Statistical Procedure For Estimating Grey Seal Pup Production From A Single Census

The variable start and duration of the Grey seal breeding season makes the estimation of total pup production from a single census very difficult. Classifying the count into morphological age classes enables the form and timing of the birth rate curve and estimates of pup mortality rates to be elucidated. A simulation technique is described which enables the duration of each morphological stage to be determined from a series of such classified counts taken over one season. A further statistical technique uses these estimates to calculate the mean timing and duration of the breeding season from a single classified count taken from similar populations in subsequent years. This information allows total pup production to be calculated for any appropriate breeding colony. Some guidance is given as to the optimal timing of that single census which would yield the best estimate of production, although the precise date is not critical to the success of the technique. Results from single census estimates obtained in this way are compared with known production data from more detailed surveys for a number of different colonies.

A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.

Rapid tryptophan depletion improves decision-making cognition in healthy humans without affecting reversal learning or set shifting

Rapid tryptophan (Trp) depletion (RTD) has been reported to cause deterioration in the quality of decision making and impaired reversal learning, while leaving attentional set shifting relatively unimpaired. These findings have been attributed to a more powerful neuromodulatory effect of reduced 5-HT on ventral prefrontal cortex (PFC) than on dorsolateral PFC. In view of the limited number of reports, the aim of this study was to independently replicate these findings using the same test paradigms. Healthy human subjects without a personal or family history of affective disorder were assessed using a computerized decision making/gambling task and the CANTAB ID/ED attentional set-shifting task under Trp-depleted (n=17; nine males and eight females) or control (n=15; seven males and eight females) conditions, in a double-blind, randomized, parallel-group design. There was no significant effect of RTD on set shifting, reversal learning, risk taking, impulsivity, or subjective mood. However, RTD significantly altered decision making such that depleted subjects chose the more likely of two possible outcomes significantly more often than controls. This is in direct contrast to the previous report that subjects chose the more likely outcome significantly less often following RTD. In the terminology of that report, our result may be interpreted as improvement in the quality of decision making following RTD. This contrast between studies highlights the variability in the cognitive effects of RTD between apparently similar groups of healthy subjects, and suggests the need for future RTD studies to control for a range of personality, family history, and genetic factors that may be associated with 5-HT function.

Shifting Thresholds, Contested Meanings: Governance, Cross-border Co-operation and the Ulster Unionist Identity

Cross-border (North/South) co-operation between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland was an indelible feature of the form of governance provided by the Belfast Good Friday Agreement (1998). Previous efforts to establish North/South co-operation had all foundered but the establishment and initial operation of the Agreement's cross-border institutions proved to be uncontroversial. However, during its implementation, other areas of the Agreement gave Ulster unionists more pressing cause for concern. These areas of concern included the release of paramilitary prisoners, police reform, the 'decommissioning' of Irish Republican Army (IRA) weaponry, and the unionist perception that the 'Britishness of Northern Ireland' was being actively eroded. These concerns served to emphasise and strengthen political and cultural borders between communities at a regional and local level within Northern Ireland. They also threatened the pro-Agreement unionists' contestation of unionist ideological orthodoxy, a contestation that was undertaken in an attempt to adapt the Ulster unionist identity to the shifting thresholds of the state.

Shifting of the electron-capture-to-the-continuum peak in proton-helium collisions at 10 and 20 keV

A refined theoretical approach has been developed to study the double-differential cross sections (DDCS's) in proton-helium collisions as a function of the ratio of ionized electron velocity to the incident proton velocity. The refinement is done in the present coupled-channel calculation by introducing a continuum distorted wave in the final state coupled with discrete states including direct as well as charge transfer channels. It is confirmed that the electron-capture-to-the-continuum (ECC) peak is slightly shifted to a lower electron velocity than the equivelocity position. Comparing measurements and classical trajectory Monte Carlo (CTMC) calculations at 10 and 20 keV proton energies, excellent agreement of the ECC peak heights is achieved at both energies. However, a minor disagreement in the peak positions between the present calculation and the CTMC results is noted. A smooth behavior of the DDCS is found in the present calculation on both sides of the peak whereas the CTMC results show some oscillatory behavior particularly to the left of the peak, associated with the statistical nature of CTMC calculations.

Water requirements as a bottleneck in the reintroduction of European roe deer to the southern edge of its range

Success rates of reintroduction programs are low, often owing to a lack of knowledge of site-specific ecological requirements. A reintroduction program of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus (L., 1758)) in a dry Mediterranean region in Israel provides an opportunity to study the bottleneck effect of water requirements on a mesic-adapted species. Four does were hand-reared and released in a 10 ha site consisting of an early succession scrubland and a mature oak forest. We measured daily energy expenditure (DEE) and water turnover (WTO) using the doubly labeled water technique during summer and winter. DEE was similar in the summer and winter, but there was a significant difference in WTO and in the source of gained water. In winter, WTO was 3.3 L/day, of which 67% was obtained from vegetation. In summer, WTO dropped to 2.1 L/day, of which only 20% was obtained from the diet and 76% was gained from drinking. When the water source was moved to a nonpreferred habitat, drinking frequency dropped significantly, but water consumption remained constant. In a dry Mediterranean environment, availability of free water is both a physiological contraint and a behavioral constraint for roe deer. This study demonstrates the importance of physiological and behavioral feasibility studies for reintroduction programs.