Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

Seeing the Wood through the Trees: The Current State of Higher Systematics in the Strepsirhini.

Strepsirhines comprise 10 living or recently extinct families, ≥50% of extant primate families. Their phylogenetic relationships have been intensively studied, but common topologies have only recently emerged; e.g. all recent reconstructions link the Lepilemuridae and Cheirogaleidae. The position of the indriids, however, remains uncertain, and molecular studies have placed them as the sister to every clade except Daubentonia, the preferred sister group of morphologists. The node subtending Afro-Asian lorisids has been similarly elusive. We probed these phylogenetic inconsistencies using a test data set including 20 strepsirhine taxa and 2 outgroups represented by 3,543 mtDNA base pairs, and 43 selected morphological characters, subjecting the data to maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses, and reconstructing topology and node ages jointly from the molecular data using relaxed molecular clock analyses. Our permutations yielded compatible but not identical evolutionary histories, and currently popular techniques seem unable to deal adequately with morphological data. We investigated the influence of morphological characters on tree topologies, and examined the effect of taxon sampling in two experiments: (1) we removed the molecular data only for 5 endangered Malagasy taxa to simulate 'extinction leaving a fossil record'; (2) we removed both the sequence and morphological data for these taxa. Topologies were affected more by the inclusion of morphological data only, indicating that palaeontological studies that involve inserting a partial morphological data set into a combined data matrix of extant species should be interpreted with caution. The gap of approximately 10 million years between the daubentoniid divergence and those of the other Malagasy families deserves more study. The apparently contemporaneous divergence of African and non-daubentoniid Malagasy families 40-30 million years ago may be related to regional plume-induced uplift followed by a global period of cooling and drying. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among dormice (Rodentia, Gliridae) based on three nuclear genes

We examined phylogenetic relationships among six species representing three subfamilies, Glirinae, Graphiurinae and Leithiinae with sequences from three nuclear protein-coding genes (apolipoprotein B, APOB; interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein, IRBP; recombination-activating gene 1, RAG1). Phylogenetic trees reconstructed from maximum-parsimony (MP), maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian-inference (BI) analyses showed the monophyly of Glirinae (Glis and Glirulus) and Leithiinae (Dryomys, Eliomys and Muscardinus) with strong support, although the branch length maintaining this relationship was very short, implying rapid diversification among the three subfamilies. Divergence time estimates were calculated from ML (local clock model) and Bayesian-dating method using a calibration point of 25 Myr (million years) ago for the divergence between Glis and Glirulus, and 55 Myr ago for the split between lineages of Gliridae and Sciuridae on the basis of fossil records. The results showed that each lineage of Graphiuros, Glis, Glirulus and Muscardinus dates from the Late Oligocene to the Early Miocene period, which is mostly in agreement with fossil records. Taking into account that warm climate harbouring a glirid-favoured forest dominated from Europe to Asia during this period, it is considered that this warm environment triggered the prosperity of the glirid species through the rapid diversification. Glirulus japonicas is suggested to be a relict of this ancient diversification during the warm period.

Heritability and quantitative genetic divergence of serotiny, a fire-persistence plant trait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although it is well known that fire acts as a selective pressure shaping plant phenotypes, there are no quantitative estimates of the heritability of any trait related to plant persistence under recurrent fires, such as serotiny. In this study, the heritability of serotiny in Pinus halepensis is calculated, and an evaluation is made as to whether fire has left a selection signature on the level of serotiny among populations by comparing the genetic divergence of serotiny with the expected divergence of neutral molecular markers (QST-FST comparison). METHODS: A common garden of P. halepensis was used, located in inland Spain and composed of 145 open-pollinated families from 29 provenances covering the entire natural range of P. halepensis in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Narrow-sense heritability (h(2)) and quantitative genetic differentiation among populations for serotiny (QST) were estimated by means of an 'animal model' fitted by Bayesian inference. In order to determine whether genetic differentiation for serotiny is the result of differential natural selection, QST estimates for serotiny were compared with FST estimates obtained from allozyme data. Finally, a test was made of whether levels of serotiny in the different provenances were related to different fire regimes, using summer rainfall as a proxy for fire regime in each provenance. KEY RESULTS: Serotiny showed a significant narrow-sense heritability (h(2)) of 0·20 (credible interval 0·09-0·40). Quantitative genetic differentiation among provenances for serotiny (QST = 0·44) was significantly higher than expected under a neutral process (FST = 0·12), suggesting adaptive differentiation. A significant negative relationship was found between the serotiny level of trees in the common garden and summer rainfall of their provenance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Serotiny is a heritable trait in P. halepensis, and selection acts on it, giving rise to contrasting serotiny levels among populations depending on the fire regime, and supporting the role of fire in generating genetic divergence for adaptive traits.

Suivi neurodéveloppemental à 5ans des extrêmes prématurés et détection des difficultés sur le plan des fonctions exécutives [Detection of executive function disorders with a standard neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature children].

INTRODUCTION: A significant proportion of prematurely born children encounter behavioral difficulties, such as attention deficit or hyperactivity, which could be due to executive function disorders. AIMS: To examine whether the standard neurodevelopmental assessment offered to premature children in Switzerland recognizes executive function disorders. METHODS: The study population consisted of 49 children born before 29 weeks of gestation who were examined between 5 and 6 years of age with a standard assessment, with additional items to assess executive functioning. Children with severe neurodevelopmental impairment were excluded (mental retardation, cerebral palsy, autism). Standard assessment consisted in the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children (K-ABC), which comprises three subscales: sequential processes (analysis of sequential information), simultaneous processes (global analysis of visual information), and composite mental processes (CMP) (result of the other two scales), as well as a behavioral evaluation using the standardized Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Executive functioning was assessed with tasks evaluating visual attention, divided attention, and digit memory as well as with a specialized questionnaire, the Behavior Rating Index of Executive Functions (BRIEF), which evaluates several aspects of executive function (regulation, attention, flexibility, working memory, etc). RESULTS: Children were divided according to their results on the three K-ABC scales (< or>85), and the different neuropsychological tasks assessing executive function were compared between the groups. The CMP did not differentiate children with executive difficulties, whereas a score<85 on the sequential processes was significantly associated with worse visual and divided attention. There was a strong correlation between the SDQ and the BRIEF questionnaires. For both questionnaires, children receiving psychotherapy had significantly higher results. Children who presented behavioral problems assessed with the SDQ presented significantly higher scores on the BRIEF. CONCLUSION: A detailed analysis of the standard neurodevelopmental assessment allows the identification of executive function disorders in premature children. Children who performed below 85 on the sequential processes of the K-ABC had significantly more attentional difficulties on the neuropsychological tasks and therefore have to be recognized and carefully followed. Emotional regulation had a strong correlation with behavioral difficulties, which were suitably assessed with the SDQ, recognized by the families, and treated.

Minimum error contrast enhancement

Contrast enhancement is an image processing technique where the objective is to preprocess the image so that relevant information can be either seen or further processed more reliably. These techniques are typically applied when the image itself or the device used for image reproduction provides poor visibility and distinguishability of different regions of interest inthe image. In most studies, the emphasis is on the visualization of image data,but this human observer biased goal often results to images which are not optimal for automated processing. The main contribution of this study is to express the contrast enhancement as a mapping from N-channel image data to 1-channel gray-level image, and to devise a projection method which results to an image with minimal error to the correct contrast image. The projection, the minimum-error contrast image, possess the optimal contrast between the regions of interest in the image. The method is based on estimation of the probability density distributions of the region values, and it employs Bayesian inference to establish the minimum error projection.

The transcriptional network activated by Cln3 cyclin at the G1-to-S transition of the yeast cell cycle

Background: The G1-to-S transition of the cell cycle in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae involves an extensive transcriptional program driven by transcription factors SBF (Swi4-Swi6) and MBF (Mbp1-Swi6). Activation of these factors ultimately depends on the G1 cyclin Cln3. Results: To determine the transcriptional targets of Cln3 and their dependence on SBF or MBF, we first have used DNA microarrays to interrogate gene expression upon Cln3 overexpression in synchronized cultures of strains lacking components of SBF and/or MBF. Secondly, we have integrated this expression dataset together with other heterogeneous data sources into a single probabilistic model based on Bayesian statistics. Our analysis has produced more than 200 transcription factor-target assignments, validated by ChIP assays and by functional enrichment. Our predictions show higher internal coherence and predictive power than previous classifications. Our results support a model whereby SBF and MBF may be differentially activated by Cln3. Conclusions: Integration of heterogeneous genome-wide datasets is key to building accurate transcriptional networks. By such integration, we provide here a reliable transcriptional network at the G1-to-S transition in the budding yeast cell cycle. Our results suggest that to improve the reliability of predictions we need to feed our models with more informative experimental data.

Sexual foraging segregation in South American sea lions increases during the pre-breeding period in the La Plata River plume

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in skin and bone of South American sea lions from Brazil and Uruguay were analysed to test the hypothesis that trophic overlap between the sexes is lower during the pre-breeding season than throughout the rest of the year. The isotopic values of skin and bone were used to infer the trophic relationships between the sexes during the pre-breeding period and year round, respectively. Prey species were also analysed to establish a baseline necessary for interpreting the stable isotope ratios of skin and bone. Standard ellipse areas, estimated using Bayesian inference in the SIBER routine of the SIAR package in R, suggested that males and females used a wide diversity of foraging strategies throughout the year and that no differences existed between the sexes. However, the diversity of foraging strategies was largely reduced during the pre-breeding period, with all the individuals of each sex adopting similar strategies, but with the two sexes differing considerably in stable isotope values and the ellipse areas of males and females not overlapping at all. Nevertheless, the results revealed a general increase in the consumption of pelagic prey by both sexes during the pre-breeding period. The progressive crowding of individuals in the areas surrounding the breeding rookeries during the pre-breeding period could lead to an increase in the local population density, which could explain the above reported changes.

Design and evaluation of web interface signs to improve web usability : a semiotic framework

Technological innovations, the development of the internet, and globalization have increased the number and complexity of web applications. As a result, keeping web user interfaces understandable and usable (in terms of ease-of-use, effectiveness, and satisfaction) is a challenge. As part of this, designing userintuitive interface signs (i.e., the small elements of web user interface, e.g., navigational link, command buttons, icons, small images, thumbnails, etc.) is an issue for designers. Interface signs are key elements of web user interfaces because ‘interface signs’ act as a communication artefact to convey web content and system functionality, and because users interact with systems by means of interface signs. In the light of the above, applying semiotic (i.e., the study of signs) concepts on web interface signs will contribute to discover new and important perspectives on web user interface design and evaluation. The thesis mainly focuses on web interface signs and uses the theory of semiotic as a background theory. The underlying aim of this thesis is to provide valuable insights to design and evaluate web user interfaces from a semiotic perspective in order to improve overall web usability. The fundamental research question is formulated as What do practitioners and researchers need to be aware of from a semiotic perspective when designing or evaluating web user interfaces to improve web usability? From a methodological perspective, the thesis follows a design science research (DSR) approach. A systematic literature review and six empirical studies are carried out in this thesis. The empirical studies are carried out with a total of 74 participants in Finland. The steps of a design science research process are followed while the studies were designed and conducted; that includes (a) problem identification and motivation, (b) definition of objectives of a solution, (c) design and development, (d) demonstration, (e) evaluation, and (f) communication. The data is collected using observations in a usability testing lab, by analytical (expert) inspection, with questionnaires, and in structured and semi-structured interviews. User behaviour analysis, qualitative analysis and statistics are used to analyze the study data. The results are summarized as follows and have lead to the following contributions. Firstly, the results present the current status of semiotic research in UI design and evaluation and highlight the importance of considering semiotic concepts in UI design and evaluation. Secondly, the thesis explores interface sign ontologies (i.e., sets of concepts and skills that a user should know to interpret the meaning of interface signs) by providing a set of ontologies used to interpret the meaning of interface signs, and by providing a set of features related to ontology mapping in interpreting the meaning of interface signs. Thirdly, the thesis explores the value of integrating semiotic concepts in usability testing. Fourthly, the thesis proposes a semiotic framework (Semiotic Interface sign Design and Evaluation – SIDE) for interface sign design and evaluation in order to make them intuitive for end users and to improve web usability. The SIDE framework includes a set of determinants and attributes of user-intuitive interface signs, and a set of semiotic heuristics to design and evaluate interface signs. Finally, the thesis assesses (a) the quality of the SIDE framework in terms of performance metrics (e.g., thoroughness, validity, effectiveness, reliability, etc.) and (b) the contributions of the SIDE framework from the evaluators’ perspective.

Quantitative Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Liver and Heart In Iron Overload

Systemic iron overload (IO) is considered a principal determinant in the clinical outcome of different forms of IO and in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). However, indirect markers for iron do not provide exact quantification of iron burden, and the evidence of iron-induced adverse effects in hematological diseases has not been established. Hepatic iron concentration (HIC) has been found to represent systemic IO, which can be quantified safely with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), based on enhanced transverse relaxation. The iron measurement methods by MRI are evolving. The aims of this study were to implement and optimise the methodology of non-invasive iron measurement with MRI to assess the degree and the role of IO in the patients. An MRI-based HIC method (M-HIC) and a transverse relaxation rate (R2*) from M-HIC images were validated. Thereafter, a transverse relaxation rate (R2) from spin-echo imaging was calibrated for IO assessment. Two analysis methods, visual grading and rSI, for a rapid IO grading from in-phase and out-of-phase images were introduced. Additionally, clinical iron indicators were evaluated. The degree of hepatic and cardiac iron in our study patients and IO as a prognostic factor in patients undergoing alloSCT were explored. In vivo and in vitro validations indicated that M-HIC and R2* are both accurate in the quantification of liver iron. R2 was a reliable method for HIC quantification and covered a wider HIC range than M-HIC and R2*. The grading of IO was able to be performed rapidly with the visual grading and rSI methods. Transfusion load was more accurate than plasma ferritin in predicting transfusional IO. In patients with hematological disorders, the prevalence of hepatic IO was frequent, opposite to cardiac IO. Patients with myelodysplastic syndrome were found to be the most susceptible to IO. Pre-transplant IO predicted severe infections during the early post-transplant period, in contrast to the reduced risk of graft-versus-host disease. Iron-induced, poor transplantation results are most likely to be mediated by severe infections.

Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

Making Queer Anti-capitalist Resistance Intelligible: Reading Queer Childhood in the Ruins of Neoliberalism

In challenging normative social relations, queer cultural studies has shied away from deploying historical materialist theoretical tools. My research addresses this gap by drawing these two literatures into conversation. I do so by investigating how global economic relations provide an allegorical and material context for the regulation, representation and re-imagining of working-class queer childhood through anti- capitalist queer readings of three films: Kes, Billy Elliot, and Boys Village. I deploy this reading practice to investigate how these films represent heteronormative capitalism’s systematic extermination of the life possibilities of working class children, how children resist forces of normalisation by creating queer times and spaces, and how nostalgia engenders a spatio-temporal understanding of queerness through a radical utopianism. My analysis foregrounds visual cultural productions as sites for understanding how contemporary social worlds exclude queer working class children, who struggle to insert themselves into and thereby shift the grounds of normative social relations.

Perspectives of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder on a Community-Based Parent Education Program

In 2012 a community-based agency that oversees Intensive Behaviour Intervention services for young children diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) began delivering newly developed curricula to parents of eligible children. The curricula’s intent was to inform parents about ASD and Applied Behaviour Analysis, to increase their awareness of available community resources, and assist them to be active and engaged in their child’s learning. This mixed-method study used a program-specific survey and focus groups to explore the perspectives parents had on their involvement in these education sessions. Through constant comparison analysis 4 major and 3 minor themes emerged. In general, parents acknowledged that this parent education program included relevant content and a favourable delivery format. The study summarized a number of well-articulated, practical suggestions parents provided. Implications for practice would be applicable to educators interested in providing quality group-based education to parents of young children with ASD.