The behavior of temporary sales in a macroeconomic context

Nós investigamos promoções temporárias usando uma base de dados detalhada de 13 anos sobre preços ao consumidor no Brasil, com cotações de preços coletadas decendialmente. Nós encontramos forte evidências da existência de relação entre a frequência e tamanho de promoções e as variáveis macroeconômicas. A crença comum na literatura de que promoções não reagem a mudanças nas variáveis macroeconômicas pode ser devido a baixa volatilidade do cenário macro- econômico nos países analisados até o presente momento.

Testing the optimality of aggregate consumption decisions: is there rule-of-thumb behavior?

Consumption is an important macroeconomic aggregate, being about 70% of GNP. Finding sub-optimal behavior in consumption decisions casts a serious doubt on whether optimizing behavior is applicable on an economy-wide scale, which, in turn, challenge whether it is applicable at all. This paper has several contributions to the literature on consumption optimality. First, we provide a new result on the basic rule-of-thumb regression, showing that it is observational equivalent to the one obtained in a well known optimizing real-business-cycle model. Second, for rule-of-thumb tests based on the Asset-Pricing Equation, we show that the omission of the higher-order term in the log-linear approximation yields inconsistent estimates when lagged observables are used as instruments. However, these are exactly the instruments that have been traditionally used in this literature. Third, we show that nonlinear estimation of a system of N Asset-Pricing Equations can be done efficiently even if the number of asset returns (N) is high vis-a-vis the number of time-series observations (T). We argue that efficiency can be restored by aggregating returns into a single measure that fully captures intertemporal substitution. Indeed, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. This forms the basis of a new test of rule-of-thumb behavior, which can be viewed as testing for the importance of rule-of-thumb consumers when the optimizing agent holds an equally-weighted portfolio or a weighted portfolio of traded assets. Using our setup, we find no signs of either rule-of-thumb behavior for U.S. consumers or of habit-formation in consumption decisions in econometric tests. Indeed, we show that the simple representative agent model with a CRRA utility is able to explain the time series data on consumption and aggregate returns. There, the intertemporal discount factor is significant and ranges from 0.956 to 0.969 while the relative risk-aversion coefficient is precisely estimated ranging from 0.829 to 1.126. There is no evidence of rejection in over-identifying-restriction tests.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

The impact of price expectations on consumer's behavior in frequently purchased goods markets: empirical evidence and implications

Este trabalho investiga como os padrões de compras de consumidores de bens estocáveis são afetados por suas expectativas de preços. Usando um modelo dinâmico padrão de maximização da utilidade, deriva-se uma expressão analítica para as compras dos consumidores como uma função das suas expectativas em relação aos preços futuros. Em seguida, uma versão mais tratável do modelo é construída, de forma a ilustrar graficamente como os diferentes tipos de expectativas de preços implicam diferentes padrões de compras dos consumidores. Além disso, na aplicação empírica, investigo qual o modelo de expectativas de preços, entre aqueles comumente utilizados na literatura, é consistente com os dados. Por fim, encontra-se suficiente heterogeneidade em expectativa de preços dos consumidores. Mostra-se que famílias de pequeno porte acreditam que os preços seguem um processo de Markov de primeira ordem, enquanto famílias de alta renda são racionais.

Circadian variation with a diurnal bimodal profile on scent-marking behavior in captive common marmosets (callitrhix jacchus)

Scent-marking behavior is associated with different behavioral contexts in callitrichids, including signalizing a territory, location of feeding resources, and social rank. In marmosets and tamarins it is also associated with intersexual communication. Though it appears very important for the daily routine of the individuals, very few researchers have investigated distribution through the 24-h cycle. In a preliminary report, we described a preferential incidence of this behavior 2 h before nocturnal rest in families of common marmosets. We expand the data using 8 family groups (28 subjects), 8 fathers, 6 mothers, 8 nonreproductive adults (4 sons and 4 daughters), and 6 juvenile (3 sons and 3 daughters) offspring that we kept in outdoor cages under natural environmental conditions. We recorded the frequency of anogenital scent marking for each group during the light phase, twice a wk, for 4 consecutive wks, from March 1998 to September 1999. Cosinor test detected 24- and 8-h variations in 89.3% and 85.7% of the subjects, respectively, regardless of sex or reproductive status. The 8-h component is a consequence of the 2 peaks for the behavior, at the beginning and end of the light phase. Daily distribution of scent marking is similar to that others described previously for motor activity in marmosets. The coincident rhythmical patterns for both behaviors seem to be associated with feeding behavior, as described for callitrichids in free-ranging conditions, involving an increase in foraging activities early in the morning and shortly before nocturnal rest

The effect of increased light intensity on the aggressive behavior of the Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Teleostei: Cichlidae)

Animals show behavioral and physiological changes that emerge in response to environmental perturbations (i.e., emergency life-history stages). In this study, we investigate the effects of light intensity on aggressive encounters and social stability in groups of adult male Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758). The study compared the behavior observed under low (280.75 ± 50.60 lx) and high (1394.14 ± 520.32 lx) light intensities, with 12 replicates for each treatment. Adult fish were isolated in 36-L aquaria for 96 hours, and three males were grouped for 11 days in 140-L aquaria. Agonistic behavior was video-recorded (10 min/day) on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th day to quantify aggressive interactions and social stability. There was an effect of light intensity and day of observation on the total number of agonistic behaviors performed by the fish group. Besides, increased frequency of aggressive interactions (the sum of the four sessions) by the alpha, beta and gamma fish occurred at the higher light intensity. The dominance ranks of the fish remained unchanged across the observation sessions under both the low and high light intensities. We concluded that enhanced light intensity has a cumulative effect that increases the aggressiveness of the Nile tilapia but that this effect is not sufficiently strong to destabilize the social hierarchy.

Ovarian remnant syndrome in small animals

The ovarian remnant syndrome (ORS) is an iatrogenic disorder in bitches and queens, which is characterized by recurrence of estrus following surgical spay, due to the presence of a piece of ovarian tissue within the abdominal cavity. In most cases, the remnant ovary is found in the right ovarian pedicle, due to its topographic position, deeper and more cranial than the left ovary. The main clinical signs of ORS in small animals are the heat behavior and the presence of vaginal swelling/secretion, especially in canines. The diagnosis should be performed by means of vaginal cytology when attraction of males is detected, serum estrogen and progesterone levels and/or by challenging test with GnRH or hCG administration. However, vaginal citology is the most suitable and less expensive diagnostic tool. Nowadays the treatment of choice is a new laparotomy or laparoscopy, followed by removal of the remnant ovarian tissue. The surgical treatment has more chances of success if it is performed in the diestrus (i.e., between 15 and 60 days after the detection of attraction of males). Furthermore, a careful and accurate surgical procedure aided by advanced visualization techniques during ovariohysterectomy or ovariectomy is the best way to prevent ORS in companion animals.

Dietary L-tryptophan alters aggression in juvenile matrinxa Brycon amazonicus

This study evaluated the effect of dietary supplementation with -tryptophan (L-TRP), a serotonin precursor, on the aggressiveness of juvenile matrinx . Fish were kept in individual aquaria for 7 days receiving the diets: D1 (control: 0.47% of TRP), D2 (0.94% of TRP), D3 (1.88% of TRP), and D4 (3.76% of TRP). After this, they were grouped with an intruder fish to establish a resident-intruder relationship during periods of 20 min. Blood cortisol, glucose, chloride, sodium and calcium; hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count and volume; liver glycogen and lipids were measured. Territoriality had significant effect on the aggressiveness of matrinx (the residents were more aggressive than intruders, < 0.001) and tryptophan significantly affected their behavior. Fish fed with the D2 diet presented a longer latency until the first attack ( = 0.0069) and bit the intruder fewer times ( = 0.0136) during the period of observation, compared to the control group. The frequency of bites and chases after the first attack was not affected by the dietary supplementation of TRP. Physiological variables were not significantly affected by the diet, except for a moderate increase in cortisol level in fish fed with D2 diet after the fight, indicating slight activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-interrenal axis. The results show that juvenile matrinx have aggressive and territorial behavior and that a diet containing 9.4 g TRP kg(-1) alter their aggressiveness, without affecting the stress-related physiological parameters.

Comparative study of the sedative and antinociceptive effects of levomepromazine, azaperone and midazolam in laboratory animals

Os efeitos sedativos e antinociceptivos da levomepromazina, azaperone e midazolam foram avaliados utilizando-se três testes de comportamento em ratos e camundongos. No teste da atividade locomotora espontânea em campo aberto observou-se que tanto o comportamento exploratório como a atividade locomotora espontânea foram significativamente diminuídos quando se utilizou levomepromazina e azaperone. O efeito causado pelo azaperone foi menos prolongado quando comparado ao da levomepromazina. O midazolam causou diminuição do comportamento exploratório sem alterar a atividade locomotora espontânea. Quando se avaliou o efeito antinociceptivo por meio da latência para o reflexo da retirada da cauda em ratos após estímulo doloroso, as drogas não apresentaram nenhum efeito antinociceptivo observável. No teste das contorções em camundongos, os fármacos foram capazes de abolir as contorções quando comparados ao efeito do grupo-controle. Levomepromazina, azaperone e midazolam nas doses utilizadas foram capazes de inibir o comportamento exploratório de ratos, comprovando seus efeitos sedativos. Com relação aos efeitos antinociceptivos para dor visceral, eles foram capazes de inibir as contorções.

Canopy characteristics and behavior of Nellore heifers in Brachiaria brizantha pastures under different grazing heights at a continuous stocking rate

The objective of this study was to evaluate the Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu canopy structure maintained at different grazing heights under a continuous stocking rate and with a dietary supplementation strategy for the animals during the rainy season. This study also intended to observe the relationships of these variables with the grazing behaviors of the heifers. The effects of three canopy heights (15, 25 and 35 cm) were evaluated in association with three types of supplements: one mineral and two protein/energy supplements, the first with a high rumen degradable protein and energy and the others with a low ratio. Both the protein/energy supplements were provided at 0.3% of body weight/day. The experimental design was completely randomized, with two replications and repeated measures, and took place during the period from January to April 2008. The supplementation strategies did not affect any variable related to the canopy structure. Total and green herbage masses and the ratio of green/dead material increased with canopy height. The leaf/stem ratio was higher in the lowest canopy height: 15 cm. Changes in the canopy structure caused variations in the grazing behavior of the animals. Animals maintained in the 15-cm-tall pasture grazed for a longer time, increasing the time for each meal, but the number of meals was lower than that of the animals grazing within the 35-cm-tall pasture. The grazing time of animals receiving the energy/protein supplement was lower only in the period of the day during which it was supplied. Canopy structure is affected by sward height, and changes animal behavior. Supplementation does not affect the canopy structure of the pastures with similar heights.

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização numérica de antenas para aplicações RFID utilizando o método das ondas - WCIP

In recent years, the radio frequency identification technology (RFID) has gained great interest both industrial communities as scientific communities. Its ability to locate and monitor objects, animals and persons with active or passive tags allows easy development, with good cost-benefice and still presents undeniable benefits in applications ranging from logistics to healthcare, robotics, security, among others. Within this aspect what else comes excelling are RFID tags and the antennas used in RFID readers. Most tags have antennas omnidirectional and are usually manufactured as dipoles modified printed. The primary purpose of a project of antenna for tag is to achieve the required input impedance to perform a good marriage impedance with the load impedance of the chip. Already the objective principal in project of antennas for readers is to achieve reduced sizes and structures with good data transmission capacity. This work brings the numerical characterization of antennas for RFID applications, being these divided into tags RFID and antennas for RFID readers. Three tags RFID and two antennas for RFID readers, found in literature, are analyzed. The analysis of these structures is made using the Method of Waves - WCIP. Initial results found in the literature are compared with those obtained through simulations in WCIP with objective to show that the Method of Waves is able to analyze such structures. To illustrate the results obtained in simulations is presented the behavior of electric and magnetic fields. It also performed a literature review on the characteristics and principles of RFID technology. Suggestions for continuity to this work are presented

Longitudinal study of daily variation of rats' behavior in the elevated plus-maze

We conducted a longitudinal study about daily variation of Wistar male rats' behavior in the elevated plus-maze (EPM) evaluated in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 12th, and 18th months of life. Animals were submitted to the plus-maze in 12 sessions at 2-h intervals (n=72, 6 per time point). Spontaneous rest-activity rhythm of four animals was assessed by observation of 24-h videotape records. Time series were analyzed by Cosinor method. Behavioral rates on the six occasions and in light and dark phases were compared by means of two-way ANOVA with repeated measures. Exploratory behavior in EPM was smaller in the light phase and in older animals. Higher values of open and closed arms exploration were observed in the first and third months of the dark phase, and in the first month of the light phase. Adjustment to the 24-h period was significant at all stages for rest-activity data, number of entries in closed arms, and time on center, and for three to five stages for open-arm exploration. In general, 24 h variability was more pronounced in younger animals compared with older ones. The present study showed that: (1) a significant amount of total variability of the behavioral indexes analyzed could be attributed to 24 h variation, (2) light/dark phases differences in EPM exploration were present at all developmental stages, (3) older Wistar rats explored less the EPM and were less active in their home cage compared with younger ones, and (4) behavioral indexes (EPM) decrease was phase related and partially related to a reorganization of rest-activity rhythm. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of nitric oxide in the periaqueductal gray in defensive behavior in mice: influence of prior local N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor activation and aversive condition

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)