Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Legionnaires' disease in the renal transplant unit of "Hospital das Clinicas, FMUSP": during a five year period (1988-1993)

Several reports have related Legionella pneumophila with pneumonia in renal transplant patients, however this association has not been systematically documented in Brazil. Therefore this paper reports the incidence, by serologycal assays, of Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 in these patients during a five year period. For this purpose sera from blood samples of 70 hospitalized patients with pneumonia from the Renal Transplant Unit of Hospital das Clinicas, FMUSP collected at the acute and convalescent phase of infection were submitted to indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) to demonstrate anti-Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 antibodies. Of these 70 patients studied during the period of 1988 to 1993,18 (25.71 %) had significant rises in specific antibody titers for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1. Incidence was interrupted following Hospital water decontamination procedures, with recurrence of infections after treatment interruption. In this study, the high susceptibility (25.71%) of immunodepressed renal transplant patients to Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 nosocomial infections is documented. The importance of the implementation and maintenance of water decontamination measures for prophylaxis of the infection is also clearly evident.

Genomic characterization of adenovirus serotype 7 isolated in Brazil from acute respiratory disease patients during the period from 1980 to 1991

Forty isolates of adenovirus type 7 were analized by restriction enzyme digestion with BamHI, SmaI, EcoRI and HindIII. These isolates were obtained from acute respiratory disease patients during the years 1980 to 1991. Only two genomic types were found: Ad7b and Ad7e, with Ad7b (87.5%) being more frequent than Ad7e (12.5%). The genomic type Ad7e appeared in the years 1980, 1981 and 1983. Ad7b appeared in 1982 and it was the only genomic type found from 1984 to 1991. Both genomic types were responsible for lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory tract infection, but the proportion LRTI/URTI is higher for Ad7b (25/6) than for Ad7e (1/4).

Multidimensional Scalling Analysis of the World Economy During the Period 1972-2012

The last 40 years of the world economy are analyzed by means of computer visualization methods. Multidimensional scaling and the hierarchical clustering tree techniques are used. The current Western downturn in favor of Asian partners may still be reversed in the coming decades.

PATHOGENICITY OF Blastocystis sp. TO THE GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT OF MICE: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INOCULUM SIZE AND PERIOD OF INFECTION

The pathogenic potential of Blastocystis sp. in experimental models requires further investigation. In this work, the pathogenicity of this parasite in the gastrointestinal tract of male Swiss mice was evaluated according to the inoculum size and period of infection. Animals were infected intragastrically, with 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 Blastocystis sp. vacuolar forms obtained from a mixture of eight human isolates cultured axenically in Jones' medium. After seven, 14, 21, 28 and 60 days of infection, the animals were sacrificed and fragments of the small intestine (duodenum), large intestine, and cecum were subjected to histopathological analysis. Blastocystis sp. triggered an inflammatory response in the different tissues analyzed, with a predominance of mononuclear cells. The parasite was found in the muscular layer of the cecum, showing its invasive character. Larger inocula triggered inflammatory processes earlier (seven days) than smaller ones (from 21 days). We conclude that, in the proposed model, the pathogenicity of Blastocystis sp. isolates that were studied is related to inoculum size and period of infection.

Mapping of Chagas disease research: analysis of publications in the period between 1940 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Publications are often used as a measure of success in research work. Chagas disease occurs in Central and Southern America. However, during the past years, the disease has been occurring outside Latin America due to migration from endemic zones. This article describes a bibliometric review of the literature on Chagas disease research indexed in PubMed during a 70-year period. METHODS: Medline was used via the PubMed online service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine from 1940 to 2009. The search strategy was: Chagas disease [MeSH] OR Trypanosoma cruzi [MeSH]. RESULTS: A total of 13,989 references were retrieved. The number of publications increased steadily over time from 1,361 (1940-1969) to 5,430 (2000-2009) (coefficient of determination for linear fit, R²=0.910). Eight journals contained 25% of the Chagas disease literature. Of the publications, 64.2% came from endemic countries. Brazil was the predominant country (37%), followed by the United States (17.6%) and Argentina (14%). The ranking in production changed when the number of publications was normalized by estimated cases of Chagas disease (Panama and Uruguay), population (Argentina and Uruguay), and gross domestic product (Bolivia and Brazil). CONCLUSIONS: Several Latin American countries, where the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was not very high, were the main producers of the Chagas disease literature, after adjusting for economic and population indexes. The countries with more estimated cases of Chagas disease produced less research on Chagas disease than some developed countries.

Demographic determinants of survival of people living with HIV attending an outpatient reference unit in the city of Três Lagoas, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the period 1984-2009

INTRODUCTION: While the incidence of HIV infection and AIDS is increasing in small Brazilian cities, epidemiological studies are often conducted in large urban centers. METHODS: Our group conducted a retrospective analysis of survival determinants among 358 patients who attended a reference unit in a small city. RESULTS: Death risk was lower among men that had sex with men, patients with an HIV-seropositive partner, and those admitted after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was available. CONCLUSIONS: The study documents the striking beneficial effect of HAART. The finding of other groups with improved survival may aid in the development of programmatic strategies.

Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

Mitral restenosis in the early postoperative period of a patient with systemic lupus erythematosus

A forty eight year old woman, who had undergone mitral comissurotomy and subsequently developed early restenosis, presented with major comissural fusion and verrucous lesions on the cuspid edges of the mitral valve, with normal subvalvar apparatus. Patient did well for the first six months after surgery when she began to present dyspnea on light exertion. A clinical diagnosis of restenosis was made, which was confirmed by an echocardiogram and cardiac catheterization. She underwent surgery, and a stenotic mitral valve with verrucous lesions suggesting Libman-Sacks' endocarditis was found. Because the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) had not been confirmed at that time, a bovine pericardium bioprosthesis (FISICS-INCOR) was implanted. The patient did well in the late follow-up and is now in NYHA Class I .

Invasive hemodynamic monitoring in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery

OBJETIVE: To assess the hemodynamic profile of cardiac surgery patients with circulatory instability in the early postoperative period (POP). METHODS: Over a two-year period, 306 patients underwent cardiac surgery. Thirty had hemodynamic instability in the early POP and were monitored with the Swan-Ganz catheter. The following parameters were evaluated: cardiac index (CI), systemic and pulmonary vascular resistance, pulmonary shunt, central venous pressure (CVP), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP), oxygen delivery and consumption, use of vasoactive drugs and of circulatory support. RESULTS: Twenty patients had low cardiac index (CI), and 10 had normal or high CI. Systemic vascular resistance was decreased in 11 patients. There was no correlation between oxygen delivery (DO2) and consumption (VO2), p=0.42, and no correlation between CVP and PCWP, p=0.065. Pulmonary vascular resistance was decreased in 15 patients and the pulmonary shunt was increased in 19. Two patients with CI < 2L/min/m² received circulatory support. CONCLUSION: Patients in the POP of cardiac surgery frequently have a mixed shock due to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Therefore, invasive hemodynamic monitoring is useful in handling blood volume, choice of vasoactive drugs, and indication for circulatory support.

Assessment of splanchnic perfusion with gastric tonometry in the immediate postoperative period of cardiac surgery in children

OBJECTIVE - A prospective, nonrandomized clinical study to assess splanchnic perfusion based on intramucosal pH in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery and to check the evolution of patients during hospitalization. METHODS - We studied 10 children, during the immediate postoperative period after elective cardiac surgery. Sequential intramucosal pH measurements were taken, without dobutamine (T0) and with 5mcg/kg/min (T1) and 10 (T2) mcg/kg/min. In the pediatric intensive care unit, intramucosal pH measurements were made on admission and 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours thereafter. RESULTS - The patients had an increase in intramucosal pH values with dobutamine 10mcg/kg/min [7.19± 0.09 (T0), 7.16±0.13(T1), and 7.32±0.16(T2)], (p=0.103). During the hospitalization period, the intramucosal pH values were the following: 7.20±0.13 (upon admission), 7.27±0.16 (after 4 hours), 7.26±0.07 (after 8 hours), 7.32±0.12 (after 12 hours), and 7.38±0.08 (after 24 hours), (p=0.045). No deaths occurred, and none of the patients developed multiple organ and systems dysfunction. CONCLUSION - An increase in and normalization of intramucosal pH was observed after dobutamine use. Measurement of intramucosal pH is a type of monitoring that is easy to perform and free of complications in children during the postoperative period of cardiac surgery.

Right ventricular diastolic dysfunction in the postoperative period of tetralogy of Fallot

OBJECTIVE: To assess right ventricular diastolic function in the intermediate postoperative period of repair of tetralogy of Fallot. METHODS: We carried out a case-control study with 60 patients divided into 2 groups as follows: 1) group I - 30 patients who had undergone repair of tetralogy of Fallot and 2) group II - 30 healthy children. The 2 groups were paired for age, sex, and body surface. The flows in the pulmonary and tricuspid valves were analyzed with Doppler echocardiography. The presence of anterograde flow at the end of diastole in the pulmonary artery defined restrictive right ventricular physiology. Surgical, radiological, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic variables were analized in the group I. RESULTS: The velocity of the A wave and the E/A ratio for the tricuspid valve showed significant differences between the groups. Cases with E/A < 1.30 predominated in inspiration (group I - 19/30, and group II - 5/30). The duration of the QRS complex on the electrocardiogram was significantly increased in patients with E/A <1.30. Nineteen (63.3%) patients had restrictive right ventricular physiology, which had a longer postoperative period, longer duration of the QRS complex, and a lower E/A ratio in inspiration. The surgical and radiological variables showed no statistical difference. CONCLUSION: Restrictive right ventricular physiology was detected on the intermediate follow-up of most patients undergoing repair of tetralogy of Fallot. The postoperative period and QRS duration were increased in patients with impairment in diastolic function.

Risk factors for acute myocardial infarction during the postoperative period of myocardial revascularization

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for acute myocardial infarction during the postoperative period after myocardial revascularization. METHODS: This was a case-control study paired for sex, age, number, type of graft used, coronary endarterectomy, type of myocardial protection, and use of extracorporeal circulation. We assessed 178 patients (89 patients in each group) undergoing myocardial revascularization, and the following variables were considered: dyslipidemia, systemic hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial revascularization surgery, previous coronary angioplasty, and acute myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Baseline clinical characteristics did not differ in the groups, except for previous myocardial revascularization surgery, prevalent in the case group (34 patients vs. 12 patients; p = 0.0002). This was the only independent predictor of risk for acute myocardial infarction in the postoperative period, based on a multivariate logistic regression analysis (p=0.0001). Mortality and the time of hospital stay of the case group were significantly higher (19.1% vs. 1.1%; p<0.001 and 15.7 days vs. 10.6 days; p<0.05 respectively) than those of the control. CONCLUSION: Only previous myocardial revascularization was an independent predictor of acute myocardial infarction in the postoperative period, based on multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Colchicine to Reduce Atrial Fibrillation in the Postoperative Period of Myocardial Revascularization

Abstract Background: The high prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the postoperative period of myocardial revascularization surgery increases morbidity and mortality. Objective: To assess the efficacy of colchicine to prevent AF in the postoperative period of myocardial revascularization surgery, the impact of AF on hospital length of stay and death, and to identify its risk factors. Methods: Between May 2012 and November 2013, 140 patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery were randomized, 69 to the control group and 71 to the colchicine group. Colchicine was used at the dose of 1 mg orally, twice daily, preoperatively, and of 0.5 mg, twice daily, until hospital discharge. A single dose of 1 mg was administered to those admitted 12 hours or less before surgery. Results: The primary endpoint was AF rate in the postoperative period of myocardial revascularization surgery. Colchicine group patients showed no reduction in AF incidence as compared to control group patients (7.04% versus 13.04%, respectively; p = 0.271). There was no statistically significant difference between the groups regarding death from any cause rate (5.6% versus 10.1%; p = 0,363) and hospital length of stay (14.5 ± 11.5 versus 13.3 ± 9.4 days; p = 0.490). However, colchicine group patients had a higher infection rate (26.8% versus 8.7%; p = 0.007). Conclusion: The use of colchicine to prevent AF after myocardial revascularization surgery was not effective in the present study. Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials number RBR-556dhr.