887 resultados para probability of occurrence
Resumo:
The purpose of the present research was to investigate the effects of polymorphisms of luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR) and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) genes, evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism in European-Zebu composite beef heifers from six different breed compositions. The polymorphism site analysis from digestion with HhaI and AluI restriction endonucleases allowed the genotype identification for LHR (TT, CT and CC) and FSHR (GG, CG and CC) genes. A high frequency of heterozygous animals was recorded in all breed compositions for both genes, except in two compositions for LHR. The probability of pregnancy (PP) at first breeding was used to evaluate the polymorphism effect on sexual precocity. The PP was analyzed as a binary trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. Heterozygous heifers showed a higher pregnancy rate (67 and 66% for LHR and FSHR genes, respectively), but no significant effects were observed for the genes studied (P=0.9188 and 0.8831 for LHR and FSHR, respectively) on the PP. These results do not justify the inclusion of LHR and FSHR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers in selection programs for sexual precocity in beef heifers. Nevertheless, these markers make possible the genotype characterization and may be used in additional studies to evaluate the genetic structure in other bovine populations.
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Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts.
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In this work we investigate knowledge acquisition as performed by multiple agents interacting as they infer, under the presence of observation errors, respective models of a complex system. We focus the specific case in which, at each time step, each agent takes into account its current observation as well as the average of the models of its neighbors. The agents are connected by a network of interaction of Erdos-Renyi or Barabasi-Albert type. First, we investigate situations in which one of the agents has a different probability of observation error (higher or lower). It is shown that the influence of this special agent over the quality of the models inferred by the rest of the network can be substantial, varying linearly with the respective degree of the agent with different estimation error. In case the degree of this agent is taken as a respective fitness parameter, the effect of the different estimation error is even more pronounced, becoming superlinear. To complement our analysis, we provide the analytical solution of the overall performance of the system. We also investigate the knowledge acquisition dynamic when the agents are grouped into communities. We verify that the inclusion of edges between agents (within a community) having higher probability of observation error promotes the loss of quality in the estimation of the agents in the other communities.
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We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.
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Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.
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Stingless bees play an important ecological role as pollinators of many wild plant species in the tropics and have significant potential for the pollination of agricultural crops. Nevertheless, conservation efforts as well as commercial breeding programmes require better guidelines on the amount of genetic variation that is needed to maintain viable populations. In this context, we carried out a long-term genetic study on the stingless bee Melipona scutellaris to evaluate the population viability consequences of prolonged breeding from a small number of founder colonies. In particular, it was artificially imposed a genetic bottleneck by setting up a population starting from only two founder colonies, and continued breeding from it for a period of over 10 years in a location outside its natural area of occurrence. We show that despite a great reduction in the number of alleles present at both neutral microsatellite loci and the sex-determining locus relative to its natural source population, and an increased frequency in the production of sterile diploid males, the genetically impoverished population could be successfully bred and maintained for at least 10 years. This shows that in stingless bees, breeding from a small stock of colonies may have less severe consequences than previously suspected. In addition, we provide a simulation model to determine the number of colonies that are needed to maintain a certain number of sex alleles in a population, thereby providing useful guidelines for stingless bee breeding and conservation efforts.
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A methodology of identification and characterization of coherent structures mostly known as clusters is applied to hydrodynamic results of numerical simulation generated for the riser of a circulating fluidized bed. The numerical simulation is performed using the MICEFLOW code, which includes the two-fluids IIT`s hydrodynamic model B. The methodology for cluster characterization that is used is based in the determination of four characteristics, related to average life time, average volumetric fraction of solid, existing time fraction and frequency of occurrence. The identification of clusters is performed by applying a criterion related to the time average value of the volumetric solid fraction. A qualitative rather than quantitative analysis is performed mainly owing to the unavailability of operational data used in the considered experiments. Concerning qualitative analysis, the simulation results are in good agreement with literature. Some quantitative comparisons between predictions and experiment were also presented to emphasize the capability of the modeling procedure regarding the analysis of macroscopic scale coherent structures. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.
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When building genetic maps, it is necessary to choose from several marker ordering algorithms and criteria, and the choice is not always simple. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of algorithms try (TRY), seriation (SER), rapid chain delineation (RCD), recombination counting and ordering (RECORD) and unidirectional growth (UG), as well as the criteria PARF (product of adjacent recombination fractions), SARF (sum of adjacent recombination fractions), SALOD (sum of adjacent LOD scores) and LHMC (likelihood through hidden Markov chains), used with the RIPPLE algorithm for error verification, in the construction of genetic linkage maps. A linkage map of a hypothetical diploid and monoecious plant species was simulated containing one linkage group and 21 markers with fixed distance of 3 cM between them. In all, 700 F(2) populations were randomly simulated with and 400 individuals with different combinations of dominant and co-dominant markers, as well as 10 and 20% of missing data. The simulations showed that, in the presence of co-dominant markers only, any combination of algorithm and criteria may be used, even for a reduced population size. In the case of a smaller proportion of dominant markers, any of the algorithms and criteria (except SALOD) investigated may be used. In the presence of high proportions of dominant markers and smaller samples (around 100), the probability of repulsion linkage increases between them and, in this case, use of the algorithms TRY and SER associated to RIPPLE with criterion LHMC would provide better results. Heredity (2009) 103, 494-502; doi:10.1038/hdy.2009.96; published online 29 July 2009
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To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.
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The Coefficient of Variance (mean standard deviation/mean Response time) is a measure of response time variability that corrects for differences in mean Response time (RT) (Segalowitz & Segalowitz, 1993). A positive correlation between decreasing mean RTs and CVs (rCV-RT) has been proposed as an indicator of L2 automaticity and more generally as an index of processing efficiency. The current study evaluates this claim by examining lexical decision performance by individuals from three levels of English proficiency (Intermediate ESL, Advanced ESL and L1 controls) on stimuli from four levels of item familiarity, as defined by frequency of occurrence. A three-phase model of skill development defined by changing rCV-RT.values was tested. Results showed that RTs and CVs systematically decreased as a function of increasing proficiency and frequency levels, with the rCV-RT serving as a stable indicator of individual differences in lexical decision performance. The rCV-RT and automaticity/restructuring account is discussed in light of the findings. The CV is also evaluated as a more general quantitative index of processing efficiency in the L2.
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Reviews the ecological status of the mahogany glider and describes its distribution, habitat and abundance, life history and threats to it. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results provide information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly data is provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits seem to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained.
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The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.
Resumo:
Algorithms for explicit integration of structural dynamics problems with multiple time steps (subcycling) are investigated. Only one such algorithm, due to Smolinski and Sleith has proved to be stable in a classical sense. A simplified version of this algorithm that retains its stability is presented. However, as with the original version, it can be shown to sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. Another algorithm in use is shown to be only statistically stable, in that a probability of stability can be assigned if appropriate time step limits are observed. This probability improves rapidly with the number of degrees of freedom in a finite element model. The stability problems are shown to be a property of the central difference method itself, which is modified to give the subcycling algorithm. A related problem is shown to arise when a constraint equation in time is introduced into a time-continuous space-time finite element model. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.