At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Depression predicts persistence of paranoia in clinical high-risk patients to psychosis: results of the EPOS project.

BACKGROUND The link between depression and paranoia has long been discussed in psychiatric literature. Because the causality of this association is difficult to study in patients with full-blown psychosis, we aimed to investigate how clinical depression relates to the presence and occurrence of paranoid symptoms in clinical high-risk (CHR) patients. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed for suspiciousness and paranoid symptoms with the structured interview for prodromal syndromes at baseline, 9- and 18-month follow-up. At baseline, clinical diagnoses were assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, childhood adversities by the Trauma and Distress Scale, trait-like suspiciousness by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, and anxiety and depressiveness by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. RESULTS At baseline, 54.3 % of CHR patients reported at least moderate paranoid symptoms. At 9- and 18-month follow-ups, the corresponding figures were 28.3 and 24.4 %. Depressive, obsessive-compulsive and somatoform disorders, emotional and sexual abuse, and anxiety and suspiciousness associated with paranoid symptoms. In multivariate modelling, depressive and obsessive-compulsive disorders, sexual abuse, and anxiety predicted persistence of paranoid symptoms. CONCLUSION Depressive disorder was one of the major clinical factors predicting persistence of paranoid symptoms in CHR patients. In addition, obsessive-compulsive disorder, childhood sexual abuse, and anxiety associated with paranoia. Effective pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatment of these disorders and anxiety may reduce paranoid symptoms in CHR patients.

First Signs of Emerging Psychosis

The majority of first-episode psychoses are preceded by a prodromal phase that is several years on average, frequently leads to some decline in psychosocial functioning and offers the opportunity for early detection within the framework of an indicated prevention. To this, two approaches are currently mainly followed. The ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria were explicitly developed to predict first-episode psychosis within 12 months, and indeed the majority of conversions in clinical UHR samples seem to occur within the first 12 months of initial assessment. Their main criterion, the attenuated psychotic symptoms criterion, captures symptoms that resemble positive symptoms of psychosis (i.e. delusions, hallucinations and formal thought disorders) with the exception that some level of insight is still maintained, and these frequently compromise functioning already. In contrast, the basic symptom criteria try to catch patients at increased risk of psychoses at the earliest possible time, i.e. ideally when only the first subtle disturbances in information processing have developed that are experienced with full insight and do not yet overload the person's coping abilities, and thus have not yet resulted in any functional decline. First results from prospective studies not only support this view, but indicate that the combination of both approaches might be a more favorable way to increase sensitivity and detect risk earlier, as well as to establish a change-sensitive risk stratification approach.

Revisiting the Basic Symptom Concept: Toward Translating Risk Symptoms for Psychosis into Neurobiological Targets

In its initial formulation, the concept of basic symptoms (BSs) integrated findings on the early symptomatic course of schizophrenia and first in vivo evidence of accompanying brain aberrations. It argued that the subtle subclinical disturbances in mental processes described as BSs were the most direct self-experienced expression of the underlying neurobiological aberrations of the disease. Other characteristic symptoms of psychosis (e.g., delusions and hallucinations) were conceptualized as secondary phenomena, resulting from dysfunctional beliefs and suboptimal coping styles with emerging BSs and/or concomitant stressors. While BSs can occur in many mental disorders, in particular affective disorders, a subset of perceptive and cognitive BSs appear to be specific to psychosis and are currently employed in two alternative risk criteria. However, despite their clinical recognition in the early detection of psychosis, neurobiological research on the aetiopathology of psychosis with neuroimaging methods has only just begun to consider the neural correlate of BSs. This perspective paper reviews the emerging evidence of an association between BSs and aberrant brain activation, connectivity patterns, and metabolism, and outlines promising routes for the use of BSs in aetiopathological research on psychosis.

The role of vulnerability factors in individuals with an at-risk mental state of psychosis

Background Several indicators of heightened vulnerability to psychosis and relevant stressors have been identified. However, it has rarely been studied prospectively to what extent these vulnerability factors are in fact more frequently present in individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis. Moreover, it remains unknown whether any of these contribute to the prediction of psychosis onset in at-risk mental state individuals. Methods There were 28 healthy controls, 86 first-episode psychosis patients and 127 at-risk mental state individuals recruited within the Basel “Früherkennung von Psychosen” project. Relative frequencies of selected vulnerability factors for psychosis were compared between healthy controls, psychosis patients, those at-risk mental state individuals with subsequent psychosis onset (n = 31) and those without subsequent psychosis onset (n = 55). Survival analyses were applied to determine associations between time to transition to psychosis and vulnerability factors in all 127 at-risk mental state individuals. Results The vulnerability factors/indicators such as “difficulties during school education or vocational training”, “difficulties during employment”, “being single”, “difficulties with intimate relationships” and “being burdened with specific stressful situations” were more commonly found in the at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis group than in healthy controls. Conclusions At-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis individuals more frequently present with vulnerability factors. Individual vulnerability factors appear, however, not to be predictive for an onset of psychosis.

Fragmentos aturdidos. La hibridación genérico-discursiva en 4.48 Psychosis de Sarah Kane

El presente trabajo se propone reflexionar sobre las principales problemáticas en torno a la representación de la subjetividad desplegadas en la obra de la dramaturga británica Sarah Kane a partir del análisis de su último drama, 4.48 Psychosis (1999). Con esta obra Kane lleva al extremo la búsqueda de colapsar ciertos límites para hacer de la forma y del contenido una misma cosa. La naturaleza fragmentaria del texto, la ausencia de trama o anécdota y la imposibilidad de identificar la presencia de uno o más personajes en escena, colaboran en la creación de esa atmósfera densa y ambigua que se correlaciona con el cuadro patológico del yo anticipado en el título de la pieza. Asimismo, la puesta en funcionamiento de estrategias de hibridación genérica, de apropiación, parodia y reescritura de diferentes modalidades discursivas (monólogos líricos, conversaciones entre doctor y paciente, el discurso de los cuestionarios médicos, de la psiquiatría y de las historias clínicas, citas extraídas de literatura de autoayuda o del libro bíblico del Apocalipsis, etc.) se constituye como práctica privilegiada para reflejar el descentramiento y la dispersión del sujeto y el borramiento de los límites entre realidad- ficción, sueño-vigilia, yo-otro