929 resultados para weak informative prior


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Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

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A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this study, complementary species-level and intraspecific phylogenies were used to better circumscribe the original native range and history of translocation of the invasive tree Parkinsonia aculeata. Species-level phylogenies were reconstructed using three chloroplast gene regions, and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers were used to reconstruct the intraspecific phylogeny. Together, these phylogenies revealed the timescale of transcontinental lineage divergence and the likely source of recent introductions of the invasive. The sequence data showed that divergence between North American and Argentinean P. aculeata occurred at least 5.7 million years ago, refuting previous hypotheses of recent dispersal between North and South America. AFLP phylogenies revealed the most likely sources of naturalized populations. The AFLP data also identified putatively introgressed plants, underlining the importance of wide sampling of AFLPs and of comparison with uniparentally inherited marker data when investigating hybridizing groups. Although P. aculeata has generally been considered North American, these data show that the original native range of P. aculeata included South America; recent introductions to Africa and Australia are most likely to have occurred from South American populations.

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To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467-475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters' prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters' prior beliefs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Tofu gels were rheologically examined to determine their storage or elastic (G′) and loss or viscous (G″) moduli as a function of frequency within their linear viscoelastic limits. The tofu gels were made using either glucono-δ-lactone (GDL) or calcium sulphate (CaSO4·2H2O), followed by either heat treatment (heated soymilk at 97 °C prior to coagulation and subsequently held at 70 °C for 60 min, HT) or high pressure treatment (400 MPa at 20 °C for 10 min, HP). The overall moduli values of the GDL gels and CaSO4·2H2O gels of both physical treatments were similar, each gave frequency profiles expected for weak viscoelastic materials. However, although both temperature and high pressure treatments could be used to produce tofu gels, the final products were not the same. Pressure formed gels, despite having a higher overall “consistency” (increasing values of their moduli), had a proportionately higher contribution from the loss modulus (increased tan δ). Differences could also be observed using confocal scanning laser microscopy. While such treatment may give rise to differing systems/structures, with new or modified organoleptic properties, the more “open” structures obtained by pressure treatment may well cause processing difficulties if subsequent reworking or moulding is required.

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Tofu gels were rheologically examined to determine their storage or elastic (G') and loss or viscous (G '') moduli as a function of frequency within their linear viscoelastic limits. The tofu gels were made using either glucono-delta-lactone (GDL) or calcium sulphate (CaSO4 center dot 2H(2)O), followed by either heat treatment (heated soymilk at >= 97 degrees C prior to coagulation and subsequently held at 70 degrees C for 60 min, HT) or high pressure treatment (400 MPa at 20 degrees C for 10 min, HP). The overall moduli values of the GDL gels and CaSO4 center dot 2H(2)O gels of both physical treatments were similar, each gave frequency profiles expected for weak viscoelastic materials. However, although both temperature and high pressure treatments could be used to produce tofu gels, the final products were not the same. Pressure formed gels, despite having a higher overall "consistency" (increasing values of their moduli), had a proportionately higher contribution from the loss modulus (increased tan delta). Differences could also be observed using confocal scanning laser microscopy. While such treatment may give rise to differing systems/structures, with new or modified organoleptic properties, the more "open" structures obtained by pressure treatment may well cause processing difficulties if subsequent reworking or moulding is required. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Changes in the theological properties during crystallisation and in the crystal size and morphology of blends containing rapeseed oil with varying percentages of palm stearin (POs) and palm olein (POf) have been studied. The crystals formed from all three blends were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy, light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy, which revealed the development of clusters of 3-5 individual elementary "spherulites" in the early stages of crystallisation. The saturated triacylglycerol content of the solid crystals separated at the onset of crystallisation was much greater than that in the total fat. Fat blends with a higher content of palm stearin had a more rapid nucleation rate when observed by light microscopy, and this caused an earlier change in the rheological properties of the fat during crystallisation. Using a low torque amplitude (0.005 Pa, which was within the linear viscoelastic region of all samples studied) and a frequency of 1 Hz, the viscoelastic properties of melted fat during cooling were studied. All samples, prior to crystallisation, showed weak viscoelastic liquid behaviour (G '', loss modulus >G', storage modulus). After crystallisation a more "solid like" behaviour was observed (G' similar to or greater than G ''). The blend having the highest concentration of POs was found to have the earliest onset of crystallisation (27% w/w POs; 12 mins, 22% w/w POs; 13.5 mins, 17% w/w POs, 15 mins, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in the time to the point when G' became greater than G' among the three blends. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fast interceptive actions, such as catching a ball, rely upon accurate and precise information from vision. Recent models rely on flexible combinations of visual angle and its rate of expansion of which the tau parameter is a specific case. When an object approaches an observer, however, its trajectory may introduce bias into tau-like parameters that render these computations unacceptable as the sole source of information for actions. Here we show that observer knowledge of object size influences their action timing, and known size combined with image expansion simplifies the computations required to make interceptive actions and provides a route for experience to influence interceptive action.