Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease.

Ipsilateral corticocortical projections to the primary and middle temporal visual areas of the primate cerebral cortex: area-specific variations in the morphology of connectionally identified pyramidal cells

We quantified the morphology of over 350 pyramidal neurons with identified ipsilateral corticocortical projections to the primary (V1) and middle temporal (MT) visual areas of the marmoset monkey, following intracellular injection of Lucifer Yellow into retrogradely labelled cells. Paralleling the results of studies in which randomly sampled pyramidal cells were injected, we found that the size of the basal dendritic tree of connectionally identified cells differed between cortical areas, as did the branching complexity and spine density. We found no systematic relationship between dendritic tree structure and axon target or length. Instead, the size of the basal dendritic tree increased roughly in relation to increasing distance from the occipital pole, irrespective of the length of the connection or the cortical layer in which the neurons were located. For example, cells in the second visual area had some of the smallest and least complex dendritic trees irrespective of whether they projected to V1 or MT, while those in the dorsolateral area (DL) were among the largest and most complex. We also observed that systematic differences in spine number were more marked among V1-projecting cells than MT-projecting cells. These data demonstrate that the previously documented systematic differences in pyramidal cell morphology between areas cannot simply be attributed to variable proportions of neurons projecting to different targets, in the various areas. Moreover, they suggest that mechanisms intrinsic to the area in which neurons are located are strong determinants of basal dendritic field structure.

Is the clustering of neurofibrillary tangles in Alzheimer's patients related to the cells of origin of specific cortico-cortical projections?

The spatial pattern of cellular neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) was studied in the supra- and infragranular layers of various cortical regions in cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The objective was to test the hypothesis that NFT formation was associated with the cells of origin of specific cortico-cortical projections. The novel feature of the study was that pattern analysis enabled the dimension and spacing of NFT clusters along the cortical ribbon to be estimated. In the majority of brain regions studied, NFT occurred in clusters of neurons which were regularly spaced along the cortical strip. This pattern is consistent with the predicted distribution of the cells of origin of specific cortico-cortico projections. Mean NFT cluster size varied from 250 to > 12800 microns in different cortical tissues suggesting either variation in the size of the cell clusters or a dynamic process in the development of NFT in relation to these cell clusters. The formation of NFT in cell clusters which may give rise to the feed-forward and feed-back cortico-cortical projections suggests a possible route of spread of NFT pathology in AD between cortical regions and from the cortex to subcortical areas.

Does the neurodegeneration of Alzheimer’s disease spread between visual cortical regions B17 and B18 via the feedforward or feedback short cortico-cortical projections?

The laminar distribution of senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) was studied in areas B17 and B18 of the visual cortex in 18 cases of Alzheimer’s disease which varied in disease onset and duration. The objective was to test the hypothesis that SP and NFT could spread via either the feedforward or feedback short cortico-cortical projections. In area B17, the mean density of SP and NFT reached a maximum in lamina III and in laminae II and III respectively. In B18, mean SP density was maximal in laminae III and IV and NFT density in laminae II and III. No significant correlations were observed in any cortical lamina between the density of SP and patient age. However, the density of NFT in laminae III, IV and VI in B18 was negatively correlated with patient age. In addition, in B18, the density of SP in lamina II and lamina V was negatively correlated with disease duration and disease onset respectively. Although these results suggest that SP and NFT might spread between B17 and B18 via the feedforward short cortico-cortical projections, it is also possible that the longer cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections may be involved.

Generating More Boundary Elements of Subset Projections

Composition problem is considered for partition constrained vertex subsets of n dimensional unit cube E^n . Generating numerical characteristics of E^n subsets partitions is considered by means of the same characteristics in 1 − n dimensional unit cube, and construction of corresponding subsets is given for a special particular case. Using pairs of lower layer characteristic vectors for E^(1-n) more characteristic vectors for E^n are composed which are boundary from one side, and which take part in practical recognition of validness of a given candidate vector of partitions.

Theoretical investigations of intercellular communication in the microcirculation: Conducted responses, myoendothelial projections and endothelium derived hyperpolarizing factor

The contractile state of microcirculatory vessels is a major determinant of the blood pressure of the whole systemic circulation. Continuous bi-directional communication exists between the endothelial cells (ECs) and smooth muscle cells (SMCs) that regulates calcium (Ca2+) dynamics in these cells. This study presents theoretical approaches to understand some of the important and currently unresolved microcirculatory phenomena. ^ Agonist induced events at local sites have been shown to spread long distances in the microcirculation. We have developed a multicellular computational model by integrating detailed single EC and SMC models with gap junction and nitric oxide (NO) coupling to understand the mechanisms behind this effect. Simulations suggest that spreading vasodilation mainly occurs through Ca 2+ independent passive conduction of hyperpolarization in RMAs. Model predicts a superior role for intercellular diffusion of inositol (1,4,5)-trisphosphate (IP3) than Ca2+ in modulating the spreading response. ^ Endothelial derived signals are initiated even during vasoconstriction of stimulated SMCs by the movement of Ca2+ and/or IP3 into the EC which provide hyperpolarizing feedback to SMCs to counter the ongoing constriction. Myoendothelial projections (MPs) present in the ECs have been recently proposed to play a role in myoendothelial feedback. We have developed two models using compartmental and 2D finite element methods to examine the role of these MPs by adding a sub compartment in the EC to simulate MP with localization of intermediate conductance calcium activated potassium channels (IKCa) and IP3 receptors (IP 3R). Both models predicted IP3 mediated high Ca2+ gradients in the MP after SMC stimulation with limited global spread. This Ca 2+ transient generated a hyperpolarizing feedback of ∼ 2–3mV. ^ Endothelium derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF) is the dominant form of endothelial control of SMC constriction in the microcirculation. A number of factors have been proposed for the role of EDHF but no single pathway is agreed upon. We have examined the potential of myoendothelial gap junctions (MEGJs) and potassium (K+) accumulation as EDHF using two models (compartmental and 2D finite element). An extra compartment is added in SMC to simulate micro domains (MD) which have NaKα2 isoform sodium potassium pumps. Simulations predict that MEGJ coupling is much stronger in producing EDHF than alone K+ accumulation. On the contrary, K+ accumulation can alter other important parameters (EC V m, IKCa current) and inhibit its own release as well as EDHF conduction via MEGJs. The models developed in this study are essential building blocks for future models and provide important insights to the current understanding of myoendothelial feedback and EDHF.^

Accuracy of Hotel Feasibility Study Projections

Hotel feasibility studies are critical in the determination of hotel construction, sales and refinancing. Discrepancies have been reported between forecasted results and actual operating results. The author, with funding provided by the Hilton corporation, examines whether such studies under- state or overstate occupancy, average rate, and net income.

Sea Level Rise Map Projections

A presentation of maps illustrating the percentage of land surface remaining at varying sea level rise from 1ft - 12ft in Miami-Dade County.

Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Étude des projections axonales sérotoninergiques dans un modèle murin de la maladie de Parkinson et des dyskinésies induites par la lévodopa

OBJECTIFS: La libération de dopamine par les afférences à sérotonine (5-HT) du striatum constitue un déterminant pré-synaptique important des dyskinésies induites par la L-Dopa (DILs), un effet délétère du traitement pharmacologique de la maladie de Parkinson. En effet, les axones 5-HT seraient en mesure de libérer de façon non-physiologique de la dopamine lorsque la L-Dopa est administrée au patient, contribuant ainsi à l’expression des DILs. Certaines afférences striatales 5-HT contiennent un transporteur vésiculaire du glutamate (VGluT3) et nous croyons que sa présence puisse avoir un effet synergique sur la libération de dopamine. L’objectif général de ce mémoire est donc d’évaluer la quantité de VGluT3 présent au sein des axones 5-HT et de mesurer son implication dans l’expression des DILs. MÉTHODES : Dix-huit souris C57/Bl6 ont été séparées en trois groupes expérimentaux. Douze souris ont reçu une injection intracérébrale de 6- hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) dans le faisceau prosencéphalique médian afin de léser les afférences dopaminergiques du striatum. Six souris lésées ont reçu des injections systémiques de L-Dopa (12 jours, 1 fois/jour). Six autres souris ont reçu une injection intracérébrale du véhicule afin de servir de contrôle. La sévérité des mouvements involontaires anormaux induits par la L-Dopa (équivalent des dyskinésies) a été quantifiée selon une échelle reconnue. Un double marquage en immunofluorescence pour le transporteur membranaire de la 5-HT (SERT) et le VGluT3 a permis d’évaluer la densité des varicosités SERT+ et SERT+/VGluT3+ dans le striatum dorsal et de comparer ces données entre les trois groupes expérimentaux. RÉSULTATS: Chez les trois groupes de souris, un faible pourcentage des varicosités axonales 5-HT sont également VGluT3+. Ces varicosités doublement marquées sont souvent retrouvées sur une même branche axonale. Aucune différence significative n’a été observée entre les trois groupes expérimentaux en ce qui a trait à la proportion de varicosités SERT+ qui contiennent le VGluT3+. CONCLUSION: Nos données expérimentales ne nous permettent pas de conclure que la densité des varicosités axonales SERT+ ou SERT+/VGluT3+ au sein du striatum dorsal varie en fonction de la sévérité des mouvements involontaires anormaux induits par l’administration de L-Dopa.