Robust nonlinear model identification methods using forward regression

In this correspondence new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness via combined parameter regularization and new robust structural selective criteria. In parallel to parameter regularization, we use two classes of robust model selection criteria based on either experimental design criteria that optimizes model adequacy, or the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic that optimizes model generalization capability, respectively. Three robust identification algorithms are introduced, i.e., combined A- and D-optimality with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm, respectively; and combined PRESS statistic with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalization scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularized orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms.

A robust nonlinear identification algorithm using PRESS statistic and forward regression

This letter introduces a new robust nonlinear identification algorithm using the Predicted REsidual Sums of Squares (PRESS) statistic and for-ward regression. The major contribution is to compute the PRESS statistic within a framework of a forward orthogonalization process and hence construct a model with a good generalization property. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation.

Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

A forward constrained selection algorithm for probabilistic neural network

A new probabilistic neural network (PNN) learning algorithm based on forward constrained selection (PNN-FCS) is proposed. An incremental learning scheme is adopted such that at each step, new neurons, one for each class, are selected from the training samples arid the weights of the neurons are estimated so as to minimize the overall misclassification error rate. In this manner, only the most significant training samples are used as the neurons. It is shown by simulation that the resultant networks of PNN-FCS have good classification performance compared to other types of classifiers, but much smaller model sizes than conventional PNN.

Particle swarm optimization aided orthogonal forward regression for unified data modeling

We propose a unified data modeling approach that is equally applicable to supervised regression and classification applications, as well as to unsupervised probability density function estimation. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) aided orthogonal forward regression (OFR) algorithm based on leave-one-out (LOO) criteria is developed to construct parsimonious radial basis function (RBF) networks with tunable nodes. Each stage of the construction process determines the center vector and diagonal covariance matrix of one RBF node by minimizing the LOO statistics. For regression applications, the LOO criterion is chosen to be the LOO mean square error, while the LOO misclassification rate is adopted in two-class classification applications. By adopting the Parzen window estimate as the desired response, the unsupervised density estimation problem is transformed into a constrained regression problem. This PSO aided OFR algorithm for tunable-node RBF networks is capable of constructing very parsimonious RBF models that generalize well, and our analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm is computationally even simpler than the efficient regularization assisted orthogonal least square algorithm based on LOO criteria for selecting fixed-node RBF models. Another significant advantage of the proposed learning procedure is that it does not have learning hyperparameters that have to be tuned using costly cross validation. The effectiveness of the proposed PSO aided OFR construction procedure is illustrated using several examples taken from regression and classification, as well as density estimation applications.

Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately.

Radial basis function classifier construction using particle swarm optimisation aided orthogonal forward regression

We develop a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) aided orthogonal forward regression (OFR) approach for constructing radial basis function (RBF) classifiers with tunable nodes. At each stage of the OFR construction process, the centre vector and diagonal covariance matrix of one RBF node is determined efficiently by minimising the leave-one-out (LOO) misclassification rate (MR) using a PSO algorithm. Compared with the state-of-the-art regularisation assisted orthogonal least square algorithm based on the LOO MR for selecting fixednode RBF classifiers, the proposed PSO aided OFR algorithm for constructing tunable-node RBF classifiers offers significant advantages in terms of better generalisation performance and smaller model size as well as imposes lower computational complexity in classifier construction process. Moreover, the proposed algorithm does not have any hyperparameter that requires costly tuning based on cross validation.

Proposing a way forward: a review of standardisation in the use of age categories and ageing techniques in osteological analysis (2004 to 2009)

This study assesses the current state of adult skeletal age-at-death estimation in biological anthropology through analysis of data published in recent research articles from three major anthropological and archaeological journals (2004–2009). The most commonly used adult ageing methods, age of ‘adulthood’, age ranges and the maximum age reported for ‘mature’ adults were compared. The results showed a wide range of variability in the age at which individuals were determined to be adult (from 14 to 25 years), uneven age ranges, a lack of standardisation in the use of descriptive age categories and the inappropriate application of some ageing methods for the sample being examined. Such discrepancies make comparisons between skeletal samples difficult, while the inappropriate use of some techniques make the resultant age estimations unreliable. At a time when national and even global comparisons of past health are becoming prominent, standardisation in the terminology and age categories used to define adults within each sample is fundamental. It is hoped that this research will prompt discussions in the osteological community (both nationally and internationally) about what defines an ‘adult’, how to standardise the age ranges that we use and how individuals should be assigned to each age category. Skeletal markers have been proposed to help physically identify ‘adult’ individuals.

Gene expression profiling of human hibernating myocardium: Increased expression of B-type natriuretic peptide and proenkephalin in hypocontractile vs normally-contracting regions of the heart

A greater understanding of the molecular basis of hibernating myocardium may assist in identifying those patients who would most benefit from revascularization. Paired heart biopsies were taken from hypocontractile and normally-contracting myocardium (identified by cardiovascular magnetic resonance) from 6 patients with chronic stable angina scheduled for bypass grafting. Gene expression profiles of hypocontractile and normally-contracting samples were compared using Affymetrix microarrays. The data for patients with confirmed hibernating myocardium were analysed separately and a different, though overlapping, set (up to 380) of genes was identified which may constitute a molecular fingerprint for hibernating myocardium. The expression of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was increased in hypocontractile relative to normally-contracting myocardium. The expression of BNP correlated most closely with the expression of proenkephalin and follistatin 3, which may constitute additional heart failure markers. Our data illustrate differential gene expression in hypocontractile and/hibernating myocardium relative to normally-contracting myocardium within individual human hearts. Changes in expression of these genes, including increased relative expression of natriuretic and other factors, may constitute a molecular signature for hypocontractile and/or hibernating myocardium.

Moving feedback forward: theory to practice

There is substantial research interest in tutor feedback and students’ perception and use of such feedback. This paper considers some of the major issues raised in relation to tutor feedback and student learning. We explore some of the current feedback drivers, most notably the need for feedback to move away from simply a monologue from a tutor to a student to a valuable tutor–student dialogue. In relation to moving feedback forward the notions of self regulation, dialogue and social learning are explored and then considered in relation to how such theory can translate into practice. The paper proposes a framework (GOALS) as a tool through which tutors can move theory into practice with the aim of improving student learning from feedback.