How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.

The Nine Circles of Surveillance Hell: An Institutional View of Information Flows and Information Threats in Libraries

In the past few years, libraries have started to design public programs that educate patrons about different tools and techniques to protect personal privacy. But do end user solutions provide adequate safeguards against surveillance by corporate and government actors? What does a comprehensive plan for privacy entail in order that libraries live up to their privacy values? In this paper, the authors discuss the complexity of surveillance architecture that the library institution might confront when seeking to defend the privacy rights of patrons. This architecture consists of three main parts: physical or material aspects, logical characteristics, and social factors of information and communication flows in the library setting. For each category, the authors will present short case studies that are culled from practitioner experience, research, and public discourse. The case studies probe the challenges faced by the library—not only when making hardware and software choices, but also choices related to staffing and program design. The paper shows that privacy choices intersect not only with free speech and chilling effects, but also with questions that concern intellectual property, organizational development, civic engagement, technological innovation, public infrastructure, and more. The paper ends with discussion of what libraries will require in order to sustain and improve efforts to serve as stewards of privacy in the 21st century.

Caribbean forum: Shaping a sustainable development agenda to address the Caribbean reality in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography.

Higher education in evening courses in Brazil: history, growth and public policies at the beginning of the XXI Century

There are three distinct and complementary objectives in this article in order to clarify the higher education outline in Brazil, specifically evening courses (classes are held on weekdays, generally from 7:00 pm to 10:30 pm) and thesecurrent sector policies. The first objective is to present a short historical overview on the establishment of evening courses in Brazil, including those in the higher education level, occurred on the middle of last century. The second objective is to demonstrate the growth of evening higher education in Brazil, considering that in 1998, of the 2.1 million college enrollments, 55.3% were enrolled in evening courses; in 2010, twelve years later, of the 5.4 million students enrolled, there were 63.5% enrolled in evening courses. This expansion is due to the growing need of many students who must work while attending college, to defray costs of the study as well as personal and family costs. The reality of the working student is hostile considering external factors, such as transport problems, public security and lack of legislation for flexible working hours. The third objective is to discuss current public policies to expand eveningopenings in public institutions which represent nowadays only 16.1% of the 3.4 million enrollments for evening classes, including federal (6.8%), state (7.0%) and municipal (2.3%) institutions. In the third objective it is included the discussion of programs for scholarships and tuition loans. The methodology applied was to rescue historical information on the establishment and the expansion of evening courses in Brazil, analyzing the current general Brazilian policies and the specific ones from the State of São Paulo. The research results pointed to the importance of federal programs for scholarships and tuition loans for students from private institutions such as the 1,382,484 scholarships since 2004 (PROUNI Program) and the 847,000 tuition loans since 1999 (FIES Program). Important steps have been made by the Brazilian government. Considering that there are 3,987,424 enrollments in private institutions, the effectiveness of the programs for scholarships and tuition loans is still insufficient to meet the universal benefits for the student’s needs. Evening courses became the real instrument of social inclusion for many Brazilian youths and must be expanded quantitatively and qualitatively, with aggressive public policies, including also, scholarships and tuition loans.

Private and Public Dental Care in the City of Sao Paulo in the First Decade of the XXI Century

Two concomitant movements occur in the first decade of the XXI century within the private and public dental services in Brazil: the entrance of oral health on the agenda of political priorities of the federal government and the vigorous growth of additional dental care. We analyzed the occurrence of these phenomena in the city of Sao Paulo, by seeking information in official documents and electronic databases in the Municipality of Sao Paulo, the Ministry of Health and National Health Agency (ANS), and also in scientific literature. During the studied period - January 2000 to December 2009 - and with basis on indicators such as coverage of First Consultation Program and Dental coverage Population Potential, percentages were found that characterize low public assistance and a situation far short of the constitutional principle of universal access to dental care. The growing number of beneficiaries of additional services through exclusively dental coverage insurance plans and other types of private insurance plans in the same period was significant, accounting for a major expansion of population coverage in this mode of care. It was found that, compared to the overall national framework, the city of Sao Paulo offers poor access to public dental care, with reduced supply of services to adults and aged people. Furthermore, considering the limitations of market additional services to provide dental care to all Brazilians, it reinforces the need for continuity and expansion of Brasil Sorridente, which is the programmatic expression of the National Oral Health Politics.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Increasing intercultural competence and tolerance in multicultural schools: A Training Program and its effectiveness

This study reports the implementation of a Training of Intercultural Competence and Tolerance (TICT) for upper-secondary school students and the empirical evaluation of its effectiveness. The TICT program was developed to counteract increasing interethnic conflicts in the North Caucasus Federal District of Russia. It is based on the theoretical and empirical framework of social psychology and cross-cultural psychology. The training effectiveness was assessed by conducting pre- and post-surveys among the training participants. The results indicate that TICT contributes to the development of a positive ethnic identity and the formation of a civic identity among the participating youth. It also increases their optimism regarding the future of interethnic relations in Russia and the subjective level of intercultural competence of majority group youth towards minority cultures. Thus, the evaluation of the training effectiveness of the TICT has shown that the aims of the training have been achieved to a large extent and that the Training of Intercultural Competence and Tolerance can be effectively used to prevent interethnic conflicts and promote interethnic relations in multicultural schools. Suggestions for the practical implementation of the TICT as well as for future research on the training's effectiveness are discussed.

"I understood what she meant when she said '21st century medicine'": A qualitative analysis of patient responses for plans for colorectal cancer screening following a recommendation from their physician

Although physician recommendation has been significantly associated with colorectal cancer screening (CRCS), it still does not motivate all patients to get CRCS. Although improved physician recommendation for CRCS has been shown to increase patient CRCS screening, questions remain about what elements of that discussion may lead to screening. The objective of this study is to describe patients' perceptions and interpretations about their physician's recommendation for CRCS during their annual wellness exam. A subset of patients (n=51) participating in a supplement study of a behavioral intervention trial designed to increase CRCS completed a follow-up, open-ended interview two to four weeks after their annual wellness visit. Using qualitative methods, transcripts of these interviews were analyzed. Findings suggest that most patients would follow their physician's recommendation for CRCS despite not engaging in much discussion. Patients may refrain from CRCS discussion because of a commitment to CRCS, awareness of screening guidelines, and trust in physician's honesty and beneficence. Yet many patients left their wellness exams with questions, refraining because of future plans to consult with their physicians, perceived time constraints or a lack of a patient-physician relationship. If patients are leaving their wellness exams with unanswered questions, interventions should prepare physicians for patient reticence, teaching physicians how to assure patients that CRCS is a primary care activity where all questions and concerns, including cost and scheduling, may be resolved.^

The XXI century guidance and its social responsibility

El presente trabajo tiene como finalidad considerar la orientación del siglo XXI en Venezuela como una disciplina con un alto compromiso social. Como programa, debe, hoy día, redefinirse con el objeto de impulsar propuestas conducentes a la inclusión de todas aquellas personas, que tradicionalmente han sido excluidas por su raza, etnia, género y/o discapacidad física y que como praxis social esté dirigida a la facilitación de los procesos de desarrollo humano en las dimensiones del Ser, Convivir, Servir, Conocer y Hacer, en el contexto personal, familiar y comunitario a lo largo del continuo del ciclo vital. L as competencias adquiridas a través de los procesos de orientación, son determinantes para proporcionar los medios a las ciudadanas y los ciudadanos para gestionar su propio desarrollo y el de su comunidad Se plantea la necesidad de un cambio de paradigma que deje atrás la clásica postura de un orientador que ayuda al orientado, desde el que conoce, el que tiene experiencia. Se sugiere más bien una relación de orientación intersubjetiva. Por otra parte, se habla de la necesidad de fortalecer el capital social de los espacios que contextualizan el proceso orientador. Se explican además, los alcances del Sistema Nacional de Orientación.

The XXI century guidance and its social responsibility

El presente trabajo tiene como finalidad considerar la orientación del siglo XXI en Venezuela como una disciplina con un alto compromiso social. Como programa, debe, hoy día, redefinirse con el objeto de impulsar propuestas conducentes a la inclusión de todas aquellas personas, que tradicionalmente han sido excluidas por su raza, etnia, género y/o discapacidad física y que como praxis social esté dirigida a la facilitación de los procesos de desarrollo humano en las dimensiones del Ser, Convivir, Servir, Conocer y Hacer, en el contexto personal, familiar y comunitario a lo largo del continuo del ciclo vital. L as competencias adquiridas a través de los procesos de orientación, son determinantes para proporcionar los medios a las ciudadanas y los ciudadanos para gestionar su propio desarrollo y el de su comunidad Se plantea la necesidad de un cambio de paradigma que deje atrás la clásica postura de un orientador que ayuda al orientado, desde el que conoce, el que tiene experiencia. Se sugiere más bien una relación de orientación intersubjetiva. Por otra parte, se habla de la necesidad de fortalecer el capital social de los espacios que contextualizan el proceso orientador. Se explican además, los alcances del Sistema Nacional de Orientación.

The XXI century guidance and its social responsibility

El presente trabajo tiene como finalidad considerar la orientación del siglo XXI en Venezuela como una disciplina con un alto compromiso social. Como programa, debe, hoy día, redefinirse con el objeto de impulsar propuestas conducentes a la inclusión de todas aquellas personas, que tradicionalmente han sido excluidas por su raza, etnia, género y/o discapacidad física y que como praxis social esté dirigida a la facilitación de los procesos de desarrollo humano en las dimensiones del Ser, Convivir, Servir, Conocer y Hacer, en el contexto personal, familiar y comunitario a lo largo del continuo del ciclo vital. L as competencias adquiridas a través de los procesos de orientación, son determinantes para proporcionar los medios a las ciudadanas y los ciudadanos para gestionar su propio desarrollo y el de su comunidad Se plantea la necesidad de un cambio de paradigma que deje atrás la clásica postura de un orientador que ayuda al orientado, desde el que conoce, el que tiene experiencia. Se sugiere más bien una relación de orientación intersubjetiva. Por otra parte, se habla de la necesidad de fortalecer el capital social de los espacios que contextualizan el proceso orientador. Se explican además, los alcances del Sistema Nacional de Orientación.

Perspectives of Teachers Regarding the Integration of Mathematics and Science at the Secondary School Level

The integration of mathematics and science in secondary schools in the 21st century continues to be an important topic of practice and research. The purpose of my research study, which builds on studies by Frykholm and Glasson (2005) and Berlin and White (2010), is to explore the potential constraints and benefits of integrating mathematics and science in Ontario secondary schools based on the perspectives of in-service and pre-service teachers with various math and/or science backgrounds. A qualitative and quantitative research design with an exploratory approach was used. The qualitative data was collected from a sample of 12 in-service teachers with various math and/or science backgrounds recruited from two school boards in Eastern Ontario. The quantitative and some qualitative data was collected from a sample of 81 pre-service teachers from the Queen’s University Bachelor of Education (B.Ed) program. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the in-service teachers while a survey and a focus group was conducted with the pre-service teachers. Once the data was collected, the qualitative data were abductively analyzed. For the quantitative data, descriptive and inferential statistics (one-way ANOVAs and Pearson Chi Square analyses) were calculated to examine perspectives of teachers regardless of teaching background and to compare groups of teachers based on teaching background. The findings of this study suggest that in-service and pre-service teachers have a positive attitude towards the integration of math and science and view it as valuable to student learning and success. The pre-service teachers viewed the integration as easy and did not express concerns to this integration. On the other hand, the in-service teachers highlighted concerns and challenges such as resources, scheduling, and time constraints. My results illustrate when teachers perceive it is valuable to integrate math and science and which aspects of the classroom benefit best from the integration. Furthermore, the results highlight barriers and possible solutions to better the integration of math and science. In addition to the benefits and constraints of integration, my results illustrate why some teachers may opt out of integrating math and science and the different strategies teachers have incorporated to integrate math and science in their classroom.

Confidentiala "Mode 3" Systems Approach for Knowledge Creation, Diffusion and Use: Towards a 21st Century Fractal Innovation Ecosystem. ACES Working Paper (Report) No. 4, 2007

"Mode 3" allows and emphasizes the co-existence and co-evolution of different knowledge and innovation paradigms: the competitiveness and superiority of a knowledge system is highly determined by its adaptive capacity to combine and integrate different knowledge and innovation modes via co-evolution, co-specialization and coopetition [sic] of knowledge stock and flow dynamics. What results is an emerging fractal knowledge and innovation ecosystem, well-configured for the knowledge economy and society. The intrinsic litmus test of the capacity of such an ecosystem to survive and prosper in the context of continually glocalizing [sic] and intensifying competition represents the ultimate competitiveness benchmark with regards to the robustness and quality of the ecosystem's knowledge and innovation architecture and topology.