A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

Learning to use information : informed learning in the undergraduate classroom

“Informed learning” is a pedagogy that focuses on learning subject content through engaging with academic or professional information practices. Adopting the position that more powerful learning is achieved where students are taught how to use information and subject content simultaneously, the research reported here investigated an informed learning lesson. Using phenomenographic methods, student’s experiences of the lesson were compared to what the teacher enacted in the classroom. Based on an analysis of student interviews using variation theory, three ways of experiencing the informed learning lesson emerged. Some students understood the lesson to be about learning to use information, i.e., researching and writing an academic paper, while others understood it as focusing on understanding both subject content and information use simultaneously. Although the results of this study are highly contextualized, the findings suggest criteria to consider when designing informed learning lessons.

Students' perceptions of teacher biases : experimental economics in schools

We put forward a new experimental economics design with monetary incentives to estimate students’ perceptions of grading discrimination. We use this design in a large field experiment which involved 1,200 British students in grade 8 classrooms across 29 schools. In this design, students are given an endowment they can invest on a task where payoff depends on performance. The task is a written verbal test which is graded non anonymously by their teacher, in a random half of the classrooms, and graded anonymously by an external examiner in the other random half of the classrooms. We find significant evidence that students’ choices reflect perceptions of biases in teachers’ grading practices. Our results show systematic gender interaction effects: male students invest less with female teachers than with male teachers while female students invest more with male teachers than with female teachers. Interestingly, female students’ perceptions are not in line with actual discrimination: Teachers tend to give better grades to students of their own gender. Results do not suggest that ethnicity and socioeconomic status play a role. .

The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction : evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

Screening in early childhood for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.

Approaches to creativity : how adolescents engage in the creative process

Despite growing recognition of creativity's importance for young people, the creativity of adolescents remains a neglected field of study. Hence, grounded theory research was conducted with 20 adolescents from two Australian schools regarding their self-reported experiences of creativity in diverse domains. Four approaches to the creative process – adaptation, transfer, synthesis, and genesis – emerged from the research. These approaches used by students across a range of domains contribute to the literature in two key ways: (a) explaining how adolescents engage in the creative process, theorised from adolescent creators’ self-reports of their experiences and (b) confirms hybrid theories that recognise that creativity has elements of both domain-generality and domain-specificity. The findings have educational implications for both students and teachers. For students, enhancing metacognitive awareness of their preferred approaches to creativity was reported as a valuable experience in itself, and might also enable adolescents to expand their creativity through experimenting with other ways of engaging in the creative process. For teachers, using these understandings to underpin their pedagogies can promote metacognitive awareness and experimentation, and also provide teachers with a framework for assessing students’ creative processes.

A retrospective cohort investigation of active range of motion within one week of open reduction and internal fixation of distal radius fractures

Distal radius fractures stabilized by open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) have become increasingly common. There is currently no consensus on the optimal time to commence range of motion (ROM) exercises post-ORIF. A retrospective cohort review was conducted over a five-year period to compare wrist and forearm range of motion outcomes and number of therapy sessions between patients who commenced active ROM exercises within the first seven days and from day eight onward following ORIF of distal radius fractures. One hundred and twenty-one patient cases were identified. Clinical data, active ROM at initial and discharge therapy assessments, fracture type, surgical approaches, and number of therapy sessions attended were recorded. One hundred and seven (88.4%) cases had complete datasets. The early active ROM group (n = 37) commenced ROM a mean (SD) of 4.27 (1.8) days post-ORIF. The comparator group (n = 70) commenced ROM exercises 24.3 (13.6) days post-ORIF. No significant differences were identified between groups in ROM at initial or discharge assessments, or therapy sessions attended. The results from this study indicate that patients who commenced active ROM exercises an average of 24 days after surgery achieved comparable ROM outcomes with similar number of therapy sessions to those who commenced ROM exercises within the first week.

The association between pterygium and conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence : The Norfolk Island Eye Study

Purpose: To investigate the association between conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF), a biomarker of ocular ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, and prevalent pterygium. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. All permanent residents aged ‡15 were invited to participate. Participants completed a sun exposure questionnaire and underwent autorefraction and slit lamp biomicroscope examination. Area of conjunctival UVAF (sum of temporal ⁄ nasal area in right and left eyes) was determined using computerized methods. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were used to estimate the associations with pterygia and UVAF, respectively. Results: Of 641 participants, 70 people (10.9%) had pterygium in one or both eyes, and prevalence was higher in males (15.0% versus 7.7%, p = 0.003). Significant independent associations with pterygium in any eye were UVAF (per 10 mm2) [odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16–1.28, p = 0.002], tanning skin phenotype (OR 2.17,1.20–3.92, p = 0.010) and spending more than three-quarters of the day outside (OR 2.22, 1.20–4.09, p = 0.011). Increasing quartile of UVAF was associated with increased risk of pterygium following adjustment of age, sex and time outdoors (pTrend = 0.002). Independent associations with increasing UVAF (per 10 mm2) were decreasing age, time outdoors, skin type and male gender (all p < 0.001). UVAF area correlated well with the duration of outdoor activity (pTrend < 0.001). Conclusion: Pterygium occurs in approximately one-tenth of Norfolk Islanders. Increasing conjunctival UVAF is associated with prevalent pterygia, confirming earlier epidemiological, laboratory and ray-tracing studies that pterygia are associated with UVR. Protection from the sun should be encouraged to reduce the prevalence of pterygium in the community.

Genotypes of the MTHFR C677T and MTRR A66G genes act independently to reduce migraine disability in response to vitamin supplementation

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a chronic disabling neurovascular condition that may in part be caused by endothelial and cerebrovascular disruption induced by hyperhomocysteinaemia. We have previously provided evidence indicating that reduction of homocysteine by vitamin supplementation can reduce the occurrence of migraine in women. The current study examined the genotypic effects of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and methionine synthase reductase (MTRR) gene variants on the occurrence of migraine in response to vitamin supplementation. METHODS: This was a 6-month randomized, double-blinded placebo-controlled trial of daily vitamin B supplementation (B(6), B(9) and B(12)) on reduction of homocysteine and of the occurrence of migraine in 206 female patients diagnosed with migraine with aura. RESULTS: Vitamin supplementation significantly reduced homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of headache in migraine (P=0.017) and high migraine disability (P=0.022) in migraineurs compared with the placebo effect (P>0.1). When the vitamin-treated group was stratified by genotype, the C allele carriers of the MTHFR C677T variant showed a higher reduction in homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of pain in migraine (P=0.01) and percentage of high migraine disability (P=0.009) compared with those with the TT genotypes. Similarly, the A allele carriers of the MTRR A66G variants showed a higher level of reduction in homocysteine levels (P<0.001), severity of pain in migraine (P=0.002) and percentage of high migraine disability (P=0.006) compared with those with the GG genotypes. Genotypic analysis for both genes combined indicated that the treatment effect modification of the MTRR variant was independent of the MTHFR variant. CONCLUSION: This provided further evidence that vitamin supplementation is effective in reducing migraine and also that both MTHFR and MTRR gene variants are acting independently to influence treatment response in female migraineurs.

The association between time spent outdoors and myopia using a novel biomarker of outdoor light exposure

PURPOSE: We sought to determine whether conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF), a biomarker of outdoor light exposure, is associated with myopia. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on Norfolk Island and recruited individuals aged ≥ 15 years. Participants completed a sun-exposure questionnaire and underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Conjunctival UVAF used a specially adapted electronic flash system fitted with UV-transmission filters (transmittance range 300-400 nm, peak 365 nm) as the excitation source. Temporal and nasal conjunctival UVAF was measured in both eyes using computerized photographic analysis with the sum referred to as "total UVAF." RESULTS: In 636 participants, prevalence of myopia decreased with an increasing quartile of total UVAF (P(trend) = 0.002). Median total UVAF was lower in subjects with myopia (spherical equivalent [SE] ≤ -1.0 diopter [D]) than participants without myopia: 16.6 mm(2) versus 28.6 mm(2), P = 0.001. In the multivariable model that adjusted for age, sex, smoking, cataract, height and weight, UVAF was independently associated with myopia (SE ≤ -1.0 D): odds ratio (OR) for total UVAF (per 10 mm(2)) was 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 0.94, P = 0.007. UVAF was also significantly associated with myopia when analysis was restricted to subjects <50 years, and in moderate-severe myopia (SE ≤ -3.0 D). Prevalence of myopia decreased with increasing time outdoors (P(trend) = 0.03), but time outdoors was not associated with myopia on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Study authors identified a protective association between increasing UVAF and myopia. The protective association of higher UVAF against myopia was stronger than that of increased levels of time spent outdoors as measured by this study's questionnaire. Future studies should investigate the association between UVAF and incident myopia, and its relationship to myopic progression.

Analysis of the MTHFR C677T variant with migraine phenotypes

Background The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene variant C677T has been implicated as a genetic risk factor in migraine susceptibility, particularly in Migraine with Aura. Migraine, with and without aura (MA and MO) have many diagnostic characteristics in common. It is postulated that migraine symptomatic characteristics might themselves be influenced by MTHFR. Here we analysed the clinical profile, migraine symptoms, triggers and treatments of 267 migraineurs previously genotyped for the MTHFR C677T variant. The chi-square test was used to analyse all potential relationships between genotype and migraine clinical variables. Regression analyses were performed to assess the association of C677T with all migraine clinical variables after adjusting for gender. Findings The homozygous TT genotype was significantly associated with MA (P < 0.0001) and unilateral head pain (P = 0.002). While the CT genotype was significantly associated with physical activity discomfort (P < 0.001) and stress as a migraine trigger (P = 0.002). Females with the TT genotype were significantly associated with unilateral head pain (P < 0.001) and females with the CT genotype were significantly associated with nausea (P < 0.001), osmophobia (P = 0.002), and the use of natural remedy for migraine treatment (P = 0.003). Conversely, male migraineurs with the TT genotype experienced higher incidences of bilateral head pain (63% vs 34%) and were less likely to use a natural remedy as a migraine treatment compared to female migraineurs (5% vs 20%). Conclusions MTHFR genotype is associated with specific clinical variables of migraine including unilateral head pain, physical activity discomfort and stress.

Lysine residues of IGF-I are substrates for transglutaminases and modulate downstream IGF-I signalling

Numerous studies have reported associations between IGF-I and other extra cellular matrix (ECM) proteins, including fibronectin (FN), integrins, IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) and through IGFBPs, with vitronectin (VN). Nevertheless, the precise nature and mechanisms of these interactions are still being characterised. In this paper, we discuss transglutaminases (TGases) as a constituent of the ECM and provide evidence for the first time that IGF-I is a lysine (K)-donor substrate to TGases. When IGF-I was incubated with an alpha-2 plasmin inhibitor-derived Q peptide in the presence of tissue transglutaminase (TG2), an IGF-I:Q peptide cross-linked species was detected using Western immunoblotting and confirmed by mass spectrometry. Similar findings were observed in the presence of Factor XIIIa (FXIIIa) TGase. To identify the precise location of this K-donor TGase site/s on IGF-I, all the three IGF-I K-sites, individually and collectively (K27, K65 and K68), were substituted to arginine (R) using site-directed mutagenesis. Incubation of these K→R IGF-I analogues with Q peptide in the presence of TG2 or FXIIIa resulted in the absence of cross-linking in IGF-I analogues bearing arginine substitution at site 68. This established that K68 within the IGF-I D-domain was the principal K-donor site to TGases. We further annotated the functional significance of these K→R IGF-I analogues on IGF-I mediated actions. IGF-I analogues with K→R substitution within the D-domain at K65 and K68 hindered migration of MCF-7 breast carcinoma cells and correspondingly reduced PI3-K/AKT activation. Therefore, this study also provides first insights into a possible functional role of the previously uncharacterised IGF-I D-domain.

Flexural and shear bond characteristics of thin layer polymer cement mortared concrete masonry

This paper presents an experimental investigation of the flexural and shear bond characteristics of thin layer polymer cement mortared concrete masonry. It is well known that the bond characteristics of masonry depend upon the mortar type, the techniques of dispersion of mortar and the surface texture of concrete blocks; there exists an abundance of literature on the conventional 10 mm thick cement mortared masonry bond; however, 1-4 mm thick polymer cement mortared masonry bond is not yet well researched. This paper reports a study on the examination of the effect of mortar compositions, dispersion methods and unit surface textures to the flexural and shear bond characteristics of thin layer mortared concrete masonry. A non-contact digital image correlation method was adopted for the measurement of strains at the unit-mortar interface in this research. All mortar joints have been carefully prepared to ensure achievement of the desired thin layer mortar thickness on average. The results exhibit that the bond strength of thin mortar layered concrete masonry with polymer cement mortar is higher than that of the conventional masonry; moreover the unit surface texture and the mortar dispersion methods are found to have significant influence on the flexural and shear bond characteristics. From the experimental results, a correlation between the flexural and the shear bond strengths has been determined and is presented in this paper.

Association of the NuMA region on chromosome 11q13 with breast cancer susceptibility

The development of breast cancer is a complex process that involves multiple genes at many stages, from initial cell cycle dysregulation to disease progression. To identify genetic variations that influence this process, we conducted a large-scale association study using a collection of German cases and controls and >25,000 SNPs located within 16,000 genes. One of the loci identified was located on chromosome 11q13 [odds ratio (OR)=1.85, P=0.017]. The initial association was subsequently tested in two independent breast cancer collections. In both sample sets, the frequency of the susceptibility allele was increased in the cases (OR=1.6, P=0.01). The susceptibility allele was also associated with an increase in cancer family history (P=0.1). Fine mapping showed that the region of association extends approximately 300 kb and spans several genes, including the gene encoding the nuclear mitotic apparatus protein (NuMA). A nonsynonymous SNP (A794G) in NuMA was identified that showed a stronger association with breast cancer risk than the initial marker SNP (OR=2.8, P=0.005 initial sample; OR=2.1, P=0.002 combined). NuMA is a cell cycle-related protein essential for normal mitosis that is degraded in early apoptosis. NuMA-retinoic acid receptor alpha fusion proteins have been described in acute promyelocytic leukemia. Although the potential functional relevance of the A794G variation requires further biological validation, we conclude that variations in the NuMA gene are likely responsible for the observed increased breast cancer risk.

Genetic variants of angiotensin converting enzyme and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase may act in combination to increase migraine susceptibility

Migraine, with and without aura (MA and MO), is a prevalent and complex neurovascular disorder that is likely to be influenced by multiple genes some of which may be capable of causing vascular changes leading to disease onset. This study was conducted to determine whether the ACE I/D gene variant is involved in migraine risk and whether this variant might act in combination with the previously implicated MTHFR C677T genetic variant in 270 migraine cases and 270 matched controls. Statistical analysis of the ACE I/D variant indicated no significant difference in allele or genotype frequencies (P > 0.05). However, grouping of genotypes showed a modest, yet significant, over-representation of the DD/ID genotype in the migraine group (88%) compared to controls (81%) (OR of 1.64, 95% CI: 1.00–2.69, P = 0.048). Multivariate analysis, including genotype data for the MTHFR C677T, provided evidence that the MTHFR (TT) and ACE (ID/DD) genotypes act in combination to increase migraine susceptibility (OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.15–4.16, P = 0.018). This effect was greatest for the MA subtype where the genotype combination corresponded to an OR of 2.89 (95% CI:1.47–5.72, P = 0.002). In Caucasians, the ACE D allele confers a weak independent risk to migraine susceptibility and also appears to act in combination with the C677T variant in the MTHFR gene to confer a stronger influence on the disease.