FP01-5 Pregnancy loss and psychiatric disorders in young men and women : results from Australian longitudinal cohort study

Recent evidence has linked induced abortion with later adverse psychiatric outcomes in young women. Little is known about later adverse psychiatric outcomes in young men whose partners have fallen pregnant and either go on to have a child, have an abortion or miscarry. 1223 women and 1159 men, from an Austrailan cohort born between 1981 and 1984, were assessed at 21 years for psychiatric and substance misuse and lifetime pregnancy histories. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss (either miscarriage or abortion) had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis), and nearly twice the odds of an alcohol misuse compared to never pregnant women. Young men whose partner had an abortion, but not a miscarriage, had nearly twice the odds of cannabis disorder, illicit drug disorder, and mood disorder compared to men that had never fathered a pregnancy. Young women who have lost a pregnancy have an increased risk of developing alcohol or substance abuse in later life. Young men whose partner aborted a pregnancy only had an increased of substance abuse and mood disorder in later life. These findings add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that pregnancy loss per se increases the risk of a range of substance use disorders in young women. The findings for young men are novel and raise the possibility that the associations measured may be due to common unmeasured factors associated with early pregnancy in young people rather than pregnancy loss.

Factors associated with common mental disorders during the transition to adulthood : do emerging adults and ‘early starters’ differ? Findings from an Australian birth cohort study

Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.

Associations between physical activity and other health behaviors in a representative sample of US adolescents

OBJECTIVES This study examined the associations between physical activity and other health behaviors in a representative sample of US adolescents. METHODS In the 1990 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 11631 high school students provided information on physical activity; diet; substance use; and other negative health behaviors. Logistic regression analyses examined associations between physical activity and other health behaviors in a subset of 2652 high-active and 1641 low-active students. RESULTS Low activity was associated with cigarette smoking, marijuana use, lower fruit and vegetable consumption, greater television watching, failure to wear a seat belt, and low perception of academic performance. For consumption of fruit, television watching, and alcohol consumption, significant interactions were found with race/ethnicity or sex, suggesting that sociocultural factors may affect the relationships between physical activity and some health behaviors. CONCLUSIONS Low physical activity was associated with several other negative health behaviors in teenagers. Future studies should examine whether interventions for increasing physical activity in youth can be effective in reducing negative health behaviors.

Psycho-educational assessment of specific learning disabilities: Views and practices of Australian psychologists and guidance counsellors

This paper reports an investigation of the views and practices of 203 Australian psychologists and guidance counsellors with respect to psycho-educational assessment of students with Specific Learning Disabilities (SLDs). Results from an online survey indicated that practitioners draw upon a wide-range of theoretical perspectives when conceptualising and identifying SLDs, including both response to intervention and IQ – achievement discrepancy models. Intelligence tests (particularly the Wechsler scales) are commonly employed, with the main stated reasons for their use being ‘traditional’ perspectives (including IQ-achievement discrepancy-based definitions of SLDs), to exclude a diagnosis of intellectual disability, and to guide further assessment and intervention. In contrast participants reported using measures of academic achievement and tests of specific cognitive deficits known to predict SLDs (e.g., phonological awareness) relatively infrequently.

Perception of prescription medicine sample packs among Australian professional, government, industry, and consumer organizations, based on automated textual analysis of one-on-one interviews

Background Prescription medicine samples provided by pharmaceutical companies are predominantly newer and more expensive products. The range of samples provided to practices may not represent the drugs that the doctors desire to have available. Few studies have used a qualitative design to explore the reasons behind sample use. Objective The aim of this study was to explore the opinions of a variety of Australian key informants about prescription medicine samples, using a qualitative methodology. Methods Twenty-three organizations involved in quality use of medicines in Australia were identified, based on the authors' previous knowledge. Each organization was invited to nominate 1 or 2 representatives to participate in semistructured interviews utilizing seeding questions. Each interview was recorded and transcribed verbatim. Leximancer v2.25 text analysis software (Leximancer Pty Ltd., Jindalee, Queensland, Australia) was used for textual analysis. The top 10 concepts from each analysis group were interrogated back to the original transcript text to determine the main emergent opinions. Results A total of 18 key interviewees representing 16 organizations participated. Samples, patient, doctor, and medicines were the major concepts among general opinions about samples. The concept drug became more frequent and the concept companies appeared when marketing issues were discussed. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and cost were more prevalent in discussions about alternative sample distribution models, indicating interviewees were cognizant of budgetary implications. Key interviewee opinions added richness to the single-word concepts extracted by Leximancer. Conclusions Participants recognized that prescription medicine samples have an influence on quality use of medicines and play a role in the marketing of medicines. They also believed that alternative distribution systems for samples could provide benefits. The cost of a noncommercial system for distributing samples or starter packs was a concern. These data will be used to design further research investigating alternative models for distribution of samples.

The quik fix study : a randomised controlled trial of brief interventions for young people with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses accessing emergency department and crisis support care

Background: Alcohol is a major preventable cause of injury, disability and death in young people. Large numbers of young people with alcohol-related injuries and medical conditions present to hospital emergency departments (EDs). Access to brief, efficacious, accessible and cost effective treatment is an international health priority within this age group. While there is growing evidence for the efficacy of brief motivational interviewing (MI) for reducing alcohol use in young people, there is significant scope to increase its impact, and determine if it is the most efficacious and cost effective type of brief intervention available. The efficacy of personality-targeted interventions (PIs) for alcohol misuse delivered individually to young people is yet to be determined or compared to MI, despite growing evidence for school-based PIs. This study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial comparing the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of telephone-delivered MI, PI and an Assessment Feedback/Information (AF/I) only control for reducing alcohol use and related harm in young people. Methods/design: Participants will be 390 young people aged 16 to 25 years presenting to a crisis support service or ED with alcohol-related injuries and illnesses (including severe alcohol intoxication). This single blinded superiority trial randomized young people to (i) 2 sessions of MI; (ii) 2 sessions of a new PI or (iii) a 1 session AF/I only control. Participants are reassessed at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary outcomes of alcohol use and related problems and secondary outcomes of mental health symptoms, functioning, severity of problematic alcohol use, alcohol injuries, alcohol-related knowledge, coping self-efficacy to resist using alcohol, and cost effectiveness. Discussion: This study will identify the most efficacious and cost-effective telephone-delivered brief intervention for reducing alcohol misuse and related problems in young people presenting to crisis support services or EDs. We expect efficacy will be greatest for PI, followed by MI, and then AF/I at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months on the primary and secondary outcome variables. Telephone-delivered brief interventions could provide a youth-friendly, accessible, efficacious, cost-effective and easily disseminated treatment for addressing the significant public health issue of alcohol misuse and related harm in young people. Trial registration: This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000108718.

Motivational interventions may have greater sustained impact if they trained imagery-based self-management

McCambridge & Rollnick [1] argue that increased benefits from brief motivational interventions (MIs) for alcohol abuse may be obtained if they addressed patients’ con- cerns more directly, especially in severe dependence and primary care. We agree, but take the idea a step further. Recent research on comorbidity has illustrated the power of simultaneously addressing multiple issues in an integrated manner, especially when these changes have synergistic effects (as typically occurs with psycho- sis and substance use [2]). Integrated MI for comorbidity can even be used productively in a single-session format [3]. This idea may have wider application. Recent work in remote Indigenous Australian communities has highlighted the benefits of a broad-ranging discussion of key relationships, activities and resources that confer strength, as well as aspects that worry them or cause dissatisfaction [4]. If excessive drinking is present, its impact on other life areas is reviewed, as in standard MI. However, it is considered alongside other highly valued goals. While the approach has demonstrated effects on both alcohol use and mental health [5], its impact is restricted only by the range of goals that are selected...

Offending behaviour and mental illness : characteristics of a mental health court liaison service

This paper begins with a brief review of recent literature about relationships between offending behaviour and mental illness, classifying studies by the settings within which they occurred. The establishment and role of a mental health court liaison (MHCL) service is then described, together with findings from a 3-year service audit, including an examination of relationships between clients’ characteristics and offence profiles, and comparisons with regional offence data. During the audit period, 971 clients (767 males, 204 females) were referred to the service, comprising 1139 service episodes, 35.5% of which involved a comorbid substance use diagnosis. The pattern of offences for MHCL clients was reasonably similar to the regional offence data, except that among MHCL clients there were proportionately more offences against justice procedures (e.g., breaches of apprehended violence orders [AVOs]) and fewer driving offences and “other offences”. Additionally, male MHCL clients had proportionately more malicious damage and robbery offences and lower rates of offensive behaviour and drug offences. A range of service and research issues is also discussed. Overall, the new service appears to have forged more effective links between the mental health and criminal justice systems.

Environmental contributions to childhood cancers

Recent increases in incidence of childhood cancers cannot be explained by genetic factors. Identifying the environmental risk factors that may explain increases in cancer incidence is an important step to reduce the overall burden of disease. The risk factors for which the most evidence exists include ionising radiation, ultraviolet radiation and chemicals such as benzene and pesticides, biological agents as well as parental smoking and parental substance use. Regarding the link between exposure to non-ionising radiation and development of cancer, the evidence was limited. Maternal vitamin supplementation may reduce the risk of cancer in offspring. Environmental exposures encountered during development and early childhood may be even more important contributors to the risk of cancer than exposures in adulthood and the early developmental period presents an important opportunity for cancer prevention.

Combined pharmacotherapy and psychological therapies for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)

BACKGROUND PTSD is an anxiety disorder related to exposure to a severe psychological trauma. Symptoms include re-experiencing the event, avoidance and arousal as well as distress and impairment resulting from these symptoms.Guidelines suggest a combination of both psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy may enhance treatment response, especially in those with more severe PTSD or in those who have not responded to either intervention alone. OBJECTIVES To assess whether the combination of psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy provides a more efficacious treatment for PTSD than either of these interventions delivered separately. SEARCH STRATEGY Searches were conducted on the trial registers kept by the CCDAN group (CCDANCTR-Studies and CCDANCTR-References) to June 2010. The reference sections of included studies and several conference abstracts were also scanned. SELECTION CRITERIA Patients of any age or gender, with chronic or recent onset PTSD arising from any type of event relevant to the diagnostic criteria were included. A combination of any psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy was included and compared to wait list, placebo, standard treatment or either intervention alone. The primary outcome was change in total PTSD symptom severity. Other outcomes included changes in functioning, depression and anxiety symptoms, suicide attempts, substance use, withdrawal and cost. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two or three review authors independently selected trials, assessed their 'risk of bias' and extracted trial and outcome data. We used a fixed-effect model for meta-analysis. The relative risk was used to summarise dichotomous outcomes and the mean difference and standardised mean difference were used to summarise continuous measures. MAIN RESULTS Four trials were eligible for inclusion, one of these trials (n =24) was on children and adolescents. All used an SSRI and prolonged exposure or a cognitive behavioural intervention. Two trials compared combination treatment with pharmacological treatment and two compared combination treatment with psychological treatment. Only two trials reported a total PTSD symptom score and these data could not be combined. There was no strong evidence to show if there were differences between the group receiving combined interventions compared to the group receiving psychological therapy (mean difference 2.44, 95% CI -2.87, 7.35 one study, n=65) or pharmacotherapy (mean difference -4.70, 95% CI -10.84 to 1.44; one study, n = 25). Trialists reported no significant differences between combination and single intervention groups in the other two studies. There were very little data reported for other outcomes, and in no case were significant differences reported. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS There is not enough evidence available to support or refute the effectiveness of combined psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy compared to either of these interventions alone. Further large randomised controlled trials are urgently required.

Students’ well-being and social connections

Description of Workshop/Poster Presentation This presentation will showcase CORE Connections – ‘Creating Opportunities for Resilience and Engagement’ – which is a whole-school approach to mental health promotion. While initially designed to prevent adolescent depression and substance abuse, current thinking suggests that competency enhancement (e.g., autonomy, competence, supportive networks) more widely improves students’ well-being, educational engagement, and learning outcomes. In the presentation, we will provide an overview of the CORE project, describe the CORE intervention, which is conceptualized as a dynamic and penetrating process of social practices, present some preliminary findings from the pilot phase of CORE, and conclude our presentation with an interactive section with the participants. This project will highlight a wellness focus that addresses social engagement within whole school cultures. Purpose of the Presentation Student mental and physical well-being has gained increasing attention. Our presentation will introduce the CORE project, which has a potential to decrease student depression, anxiety, and substance use, and to increase student self-esteem and learning outcomes. In this vein, our presentation will raise the public awareness of the salient role of social connection in student well-being. Specifically, a group of presenters will discuss the impact of social connection on students’ anxiety, mathematics achievement, and perceived racial discrimination. • We will present participants with an alternative way to conceptualize and approach mental health promotion within a school context. In contrast to prescribed programs that are commonly used in today’s schools, CORE is a whole-school approach that is flexibly integrated into all aspects of the classroom and school environment. Our aim is to illustrate the intervention principles of CORE while highlighting examples of mental health outcomes/transformation. • Underutilized in mental health promotion research, social network analysis provides critical information in understanding relationships between social cohesion (e.g., a student’s connectedness to others) and mental health outcomes. This session will showcase how focusing on and strengthening social connections in and out of school can contribute to student well-being, achievement, and mental health. Educational Objectives By the end of the presentation, participants will • obtain a general overview of the CORE program, • understand how psychological health and school performance relate to student well-being, • and understand how social connections in and out of school can contribute to student well-being. Interactive / Participatory Component We will invite audience members to discuss inhibitors and contributors to student well-being and the best ways for schools to help students feel safe, connected, and valued. Presentation Key Points • Overview of the CORE project • Theorization of social connection • Some empirical studies emerging from CORE • Presenter-audience interaction Evidence of Relevance and Utility to Participants Potential participants are adults with significant relationships with students, either as family members, community neighbors, educators, scholars, service providers, or policy makers. Our presentation will inspire these significant adults to construct a welcoming society to help improve student well-being.

If you don’t know, you can’t help: A practical guide for alcohol and other drug screening in psychological services

Alcohol is implicated in over 60 diseases and injuries and accounted for 6.2 per cent of all male deaths globally in 2004 (WHO, 2011). Alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse causes significant individual, family and social harms at all age levels and across all socioeconomic groups. These may result from intoxication (e.g., overdose, vulnerability to physical injury/trauma or death, consequences of impulsive behaviour, aggression and driving under the influence) and longer-term consequences (e.g., alcohol or drug-related brain injury, cardiovascular and liver diseases, blood borne viruses e.g., Chikritzhs et al., 2003, Roxburgh et al., 2013). Mental health problems may be triggered or exacerbated, and family breakdown, poor self-esteem, legal issues and lack of community engagement may also be evident. Despite the prevalence of substance use disorders and evident consequences for the individual, family and wider community, it would seem that health professionals, including psychologists, are reluctant to ask about substance use.

We know this: How to apply what you already know to treat alcohol and other drug problems

Background Implementing effective AOD supports and treatments into our daily practice can occur via a range of strategies. While specialist treatments exclusively targeting pathways toward substance reduction are an option, it is often not within the scope of many psychologists working in generalist or tertiary mental health settings. Regardless of the perceived barriers for integrating AOD practice into our work, there are key principles and approaches that can be adopted to improve the outcomes for many clients. Aim Irrespective of the client’s perceived need to address AOD issues, significant substance use will impact on the development, prognosis and treatment of most mental health conditions. Embedding AOD practice across our clinical work requires an openness to consider evidence-based approaches for all levels of substance use. Method This presentation will outline a series of approaches that all practitioners can adopt, based on the principles of harm reduction and empowerment of client’s choice. An emphasis will be made toward outlining approaches that are consistent with best practice, easily accessible and do not require extensive resources to embed. Conclusion Applying effective AOD treatments as a standard treatment component is achievable for all practitioners and is essential for achieving better outcomes for a high proportion of the community accessing treatment from psychologists.

Using quantitative wastewater analysis to measure daily usage of conventional and emerging illicit drugs at an annual music festival

Introduction and Aims Wastewater analysis provides a non-intrusive way of measuring drug use within a population. We used this approach to determine daily use of conventional illicit drugs [cannabis, cocaine, methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA)] and emerging illicit psychostimulants (benzylpiperazine, mephedrone and methylone) in two consecutive years (2010 and 2011) at an annual music festival. Design and Methods Daily composite wastewater samples, representative of the festival, were collected from the on-site wastewater treatment plant and analysed for drug metabolites. Data over 2 years were compared using Wilcoxon matched-pair test. Data from 2010 festival were compared with data collected at the same time from a nearby urban community using equivalent methods. Results Conventional illicit drugs were detected in all samples whereas emerging illicit psychostimulants were found only on specific days. The estimated per capita consumption of MDMA, cocaine and cannabis was similar between the two festival years. Statistically significant (P < 0.05; Z = −2.0–2.2) decreases were observed in use of methamphetamine and one emerging illicit psychostimulant (benzyl piperazine). Only consumption of MDMA was elevated at the festival compared with the nearby urban community. Discussion and Conclusions Rates of substance use at this festival remained relatively consistent over two monitoring years. Compared with the urban community, drug use among festival goers was only elevated for MDMA, confirming its popularity in music settings. Our study demonstrated that wastewater analysis can objectively capture changes in substance use at a music setting without raising major ethical issues. It would potentially allow effective assessments of drug prevention strategies in such settings in the future.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.