Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

The predictive value of psychological assessment of candidates for gastric bypass: A medical chart review

Background and Objectives: Guidelines for bariatric surgery demand a psychological evaluation of applicants. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the presence of "psychological risk factors" predicts postoperative weight loss after gastric bypass. Methods: Medical records of obese women who underwent bariatric surgery between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. Psychological assessment consisted of a one-hour semi-structured interview, summarized in a written report. Anthropometric assessment at baseline and 6,12,18 and 24 months after surgery included body weight, height and body mass index. Results: The mean BMI of included patients (N = 92) was 46.2 + 6,3 kg/m(2) (range 38.4-69.7). Based on the psychological assessment, 27% (N = 25) of the patients were classified as having "psychological risk factors" and 28% (N = 26) were diagnosed with a psychiatric diagnosis, most often major depression. Two years after gastric bypass, 16% of patients with "psychological risk factors" achieved an excellent result (%EWL > 75) versus 39% of those without (p < 0.05). About 1 out of 4 patients was in postoperative psychiatric treatment, but only half of them were identified as having "psychological risk factors" at baseline. Weight loss of patients initiating a psychiatric treatment only after surgery was less than of patients who continued psychiatric treatment already initiated before surgery (55.7 + 14.8 versus 66.5 + 14.2 %EWL). Conclusions: A single semi-structured psychological interview may identify patients who are at risk for diminished postoperative weight loss; however, psychological assessment did not identify those patients who were in need of a psychiatric postoperative treatment.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm

Le rétinoblastome (Rb) est une tumeur provenant des cellules rétiniennes progénitrices des photorécepteurs. C'est la tumeur pédiatrique maligne la plus fréquente avec une incidence par naissance évaluée entre 1/15Ό00 et 1/20Ό00. Les enfants atteints de Rb sont diagnostiqué dans leur grande majorité avant l'âge de 4 ans, soit le temps nécessaire à la différentiation et à la maturation des photorécepteurs et donc à la disparition de la cellule d'origine du Rb. La survie du patient, la sauvegarde oculaire et le pronostic visuel restent excellents pour autant que le traitement ne soit pas différé. Dans sa variante non héréditaire (60%) le Rb est toujours unilatéral et sporadique. Le Rb héréditaire de transmission dominante autosomique (40%), se décline sous toutes les formes, familiale (10%) ou sporadique (30%), que l'atteinte soit unilatérale ou bilatérale. La majorité des mutations causales sont uniques et distribuées de façon aléatoire sur la totalité du gène RB1 sans région prédisposante. La détection de ces mutations est couteuse et chronophage, tout en présentant un taux de détection relativement bas; surtout dans les cas de Rb sporadiques unilatéraux. Dans le but d'identifier les patients présentant un risque réel de développer un Rb, et de réduire le nombre d'examens sous narcose requis pour le dépistage de la maladie chez les sujets à risque, nous avons développé une stratégie sensible, rapide, efficace et peu couteuse basée sur une analyse de l'haplotype intragénique. Cet algorithme prend en compte a) la perte d'hétérozygotie intratumorale du gène RB1, b) l'origine paternelle préférentielle des nouvelles mutations germinales et c) un risque a priori dérivé des données empiriques de Vogel. Pendant la période allant de janvier 1994 à décembre 2006, nous avons comparé l'apparition de nouveau Rb parmi la fratrie et la descendance de patient atteints au nombre de nouveaux cas attendus calculé par notre algorithme. 134 familles ont été étudiées. L'analyse moléculaire a été effectuée chez 570 personnes dont 99 patients âgés de moins de 4 ans et donc à risque de développer un Rb. Parmi cette cohorte, nous avons observé l'apparition d'un cas de Rb, alors que les risques cumulés a posteriori calculé par notre algorithme prédisait l'apparition de 1.77 nouveau cas. Dans cette étude, nous avons pu valider notre algorithme prédisant la récurrence de Rb chez les parents de 1er degré de patients atteints. Cet outil devrait grandement faciliter le conseil génétique ainsi que le suivi des patients à risque de développer un Rb, surtout dans les cas ou le séquençage direct du gène RB1 n'est pas disponible ou est resté non informatif. - Purpose: Most RBI mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RBI gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblas-toma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. Methods: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RBI loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. Results: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. Conclusions: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RBI screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

The systemic lupus erythematosus IRF5 risk haplotype is associated with systemic sclerosis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a fibrotic autoimmune disease in which the genetic component plays an important role. One of the strongest SSc association signals outside the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region corresponds to interferon (IFN) regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), a major regulator of the type I IFN pathway. In this study we aimed to evaluate whether three different haplotypic blocks within this locus, which have been shown to alter the protein function influencing systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) susceptibility, are involved in SSc susceptibility and clinical phenotypes. For that purpose, we genotyped one representative single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of each block (rs10488631, rs2004640, and rs4728142) in a total of 3,361 SSc patients and 4,012 unaffected controls of Caucasian origin from Spain, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and United Kingdom. A meta-analysis of the allele frequencies was performed to analyse the overall effect of these IRF5 genetic variants on SSc. Allelic combination and dependency tests were also carried out. The three SNPs showed strong associations with the global disease (rs4728142: P  = 1.34×10(-8), OR  = 1.22, CI 95%  = 1.14-1.30; rs2004640: P  = 4.60×10(-7), OR  = 0.84, CI 95%  = 0.78-0.90; rs10488631: P  = 7.53×10(-20), OR  = 1.63, CI 95%  = 1.47-1.81). However, the association of rs2004640 with SSc was not independent of rs4728142 (conditioned P  = 0.598). The haplotype containing the risk alleles (rs4728142*A-rs2004640*T-rs10488631*C: P  = 9.04×10(-22), OR  = 1.75, CI 95%  = 1.56-1.97) better explained the observed association (likelihood P-value  = 1.48×10(-4)), suggesting an additive effect of the three haplotypic blocks. No statistical significance was observed in the comparisons amongst SSc patients with and without the main clinical characteristics. Our data clearly indicate that the SLE risk haplotype also influences SSc predisposition, and that this association is not sub-phenotype-specific.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

The role of polymerase chain reaction of high-risk human papilloma virus in the screening of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in the anal mucosa of human immunodeficiency virus-positive males having sex with males.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the advantages of cytology and PCR of high-risk human papilloma virus (PCR HR-HPV) infection in biopsy-derived diagnosis of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL = AIN2/AIN3) in HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). METHODS This is a single-centered study conducted between May 2010 and May 2014 in patients (n = 201, mean age 37 years) recruited from our outpatient clinic. Samples of anal canal mucosa were taken into liquid medium for PCR HPV analysis and for cytology. Anoscopy was performed for histology evaluation. RESULTS Anoscopy showed 33.8% were normal, 47.8% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), and 18.4% HSIL; 80.2% had HR-HPV. PCR of HR-HPV had greater sensitivity than did cytology (88.8% vs. 75.7%) in HSIL screening, with similar positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 20.3 vs. 22.9 and 89.7 vs. 88.1, respectively. Combining both tests increased the sensitivity and NPV of HSIL diagnosis to 100%. Correlation of cytology vs. histology was, generally, very low and PCR of HR-HPV vs. histology was non-existent (<0.2) or low (<0.4). Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve analysis of cytology and PCR HR-HPV for the diagnosis of HSIL was poor (<0.6). Multivariate regression analysis showed protective factors against HSIL were: viral suppression (OR: 0.312; 95%CI: 0.099-0.984), and/or syphilis infection (OR: 0.193; 95%CI: 0.045-0.827). HSIL risk was associated with HPV-68 genotype (OR: 20.1; 95%CI: 2.04-197.82). CONCLUSIONS When cytology and PCR HR-HPV findings are normal, the diagnosis of pre-malignant HSIL can be reliably ruled-out in HIV-positive patients. HPV suppression with treatment protects against the appearance of HSIL.

The expression level of BAALC-associated microRNA miR-3151 is an independent prognostic factor in younger patients with cytogenetic intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML.

The lincRNA HOTAIRM1, located in the HOXA genomic region, is expressed in acute myeloid leukemia, impacts prognosis in patients in the intermediate-risk cytogenetic category, and is associated with a distinctive microRNA signature.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are deregulated in several tumors, although their role in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is mostly unknown.We have examined the expression of the lncRNA HOX antisense intergenic RNA myeloid 1 (HOTAIRM1) in 241 AML patients. We have correlated HOTAIRM1 expression with a miRNA expression profile. We have also analyzed the prognostic value of HOTAIRM1 expression in 215 intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients.The lowest expression level was observed in acute promyelocytic leukemia (P < 0.001) and the highest in t(6;9) AML (P = 0.005). In 215 IR-AML patients, high HOTAIRM1 expression was independently associated with shorter overall survival (OR:2.04;P = 0.001), shorter leukemia-free survival (OR:2.56; P < 0.001) and a higher cumulative incidence of relapse (OR:1.67; P = 0.046). Moreover, HOTAIRM1 maintained its independent prognostic value within the favorable molecular subgroup (OR: 3.43; P = 0.009). Interestingly, HOTAIRM1 was overexpressed in NPM1-mutated AML (P < 0.001) and within this group retained its prognostic value (OR: 2.21; P = 0.01). Moreover, HOTAIRM1 expression was associated with a specific 33-microRNA signature that included miR-196b (P < 0.001). miR-196b is located in the HOX genomic region and has previously been reported to have an independent prognostic value in AML. miR-196b and HOTAIRM1 in combination as a prognostic factor can classify patients as high-, intermediate-, or low-risk (5-year OS: 24% vs 42% vs 70%; P = 0.004).Determination of HOTAIRM1 level at diagnosis provided relevant prognostic information in IR-AML and allowed refinement of risk stratification based on common molecular markers. The prognostic information provided by HOTAIRM1 was strengthened when combined with miR-196b expression. Furthermore, HOTAIRM1 correlated with a 33-miRNA signature.

A Nested Case-Control Study of Metabolically Defined Body Size Phenotypes and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND Obesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS The association of metabolically defined body size phenotypes with colorectal cancer was investigated in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolic health/body size phenotypes were defined according to hyperinsulinaemia status using serum concentrations of C-peptide, a marker of insulin secretion. A total of 737 incident colorectal cancer cases and 737 matched controls were divided into tertiles based on the distribution of C-peptide concentration amongst the control population, and participants were classified as metabolically healthy if below the first tertile of C-peptide and metabolically unhealthy if above the first tertile. These metabolic health definitions were then combined with body mass index (BMI) measurements to create four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories: (1) metabolically healthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), (2) metabolically healthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), (3) metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), and (4) metabolically unhealthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Additionally, in separate models, waist circumference measurements (using the International Diabetes Federation cut-points [≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men]) were used (instead of BMI) to create the four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories. Statistical tests used in the analysis were all two-sided, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. In multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression models with BMI used to define adiposity, compared with metabolically healthy/normal weight individuals, we observed a higher colorectal cancer risk among metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) and metabolically unhealthy/overweight (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94) participants, but not among metabolically healthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42). Among the overweight individuals, lower colorectal cancer risk was observed for metabolically healthy/overweight individuals compared with metabolically unhealthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). These associations were generally consistent when waist circumference was used as the measure of adiposity. To our knowledge, there is no universally accepted clinical definition for using C-peptide level as an indication of hyperinsulinaemia. Therefore, a possible limitation of our analysis was that the classification of individuals as being hyperinsulinaemic-based on their C-peptide level-was arbitrary. However, when we used quartiles or the median of C-peptide, instead of tertiles, as the cut-point of hyperinsulinaemia, a similar pattern of associations was observed. CONCLUSIONS These results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.

The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing primary PCI. The purpose of this analysis was not to decide which patients should undergo PCI, but to predict clinical outcomes in this population. METHODS: The SXscore was determined in a consecutive series of 114 elderly patients (mean age, 79.6 ± 4.1 years) undergoing primary PCI for ACS. Outcomes were stratified according to SXscore tertiles: SXLOW ≤15 (n = 39), 15< SXMID <23 (n = 40), and SXHIGH ≥23 (n = 35). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Secondary endpoints were nonfatal major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days, and 1-year outcomes in patients discharged alive. RESULTS: Mortality at 30 days was higher in the SXHIGH group compared with the aggregate SXLOW+MID group (37.1% vs 5.1%; P<.0001), and in the CSSHIGH group compared with the aggregate CSSLOW+MID group (25.5% vs 1.4%; P=.0001). MACCE rates at 30 days were similar among SXscore tertiles. The CSS predicted 1-year MACCE rates (12.1% for CSSHIGH vs 3.1% for CSSLOW+MID; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore predicts 30-day mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing primary PCI. In patients discharged alive, the CSS predicts risk of MACCE at 1 year.

Public health value of fixed-dose combinations in hypertension.

It is well documented that reducing blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive individuals reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Despite this, many patients with hypertension remain untreated or inadequately treated, and fail to reach the recommended BP goals. Suboptimal BP control, whilst arising from multiple causes, is often due to poor patient compliance and/or persistence, and results in a significant health and economic burden on society. The use of fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of hypertension has the potential to increase patient compliance and persistence. When compared with antihypertensive monotherapies, FDCs may also offer equivalent or better efficacy, and the same or improved tolerability. As a result, FDCs have the potential to reduce both the CV event rates and the non-drug healthcare costs associated with hypertension. When FDCs are adopted for the treatment of hypertension, issues relating to copayment, formulary restrictions and therapeutic reference pricing must be addressed.

Use of non-invasive ambulatory blood pressure monitoring to screen for high-risk hypertensive patients.

Blood pressures measured casually by a doctor often differ considerably from those recorded during everyday activities away from the medical environment. In the present study, we compared office and ambulatory recorded pressures in 475 consecutive untreated patients diagnosed hypertensive by physicians. Blood pressure monitored non-invasively during the day was, on average 15/7 mmHg lower than the corresponding office pressures. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressure tended to be greatest in those patients with the highest office blood pressure levels, although the relationship between the two types of measurement was too weak (r = 0.50 and 0.38 for systolic and diastolic pressure, respectively) to have any predictive value in the individual patient. Office blood pressures were at least 10 mmHg higher than ambulatory pressures in 62% of patients for systolic and 42% for diastolic pressure. Blood pressure levels recorded during ambulatory monitoring were higher than in the doctor's office for 18% of patients for systolic and 22% for diastolic pressure. Among patients with systolic pressures of between 161 and 180 mmHg or diastolic pressures between 96 and 105 mmHg when facing a doctor, 27 and 37% respectively, showed markedly lower systolic (less than 140 mmHg) or diastolic (less than 90 mmHg) ambulatory recorded pressures. These data therefore indicate that ambulatory blood pressure monitoring may help to identify those truly hypertensive patients who are most likely to benefit from antihypertensive therapy.

SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging: long-term prognostic value in diabetic patients with and without coronary artery disease.

AIM: To determine the long-term prognostic value of SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for the occurrence of cardiovascular events in diabetic patients. PATIENTS, METHODS: SPECT MPI of 210 consecutive Caucasian diabetic patients were analysed using Kaplan-Meier event-free survival curves and independent predictors were determined by Cox multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Follow-up was complete in 200 (95%) patients with a median period of 3.0 years (0.8-5.0). The population was composed of 114 (57%) men, age 65 +/- 10 years, 181 (90.5%) type 2 diabetes mellitus, 50 (25%) with a history of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 98 (49%) presenting chest pain prior to MPI. The prevalence of abnormal MPI was 58%. Patients with a normal MPI had neither cardiac death, nor myocardial infarction, independently of a history of coronary artery disease or chest pain. Among the independent predictors of cardiac death and myocardial infarction, the strongest was abnormal MPI (p < 0.0001), followed by history of CAD (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 15.9; p = 0.0001), diabetic retinopathy (HR = 10.0; p = 0.001) and inability to exercise (HR = 7.7; p = 0.02). Patients with normal MPI had a low revascularisation rate of 2.4% during the follow-up period. Compared to normal MPI, cardiovascular events increased 5.2 fold for reversible defects, 8.5 fold for fixed defects and 20.1 fold for the association of both defects. CONCLUSION: Diabetic patients with normal MPI had an excellent prognosis independently of history of CAD. On the opposite, an abnormal MPI led to a >5-fold increase in cardiovascular events. This emphasizes the value of SPECT MPI in predicting and risk-stratifying cardiovascular events in diabetic patients.