Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Data grid for the management, reconstruction, analysis and visualisation of archaeological data

In 2007 Associate Professor Jay Hall retires from the University of Queensland after more than 30 years of service to the Australian archaeological community. Celebrated as a gifted teacher and a pioneer of Queensland archaeology, Jay leaves a rich legacy of scholarship and achievement across a wide range of archaeological endeavours. An Archæological Life brings together past and present students, colleagues and friends to celebrate Jay’s contributions, influences and interests.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Management, conservation and farming of saltwater crocodiles: An Australian case study of sustainable commercial use

Opinions differ about what types of policies are likely to be most effective in conserving wildlife species. For example, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) is based on the premise that curbing the commercial use of endangered species favours their conservation, whereas the Convention on Biological Diversity envisages the possibility that such use may contribute to the conservation of species. In Australia, as illustrated in the case of the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus), the governments of the Northern Territory and Western Australia have favoured the latter policy in recent years, whereas Queensland has favoured the former approach. The saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory provides an instructive case study of the consequences of adopting a commercial use strategy to promote wildlife conservation. The methodology used in this study, which involves a survey of crocodile farm managers and managers of cattle properties in the Northern Territory as well as secondary data, is outlined, after providing background on the conservation status of saltwater crocodiles in Australia and the saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory. In the results section, after outlining the nature and structure of the Northern Territory crocodile farming industry, evidence is presented on whether or not the crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory encourages pastoralists to conserve crocodiles on their properties. This study concludes with a discussion of the overall conservation effectiveness of the crocodile management scheme of the Northern Territory and considers its possible implications for saltwater crocodile management in areas of Asia where the species occurs.

The effects of normalisation on the ability of business end-users to detect data anomalies: An experimental evaluation

With the proliferation of relational database programs for PC's and other platforms, many business end-users are creating, maintaining, and querying their own databases. More importantly, business end-users use the output of these queries as the basis for operational, tactical, and strategic decisions. Inaccurate data reduce the expected quality of these decisions. Implementing various input validation controls, including higher levels of normalisation, can reduce the number of data anomalies entering the databases. Even in well-maintained databases, however, data anomalies will still accumulate. To improve the quality of data, databases can be queried periodically to locate and correct anomalies. This paper reports the results of two experiments that investigated the effects of different data structures on business end-users' abilities to detect data anomalies in a relational database. The results demonstrate that both unnormalised and higher levels of normalisation lower the effectiveness and efficiency of queries relative to the first normal form. First normal form databases appear to provide the most effective and efficient data structure for business end-users formulating queries to detect data anomalies.

Matching prescription claims with medication data for nursing home residents: Implications for prescriber feedback, drug utilisation studies and selection of prescription claims database

Medication data retrieved from Australian Repatriation Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (RPBS) claims for 44 veterans residing in nursing homes and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) claims for 898 nursing home residents were compared with medication data from nursing home records to determine the optimal time interval for retrieving claims data and its validity. Optimal matching was achieved using 12 weeks of RPBS claims data, with 60% of medications in the RPBS claims located in nursing home administration records, and 78% of medications administered to nursing home residents identified in RPBS claims. In comparison, 48% of medications administered to nursing home residents could be found in 12 weeks of PBS data, and 56% of medications present in PBS claims could be matched with nursing home administration records. RPBS claims data was superior to PBS, due to the larger number of scheduled items available to veterans and the veteran's file number, which acts as a unique identifier. These findings should be taken into account when using prescription claims data for medication histories, prescriber feedback, drug utilisation, intervention or epidemiological studies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental infections of pigs with Japanese encephalitis virus and closely related Australian flaviviruses

The flavivirus Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus has recently emerged in the Australasian region. To investigate the involvement of infections with related enzootic flaviviruses, namely Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) virus and Kunjin (KUN) virus, on immunity of pigs to JE virus and to provide a basis for interpretation of serologic data, experimental infections were conducted with combinations of these viruses. Antibody responses to primary and secondary infections were evaluated using panels of monoclonal antibody-based blocking enzyme-link-ed immuno-sorbent assays and microtiter scrum neutralization tests (mSNTs). Identification of the primary infecting virus was possible only using the mSNTs. Following challenge, unequivocal diagnosis was impossible due to variation in immune responses between animals and broadened and/or anamnestic responses. Viremia for JE virus was readily detected in pigs following primary infection, but was not detected following prior exposure to MVE or KUN viruses. Boosted levels of existing cross-neutralizing antibodies to JE virus suggested a role for this response in suppressing JE viremia.

Phylogenetic relationships of Trypanosoma chelodina and Trypanosoma binneyi from Australian tortoises and platypuses inferred from small subunit rRNA analyses

Trypanosome infections are often difficult to detect by conventional microscopy and their pleomorphy often confounds differential diagnosis. Molecular techniques are now being used to diagnose infections and to determine phylogenetic relationships between species. Complete small subunit rRNA gene sequences were determined for isolates of Trypanosoma chelodina from the Brisbane River tortoise (Emydura signata), the saw-shelled tortoise (Elseya latisternum), and the eastern snake-necked tortoise (Chelodina longicollis) from southeast Queensland, Australia. Partial sequence data were also obtained for T. binneyi from a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) from Tasmania. Phylogenetic relationships between T. chelodina, T. binneyi and other species were examined by maximum parsimony and likelihood methods. The Australian tortoise and platypus trypanosomes did not exhibit any close phylogenetic relationships with those of mammals, reptiles or amphibians, but were closely related to each other, and to fish trypanosomes. This contra-indicates their co-evolution with their vertebrate hosts but does not exclude co-evolution with different groups of invertebrate vectors, notably insects and leeches.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

The play of identities in Cypriot-Australian family storytelling

This article adopts a microanalytic approach to examine storytelling as a co-construction by family members in a Cypriot-Australian family. Previous studies on family storytelling have focused on the various roles of family members in storytelling with a means of studying family socialization (Miller et al., 1990; Ochs & Taylor, 1992; Blum-Kulka, 1997). These studies used critical discourse analysis, socioculturel theories, performance and pragmatic approaches to storytelling. This article offers a distinctive approach to family storytelling by examining the discourse and social identities that family members display during the storytelling. The data originate in a study that involves interviews with three generations of Greek-Australian and Cypriot-Australian women regarding their relationships with each other. In this paper we investigate the contributions of the father and the daughters in the course of the mother's turn at storytelling. The first part of the analysis focuses on the husband's discourse identities as a contributor, initiator and elicitor of his wife's storytelling. During the storytelling we also observe the production and exchange of different social identities between the husband and the mother, such as the 'unwilling suitor', the 'embarrassed schoolgirl' or the 'forceful but teasing husband'. The second part describes how the daughters take part in their mother's storytelling, producing a variety of identities such as the 'impatient mother', the 'complaining', 'happy', or 'good' mothers and daughters. These investigations succinctly illustrate how narratives become a resource for members' 'display' and 'play' of identities. Copyright ©2002, John Benjamins B.V.

Larval hosts of Australian Drosophilidae (Diptera): A field survey in subtropical and tropical Australia

The drosophilid fauna in Australia offers an important study system for evolutionary studies. Larval hosts are unknown for most species, however, and this imposes serious limits to understanding their ecological context. The present paper reports the first systematic, large-scale field survey of potential larval hosts to be conducted, in order to obtain an overview of the host utilisation patterns of Australian drosophilids. Potential hosts (mostly fruit and fungi) were collected from different vegetation types in northern and eastern Australia. Host data were obtained for 81 drosophilid species from 17 genera (or 28% of the known Fauna). Most genera were restricted to either fruit or fungi, although Scaptodrosophila spp. and Drosophila spp. were recorded from fruit, fungi, flowers and compost, and Drosophila spp. also emerged from the parasitic plant Balanophora fungosa. There was no evidence that use of either fruit or fungi was correlated to host phylogeny. Drosophilids emerged from hosts collected from all sampled vegetation types (rainforest, open forest, heath and domestic environments). Vegetation type influenced drosophilid diversity, both by affecting host availability and because some drosophilid species apparently restricted their search for hosts to particular vegetation types.