser manipulados en políticas públicas para erradicar el temor cuyo incremento se supone verificado con las mediciones. Sin embargo, puesto que lo registrado han sido actitudes cognitivas y no emociones, los eventuales programas de intervención deberían ser ideados en el mejor de los casos, con la misma complejidad que la propia formación de creencias lo que lo haría inoperativo. Acción bianual.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Thérapie cognitive et comportementale pour les hallucinations auditives résistantes au traitement neuroleptique

The aim of this study is to test the feasibility and the efficacy of a cognitive and behavior therapy manual for auditory hallucinations with persons suffering from schizophrenia in a French-speaking environment and under natural clinical conditions. Eight patients met ICD-10 criteria for paranoid schizophrenia, 2 for hebephrenic schizophrenia and 1 for schizoaffective disorder. All were hearing voices daily. Patients followed the intervention for 3 to 6 months according to their individual rhythms. Participants filled up questionnaires at pre-test, post-test and three months follow-up. The instruments were the Belief About Voice Questionnaire--Revised and two seven points scales about frequency of hallucinations and attribution of the source of the voices. Results show a decrease of voices' frequency and improvement in attributing the voices rather to an internal than to an external source. Malevolent or benevolent beliefs about voices are significantly decreased at follow-up as well as efforts at coping with hallucinations. Results should be interpreted with caution because of the small number of subjects. The sample may not be representative of patients with persistent symptoms since there is an over representation of patients with benevolent voices and an under representation of patients with substance misuse

Molecular mechanisms of drug resistance in clinical Candida species isolated from tunisian hospitals.

Antifungal resistance of Candida species is a clinical problem in the management of diseases caused by these pathogens. In this study we identified from a collection of 423 clinical samples taken from Tunisian hospitals two clinical Candida species (Candida albicans JEY355 and Candida tropicalis JEY162) with decreased susceptibility to azoles and polyenes. For JEY355, the fluconazole (FLC) MIC was 8 μg/ml. Azole resistance in C. albicans JEY355 was mainly caused by overexpression of a multidrug efflux pump of the major facilitator superfamily, Mdr1. The regulator of Mdr1, MRR1, contained a yet-unknown gain-of-function mutation (V877F) causing MDR1 overexpression. The C. tropicalis JEY162 isolate demonstrated cross-resistance between FLC (MIC > 128 μg/ml), voriconazole (MIC > 16 μg/ml), and amphotericin B (MIC > 32 μg/ml). Sterol analysis using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry revealed that ergosterol was undetectable in JEY162 and that it accumulated 14α-methyl fecosterol, thus indicating a perturbation in the function of at least two main ergosterol biosynthesis proteins (Erg11 and Erg3). Sequence analyses of C. tropicalis ERG11 (CtERG11) and CtERG3 from JEY162 revealed a deletion of 132 nucleotides and a single amino acid substitution (S258F), respectively. These two alleles were demonstrated to be nonfunctional and thus are consistent with previous studies showing that ERG11 mutants can only survive in combination with other ERG3 mutations. CtERG3 and CtERG11 wild-type alleles were replaced by the defective genes in a wild-type C. tropicalis strain, resulting in a drug resistance phenotype identical to that of JEY162. This genetic evidence demonstrated that CtERG3 and CtERG11 mutations participated in drug resistance. During reconstitution of the drug resistance in C. tropicalis, a strain was obtained harboring only defective Cterg11 allele and containing as a major sterol the toxic metabolite 14α-methyl-ergosta-8,24(28)-dien-3α,6β-diol, suggesting that ERG3 was still functional. This strain therefore challenged the current belief that ERG11 mutations cannot be viable unless accompanied by compensatory mutations. In conclusion, this study, in addition to identifying a novel MRR1 mutation in C. albicans, constitutes the first report on a clinical C. tropicalis with defective activity of sterol 14α-demethylase and sterol Δ(5,6)-desaturase leading to azole-polyene cross-resistance.

Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.