Importance of nuclear data uncertainties in criticality calculations

The aim of this paper is to study the importance of nuclear data uncertainties in the prediction of the uncertainties in keff for LWR (Light Water Reactor) unit-cells. The first part of this work is focused on the comparison of different sensitivity/uncertainty propagation methodologies based on TSUNAMI and MCNP codes; this study is undertaken for a fresh-fuel at different operational conditions. The second part of this work studies the burnup effect where the indirect contribution due to the uncertainty of the isotopic evolution is also analyzed.

Güímar and La Orotava mega-landslides (Tenerife) and tsunamis deposits in Canary Islands

More than 20 mega-landslides have been described in the Canary Islands affecting the flanks of the volcanic edifices. Gliimar and La Orotava landslides, in Tenerife, are two exceptional cases due to their huge dimensions and outstanding geomorphological features. The estimated volume of these landslides exceed tens of cubic km. Tsunami deposits have been also identified in some of the islands of the archipelago probably associated to the large landslides of the islands flanks. An investigation has been carried out to explain the causes of these large instability processes and their failure mechanisms. One of the main aspects investigated was the geomechanical characteristics of the volcanic rock masses, specially the hyaloclastite rocks forming the substratum underlying the emerged volcanic building. The low strength and high deformability properties of these rocks have played a fundamental role on the stability of the island flanks. The results have shown the gravitational origin of these instability processes as the main failure mechanism. Volcanic eruptions or large earthquakes could be contributing factors to the instability, but according with the data obtained in Gliimar and La Orotava cases they are not necessary as triggering factors. As a result of the field work carried out in the frame of the project, three large tsunami deposits have been identified in the islands of Lanzarote, Tenerifc and Gran Canaria attributed to rnega-Iandslides, possibly related to Guimar and La Orotava. A Sumrnary of their main features is described.

Agaete revisited: new data on the Gran Canaria tsunamiites.

The tsunami deposits of the valley of Agaete (Pérez-Torrado et al., 2006), north-western Gran Canaria, attributed to the Guimar flank collapse in Tenerife, have been revisited and new data are presented here. Besides the occurrences reported by Pérez-Torrado et al. (2006) a new outcrop was found and named “La Ruina” (at 28º 05’ 47,41” N; 15º 41’ 52,04” W; 71 m asl). The above-mentioned authors suggested the possibility that more than one marine conglomerate deposit could be present in the outcrops of “Llanos de Turmán” and “Berrazales”. At “La Gasolinera” and “La Aldea 1” the conglomerates are formed by a single layer representing one depositional event; at “La Aldea 2”, the conglomerates are composed of two layers directly contacting with each other, but evidence of a time hiatus between them was not found. Although the hypothesis of stacking of two depositional units within the same episode versus deposition of two distinct layers in different time-moments is debatable at the present state of knowledge, the first possibility is favoured. The field evidence at “Llanos de Turman” and “Berrazales” unquestionably shows that terrestrial sediments (colluvia; paleosols) are present and separate two marine conglomerate deposits, indicating that at least two distinct tsunami inundations are needed to explain the stratigraphy. However, at the new “La Ruina” outcrop, besides the two deposits mentioned above, a third and older marine conglomerate was found, clearly separated in time from the ones cited above. The existence of marine conglomerates emplaced in different moments is evidenced by the occurrence of intercalated paleosols, colluvia and other subaerial materials, implying significant time intervals between the emplacement of marine conglomeratic layers. A number of gastropod operculae from the tsunamiites were sent for U-Th dating to try to further constrain the age span of these deposits. The field evidence presented above shows that the emplacement of the deposits is related to, at least, three tsunami events. The lateral correlation between different outcrops is difficult due to variable number of deposits in each outcrop, lateral discontinuity and variability, and to compositional and textural similarity between distinct tsunami sediments. The occurrence of three Pleistocene tsunami deposits in the same area points to a relatively high frequency of tsunamis (generated by landslides, surface rupturing earthquakes, fast entry of voluminous volcanic deposits into the sea or large submarine eruptions). It is possible that this recurrence of tsunami inundations may reflect multiple-phased landslides responsible for the mega-landslide scars prominent in the geomorphology of the neighbouring island of Tenerife. This is a contribution from project “Estabilidad de los edificios volcánicos en Canarias: análisis de los factores geológicos, geomecánicos y paleoclimáticos. Aplicación a los flancos N y S de la isla de Tenerife” financed by MCT, Spain.

Consideraciones y recomendaciones para el diseño de estructuras bajo amenaza de tsunamis

La visión del riesgo es muy importante a la hora de diseñar y construir estructuras. Sobre todo en presencia de catástrofes naturales. Esta tesis presenta las consideraciones y recomendaciones a tener en cuenta para proyectar estructuras en zonas con riesgo de tsunami, tras haber estudiado todos los riesgos y soluciones posibles mediante tres técnicas diferentes. Esto se ha obtenido aplicando el método LOGRO (Líder de Organización de Gestión de Riesgos y Oportunidades). Se puede pensar que la única solución posible ante esta catástrofe es no construir en zonas vulnerables, pero no es posible. Hay que tener en cuenta que no todos los tsunamis son de la misma magnitud e intensidad y este trabajo contempla todos ellos con distintos niveles de actuación para cada situación. Por otro lado, existen lugares costeros muy urbanizados en los que sería imposible fomentar la emigración, y zonas turísticas donde lo que prima es la cercanía a la costa. Las resultados obtenidos de esta investigación tienen como objetivo reducir el riesgo vinculado al tsunami, minimizando tanto probabilidades de ocurrencia como consecuencias. The hazard view is very important when designing and building structures, mainly, under natural disasters. This thesis presents the considerations and recommendations to take into account to project structures in tsunami prone areas after having studied all the hazards and possible solutions through three different techniques. This has been obtained using LOGRO´s method. It is easy to think that the only possible solution to this disaster is not to build in vulnerable areas, but it is not like this. It has to be taken into account that not all tsunamis are of the same magnitude neither of the same intensity and this work considers all of them with different performance levels for each situation. On the other hand, there are very developed coastal places where it would be impossible to encourage emigration, and touristic areas where the closeness to the coast is what comes first. The aim of the results obtained in this research is to reduce the tsunami hazard minimising not only probabilities but also consequences.

Diseño de un sistema regional de alerta de tsunamis como parte integral de la operación portuaria

En este trabajo se presenta el desarrollo de una metodología para obtener un universo de funciones de Green y el algoritmo correspondiente, para estimar la altura de tsunamis a lo largo de la costa occidental de México en función del momento sísmico y de la extensión del área de ruptura de sismos interplaca localizados entre la costa y la Trinchera Mesoamericana. Tomando como caso de estudio el sismo ocurrido el 9 de octubre de 1995 en la costa de Jalisco-Colima, se estudiaron los efectos del tsunami originados en la hidrodinámica del Puerto de Manzanillo, México, con una propuesta metodológica que contempló lo siguiente: El primer paso de la metodología contempló la aplicación del método inverso de tsunamis para acotar los parámetros de la fuente sísmica mediante la confección de un universo de funciones de Green para la costa occidental de México. Tanto el momento sísmico como la localización y extensión del área de ruptura de sismos se prescribe en segmentos de planos de falla de 30 X 30 km. A cada uno de estos segmentos del plano de falla corresponde un conjunto de funciones de Green ubicadas en la isobata de 100 m, para 172 localidades a lo largo de la costa, separadas en promedio 12 km entre una y otra. El segundo paso de la metodología contempló el estudio de la hidrodinámica (velocidades de las corrientes y niveles del mar en el interior del puerto y el estudio del runup en la playa) originada por el tsunami, la cual se estudió en un modelo hidráulico de fondo fijo y en un modelo numérico, representando un tsunami sintético en la profundidad de 34 m como condición inicial, el cual se propagó a la costa con una señal de onda solitaria. Como resultado de la hidrodinámica del puerto de Manzanillo, se realizó un análisis de riesgo para la definición de las condiciones operativas del puerto en términos de las velocidades en el interior del mismo, y partiendo de las condiciones iniciales del terremoto de 1995, se definieron las condiciones límites de operación de los barcos en el interior y exterior del puerto. In this work is presented the development of a methodology in order to obtain a universe of Green's functions and the corresponding algorithm in order to estimate the tsunami wave height along the west coast of Mexico, in terms of seismic moment and the extent of the area of the rupture, in the interplate earthquakes located between the coast and the Middle America Trench. Taking as a case of study the earthquake occurred on October 9, 1995 on the coast of Jalisco-Colima, were studied the hydrodynamics effects of the tsunami caused in the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico, with a methodology that contemplated the following The first step of the methodology contemplated the implementation of the tsunami inverse method to narrow the parameters of the seismic source through the creation of a universe of Green's functions for the west coast of Mexico. Both the seismic moment as the location and extent of earthquake rupture area prescribed in segments fault planes of 30 X 30 km. Each of these segments of the fault plane corresponds a set of Green's functions located in the 100 m isobath, to 172 locations along the coast, separated on average 12 km from each other. The second step of the methodology contemplated the study of the hydrodynamics (speed and directions of currents and sea levels within the port and the study of the runup on the beach Las Brisas) caused by the tsunami, which was studied in a hydraulic model of fix bed and in a numerical model, representing a synthetic tsunami in the depth of 34 m as an initial condition which spread to the coast with a solitary wave signal. As a result of the hydrodynamics of the port of Manzanillo, a risk analysis to define the operating conditions of the port in terms of the velocities in the inner and outside of the port was made, taken in account the initial conditions of the earthquake and tsunami ocurred in Manzanillo port in 1995, were defined the limits conditions of operation of the ships inside and outside the port.

O BOCA A BOCA ON-LINE: AS IMPLICAÇÕES DA VOZ DO CONSUMIDOR NA COMUNICAÇÃO DE MERCADO

O consumidor contemporâneo, inserido em um novo ambiente de comunicação, potencializa suas expressões, capaz de avaliar uma marca ou produto e transmitir sua opinião pelas redes sociais, ou seja, o consumidor expressa suas opiniões e desejos dialogando com seus pares de forma espontânea nas redes sociais on-line. É neste ambiente de participação e interação (ciberespaço) que está nosso objeto de estudo, o boca a boca on-line – a voz do consumidor contemporâneo, também conhecido como uma manifestação informativa pessoal ou uma conversa, a opinion sharing. Proporcionado pelos consumidores nas redes sociais on-line, o boca a boca se fortalece em função das possibilidades de interação, característica da sociedade em rede. Nesse cenário, oobjetivo desta pesquisa é caracterizar o boca a boca on-line como um novo fluxo comunicacional entre consumidores, hoje potencializado pelas novas tecnologias da comunicação, capazes de alterar a percepção da marca e demonstrar o uso, pelas marcas, das redes sociais on-line ainda como um ambiente de comunicação unidirecional. Mediante três casos selecionados por conveniência (dois casos nacionais e um internacional), o corpus de análise de nossa pesquisa se limitou aos 5.084 comentários disponibilizados após publicação de matérias jornalísticas no Portal G1 e nas fanpages (Facebook), ambos relativos aos casos selecionados. Com a Análise de Conteúdo dos posts, identificamos e categorizamos a fala do consumidor contemporâneo, sendo assim possível comprovar que as organizações/marcas se valem da cultura do massivo, não dialogando com seus consumidores, pois utilizam as redes sociais on-line ainda de forma unidirecional, além de não darem a devida atenção ao atual fluxo onde se evidencia a opinião compartilhada dos consumidores da sociedade em rede.

The next step after Japan? (Virtual reality, training and crisis management). Transatlantic Security Paper No. 2, June 2012

The recent crisis in Japan, which combined tsunami and technological events, shows that any crisis, especially those in developed and developing countries, is from here out a hybrid crisis, mixing natural factors and human/technological (NATECH). Faced with such dramatic events, which exceed any means available for emergency rescue service, it is necessary a) to remain prudent and b) to prepare. One of the means for preparing is unquestionably training. However, here, undoubtedly there are important constraints: How to train, for example, while reproducing vividly and realistically, an event? How to exceed the admittedly useful, although very limited, level of the table-top exercise? How also to avoid the unnecessary mobilization of dozens, even hundreds, of field and operation staffers to take part in an exercise which could lead to a disappointing outcome? A major crisis, a major exercise, in effect. The solution of virtual reality has emerged, in Europe and in the United States. It is also sometimes called “serious game”.

O Risco Percebido e Coberto pelas Seguradoras

Os Portugueses desde imemoráveis tempos gostam de partir à descoberta de mundos novos, fazemo-lo pelas mais variadas razões, no entanto, neste trabalho iremos apenas analisar os riscos associados ao turismo de lazer. Os atentados de Nova Iorque em 11 Setembro 2001, Síndrome Respiratório Grave em HongKong em Fevereiro de 2003, o Tsunami no oceano Indico em Dezembro 2004, a erupção vulcânica na Islândia em Abril de 2010 ou os atentados de Paris em 13 de Novembro 2015, estas datas ficaram marcadas para sempre, lemos e relemos inúmeros depoimentos de pessoas que se encontravam de férias nestas cidades e pensamos e se fossemos nós? Os primeiros registos da atividade seguradora datam do ano 5.000 A.C. inicialmente seguravam transportes de mercadorias, hoje em dia podem cobrir “qualquer coisa”. Com a perceção dos riscos que hoje em dia podem ocorrer numa viagem, será que as Seguradoras estão preparadas para minimizar os mesmos? E qual a perceção dos riscos para quem viaja. Para o efeito realizou-se um estudo exploratório por suporte a uma amostra de conveniência que reuniu 152 observações. Análises descritivas e testes não paramétricos foram aplicados para definir quais os riscos mais percebidos e quais os que os turistas portugueses pretendem ver cobertos. Concluiu-se que as pessoas que dão maior importância aos Risco de Saúde e Financeiro são os que efetuam seguros de viagem, já as que dão maior importância aos Risco Equipamento, Risco Politico, Risco Psicológico e Risco de Satisfação são as que optam por não fazer seguro.

Impiego del GNSS per il monitoraggio in aree sismiche

In questo elaborato si tratterà il metodo di analisi e modellazione post-sismica del terreno attraverso l’utilizzo dei dati GPS e dati SAR. Si prenderanno in esame due eventi sismici: il grande terremoto di Tohoku in Giappone del marzo 2011, con particolare attenzione alla conseguente formazione di un grande tsunami, e la sequenza sismica umbro-marchigiana del settembre/ottobre 1997. In tale contesto verranno descritti i diversi strumenti di monitoraggio e i modelli delle sorgenti sismiche, i quali hanno il compito di determinare importanti informazioni per la più rapida valutazione possibile del rischio sismico e per la corretta pianificazione delle attività umane e del territorio. Obiettivo della tesi è descrivere l’efficacia dell’utilizzo congiunto della tecnica di monitoraggio GPS e l’Interferometria Differenziale SAR. Grazie all’analisi ed alla conseguente modellazione dei dati raccolti nei due eventi sismici descritti in questo lavoro si dimostra l’importanza di tali tecniche per comprendere al meglio i fenomeni sismici. Nel primo capitolo verranno descritte le tecniche di monitoraggio GPS e SAR e le successive tecniche di analisi e modellazione dei dati al fine di avere una previsione dell’evento preso in considerazione. Nel secondo capitolo si esamineranno le peculiarità dell’evento sismico giapponese (2011) e delle elaborazioni condotte per caratterizzare lo tsunami provocato dalla rottura del fondale oceanico. Nel terzo capitolo si analizzerà la sequenza sismica umbro-marchigiana del 1997 prestando attenzione allo sviluppo della rete geodetica del territorio nazionale italiano con riferimenti allo sviluppo della Rete Integrata Nazionale GPS (RING). Nel quarto capitolo verrà descritto in modo introduttivo la struttura del software Bernese GNSS v. 5.2; un software di elaborazione dati usato in ambito scientifico per l’analisi di reti GNSS per il controllo delle deformazioni.

Paleontological and sedimentological investigations of a sediment profile from northeast Greenland

The Kap Mackenzie area on the outer coast of northeast Greenland was glaciated during the last glacial stage, and pre-Holocene shell material was brought to the area. Dating of marine shells indicates that deglaciation occurred in the earliest Holocene, before 10 800 cal. a BP. The marine limit is around 53 m a.s.l. In the wake of the deglaciation, a glaciomarine fauna characterized the area, but after c. one millennium a more species-rich marine fauna took over. This fauna included Mytilus edulis and Mysella sovaliki, which do not live in the region at present; the latter is new to the Holocene fauna of northeast Greenland. The oldest M. edulis sample is dated to c. 9500 cal. a BP, which is the earliest date for the species from the region and indicates that the Holocene thermal maximum began earlier in the region than previously documented. This is supported by driftwood dated to c. 9650 cal. a BP, which is the earliest driftwood date so far from northeastern Greenland and implies that the coastal area was at least partly free of sea ice in summer. As indicated by former studies, the Storegga tsunami hit the Kap Mackenzie area at c. 8100 cal. a BP. Loon Lake, at 18 m a.s.l., was isolated from the sea at c. 6200 cal. a BP, which is distinctly later than expected from existing relative sea-level curves for the region.