PREDICTING THE BOILING POINT OF PCDD/Fs BY THE QSPR METHOD BASED ON THE MOLECULAR DISTANCE-EDGE VECTOR INDEX

The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for the boiling point (Tb) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.

Classification of antimicrobial resistance using artificial neural networks and the relationship of 38 genes associated with the virulence of Escherichia coli isolates from broilers

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) is responsible for various pathological processes in birds and is considered as one of the principal causes of morbidity and mortality, associated with economic losses to the poultry industry. The objective of this study was to demonstrate that it is possible to predict antimicrobial resistance of 256 samples (APEC) using 38 different genes responsible for virulence factors, through a computer program of artificial neural networks (ANNs). A second target was to find the relationship between (PI) pathogenicity index and resistance to 14 antibiotics by statistical analysis. The results showed that the RNAs were able to make the correct classification of the behavior of APEC samples with a range from 74.22 to 98.44%, and make it possible to predict antimicrobial resistance. The statistical analysis to assess the relationship between the pathogenic index (PI) and resistance against 14 antibiotics showed that these variables are independent, i.e. peaks in PI can happen without changing the antimicrobial resistance, or the opposite, changing the antimicrobial resistance without a change in PI.

Detection of Horizontal Two-Phase Flow Patterns Through a Neural Network Model

One of the main problems related to the transport and manipulation of multiphase fluids concerns the existence of characteristic flow patterns and its strong influence on important operation parameters. A good example of this occurs in gas-liquid chemical reactors in which maximum efficiencies can be achieved by maintaining a finely dispersed bubbly flow to maximize the total interfacial area. Thus, the ability to automatically detect flow patterns is of crucial importance, especially for the adequate operation of multiphase systems. This work describes the application of a neural model to process the signals delivered by a direct imaging probe to produce a diagnostic of the corresponding flow pattern. The neural model is constituted of six independent neural modules, each of which trained to detect one of the main horizontal flow patterns, and a last winner-take-all layer responsible for resolving when two or more patterns are simultaneously detected. Experimental signals representing different bubbly, intermittent, annular and stratified flow patterns were used to validate the neural model.

Controlling full penetration in MAG welding by the application of infrared thermography and neural network

In this study, an infrared thermography based sensor was studied with regard to usability and the accuracy of sensor data as a weld penetration signal in gas metal arc welding. The object of the study was to evaluate a specific sensor type which measures thermography from solidified weld surface. The purpose of the study was to provide expert data for developing a sensor system in adaptive metal active gas (MAG) welding. Welding experiments with considered process variables and recorded thermal profiles were saved to a database for further analysis. To perform the analysis within a reasonable amount of experiments, the process parameter variables were gradually altered by at least 10 %. Later, the effects of process variables on weld penetration and thermography itself were considered. SFS-EN ISO 5817 standard (2014) was applied for classifying the quality of the experiments. As a final step, a neural network was taught based on the experiments. The experiments show that the studied thermography sensor and the neural network can be used for controlling full penetration though they have minor limitations, which are presented in results and discussion. The results are consistent with previous studies and experiments found in the literature.

Evolutionary synthesis of stochastic gene network models using feature-based search spaces

A feature-based fitness function is applied in a genetic programming system to synthesize stochastic gene regulatory network models whose behaviour is defined by a time course of protein expression levels. Typically, when targeting time series data, the fitness function is based on a sum-of-errors involving the values of the fluctuating signal. While this approach is successful in many instances, its performance can deteriorate in the presence of noise. This thesis explores a fitness measure determined from a set of statistical features characterizing the time series' sequence of values, rather than the actual values themselves. Through a series of experiments involving symbolic regression with added noise and gene regulatory network models based on the stochastic 'if-calculus, it is shown to successfully target oscillating and non-oscillating signals. This practical and versatile fitness function offers an alternate approach, worthy of consideration for use in algorithms that evaluate noisy or stochastic behaviour.

Apprentissage de représentations sur-complètes par entraînement d’auto-encodeurs

Les avancés dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle, permettent à des systèmes informatiques de résoudre des tâches de plus en plus complexes liées par exemple à la vision, à la compréhension de signaux sonores ou au traitement de la langue. Parmi les modèles existants, on retrouve les Réseaux de Neurones Artificiels (RNA), dont la popularité a fait un grand bond en avant avec la découverte de Hinton et al. [22], soit l’utilisation de Machines de Boltzmann Restreintes (RBM) pour un pré-entraînement non-supervisé couche après couche, facilitant grandement l’entraînement supervisé du réseau à plusieurs couches cachées (DBN), entraînement qui s’avérait jusqu’alors très difficile à réussir. Depuis cette découverte, des chercheurs ont étudié l’efficacité de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement, telles que l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs traditionnels(SAE) [5, 38], et l’empilement d’auto-encodeur débruiteur (SDAE) [44]. C’est dans ce contexte qu’a débuté la présente étude. Après un bref passage en revue des notions de base du domaine de l’apprentissage machine et des méthodes de pré-entraînement employées jusqu’à présent avec les modules RBM, AE et DAE, nous avons approfondi notre compréhension du pré-entraînement de type SDAE, exploré ses différentes propriétés et étudié des variantes de SDAE comme stratégie d’initialisation d’architecture profonde. Nous avons ainsi pu, entre autres choses, mettre en lumière l’influence du niveau de bruit, du nombre de couches et du nombre d’unités cachées sur l’erreur de généralisation du SDAE. Nous avons constaté une amélioration de la performance sur la tâche supervisée avec l’utilisation des bruits poivre et sel (PS) et gaussien (GS), bruits s’avérant mieux justifiés que celui utilisé jusqu’à présent, soit le masque à zéro (MN). De plus, nous avons démontré que la performance profitait d’une emphase imposée sur la reconstruction des données corrompues durant l’entraînement des différents DAE. Nos travaux ont aussi permis de révéler que le DAE était en mesure d’apprendre, sur des images naturelles, des filtres semblables à ceux retrouvés dans les cellules V1 du cortex visuel, soit des filtres détecteurs de bordures. Nous aurons par ailleurs pu montrer que les représentations apprises du SDAE, composées des caractéristiques ainsi extraites, s’avéraient fort utiles à l’apprentissage d’une machine à vecteurs de support (SVM) linéaire ou à noyau gaussien, améliorant grandement sa performance de généralisation. Aussi, nous aurons observé que similairement au DBN, et contrairement au SAE, le SDAE possédait une bonne capacité en tant que modèle générateur. Nous avons également ouvert la porte à de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement et découvert le potentiel de l’une d’entre elles, soit l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs rebruiteurs (SRAE).

Modèle informatique du coapprentissage des ganglions de la base et du cortex : l'apprentissage par renforcement et le développement de représentations

Tout au long de la vie, le cerveau développe des représentations de son environnement permettant à l’individu d’en tirer meilleur profit. Comment ces représentations se développent-elles pendant la quête de récompenses demeure un mystère. Il est raisonnable de penser que le cortex est le siège de ces représentations et que les ganglions de la base jouent un rôle important dans la maximisation des récompenses. En particulier, les neurones dopaminergiques semblent coder un signal d’erreur de prédiction de récompense. Cette thèse étudie le problème en construisant, à l’aide de l’apprentissage machine, un modèle informatique intégrant de nombreuses évidences neurologiques. Après une introduction au cadre mathématique et à quelques algorithmes de l’apprentissage machine, un survol de l’apprentissage en psychologie et en neuroscience et une revue des modèles de l’apprentissage dans les ganglions de la base, la thèse comporte trois articles. Le premier montre qu’il est possible d’apprendre à maximiser ses récompenses tout en développant de meilleures représentations des entrées. Le second article porte sur l'important problème toujours non résolu de la représentation du temps. Il démontre qu’une représentation du temps peut être acquise automatiquement dans un réseau de neurones artificiels faisant office de mémoire de travail. La représentation développée par le modèle ressemble beaucoup à l’activité de neurones corticaux dans des tâches similaires. De plus, le modèle montre que l’utilisation du signal d’erreur de récompense peut accélérer la construction de ces représentations temporelles. Finalement, il montre qu’une telle représentation acquise automatiquement dans le cortex peut fournir l’information nécessaire aux ganglions de la base pour expliquer le signal dopaminergique. Enfin, le troisième article évalue le pouvoir explicatif et prédictif du modèle sur différentes situations comme la présence ou l’absence d’un stimulus (conditionnement classique ou de trace) pendant l’attente de la récompense. En plus de faire des prédictions très intéressantes en lien avec la littérature sur les intervalles de temps, l’article révèle certaines lacunes du modèle qui devront être améliorées. Bref, cette thèse étend les modèles actuels de l’apprentissage des ganglions de la base et du système dopaminergique au développement concurrent de représentations temporelles dans le cortex et aux interactions de ces deux structures.

Document Image Segmentation and Compression using Artificial Neural Networks and Evolutionary Methods

The work is intended to study the following important aspects of document image processing and develop new methods. (1) Segmentation ofdocument images using adaptive interval valued neuro-fuzzy method. (2) Improving the segmentation procedure using Simulated Annealing technique. (3) Development of optimized compression algorithms using Genetic Algorithm and parallel Genetic Algorithm (4) Feature extraction of document images (5) Development of IV fuzzy rules. This work also helps for feature extraction and foreground and background identification. The proposed work incorporates Evolutionary and hybrid methods for segmentation and compression of document images. A study of different neural networks used in image processing, the study of developments in the area of fuzzy logic etc is carried out in this work

Using Neural Network Classifier Support Vector Machine Regression for the prediction of Melting Point of Drug – like compounds

In our study we use a kernel based classification technique, Support Vector Machine Regression for predicting the Melting Point of Drug – like compounds in terms of Topological Descriptors, Topological Charge Indices, Connectivity Indices and 2D Auto Correlations. The Machine Learning model was designed, trained and tested using a dataset of 100 compounds and it was found that an SVMReg model with RBF Kernel could predict the Melting Point with a mean absolute error 15.5854 and Root Mean Squared Error 19.7576

Soft Computing Approach for Optimization of siRNA Efficiency Prediction for Post-transcriptional Gene Silencing

Post-transcriptional gene silencing by RNA interference is mediated by small interfering RNA called siRNA. This gene silencing mechanism can be exploited therapeutically to a wide variety of disease-associated targets, especially in AIDS, neurodegenerative diseases, cholesterol and cancer on mice with the hope of extending these approaches to treat humans. Over the recent past, a significant amount of work has been undertaken to understand the gene silencing mediated by exogenous siRNA. The design of efficient exogenous siRNA sequences is challenging because of many issues related to siRNA. While designing efficient siRNA, target mRNAs must be selected such that their corresponding siRNAs are likely to be efficient against that target and unlikely to accidentally silence other transcripts due to sequence similarity. So before doing gene silencing by siRNAs, it is essential to analyze their off-target effects in addition to their inhibition efficiency against a particular target. Hence designing exogenous siRNA with good knock-down efficiency and target specificity is an area of concern to be addressed. Some methods have been developed already by considering both inhibition efficiency and off-target possibility of siRNA against agene. Out of these methods, only a few have achieved good inhibition efficiency, specificity and sensitivity. The main focus of this thesis is to develop computational methods to optimize the efficiency of siRNA in terms of “inhibition capacity and off-target possibility” against target mRNAs with improved efficacy, which may be useful in the area of gene silencing and drug design for tumor development. This study aims to investigate the currently available siRNA prediction approaches and to devise a better computational approach to tackle the problem of siRNA efficacy by inhibition capacity and off-target possibility. The strength and limitations of the available approaches are investigated and taken into consideration for making improved solution. Thus the approaches proposed in this study extend some of the good scoring previous state of the art techniques by incorporating machine learning and statistical approaches and thermodynamic features like whole stacking energy to improve the prediction accuracy, inhibition efficiency, sensitivity and specificity. Here, we propose one Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, and two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for siRNA efficiency prediction. In SVM model, the classification property is used to classify whether the siRNA is efficient or inefficient in silencing a target gene. The first ANNmodel, named siRNA Designer, is used for optimizing the inhibition efficiency of siRNA against target genes. The second ANN model, named Optimized siRNA Designer, OpsiD, produces efficient siRNAs with high inhibition efficiency to degrade target genes with improved sensitivity-specificity, and identifies the off-target knockdown possibility of siRNA against non-target genes. The models are trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. The validations are conducted using Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Mathews Correlation Coefficient, Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis, Accuracy of prediction, Sensitivity and Specificity. It is found that the approach, OpsiD, is capable of predicting the inhibition capacity of siRNA against a target mRNA with improved results over the state of the art techniques. Also we are able to understand the influence of whole stacking energy on efficiency of siRNA. The model is further improved by including the ability to identify the “off-target possibility” of predicted siRNA on non-target genes. Thus the proposed model, OpsiD, can predict optimized siRNA by considering both “inhibition efficiency on target genes and off-target possibility on non-target genes”, with improved inhibition efficiency, specificity and sensitivity. Since we have taken efforts to optimize the siRNA efficacy in terms of “inhibition efficiency and offtarget possibility”, we hope that the risk of “off-target effect” while doing gene silencing in various bioinformatics fields can be overcome to a great extent. These findings may provide new insights into cancer diagnosis, prognosis and therapy by gene silencing. The approach may be found useful for designing exogenous siRNA for therapeutic applications and gene silencing techniques in different areas of bioinformatics.

Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

Using self organizing maps on compositional data

Self-organizing maps (Kohonen 1997) is a type of artificial neural network developed to explore patterns in high-dimensional multivariate data. The conventional version of the algorithm involves the use of Euclidean metric in the process of adaptation of the model vectors, thus rendering in theory a whole methodology incompatible with non-Euclidean geometries. In this contribution we explore the two main aspects of the problem: 1. Whether the conventional approach using Euclidean metric can shed valid results with compositional data. 2. If a modification of the conventional approach replacing vectorial sum and scalar multiplication by the canonical operators in the simplex (i.e. perturbation and powering) can converge to an adequate solution. Preliminary tests showed that both methodologies can be used on compositional data. However, the modified version of the algorithm performs poorer than the conventional version, in particular, when the data is pathological. Moreover, the conventional ap- proach converges faster to a solution, when data is \well-behaved". Key words: Self Organizing Map; Artificial Neural networks; Compositional data

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.