The snow storm of the 8th of March 2010 in Barcelona: a paradigmatic case

A heavy precipitation event swept over Catalonia (NE Spain) on 8 March 2010, with a total amount that ex- ceeded 100mm locally and snowfall of more than 60cm near the coast. Unusual for this region and at this time of the year, this snowfall event affected mainly the coastal region and was accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts in some areas. Most of the damage was due to"wet snow", a kind of snow that favours accretion on power lines and causes line-breaking and subsequent interruption of the electricity supply. This paper conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of the event to show its great societal impact and the role played by the recently developed social networks (it has been called the first"Snowfall 2.0"), as well to analyse the meteorologi- cal factors associated with the major damage, and to propose an indicator that could summarise them. With this aim, the paper introduces the event and its societal impact and com- pares it with other important snowfalls that have affected the Catalan coast, using the PRESSGAMA database. The sec- ond part of the paper shows the event"s main meteorological features and analyses the near-surface atmospheric variables responsible for the major damage through the application of the SAFRAN (Système d"analyse fournissant des renseigne- ments atmosphériques à la neige) mesoscale analysis, which, together with the proposed"wind, wet-snow index" (WWSI), allows to estimate the severity of the event. This snow storm provides further evidence of our vulnerability to natural haz- ards and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary ap- proach in analysing societal impact and the meteorological factors responsible for this kind of event.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.

Performance benchmarking and incentive regulation – considerations of directing signals for electricity distribution companies

After the restructuring process of the power supply industry, which for instance in Finland took place in the mid-1990s, free competition was introduced for the production and sale of electricity. Nevertheless, natural monopolies are found to be the most efficient form of production in the transmission and distribution of electricity, and therefore such companies remained franchised monopolies. To prevent the misuse of the monopoly position and to guarantee the rights of the customers, regulation of these monopoly companies is required. One of the main objectives of the restructuring process has been to increase the cost efficiency of the industry. Simultaneously, demands for the service quality are increasing. Therefore, many regulatory frameworks are being, or have been, reshaped so that companies are provided with stronger incentives for efficiency and quality improvements. Performance benchmarking has in many cases a central role in the practical implementation of such incentive schemes. Economic regulation with performance benchmarking attached to it provides companies with directing signals that tend to affect their investment and maintenance strategies. Since the asset lifetimes in the electricity distribution are typically many decades, investment decisions have far-reaching technical and economic effects. This doctoral thesis addresses the directing signals of incentive regulation and performance benchmarking in the field of electricity distribution. The theory of efficiency measurement and the most common regulation models are presented. The chief contributions of this work are (1) a new kind of analysis of the regulatory framework, so that the actual directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking for the electricity distribution companies are evaluated, (2) developing the methodology and a software tool for analysing the directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking in the electricity distribution sector, and (3) analysing the real-life regulatory frameworks by the developed methodology and further develop regulation model from the viewpoint of the directing signals. The results of this study have played a key role in the development of the Finnish regulatory model.

Comparison of electricity generation costs

The economical competitiveness of various power plant alternatives is compared. The comparison comprises merely electricity producing power plants. Combined heat and power (CHP) producing power will cover part of the future power deficit in Finland, but also condensing power plants for base load production will be needed. The following types of power plants are studied: nuclear power plant, combined cycle gas turbine plant, coal-fired condensing power plant, peat-fired condensing power plant, wood-fired condensing power plant and wind power plant. The calculations are carried out by using the annuity method with a real interest rate of 5 % per annum and with a fixed price level as of January 2008. With the annual peak load utilization time of 8000 hours (corresponding to a load factor of 91,3 %) the production costs would be for nuclear electricity 35,0 €/MWh, for gas based electricity 59,2 €/MWh and for coal based electricity 64,4 €/MWh, when using a price of 23 €/tonCO2 for the carbon dioxide emission trading. Without emission trading the production cost of gas electricity is 51,2 €/MWh and that of coal electricity 45,7 €/MWh and nuclear remains the same (35,0 €/MWh) In order to study the impact of changes in the input data, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out. It reveals that the advantage of the nuclear power is quite clear. E.g. the nuclear electricity is rather insensitive to the changes of nuclear fuel price, whereas for natural gas alternative the rising trend of gas price causes the greatest risk. Furthermore, increase of emission trading price improves the competitiveness of the nuclear alternative. The competitiveness and payback of the nuclear power investment is studied also as such by using various electricity market prices for determining the revenues generated by the investment. The profitability of the investment is excellent, if the market price of electricity is 50 €/MWh or more.

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Change of Electricity Distribution Industry: Drivers and Opening Business Opportunities

As a result of the recent regulatory amendments and other development trends in the electricity distribution business, the sector is currently witnessing radical restructuring that will eventually impact the business logics of the sector. This report represents upcoming changes in the electricity distribution industry and concentrates on the factors that are expected to be the most fundamental ones. Electricity network companies nowadays struggle with legislative and regulatory requirements that focus on both the operational efficiency and the reliability of electricity distribution networks. The forces that have an impact on the distribution network companies can be put into three main categories that define the transformation at a general level. Those are: (1) a requirement for a more functional marketplace for energy, (2) environmental aspects (combating climate change etc.), and (3) a strongly emphasized requirement for the security of energy supply. The first point arises from the legislators’ attempt to increase competition in electricity retail markets, the second one concerns both environmental protection and human safety issues, and the third one indicates societies’ reduced willingness to accept interruptions in electricity supply. In the future, regulation of electricity distribution business may lower the threshold for building more weather-resistant networks, which in turn means increased underground cabling. This development pattern is reinforced by tightening safety and environmental regulations that ultimately make the overhead lines expensive to build and maintain. The changes will require new approaches particularly in network planning, construction, and maintenance. The concept for planning, constructing, and maintaining cable networks is necessary because the interdependencies between network operations are strong, in other words, the nature of the operation requires a linkage to other operations.

Theoretical background for market emergence framework : Case: Electricity Distribution Industry

Both the competitive environment and the internal structure of an industrial organization are typically included in the processes which describe the strategic management processes of the firm, but less attention has been paid to the interdependence between these views. Therefore, this research focuses on explaining the particular conditions of an industry change, which lead managers to realign the firm in respect of its environment for generating competitive advantage. The research question that directs the development of the theoretical framework is: Why do firms outsource some of their functions? The three general stages of the analysis are related to the following research topics: (i) understanding forces that shape the industry, (ii) estimating the impacts of transforming customer preferences, rivalry, and changing capability bases on the relevance of existing assets and activities, and emergence of new business models, and (iii) developing optional structures for future value chains and understanding general boundaries for market emergence. The defined research setting contributes to the managerial research questions “Why do firms reorganize their value chains?”, “Why and how are decisions made?” Combining Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Resource-Based View (RBV) within an integrated framework makes it possible to evaluate the two dimensions of a company’s resources, namely the strategic value and transferability. The final decision of restructuring will be made based on an analysis of the actual business potential of the outsourcing, where benefits and risks are evaluated. The firm focuses on the risk of opportunism, hold-up problems, pricing, and opportunities to reach a complete contract, and finally on the direct benefits and risks for financial performance. The supplier analyzes the business potential of an activity outside the specific customer, the amount of customer-specific investments, the service provider’s competitive position, abilities to revenue gains in generic segments, and long-term dependence on the customer.

Prognosis of after spot volumes at the Scandinavian electricity market

The Thesis is dedicated to development of an operative tool to support decision making in after spot trading on the Nordic electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms on the spot and after spot markets are presented in the Thesis. Mathematical equations that describe electricity balance condition in the power system are offered. The main driving factors that impact deviation of actual electricity balance from the scheduled one (object) in the power system have been explored and mathematically defined. The behavioral model of the object and principal trends in change of state of the object under an impact of the driving factors are determined with the help of regression analysis made in Microsoft Office Excel. The behavioral model gives an indication for the total regulation volume (Elbas trades volume, volume of regulation market, balance power) for a certain hour that serves as the base input in estimating prices on the after spot markets. Proposals for development of methodologies of forecasting the after spot electricity prices are offered.

Emissão de mercúrio para a atmosfera pela queima de gás natural no Brasil

Increasing natural gas use in Brazil triggered a discussion of its role as a Hg source. We show that Hg emissions to the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion for power generation in Brazil contribute with 6.2% (4.2 t yr-1) to the total anthropogenic Hg atmospheric emissions, with coal combustion and biomass burning as major sources. Natural gas contributes with 0.04 t yr-1, mostly from electricity generation (88%) and industrial uses (7.6%). Preliminary results on Hg concentrations in natural gas suggest that a large fraction of it is trapped during refining and transport, which may create Hg point sources between extraction and consumption.

Analytical investigation of the atmospheric radiation limits in semigray atmospheres in radiative equilibrium

We model the wavelength-dependent absorption of atmospheric gases by assuming constant mass absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Such a semigray atmosphere is analytically solved by a discrete ordinate method. The general solution is analyzed for a water vapor saturated atmosphere that also contains a carbon dioxide-like absorbing gas in the infrared. A multiple stable equilibrium with a relative upper limit in the outgoing long-wave radiation is found. Differing from previous radiative–convective models, we find that the amount of carbon dioxide strongly modifies the value of this relative upper limit. This result is also obtained in a gray (i.e., equal absorption of radiation at all infrared wavelengths) water vapor saturated atmosphere. The destabilizing effect of carbon dioxide implies that massive carbon dioxide atmospheres are more likely to reach a runaway greenhouse state than thin carbon dioxide ones

Size distribution of atmospheric particulate ionic species at a coastal site in Portugal

A Berner impactor was used to collect size-differentiated aerosol samples from March to August 2003 in the city of Aveiro, on the Portuguese west coast. The samples were analysed for the main water-soluble ion species. The average concentration of sulphate, nitrate, chloride and ammonium was 6.38, 3.09, 1.67 and 1.27 µg m-3, respectively. The results show that SO4(2-) and NH4+ were consistently present in the fine fraction < 1 µm, which represents, on average, 72 and 89% of their total atmospheric concentrations, respectively. The NO3-particles were concentrated in the coarse size. Chloride presented the characteristic coarse mode for marine aerosols. During some spring/summer events, an ammonium surplus was observed (NH4+/SO4(2-) molar ratios > 2), possibly due to greater availability of ammonia coming from agricultural activities or from the neighbouring chemical industrial complex. During the remaining periods, the aerosol was found to be somewhat acidic and predominantly in the form of ammonium bisulphate (NH4+/SO4(2-) molar ratios = 0.5-1.25). Samples collected under a major or exclusive influence of maritime air masses were essentially constituted by coarse particles with enrichment in sea salt, while for air masses of continental origin the contribution of water-soluble ionic species in the fine mode was more pronounced.

Strategic Development of Electricity Distribution Networks – Concept and Methods

Strategic development of distribution networks plays a key role in the asset management in electricity distribution companies. Owing to the capital-intensive nature of the field and longspan operations of companies, the significance of a strategy is emphasised. A well-devised strategy combines awareness of challenges posed by the operating environment and the future targets of the distribution company. Economic regulation, ageing infrastructure, scarcity of resources and tightening supply requirements with challenges created by the climate change put a pressure on the strategy work. On the other hand, technology development related to network automation and underground cabling assists in answering these challenges. This dissertation aims at developing process knowledge and establishing a methodological framework by which key issues related to network development can be addressed. Moreover, the work develops tools by which the effects of changes in the operating environment on the distribution business can be analysed in the strategy work. To this end, the work discusses certain characteristics of the distribution business and describes the strategy process at a principle level. Further, the work defines the subtasks in the strategy process and presents the key elements in the strategy work and long-term network planning. The work delineates the factors having either a direct or indirect effect on strategic planning and development needs in the networks; in particular, outage costs constitute an important part of the economic regulation of the distribution business, reliability being thus a key driver in network planning. The dissertation describes the methodology and tools applied to cost and reliability analyses in the strategy work. The work focuses on determination of the techno-economic feasibility of different network development technologies; these feasibility surveys are linked to the economic regulation model of the distribution business, in particular from the viewpoint of reliability of electricity supply and allowed return. The work introduces the asset management system developed for research purposes and to support the strategy work, the calculation elements of the system and initial data used in the network analysis. The key elements of this asset management system are utilised in the dissertation. Finally, the study addresses the stages of strategic decision-making and compilation of investment strategies. Further, the work illustrates implementation of strategic planning in an actual distribution company environment.

USE OF A LOW-COST TEMPLATE-FREE ZSM-5 FOR ATMOSPHERIC PETROLEUM RESIDUE PYROLYSIS

To understand the physicochemical properties and catalytic activity during the pyrolysis of atmospheric petroleum residue, a template-free ZSM-5 zeolite was synthesized using a direct method without additional seeds or an organic structure director and compared with conventionally synthesized ZSM-5. The crystallinities of the two zeolites were evaluated by XRD and FTIR and were quite similar; however, structural analyses using SEM and argon physisorption revealed that the zeolites diverged in particle diameter and in the external surface area of the micropores. The synthesis procedure without a template incorporated additional aluminum into the crystalline network, according to ICP-AES and TPD NH3 experiments. The catalytic pyrolysis performed over the template-free ZSM-5 generated results comparable to those for pyrolysis performed over the conventional ZSM-5 according to its hydrocarbon distribution. The selectivity to aromatics compounds was exactly the same for both ZSM-5 zeolites, and these values stand out compared to thermal pyrolysis. The template-free ZSM-5 produced 20% of light hydrocarbons (C4-C6), where such compounds are olefins and paraffins of great interest to the petrochemical industry. Therefore, template-free ZSM-5 is promising for industrial use due to its lowered synthesis time, low-cost and significant distribution to light hydrocarbons.

Managing regulatory risks when outsourcing network-related services in the electricity distribution sector

Deregulation of the electricity sector liberated the electricity sale and production for competitive forces while in the network business, electricity transmission and distribution, natural monopoly positions were recognised. Deregulation was accompanied by efficiencyoriented thinking on the whole electricity supply industry. For electricity distribution this meant a transition from a public service towards profit-driven business guided by economic regulation. Regulation is the primary means to enforce societal and other goals in the regulated monopoly sector. The design of economic regulation is concerned with two main attributes; end-customer price and quality of electricity distribution services. Regulation limits the costs of the regulated company but also defines the desired quality of monopoly services. The characteristics of the regulatory framework and the incentives it provides are therefore decisive for the electricity distribution sector. Regulation is not a static factor; changes in the regulatory practices cause discontinuity points, which in turn generate risks. A variety of social and environmental concerns together with technological advancements have emphasised the relevance of quality regulation, which is expected to lead to the large-scale replacement of overhead lines with underground cables. The electricity network construction activity is therefore currently witnessing revolutionary changes in its competitive landscape. In a business characterised by high statutory involvement and a high level of sunk costs, recognising and understanding the regulatory risks becomes a key success factor. As a response, electricity distribution companies have turned into outsourcing to attain efficiency and quality goals. This doctoral thesis addresses the impacts of regulatory risks on electricity network construction, which is a commonly outsourced activity in the electricity distribution network sector. The chosen research approach is characterised as an action analytical research on account of the fact that regulatory risks are greatly dependent on the individual nature of the regulatory regime applied in the electricity distribution sector. The main contribution of this doctoral thesis is to develop a concept for recognising and managing the business risks stemming from economic regulation. The degree of outsourcing in the sector is expected to increase in years to come. The results of the research provide new knowledge to manage the regulatory risks when outsourcing services.