Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs

We consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions, using Bayesian vintage-based vector autoregressions. The prior incorporates the belief that, after the first few data releases, subsequent ones are likely to consist of revisions that are largely unpredictable. The Bayesian approach allows the joint modelling of the data revisions of more than one variable, while keeping the concomitant increase in parameter estimation uncertainty manageable. Our model provides markedly more accurate forecasts of post-revision values of inflation than do other models in the literature.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry–climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models’ water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

Cannabinoids and epilepsy

Cannabis has been used for centuries to treat seizures. Recent anecdotal reports, accumulating animal model data, and mechanistic insights have raised interest in cannabis-based antiepileptic therapies. In this study, we review current understanding of the endocannabinoid system, characterize the pro- and anticonvulsive effects of cannabinoids [e.g., Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabidiol (CBD)], and high-light scientific evidence from pre-clinical and clinical trials of cannabinoids in epilepsy. These studies suggest that CBD avoids the psychoactive effects of the endocannabinoid system to provide a well-tolerated, promising therapeutic for the treatment of seizures, while whole-plant cannabis can both contribute to and reduce seizures. Finally, we discuss results from a new multicenter, open-label study using CBD in a population with treatment-resistant epilepsy. In all, we seek to evaluate our current understanding of cannabinoids in epilepsy and guide future basic science and clinical studies.

Structure and electrical transport properties of the ordered skutterudites MGe1.5S1.5 (M = Co, Rh, Ir)

High-resolution powder neutron diffraction data collected for the skutterudites MGe1.5S1.5 (M=Co, Rh, Ir) reveal that these materials adopt an ordered skutterudite structure (space group R3¯), in which the anions are ordered in layers perpendicular to the [111] direction. In this ordered structure, the anions form two-crystallographically distinct four-membered rings, with stoichiometry Ge2S2, in which the Ge and S atoms are trans to each other. The transport properties of these materials, which are p-type semiconductors, are discussed in the light of the structural results. The effect of iron substitution in CoGe1.5S1.5 has been investigated. While doping of CoGe1.5S1.5 has a marked effect on both the electrical resistivity and the Seebeck coefficient, these ternary skutterudites exhibit significantly higher electrical resistivities than their binary counterparts.

Asymmetric oxidation of vinyl- and ethynyl terthiophene ligands in triruthenium complexes

A series of ruthenium(II) complexes [{RuCl(CO)(PMe3)3(–CHvCH–)}nX], 1a–1c (1a: n = 3, X = 3,3’’- dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’-terthiophene; 1b: n = 2, X = 2,2’-bithiophene; 1c: n = 2, X = 2,3-bis(3-methylthiophen- 2-yl)benzothiophene) and [{Cp*(dppe)2Ru(–CuC–)}3X], 1d (X = 3,3’’-dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’- terthiophene), were prepared and characterized by 1H, 13C and 31P NMR. Their redox, spectroscopic and bonding properties were studied with a range of spectro-electrochemical methods in combination with density functional theory calculations. The first two anodic steps observed for 1a and 1d are largely localized on the lateral frameworks of the molecular triangle, the direct conjugation between them being precluded due to the photostable open form of the dithienyl ethene moiety. The third anodic step is then mainly localized on the centerpiece of the triangular structure, affecting both bithiophene laterals. The experimental IR and UV-vis-NIR spectroelectrochemical data and, largely, also DFT calculations account for this explanation, being further supported by direct comparison with the anodic behavior of reference diruthenium complexes 1b and 1c.

Osteoconductivity of modified fluorcanasite glass-ceramics for bone tissue augmentation and repair

Modified fluorcanasite glasses were fabricated by either altering the molar ratios of Na(2)O and CaO or by adding P(2)O(5) to the parent stoichiometric glass compositions. Glasses were converted to glass-ceramics by a controlled two-stage heat treatment process. Rods (2 mm x 4 mm) were produced using the conventional lost-wax casting technique. Osteoconductive 45S5 bioglass was used as a reference material. Biocompatibility and osteoconductivity were investigated by implantation into healing defects (2 mm) in the midshaft of rabbit femora. Tissue response was investigated using conventional histology and scanning electron microscopy. Histological and histomorphometric evaluation of specimens after 12 weeks implantation showed significantly more bone contact with the surface of 45S5 bioglass implants when compared with other test materials. When the bone contact for each material was compared between experimental time points, the Glass-Ceramic 2 (CaO rich) group showed significant difference (p = 0.027) at 4 weeks, but no direct contact at 12 weeks. Histology and backscattered electron photomicrographs showed that modified fluorcanasite glass-ceramic implants had greater osteoconductivity than the parent stoichiometric composition. Of the new materials, fluorcanasite glass-ceramic implants modified by the addition of P(2)O(5) showed the greatest stimulation of new mineralized bone tissue formation adjacent to the implants after 4 and 12 weeks implantation. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 94A: 760-768, 2010

TRPV1 receptors are involved in protein nitration and Muller cell reaction in the acutely axotomized rat retina

We report here the protein expression of TRPV1 receptor in axotomized rat retinas and its possible participation in mechanisms involved in retinal ganglion cell (RGC) death. Adult rats were subjected to unilateral, intraorbital axotomy of the optic nerve, and the retinal tissue was removed for further processing. TRPV1 total protein expression decreased progressively after optic nerve transection, reaching 66.2% of control values 21 days after axotomy. The number of cells labeled for TRPV1 in the remnant GCL decreased after 21 days post-lesion (to 63%). Fluoro-jade B staining demonstrated that the activation of TRPV1 in acutely-lesioned eyes elicited more intense neuronal degeneration in the GCL and in the inner nuclear layer than in sham-operated retinas. A single intraocular injection of capsazepine (100 mu M), a TRPV1 antagonist, 5 days after optic nerve lesion, decreased the number of GFAP-expressing Muller cells (72.5% of control values) and also decreased protein nitration in the retinal vitreal margin (75.7% of control values), but did not affect lipid peroxidation. Furthermore, retinal explants were treated with capsaicin (100 mu M), and remarkable protein nitration was then present, which was reduced by blockers of the constitutive and inducible nitric oxide synthases (7-NI and aminoguanidine, respectively). TRPV1 activation also increased GFAP expression, which was reverted by both TRPV1 antagonism with capsazepine and by 7-NI and aminoguanidine. Given that Muller cells do not express TRPV1, we suppose that the increased GFAP expression in these cells might be elicited by TRPV1 activation and by its indirect effect upon nitric oxide overproduction and peroxynitrite formation. We incubated Fluorogold pre-labeled retinal explants in the presence of capsazepine (1 mu M) during 48 h. The numbers of surviving RGCs stained with fluorogold and the numbers of apoptotic cells in the GCL detected with TUNEL were similar in lesioned and control retinas. We conclude that TRPV1 receptor expression decreased after optic nerve injury due to death of TRPV1-containing cells. Furthermore, these data indicate that TRPV1 might be involved in intrinsic protein nitration and Muller cell reaction observed after optic nerve injury. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classical and hologram QSAR studies on a series of inhibitors of trypanosomatid Glyceraldehyde-3-Phosphate Dehydrogenase

Leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis are major causes of morbidity and mortality in both tropical and subtropical regions of the world. The current available drugs are limited, ineffective, and require long treatment regimens. Due to the high dependence of trypanosomatids on glycolysis as a source of energy, some glycolytic enzymes have been identified as attractive targets for drug design. In the present work, classical Two-Dimensional Quantitative Structure -Activity Relationships (2D QSAR) and Hologram QSAR (HQSAR) studies were performed on a series of adenosine derivatives as inhibitors of Leishmania mexicana Glyceraldehyde-3-Phosphate Dehydrogenase (LmGAPDH). Significant correlation coefficients (classical QSAR, r(2)=0.83 and q(2) =0.81; HQSAR, r(2)=0.91 and q(2) =0.86) were obtained for the 56 training set compounds, indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The models were then externally validated using a test set of 14 structurally related compounds and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (classical QSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.94; HQSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.92).

Cathepsin X cleaves the beta 2 cytoplasmic tail of LFA-1 inducing the intermediate affinity form of LFA-1 and alpha-actinin-1 binding

The motility of T cells depends on the dynamic spatial regulation of integrin-mediated adhesion and de-adhesion. Cathepsin X, a cysteine protease, has been shown to regulate T-cell migration by interaction with lymphocyte function associated antigen-1 (LFA-1). LFA-1 adhesion to the ICAM-1 is controlled by the association of actin-binding proteins with the cytoplasmic tail of the beta(2) chain of LFA-1. Cleavage by cathepsin X of the amino acid residues S(769), E(768) and A(767) from the C-terminal of the beta(2) cytoplasmic tail of LFA-1 is shown to promote binding of the actin-binding protein alpha-actinin-1. Furthermore, cathepsin X overexpression reduced LFA-1 clustering and induced an intermediate affinity LFA-1 conformation that is known to associate with a-actinin-1. increased levels of intermediate affinity LFA-1 resulted in augmented cell spreading due to reduced attachment of T cells to the ICAM-1-coated surface. Gradual cleavage of LFA-1 by cathepsin X enables the transition between intermediate and high affinity LFA-1, an event that is crucial for effective T-cell migration.

Automatic camera control in virtual environments augmented using multiple sparse videos

Automated virtual camera control has been widely used in animation and interactive virtual environments. We have developed a multiple sparse camera based free view video system prototype that allows users to control the position and orientation of a virtual camera, enabling the observation of a real scene in three dimensions (3D) from any desired viewpoint. Automatic camera control can be activated to follow selected objects by the user. Our method combines a simple geometric model of the scene composed of planes (virtual environment), augmented with visual information from the cameras and pre-computed tracking information of moving targets to generate novel perspective corrected 3D views of the virtual camera and moving objects. To achieve real-time rendering performance, view-dependent textured mapped billboards are used to render the moving objects at their correct locations and foreground masks are used to remove the moving objects from the projected video streams. The current prototype runs on a PC with a common graphics card and can generate virtual 2D views from three cameras of resolution 768 x 576 with several moving objects at about 11 fps. (C)2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants and effects of central bank independence reforms

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.

Pedagogical Methods in Web-Based Language Teaching

This paper presents a research project that is being conducted at Dalarna University in Sweden. The aim is to study the following: 1) The quality of online language education compared with that of campus education, and 2) Advantages and disadvantages of online language education and how the disadvantages might be overcome. The project consists of two parts: pedagogical methods in online language education from the teachers’ point of view and from the students’ point of view. The first part was conducted in 2012 and various characteristics (benefits and difficulties) of online language education were identified. Flexibility and wider opportunities were general benefits, while lack of physical co-presence, difficulty in having lively debates/discussions, and high dropout rates were among the problems. The second part of the project (being conducted in 2014) aims to investigate how students experience online language learning. The goal is to explore alignments and misalignments between teachers’ perspectives and students’ perspectives, and to develop methods to enhance the quality of online education.