An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of the web to provide learning support for a large metabolism and nutrition class

To support student learning in a large Metabolism and Nutrition class, we have introduced a web-based package, using a commercially available program, WebCT. The package was developed at a minimal cost and with limited resources. In addition to downloadable (PDF) versions of lecture Powerpoint presentations, tutorial outlines and a practical class exercise, web-based self-directed learning exercises were included to reinforce and extend lecture material in an active learning environment. The web-site also contained a variety of formative and summative assessment tasks that examined both factual recall and higher order thinking Detailed course information, timetables and a bulletin board were also readily accessible. Student usage of the site was generally high, but varied widely between individual students. Students who achieved a high overall score for the course completed on average three times as many formative assessment items and achieved a higher score for all tests than students who did poorly. Student feedback about the site was very positive with the majority of students reporting that the course material and assessment items that were available were useful to their learning. Administration of the course was also facilitated. (C) 2001 IUBMB. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived constraints and social support for active leisure among mothers with young children

Evidence suggests that women who are mothers of young children have lower levels of physical activity than women of similar age who do not have children (Brown, Lee, Mishra, & Bauman, 2000). The purposes of this study were to explore the factors that constrain mothers of young children from being more physically active, and the relationship between physical activity and levels of social support available to the women. The empirical basis for this examination was provided through a study of activity levels and barriers to physical activity experienced by a sample of 543 mothers of young children from differing socioeconomic backgrounds. The data indicate that: (a) more than two-thirds of the mothers were inadequately active in their leisure time for health benefit; (b) while the vast majority of mothers expressed a desire to be more active, they were inhibited in their ability to act out their leisure preferences by a combination of structural (e.g., lack of time, money, energy) and ideological influences (e.g., sense of commitment to others); (c) access to social support (from partners, family, and friends) was seen to place some women in a better position than others to negotiate constraints that inhibit leisure participation; and (d) within groups of varying socioeconomic status (SES) there was wide variation in the amount of time spent each week in active leisure.

Ethanol-related adaptive changes and physical dependence in rats after exposure to ethanol

Adaptive changes that occur after chronic exposure to ethanol are an important component in the development of physical dependence. We have focused our research on ethanol-induced changes in the expression of several genes that may be important in adaptation. In this article, we describe adaptive changes at the level of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, in the protein expression and activity of the Egr transcription factors, and in the expression of a novel gene of unknown function. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of time delays in adaptive phase measurements

It is not possible to make measurements of the phase of an optical mode using linear optics without introducing an extra phase uncertainty. This extra phase variance is quite large for heterodyne measurements, however it is possible to reduce it to the theoretical limit of log (n) over bar (4 (n) over bar (2)) using adaptive measurements. These measurements are quite sensitive to experimental inaccuracies, especially time delays and inefficient detectors. Here it is shown that the minimum introduced phase variance when there is a time delay of tau is tau/(8 (n) over bar). This result is verified numerically, showing that the phase variance introduced approaches this limit for most of the adaptive schemes using the best final phase estimate. The main exception is the adaptive mark II scheme with simplified feedback, which is extremely sensitive to time delays. The extra phase variance due to time delays is considered for the mark I case with simplified feedback, verifying the tau /2 result obtained by Wiseman and Killip both by a more rigorous analytic technique and numerically.

A decision support process to compare Riparian revegetation options in Scheu Creek catchment in North Queensland

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups. Multicriteria analysis provides an appropriate tool to evaluate alternative riparian revegetation options, and to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. This paper discusses an application of multicriteria analysis in an evaluation of riparian revegetation policy options for Scheu Creek, a small sub-catchment in the Johnstone River catchment in north Queensland, Australia. Clear differences are found in the rankings of revegetation options for different stakeholder groups with respect to environmental, social and economic impacts. Implementation of a revegetation option will involve considerable cost for landholders for the benefits of society. Queensland legislation does not provide a means to require farmers to implement riparian revegetation, hence the need for subsidies, tau incentives and moral suasion. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Wildlife-based tourism & increased support for nature conservation financially and otherwise: evidence from sea-turtle ecotourism at Mon Repos

The arguments of most conservationists supporting ecotourism have been based on the view that it is environmentally friendly as a resource-use and that receipts from it can counter demands to use the natural resources involved for more extractive economic purposes. But wildlife-based ecotourism can also have positive impacts in itself on the willingness of tourists to pay for wildlife conservation, strengthen the pro-conservation attitudes of tourists, and foster personal actions by them that contribute to wildlife conservation. These aspects are explored in this article on the basis of a survey of tourists visiting Mon Repos Beach near Bundaberg, Queensland, for the purpose of watching marine turtles. The results enable several of the conservation impacts of this experience on tourists to be quantified, and highlight important relationships between specific socio-economic variables and the willingness of tourists to pay for the protection of sea turtles. Furthermore, it is shown that the on-site experiences of ecotourists have positive impacts on the willingness of tourists to pay for the conservation of wildlife, and that willingness to pay is sensitive to whether or not wildlife is seen. It is suggested that in situ ecotourism is likely to be a more powerful force for fostering pro-conservation attitudes and actions among visitors than ex situ wildlife-based tourism in aquaria and zoos.

Postural control of the trunk in response to lateral support surface translations during trunk movement and loading

The postural response to translation of the support surface may be influenced by the performance of an ongoing voluntary task. This study was designed to test this proposal by applying lateral perturbations while subjects handled a load in the frontal plane. Measurements were made of medio-lateral displacement of the centre of pressure, angular displacement of the trunk and thigh in the frontal plane and intra-abdominal pressure. Subjects were translated randomly to the left and right in a variety of conditions that involved standing either quietly or with a 5 kg load in their left hand, which they were required either to hold statically or to lift or lower. The results indicate that when the perturbation occurred towards the loaded left side the subjects were able to return their centre of pressure, trunk and thigh rapidly and accurately to the initial position. However, when the perturbation occurred towards the right (away from the load) this correction was delayed and associated with multiple changes in direction of movement, suggesting decreased efficiency of the postural response. This reduced efficiency can be explained by a conflict between the motor commands for the ongoing voluntary task and the postural response, and/or by the mechanical effect of the asymmetrical addition of load to the trunk.

Child-Pugh class, nutritional indicators and early liver transplant outcomes

Background/Aims: Patients with chronic liver disease undergoing liver transplantation have reduced body fat and muscle mass. The extent to which nutritional indicators and Child-Pugh class are predictive of postoperative outcome in adults is unclear. The aims of this study were to determine in adult patients undergoing transplant 1) the influence of preoperative Child-Pugh class and nutritional indicators on early transplant outcomes and one-year survival, 2) the relationship between nutritional indicators and Child-Pugh class and disease type. This study included 80 patients (1990-1994). Methodology: The nutritional indicators utilized were grip strength, triceps skinfold thickness and uncorrected mid-arm muscle area. Measured outcomes were ventilator time, intensive care stay, postoperative hospital stay and one-year survival. Results: Early morbidity was determined in survivors. Child-Pugh class C patients required longer ventilation and spent more time in the intensive care unit than Child-Pugh classes A and B. No significant relationships were found length of hospital stay. Relationships between the nutritional indicators (when controlled for Child-Pugh class) and early morbidity could not be determined due;to insufficient data. No relationship was established between one-year survival and Child-Pugh class or the nutritional indicators. Grip strength and mid-arm muscle area were lower in the patients in Child-Pugh:classes B and C. Parenchymal liver disease was associated with lower grip strength and mid-arm muscle area when compared to cholestatic disease. Conclusions: Child-Pugh class C is associated with greater early postoperative morbidity. Advanced Child-Pugh class is also associated with diminished muscle status and parenchymal disease.

The impact of nutrition support on body composition in cancer outpatients receiving radiotherapy

This study investigated the change in body composition in 36 cancer outpatients receiving radiotherapy to the head and neck area (mean age: 63 ± 15 years) randomised to receive either nutrition intervention (NI; n=15) or usual care (UC; n=21). Body weight and composition were measured at the commencement of radiotherapy and 3 months later. The UC group lost significantly more weight; mean decrease = 4.3 kg, than the NI group: mean decrease = 1.1 kg (t(30)=-2.5, p=0.019). Fat-free mass loss was significantly higher in the UC group with a mean loss of 2.2 kg versus 0.3 kg in the NI group (t(30)=- 2.3, p=0.029). Body composition as measured by foot-to-foot bioelectrical impedance analysis provides more information than weight alone and can allow for tailoring of NI.

Quantifying stresses and support requirements in the undercut and production level drifts of block and panel caving mines

A numerical modelling strategy has been developed in order to quantify the magnitude of induced stresses at the boundaries of production level and undercut level drifts for various in situ stress environments and undercut scenarios. The results of the stress modelling were in line with qualitative experiential guidelines and a limited number of induced stress measurements documented from caving sites. A number of stress charts were developed which quantify the maximum boundary stresses in drift roofs for varying in situ stress regimes, depths and undercut scenarios. This enabled many of the experiential guidelines to be quantified and bounded. A limited number of case histories of support and support performance in cave mine drifts were compared to support recommendations using the NGI classification system, The stress charts were used to estimate the Stress Reduction Factor for this system. The back-analyses suggested that the NGI classification system might be able to give preliminary estimates of support requirements in caving mines with modifications relating to rock bolt length and the support of production level intersections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A decision support system for selecting sanitation systems in developing countries

Due to the socio-economic inhomogeneity of communities in developing countries, the selection of sanitation systems is a complex task. To assist planners and communities in assessing the suitability of alternatives, the decision support system SANEX™ was developed. SANEX™ evaluates alternatives in two steps. First, Conjunctive Elimination, based on 20 mainly technical criteria, is used to screen feasible alternatives. Subsequently, a model derived from Multiattribute Utility Technique (MAUT) uses technical, socio-cultural and institutional criteria to compare the remaining alternatives with regard to their implementability and sustainability. This paper presents the SANEX™ algorithm, examples of its application in practice, and results obtained from field testing.