Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.

Policy learning in Europe : social policy and labour market reforms in 11 countries

This report compares policy learning processes in 11 European countries. Based on the country reports that were produced by the national teams of the INSPIRES project, this paper develops an argument that connects problem pressure and politicization to learning in different labor market innovations. In short, we argue that learning efforts are most likely to impact on policy change if there is a certain problem pressure that clearly necessitates political action. On the other hand, if problem pressure is very low, or so high that governments need to react immediately, chances are low that learning impacts on policy change. The second part of our argument contends that learning impacts on policy change especially if a problem is not very politicized, i.e. there are no main conflicts concerning a reform, because then, solutions are wound up in the search for a compromise. Our results confirm our first hypothesis regarding the connection between problem pressure and policy learning. Governments learn indeed up to a certain degree of problem pressure. However, once political action becomes really urgent, i.e. in anti-crisis policies, there is no time and room for learning. On the other hand, learning occurred independently from the politicization of problem. In fact, in countries that have a consensual political system, learning occurred before the decision on a reform, whereas in majoritarian systems, learning happened after the adoption of a policy during the process of implementation.

Universal Service Policies in Europe & Latam: Evidence on Bridging the Divide in Rural Areas

Broadband access is a key factor for economic and social development. However, providing broadband to rural areas is not attractive to private telecommunications operators due its low or zero investment return. To deal with broadband provision in rural areas, different governance systems based on private and public cooperation have appeared. This paper not only identifies and defines public and private cooperation models but also assesses their impact on overcoming the digital divide in rural areas. The results show that public ownership infrastructure under private management policy has had positive effects on reducing the broadband digital divide and being applied to areas with higher digital divide; subsides to private operators providers only positive effects on reducing broadband digital divide; but public infrastructure with public management programs did not. The results, obtained using quasi-experimental methods, suggest the importance of incentives and control mechanisms in broadband universal service provision plans.

The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe: An Ecological Time Series Study.

BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general, and whether any increase was greater during the 2009 pandemic than during other seasons. METHODS: We performed an ecologic time series analysis based on 26,967 pregnancies with nonchromosomal congenital anomaly conceived from January 2007 to March 2011, reported by 15 EUROCAT registries. Analysis was performed for EUROCAT-defined anomaly subgroups, divided by whether there was a prior hypothesis of association with influenza. Influenza season exposure was based on World Health Organization data. Prevalence rate ratios were calculated comparing pregnancies exposed to influenza season during the congenital anomaly-specific critical period for embryo-fetal development to nonexposed pregnancies. RESULTS: There was no evidence for an increased overall prevalence of congenital anomalies among pregnancies exposed to influenza season. We detected an increased prevalence of ventricular septal defect and tricuspid atresia and stenosis during pandemic influenza season 2009, but not during 2007-2011 influenza seasons. For congenital anomalies, where there was no prior hypothesis, the prevalence of tetralogy of Fallot was strongly reduced during influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not suggest an overall association of pandemic or seasonal influenza with congenital anomaly prevalence. One interpretation is that apparent influenza effects found in previous individual-based studies were confounded by or interacting with other risk factors. The associations of heart anomalies with pandemic influenza could be strain specific.

Epidemiology of hypospadias in Europe: a registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Hypospadias is a common congenital malformation. The prevalence of hypospadias has a large geographical variation, and recent studies have reported both increasing and decreasing temporal trends. It is unclear whether hypospadias prevalence is associated with maternal age. AIM: To analyze the prevalence and trends of total hypospadias, isolated hypospadias, hypospadias with multiple congenital anomalies, hypospadias with a known cause, and hypospadias severity subtypes in Europe over a 10-year period and to investigate whether maternal age is associated with hypospadias. METHODS: We included all children with hypospadias born from 2001 to 2010 who were registered in 23 EUROCAT registries. Information on the total number of births and maternal age distribution for the registry population was also provided. We analyzed the total prevalence of hypospadias and relative risks by maternal age. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2010, 10,929 hypospadias cases were registered in 5,871,855 births, yielding a total prevalence of 18.61 per 10,000 births. Prevalence varied considerably between different registries, probably due to differences in ascertainment of hypospadias cases. No significant temporal trends were observed with the exceptions of an increasing trend for anterior and posterior hypospadias and a decreasing trend for unspecified hypospadias. After adjusting for registry effects, maternal age was not significantly associated with hypospadias. CONCLUSIONS: Total hypospadias prevalence was stable in 23 EUROCAT registries from 2001 to 2010 and was not significantly influenced by maternal age.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.

Prevalence and clinical outcomes for patients with MET protein expression in patients with non-small cell lung cancer in Europe: Results from the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape Project.

Aim The reported prevalence of MET overexpression varies from 25-55% in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and clinical correlations are emerging slowly. In a well-defined NSCLC cohort of the Lungscape program, we explore the epidemiology, the natural history of IHC MET positivity and its association to OS, RFS and TTR. Methods Resected stage I-III NSCLC identified based on the quality of clinical data and FFPE tissue availability were assessed for MET expression using immunohistochemistry (IHC) on TMAs (CONFIRM anti total c-MET assay, clone SP44, Ventana BenchMark platform). All cases were analysed at participating pathology laboratories using the same protocol, after passing an external quality assurance program. MET positive status is defined as ≥ 50% of tumor cells staining with 2+ or 3+ intensity. Results A total of 2709 cases are included in the iBiobank and will be analysed. IHC MET expression is currently available for 1552 patients, with positive MET IHC staining in 380 cases [24.5%; IHC 3+ in 157 cases (41.3%) and 2+ in 223 cases (58.7%)]. The cohort of 1552 patients includes 48.2%, 44.7% and 4.4% cases of adenocarcinoma, squamous and large cell histologies, respectively. IHC MET status was independent of stage, age and smoking history. Significant differences in MET positivity were associated with gender (32% vs. 21% for female vs. male, p < 0.001), with performance status (25% vs. 18% for 0 vs. 1-3, p = 0.006), and histology (34%, 14% and 24% for adenocarcinoma, squamous and large cell carcinoma, p < 0.001). IHC MET positivity was independent of the IHC ALK status (p = 0.08). At last FU, 52% of patients were still alive, with a median FU of 4.8 yrs. No association of IHC MET was found with OS, RFS or TTR. Conclusions The preliminary results for this large multicentre European cohort describe a prevalence of MET overexpression that seems lower than previous observations in NSCLC, such as reported for the OAM4971g trial, suggesting potential biological differences between surgically resected and metastatic disease. Analysis for the full cohort is ongoing and results will be presented. Disclosure L. Bubendorf: Disclosures: Stock ownership: Roche Advisory boards: Roche, Pfizer Research support: Roche; K. Schulze: Full time employee of Roche; A. Das-Gupta: I am a full time employee of Roche. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Epilepsy priorities in Europe: A report of the ILAE-IBE Epilepsy Advocacy Europe Task Force.

The European Forum on Epilepsy Research (ERF2013), which took place in Dublin, Ireland, on May 26-29, 2013, was designed to appraise epilepsy research priorities in Europe through consultation with clinical and basic scientists as well as representatives of lay organizations and health care providers. The ultimate goal was to provide a platform to improve the lives of persons with epilepsy by influencing the political agenda of the EU. The Forum highlighted the epidemiologic, medical, and social importance of epilepsy in Europe, and addressed three separate but closely related concepts. First, possibilities were explored as to how the stigma and social burden associated with epilepsy could be reduced through targeted initiatives at EU national and regional levels. Second, ways to ensure optimal standards of care throughout Europe were specifically discussed. Finally, a need for further funding in epilepsy research within the European Horizon 2020 funding programme was communicated to politicians and policymakers participating to the forum. Research topics discussed specifically included (1) epilepsy in the developing brain; (2) novel targets for innovative diagnostics and treatment of epilepsy; (3) what is required for prevention and cure of epilepsy; and (4) epilepsy and comorbidities, with a special focus on aging and mental health. This report provides a summary of recommendations that emerged at ERF2013 about how to (1) strengthen epilepsy research, (2) reduce the treatment gap, and (3) reduce the burden and stigma associated with epilepsy. Half of the 6 million European citizens with epilepsy feel stigmatized and experience social exclusion, stressing the need for funding trans-European awareness campaigns and monitoring their impact on stigma, in line with the global commitment of the European Commission and with the recommendations made in the 2011 Written Declaration on Epilepsy. Epilepsy care has high rates of misdiagnosis and considerable variability in organization and quality across European countries, translating into huge societal cost (0.2% GDP) and stressing the need for cost-effective programs of harmonization and optimization of epilepsy care throughout Europe. There is currently no cure or prevention for epilepsy, and 30% of affected persons are not controlled by current treatments, stressing the need for pursuing research efforts in the field within Horizon 2020. Priorities should include (1) development of innovative biomarkers and therapeutic targets and strategies, from gene and cell-based therapies to technologically advanced surgical treatment; (2) addressing issues raised by pediatric and aging populations, as well as by specific etiologies and comorbidities such as traumatic brain injury (TBI) and cognitive dysfunction, toward more personalized medicine and prevention; and (3) translational studies and clinical trials built upon well-established European consortia.

Differences in pandemic influenza vaccination policies for pregnant women in Europe.

BACKGROUND: An important component of the policy to deal with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was to develop and implement vaccination. Since pregnant women were found to be at particular risk of severe morbidity and mortality, the World Health Organization and the European Centers for Disease Control advised vaccinating pregnant women, regardless of trimester of pregnancy. This study reports a survey of vaccination policies for pregnant women in European countries. METHODS: Questionnaires were sent to European competent authorities of 27 countries via the European Medicines Agency and to leaders of registries of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies in 21 countries. RESULTS: Replies were received for 24 out of 32 European countries of which 20 had an official pandemic vaccination policy. These 20 countries all had a policy targeting pregnant women. For two of the four countries without official pandemic vaccination policies, some vaccination of pregnant women took place. In 12 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate only second and third trimester pregnant women and in 8 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate pregnant women regardless of trimester of pregnancy. Seven different vaccines were used for pregnant women, of which four contained adjuvants. Few countries had mechanisms to monitor the number of vaccinations given specifically to pregnant women over time. Vaccination uptake varied. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in pandemic vaccination policy and practice might relate to variation in perception of vaccine efficacy and safety, operational issues related to vaccine manufacturing and procurement, and vaccination campaign systems. Increased monitoring of pandemic influenza vaccine coverage of pregnant women is recommended to enable evaluation of the vaccine safety in pregnancy and pandemic vaccination campaign effectiveness.

The economic cost of hospital malnutrition in Europe; a narrative review

Background: Malnutrition among hospitalized patients increases length of stay (LOS) and carries extra hospitalization costs. Objective: To review the impact of malnutrition on hospital LOS and costs in Europe. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar search. All articles from January 2004 until November 2014 were identified. Reference lists of relevant articles were also manually searched. Results: Ten studies on LOS and nine studies on costs were reviewed. The methods used to assess malnutrition and to calculate costs differed considerably between studies. Malnutrition led to an increased LOS ranging from 2.4 to 7.2 days. Among hospitalized patients, malnutrition led to an additional individual cost ranging between 1640 V and 5829 V. At the national level, the costs of malnutrition ranged between 32.8 million V and 1.2 billion V. Expressed as percentage of national health expenditures, the values ranged between 2.1% and 10%. Conclusions: In Europe, malnutrition leads to an increase in LOS and in hospital costs, both at the individual and the national level. Standardization of methods and results reported is needed to adequately compare results between countries. © 2015 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strong decline in the consumption of invertebrates by barn owls from 1860 to 2012 in Europe

Capsule The analysis of 616 papers about the diet of the European Barn Owl Tyto alba showed that 9678 invertebrates were captured out of 3.13 million prey items (0.31%). The consumption of invertebrates strongly decreased between 1860 and 2012. This further demonstrates that the Barn Owl diet changed to a large extent during the last 150 years.

Chronic postsurgical pain in Europe: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) is an important clinical problem. Prospective studies of the incidence, characteristics and risk factors of CPSP are needed. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of CPSP. DESIGN: A multicentre, prospective, observational trial. SETTING: Twenty-one hospitals in 11 European countries. PATIENTS: Three thousand one hundred and twenty patients undergoing surgery and enrolled in the European registry PAIN OUT. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pain-related outcome was evaluated on the first postoperative day (D1) using a standardised pain outcome questionnaire. Review at 6 and 12 months via e-mail or telephonic interview used the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) and the DN4 (Douleur Neuropathique four questions). Primary endpoint was the incidence of moderate to severe CPSP (numeric rating scale, NRS ≥3/10) at 12 months. RESULTS: For 1044 and 889 patients, complete data were available at 6 and 12 months. At 12 months, the incidence of moderate to severe CPSP was 11.8% (95% CI 9.7 to 13.9) and of severe pain (NRS ≥6) 2.2% (95% CI 1.2 to 3.3). Signs of neuropathic pain were recorded in 35.4% (95% CI 23.9 to 48.3) and 57.1% (95% CI 30.7 to 83.4) of patients with moderate and severe CPSP, respectively. Functional impairment (BPI) at 6 and 12 months increased with the severity of CPSP (P < 0.01) and presence of neuropathic characteristics (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified orthopaedic surgery, preoperative chronic pain and percentage of time in severe pain on D1 as risk factors. A 10% increase in percentage of time in severe pain was associated with a 30% increase of CPSP incidence at 12 months. CONCLUSION: The collection of data on CPSP was feasible within the European registry PAIN OUT. The incidence of moderate to severe CPSP at 12 months was 11.8%. Functional impairment was associated with CPSP severity and neuropathic characteristics. Risk factors for CPSP in the present study were chronic preoperative pain, orthopaedic surgery and percentage of time in severe pain on D1. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01467102.

Automobile Corporate Networks in Europe : Sectoral Specialization of Central and Eastern European Cities

The global automobile industry is made up of very large corporations and their various subsidiaries containing different functions that create complex locational structures. The networks formed by the 19 largest automobile transnational corporations constitute an automobile "oligopoly" representing more than 90% (OICA, 2012) of the world's production. Since the mid-1990s, Central and Eastern European cities have become attractive for transnational corporations and particularly for the production functions in the automobile sector. This leads to a crucial question. Are strategic functions (such as R&D) within these networks also located in Central and Eastern Europe, or is the region still manufacturing-oriented in the automobile industry? This paper focuses on the patterns and the main factors influencing the role of some of these new central and Eastern European cities that have become integrated in the global value chain of the automobile industry. By analysing the various locations of the specialized functions within the corporations, this study aims to extend the research on global value chains (Gereffi and Korzeniewicz; 1994, Sturgeon, 2000; Krätke, 2014). The spatial patterns of the various functions and the ownerships networks of the automobile industry are constructed in order to identify the cities supporting it. In particular, the way that national metropolises bring their national territories into the globalization of the automobile industry is addressed. For example, are there some specific advantages of capital cities compared to cities that have less integration in globalization terms?