Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

More men than women make mucosal IgA antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) and HPV-18: A study of oral HPV and oral HPV antibodies in a normal healthy population

Background: We have previously shown the high prevalence of oral anti-human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) antibodies in women with HPV-associated cervical neoplasia. It was postulated that the HPV antibodies were initiated after HPV antigenic stimulation at the cervix via the common mucosal immune system. The present study aimed to further evaluate the effectiveness of oral fluid testing for detecting the mucosal humoral response to HPV infection and to advance our limited understanding of the immune response to HPV. Methods: The prevalence of oral HPV infection and oral antibodies to HPV types 16, 18 and 11 was determined in a normal, healthy population of children, adolescents and adults, both male and female, attending a dental clinic. HPV types in buccal cells were determined by DNA sequencing. Oral fluid was collected from the gingival crevice of the mouth by the OraSure method. HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 antibodies in oral fluid were detected by virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As a reference group 44 women with cervical neoplasia were included in the study. Results: Oral HPV infection was h ighest in children (9/114, 7.9%), followed by adolescents (4/78, 5.1%), and lowest in normal adults (4/116, 3.5%). The predominant HPV type found was HPV-13 (7/22, 31.8%) followed by HPV-32 (5/22, 22.7%). The prevalence of oral antibodies to HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 was low in children and increased substantially in adolescents and normal adults. Oral HPV-16 IgA was significantly more prevalent in women with cervical neoplasia (30/44, 68.2%) than the women from the dental clinic (18/69, 26.1% P = 0.0001). Significantly more adult men than women displayed oral HPV-16 IgA (30/47 compared with 18/69, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.09-12.1, P < 0.001) and HPV-18 IgA (17/47 compared with 13/69, OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.97-6.2, P = 0.04). Conclusion: The increased prevalence of oral HPV antibodies in adolescent individuals compared with children was attributed to the onset of sexual activity. The increased prevalence of oral anti-HPV IgA in men compared with women was noteworthy considering reportedly fewer men than women make serum antibodies, and warrants further investigation. © 2006 Marais et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

From conceptual process models to running workflows : a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

On the importance of an acid additive in the synthesis of pyrido[1,2-a]benzimidazoles by direct copper-catalyzed amination

Pyrido[1,2-a]benzimidazoles1, 2a are interesting compounds both from the viewpoint of medicinal chemistry2–7 (solubility,7 DNA intercalation3) and materials chemistry8 (fluorescence). Of note among the former is the antibiotic drug Rifaximin,5 which contains this heteroaromatic core. The classical synthetic approach for the assembly of pyrido[1,2-a]benzimidazoles is by [3+3] cyclocondensation of benzimidazoles containing a methylene group at C2 with appropriate bielectrophiles.2a However, these procedures are often low-yielding, involve indirect/lengthy sequences, and/or provide access to a limited range of products, primarily providing derivatives with substituents located on the pyridine ring (A ring, Scheme 1).2–4 Theoretically, a good alternative synthetic method for the synthesis of pyrido[1,2-a]benzimidazoles with substituents in the benzene ring (C ring) should be accessible by intramolecular transition-metal-catalyzed CN bond formation in N-(2-chloroaryl)pyridin-2-amines, based on chemistry recently developed in our research group.9 These substrates themselves are easily available through SNAr or selective Pd-catalyzed amination10 of 2-chloropyridine with 2-chloroanilines.11 If a synthetic procedure that eliminated the need for preactivation of the 2-position of the 2-chloroarylamino entity could be developed, this would be even more powerful, as anilines are more readily commercially available than 2-chloroanilines. Therefore the synthesis of pyrido[1,2-a]benzimidazoles (4) by a transition-metal-catalyzed intramolecular CH amination approach from N-arylpyridin-2-amines (3) was explored (Scheme 1).

Mining resource profiles from event logs

Human resources are often responsible for the execution of business processes. In order to evaluate resource performance and identify best practices as well as opportunities for improvement, managers need objective information about resource behaviours. Companies often use information systems to support their processes and these systems record information about process execution in event logs. We present a framework for analysing and evaluating resource behaviour through mining such event logs. The framework provides a method for extracting descriptive information about resource skills, utilisation, preferences, productivity and collaboration patterns; a method for analysing relationships between different resource behaviours and outcomes; and a method for evaluating the overall resource productivity, tracking its changes over time and comparing it with the productivity of other resources. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework we apply it to analyse behaviours of employees in an Australian company and evaluate its usefulness by a survey among managers in industry.

Single layer lead iodide: Computational exploration of structural, electronic and optical properties, strain induced band modulation and the role of spin-orbital-coupling

Graphitic like layered materials exhibit intriguing electronic structures and thus the search for new types of two-dimensional (2D) monolayer materials is of great interest for developing novel nano-devices. By using density functional theory (DFT) method, here we for the first time investigate the structure, stability, electronic and optical properties of monolayer lead iodide (PbI2). The stability of PbI2 monolayer is first confirmed by phonon dispersion calculation. Compared to the calculation using generalized gradient approximation, screened hybrid functional and spin–orbit coupling effects can not only predicts an accurate bandgap (2.63 eV), but also the correct position of valence and conduction band edges. The biaxial strain can tune its bandgap size in a wide range from 1 eV to 3 eV, which can be understood by the strain induced uniformly change of electric field between Pb and I atomic layer. The calculated imaginary part of the dielectric function of 2D graphene/PbI2 van der Waals type hetero-structure shows significant red shift of absorption edge compared to that of a pure monolayer PbI2. Our findings highlight a new interesting 2D material with potential applications in nanoelectronics and optoelectronics.

Efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: Results of a randomised placebo-controlled trial (ABILITY-1)

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). Methods: Patients fulfilled Assessment of Spondyloarthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria for axial spondyloarthritis, had a Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) score of ≥ 4, total back pain score of ≥ 4 (10 cm visual analogue scale) and inadequate response, intolerance or contraindication to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs); patients fulfilling modified New York criteria for ankylosing spondylitis were excluded. Patients were randomised to adalimumab (N=91) or placebo (N=94). The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients achieving ASAS40 at week 12. Efficacy assessments included BASDAI and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS). MRI was performed at baseline and week 12 and scored using the Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada (SPARCC) index. Results: Significantly more patients in the adalimumab group achieved ASAS40 at week 12 compared with patients in the placebo group (36% vs 15%, p<0.001). Significant clinical improvements based on other ASAS responses, ASDAS and BASDAI were also detected at week 12 with adalimumab treatment, as were improvements in quality of life measures. Inflammation in the spine and sacroiliac joints on MRI significantly decreased after 12 weeks of adalimumab treatment. Shorter disease duration, younger age, elevated baseline C-reactive protein or higher SPARCC MRI sacroiliac joint scores were associated with better week 12 responses to adalimumab. The safety profile was consistent with what is known for adalimumab in ankylosing spondylitis and other diseases. Conclusions: In patients with nr-axSpA, adalimumab treatment resulted in effective control of disease activity, decreased inflammation and improved quality of life compared with placebo. Results from ABILITY-1 suggest that adalimumab has a positive benefit-risk profile in active nr-axSpA patients with inadequate response to NSAIDs.

Carbon nanodot decorated graphitic carbon nitride: New insights into the enhanced photocatalytic water splitting from ab initio studies

Interfacing carbon nanodots (C-dots) with graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4) produces a metal-free system that has recently demonstrated significant enhancement of photo-catalytic performance for water splitting into hydrogen [Science, 2015, 347, 970–974]. However, the underlying photo-catalytic mechanism is not fully established. Herein, we have carried out density functional theory (DFT) calculations to study the interactions between g-C3N4 and trigonal/hexagonal shaped C-dots. We find that hybrid C-dots/g-C3N4 can form a type-II van der Waals heterojunction, leading to significant reduction of band gap. The C-dot decorated g-C3N4 enhances the separation of photogenerated electron and hole pairs and the composite's visible light response. Interestingly, the band alignment of C-dots and g-C3N4 calculated by the hybrid functional method indicates that C-dots act as a spectral sensitizer in hybrid C-dots/g-C3N4 for water splitting. Our results offer new theoretical insights into this metal-free photocatalyst for water splitting.

Wave propagation in multi-walled carbon nanotube

In this paper, wave propagation in multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) are studied by modeling them as continuum multiple shell coupled through van der Waals force of interaction. The displacements, namely, axial, radial and circumferential displacements vary along the circumferential direction. The wave propagation are simulated using the wavelet based spectral finite element (WSFE) method. This technique involves Daubechies scaling function approximation in time and spectral element approach. The WSFE Method allows the study of wave properties in both time and frequency domains. This is in contrast to the conventional Fourier transform based analysis which are restricted to frequency domain analysis. Here, first, the wavenumbers and wave speeds of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are Studied to obtain the characteristics of the waves. These group speeds have been compared with those reported in literature. Next, the natural frequencies of a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) are studied for different values of the radius. The frequencies of the first five modes vary linearly with the radius of the SWNT. Finally, the time domain responses are simulated for SWNT and three-walled carbon nanotubes.

A semi-empirical theory of molten salts

A semi-empirical model is presented for describing the interionic interactions in molten salts using the experimentally available structure data. An extension of Bertaut's method of non-overlapping charges is used to estimate the electrostatic interaction energy in ionic melts. It is shown, in agreement with earlier computer simulation studies, that this energy increases when an ionic salt melts. The repulsion between ions is described using a compressible ion theory which uses structure-independent parameters. The van der Waals interactions and the thermal free energy are also included in the total energy, which is minimised with respect to isostructural volume variations to calculate the equilibrium density. Detailed results are presented for three molten systems, NaCl, CaCl2 and ZnCl2, and are shown to be in satisfactory agreement with experiments. With reliable structural data now being reported for several other molten salts, the present study gains relevance.

Development of a Multiplexed Bead-Based Suspension Array for the Detection and Discrimination of Pospiviroid Plant Pathogens

Efficient and reliable diagnostic tools for the routine indexing and certification of clean propagating material are essential for the management of pospiviroid diseases in horticultural crops. This study describes the development of a true multiplexed diagnostic method for the detection and identification of all nine currently recognized pospiviroid species in one assay using Luminex bead-based suspension array technology. In addition, a new data-driven, statistical method is presented for establishing thresholds for positivity for individual assays within multiplexed arrays. When applied to the multiplexed array data generated in this study, the new method was shown to have better control of false positives and false negative results than two other commonly used approaches for setting thresholds. The 11-plex Luminex MagPlex-TAG pospiviroid array described here has a unique hierarchical assay design, incorporating a near-universal assay in addition to nine species-specific assays, and a co-amplified plant internal control assay for quality assurance purposes. All assays of the multiplexed array were shown to be 100% specific, sensitive and reproducible. The multiplexed array described herein is robust, easy to use, displays unambiguous results and has strong potential for use in routine pospiviroid indexing to improve disease management strategies.

Crystal and molecular structure of 15-bromolongibornane-8,9-dione

The crystal and molecular structure of the title compound (1) has been determined by the heavy-atom method from 1038 observed three-dimensional photographic data. Crystals are orthorhombic, with a = 20.07 ± 0.02, b= 10.05 ± 0.02, c= 7.31 ± 0.01 Å, space group P212121, with Z= 4. The structure was refined by block diagonal leastsquares to R 0.099. The conformation of the norbornane moiety is discussed. The seven-membered ring portion of the molecule adopts an approximate chair conformation. The packing of the molecules in the crystal is mainly a consequence of van der Waals interactions.

Free energy calculations of glycosaminoglycan - Protein interactions

Glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) are complex highly charged linear polysaccharides that have a variety of roles in biological processes. We report the first use of molecular dynamics (MD) free energy calculations using the MM/PBSA method to investigate the binding of GAGs to protein molecules, namely the platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1 (PECAM-1) and annexin A2. Calculations of the free energy of the binding of heparin fragments of different sizes reveal the existence of a region of low GAG-binding affinity in domains 5-6 of PECAM-1 and a region of high affinity in domains 2-3, consistent with experimental data and ligand-protein docking studies. A conformational hinge movement between domains 2 and 3 was observed, which allows the binding of heparin fragments of increasing size (pentasaccharides to octasaccharides) with an increasingly higher binding affinity. Similar simulations of the binding of a heparin fragment to annexin A2 reveal the optimization of electrostatic and hydrogen bonding interactions with the protein and protein-bound calcium ions. In general, these free energy calculations reveal that the binding of heparin to protein surfaces is dominated by strong electrostatic interactions for longer fragments, with equally important contributions from van der Waals interactions and vibrational entropy changes, against a large unfavorable desolvation penalty due to the high charge density of these molecules.