A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Evaluation of a polynya flux model by means of thermal infrared satellite estimates

We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.

An empirical test of the gravity p-median model

A customer is presumed to gravitate to a facility by the distance to it and the attractiveness of it. However regarding the location of the facility, the presumption is that the customer opts for the shortest route to the nearest facility.This paradox was recently solved by the introduction of the gravity p-median model. The model is yet to be implemented and tested empirically. We implemented the model in an empirical problem of locating locksmiths, vehicle inspections, and retail stores ofv ehicle spare-parts, and we compared the solutions with those of the p-median model. We found the gravity p-median model to be of limited use for the problem of locating facilities as it either gives solutions similar to the p-median model, or it gives unstable solutions due to a non-concave objective function.

Intellectual property and competition as complementary policies: a test using an ordered probit model

Este Artigo Testa a Proposição da Teoria Econômica de que Propriedade Intelectual e Defesa da Concorrência são Políticas Complementares. um Modelo Probit Ordenado é Utilizado para Estimar os Efeitos Marginais do Uso e Qualidade do Enforcement dos Direitos de Propriedade Intelectual em uma Medida da Gravidade dos Problemas Relacionados À Concorrência. os Resultados Obtidos Reforçam a Noção de que as Políticas de Concorrência e Propriedade Intelectual não são Contraditórias.

Altered plasma response to zinc and iron tolerance test after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of the Er,Cr:YSGG laser on bone and soft tissue in a rat model

The purpose of this study was to investigate the histological changes that occur in rat soft and hard tissues after Er,Cr:YSGG laser surgery. Each of 20 rats was submitted to four procedures which were randomly distributed to the right and left sides of the animal: procedure 1 dorsal incision with a scalpel; procedure 2 dorsal incision with a 2.0-W Er,Cr:YSGG laser; procedure 3 skull defect created with a diamond bur; procedure 4 skull defect created with a 3.0-W Er,Cr:YSGG laser. The animals were killed 3, 7, 15 and 30 days after surgery, and histological examinations were performed. The histometric analysis of the bone defects was evaluated using an unpaired t-test. Initially, the dorsum showed more histological signs of repair following procedure 1, although similar healing responses following procedures 1 and 2 were seen on day 30 after surgery. By day 30 the bone formation observed following procedure 4 was much more evident than following procedure 3. The unpaired t-test identified significant differences in bone formation on day 30 (p = 0.01), whereas a greater bone percentage was seen following procedure 4 than following procedure 3 (79.96 +/- 10.30% and 58.23 +/- 9.99%, respectively). Thus, histological repair of the Er,Cr:YSGG laser wounds was similar to that of the scalpel wounds. However, skull defects created with the Er,Cr:YSGG laser showed greater bone formation than defects created with the bur. Within the limitations of this study, we can conclude that the Er,Cr:YSGG laser is a promising surgical instrument in vivo, particularly for bone surgery.

Cardiac remodeling in a rat model of diet-induced obesity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Biocompatibility of a chlorhexidine local delivery system in a subcutaneous mouse model

Objective: This study aimed evaluating histologically and histomorphometrically the response of the conjunctive tissue face to the implant of chlorhexidine chips in the subcutaneous tissues of rats. Study Design: In this research 35 male rats Wistar were used to analyze the biocompatibility and the degradation process of chlorhexidine chip. In each animal, it was made 2 incisions for subcutaneous implantation of chlorhexidine chip (test group) and a polytetrafluorethylene membrane (control group). The morphological changes in subcutaneous implantations were assessed after 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, 21 days. The data were submitted to Friedman nonparametric test to analyze the comparisons among observation periods and to allow the comparison among groups. Results: Differences were found in the analysis of the inflammatory response when comparing the tested materials (p values <= 0.05). In test group was observed hemorrhage, edema and intense inflammatory infiltrate predominantly neutrophilic around material. From 3-day and subsequent periods was verified granulation tissue externally at this infiltrate. From 10-day on was observed crescent area of degradation of chlorhexidine chip, associated with neutrophilic and macrophagic infiltrate, that maintained until 21-day. In the control group, moderate inflammatory infiltrate was observed initially, predominantly polymorphonuclear, edema and granulation tissue 3-day period. The inflammatory infiltrate was gradually replaced for granulation tissue, culminating in a fibrous capsule. Giant multinucleate cells situated at contact interface with the coating was examined since 3-day and persisted until 21-day. Conclusion: The chlorhexidine chip induces an intense acute inflammatory response at subcutaneous tissue of rats. Therefore, at conditions of this study was not biocompatible.

Test of nucleon-nucleon quark cluster model

The description of the short-range part of the nucleon forces in terms of quark degrees of freedom is tested by supplementing, to the short range quark cluster model, a long range mesonic force well founded theoretically.

Influence of gender and estrous cycle in the forced swim test in rats

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Test of the adiabatic nucleation model in SeTe and GeSnSe glasses

Se1-yTey and Ge1-ySnySe2.5 glasses, with compositions Y less than or equal to 0.5 and Y less than or equal to 0.6 respectively, are investigated. These glasses show a glass transition temperature (T-g) above the stability limit, indicated by the Adiabatic Nucleation Model (ANM). This effect has to be so because, other-wise, when cooled, these undercooled liquids would crystallize by generalized nucleation near the stability limit and no T-g could be observed. This shows that Se1-yTey glasses for Y < 0.5 are structurally stable. Limiting cases are pure Te and Se50Te50, which have T'(g)'s on the stability limit. Pure amorphous Te has to be obtained by fast quenching techniques, where the effective (fast quenching) T-g(*) is higher and Se50Te50 tends to crystallize easily. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying a new methodology to verify transmission line model performance - the equivalent impedance test

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to analyze a transmission line model used in electromagnetic transitory simulators, called equivalent impedance test. Initially the definition of equivalent impedance reference test is shown. Soon after this methodology is applied to a transmission line model, the Quasi-Modes model. The studies were accomplished in a hypothetical non-transposed three-phase transmission fine of 440 kV. The line length is 500 km, and it was modeled through cascades of pi-circuits (with 50 pi's circuits, each with 10 km length).

Pauli nonlocality in heavy-ion rainbow scattering: A further test of the folding model

Nonlocal interactions are an intrinsically quantum phenomenon. In this work we point out that, in the context of heavy ions, such interactions can be studied through the refractive elastic scattering of these systems at intermediate energies. We show that most of the observed energy dependence of the local equivalent bare potential arises from the exchange nonlocality. The nonlocality parameter extracted from the data was found to be very close to the one obtained from folding models. The effective mass of the colliding, heavy-ion, system was found to be close to the nucleon effective mass in nuclear matter.

A place preference test in the fish Nile tilapia

The Nile tilapia fish (Oreochromis niloticus) has a high potential to be used as a model in neuroscience studies. In the present study, the preference of the Nile tilapia between a gravel-enriched (GEE), a shelter-enriched (SEE) or a non-enriched (NEE) environment was determined, for developing a place preference model. Nile tilapia had an initial preference for GEE, but after 1 day of observation, the fish stabilized their frequency of visits among compartments. Hence, any stimulus motivating tilapia increase in compartment visiting indicates a positively reinforcing effect. This feature is very useful for the development of new behavioural paradigms for fish in tests using environmental discrimination, such as the conditioning place preference test. © 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Experimental analysis and adherence test of the electromagnetic zero-sequence blocking model

This paper reveals new contributions to the analysis and development of mitigating harmonic distortion devices. Considering the variety of sequential distribution of harmonic current, in the use of passive filters, one can point out the electromagnetic blocking device, which have received particular attention due to its robustness and low cost of installation. In this context, aiming the evaluation of the reliability of the results obtained through mathematical modeling, experimental tests are carried out using a low-power prototype, highlighting particular aspects related to its function as a zero-sequence harmonic blocking. © 2011 IEEE.