Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of population structure of endemic Western Atlantic hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Decapoda, Anomura) in two regions of state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work characterized the population structure of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Moreira, 1901) in terms of size frequency distribution and sex ratio. Specimens were collected monthly, over a period of one year (from July 2002 to June 2003), in seven transects (from 5 to 35 m of depth) using fishing boat equipped with two double-rig trawl nets, in Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions (state of Sao Paulo, Brazil). A total of 366 hermit crabs were collected in Caraguatatuba [222 males (60.65%), 114 non-ovigerous females (31.15%) and 30 ovigerous females (8.20%)] and 126 hermit crabs in Ubatuba [81 males (64.28%), 38 non-ovigerous females (30.16%) and seven ovigerous females (5.56%)]. In Caraguatatuba the highest incidence of ovigerous females occurred during winter (July 2002), whereas in Ubatuba, the number was incipient. The cephalothoracic shield length ranged from 2.0 to 7.9mm (5.29 +/- 0.96mm) in Caraguatatuba, and from 2.7 to 7.5mm (5.32 +/- 0.95mm) in Ubatuba. The mean size of males was significantly larger than the mean size of females in both regions. Overall sex ratio was in favor of males (1.54:1 in Caraguatatuba and 1.9:1 in Ubatuba). Sexual dimorphism was recorded to L. loxochelis by the presence of males in the largest size classes, following the standard pattern observed in Decapoda. There was an unimodal size distribution for both sexes, with normal distributions in both regions. The higher number of males in relation to females may indicate the existence of different growth and mortality rates between the sexes. Despite of the different geomorphologic characteristics between Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions, the dynamics of development was similar for both populations.

Breastfeeding duration in an Australian population: The influence of modifiable antenatal factors

Despite well-documented health benefits of breastfeeding for mothers and babies, most women discontinue breastfeeding before the recommended 12 months to 2 years. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of modifiable antenatal variables on breastfeeding outcomes. A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted with 300 pregnant, Australian women. Questionnaires containing variables of interest were administered to women during their last trimester; infant feeding method was assessed at I week and 4 months postpartum. Intended breastfeeding duration and breastfeeding self-efficacy were identified as the most significant modifiable variables predictive of breastfeeding outcomes. Mothers who intended to breastfeed for < 6 months were 2.4 times as likely to have discontinued breastfeeding at 4 months compared to those who intended to breastfeed for > 12 months (35.7% vs 87.5%). Similarly, mothers with high breastfeeding self-efficacy were more likely to be breastfeeding compared to mothers with low self-efficacy (79.3% vs 50.0%).

Microsatellite allele sequencing in population analyses of the South American cactophilic species Drosophila antonietae (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Drosophila antonietae belongs to the Drosophila buzzatii cluster, a cactophilic group of species naturally endemic to South America. Morphological and genetic analyses indicate that its populations are the most homogenous in the cluster and that the diversity observed is mainly a result of variation within populations. Seven polymorphic microsatellite loci were described for this species and used in the present study to investigate the genetic diversity of natural populations of D. antonietae by both length and sequence variation. The study aimed to understand how homoplasy and null alleles affect inferences about the population history of this species and to obtain an accurate interpretation of population inferences where these loci could be applied. The results provide useful information on the interpretation of genetic data derived from the microsatellite loci described for D. antonietae and on evolutionary aspects of cactophilic Drosophila. Importantly, the results indicate that size homoplasy and null alleles do not represent significant problems for the population genetics analyses because the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci compensate the low frequency of these problems in the populations. (C) 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100, 573-584.

Fragmentation of a Neotropical migratory fish population by a century-old dam

Loss of connectivity in impounded rivers is among the impacts imposed by dams, and mitigation measures such as fish passages might not accomplish their purpose of reestablishing an efficient bi-directional gene flow in the fish populations affected. As a consequence, fish populations remain fragmented, and a new interpopulational structure may develop, with increased risk of reduced genetic diversity and stochastic extinction. In order to evaluate the effects of the Gavio Peixoto Dam, which was constructed almost a century ago on the Jacar,-Gua double dagger u River in the Upper Parana River basin, Brazil, a comparative morphometric study was undertaken on the populations of the Neotropical migratory characid fish Salminus hilarii living up- and downstream of this dam. Population dynamics, spatial segregation, and habitat use by different age classes were monitored for 2 years. We found that segregation caused by the dam and long periods with no efficient connection by fish passages have led to fragmentation and interpopulational structuring of S. hilarii, as revealed by canonical variable analysis of morphometric features. The fish populations occupying the up- and downstream sections have succeeded in performing short-distance reproductive migrations in the main river and tributaries, have found suitable habitats for completing their life cycle, and have been able to maintain distinct small-sized populations so far.

Maternal investment in egg production: environmental and population-specific effects on offspring performance in the snapping shrimp Alpheus nuttingi (Schmitt, 1924) (Decapoda, Alpheidae)

Among marine invertebrates, the overall biomass invested in egg production varies widely within populations, which can result from the interaction of endogenous and exogenous factors. Species that have constant reproduction throughout the year can be good models to study the influence of environmental factors on reproductive processes. We conducted a seasonal comparison of egg production in the intertidal snapping shrimp Alpheus nuttingi, which shows a continuous reproductive pattern, to examine the hypothesis that differences in egg production are driven by environmental conditions and population features. This population showed an uncommon strategy, characterized by females that produce eggs of varying sizes within their clutches, with reduced egg volume when the number of eggs is higher (Spring-Summer). In these seasons, higher temperatures and greater food availability may allow the production of more eggs compared to the Autumn-Winter seasons. Compared to other alpheid shrimps, this population produces small eggs, but in larger numbers. Despite the higher fecundity, the reproductive output is relatively low, this production being supported by the large size of females from the southern Atlantic region. Our findings showed that the egg production of A. nuttingi was greatly influenced by environmental factors. Therefore, this shrimp, and probably other decapods that possess continuous reproduction, adopt different reproductive strategies during the year. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, 2010.

Estimating population features of the anomuran crab Petrolisthes armatus (Porcellanidae) in a remaining and impacted mangrove area of the western Atlantic

This study evaluated biological aspects of Petrolisthes armatus inhabiting a remaining but disturbed mangrove area of Brazil. Samples were taken from March 2005 to July 2006, during low tide in the rocky-shore region. The size frequency distribution for all the individuals collected was bimodal. The sex ratio obtained was not different from 1: 1, and the population was classified as standard. A higher reproductive ratio and earlier ovigerous conditions were found in relation to another southern population; these can be hypothesized as adaptations to life in a stressed environment. Even though the population living in Ara has been subject to an environment frequently disturbed by human-produced pollutants, our results show no sign of negative effects on reproductive stages, recruits or members of the population in general. The population profiles of P. armatus show some peculiarities when compared to other populations inhabiting non disturbed environments.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Statistical Study of the Association of Seven Dental Anomalies in the Brazilian Population

The objective of this study was to show the association patterns among seven types of dental anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis, upper side incisive reduced in size, lower first molar infra-ochlesis, enamel hypoplasia, first molar ectopic eruption, supra numerous teeth and upper canine ectopic eruption) in a population sample without dental treatment ranging in age from 7 to 14. A total of 172 patients were attended and underwent the clinical examination at the Clinica Infantil da Fundacao Educacional de Barretos. Eleven patients from this total were selected according to a first dental anomaly diagnosis and submitted to panoramic radiography. A significant association (p < 0.05) was detected among six pairs of anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis x first pre-molar ectopic eruption; second pre-molar agenesis x lower first molar infra-ochlesis; second pre-molar agenesis x upper side incisive reduced in size; supra numerous teeth x reduced size upper side incisive; first pre-molar ectopic eruption x enamel hypoplasia; lower first molar infra-ochlesis x upper side incisive reduced in size) suggesting a common genetic origin for these conditions. The association was not significant in only one case where there was anomaly sharing by the patients. The existence of an anomaly is clinically relevant for early diagnosis of a possible association and an anomaly can indicate an increased risk of other anomalies.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Association of haplotypes in the IL8 gene with susceptibility to chronic periodontitis in a Brazilian population

Background: Interleukin 8 (IL-8) is a chemokine related to the initiation and amplification of acute and chronic inflammatory processes. Polymorphisms in the IL8 gene have been associated with inflammatory diseases. We investigated whether the - 845(T/C) and - 738(T/A) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the IL8 gene, as well as the haplotypes they form together with the previously investigated -353(A/T), are associated with susceptibility to chronic periodontitis. Methods: DNA was extracted from buccal epithelial cells of 400 Brazilian individuals (control n =182, periodontitis n=218). SNPs were genotyped by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Disease associations were analyzed by the chi(2) test, Exact Fisher test and Clump program. Haplotypes were reconstructed using the expectation-maximization algorithm and differences in haplotype distribution between the groups were analyzed to estimate genetic susceptibility for chronic periodontitis development. Results: When analyzed individually, no SNPs showed different distributions between the control and chronic periodontitis groups. Although, nonsmokers carrying the TTA/CAT (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.03-5.36) and TAT/CTA (OR= 6.05, 95% CI = 1.32-27.7) haplotypes were genetically susceptible to chronic periodontitis. The ITT/TAA haplotype was associated with protection against the development of periodontitis (for nonsmokers OR= 0.22, 95% CI = 0.10-0.46). Conclusion: Although none of the investigated SNPs in the IL8 gene was individually associated with periodontitis, some haplotypes showed significant association with susceptibility to, or protection against, chronic periodontitis in a Brazilian population. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electronic medical records may be inadequate for improving population health status through general practice: cervical smears as a case study

Objective: To determine whether routine electronic records are an accurate source of population health data in general practice through reviewing cervical smears rates in four South Australian practices. Methods: The cervical screening rate in a purposive sample of four general practices (three rural and one urban) was obtained using an audit of medical records and a telephone follow-up. Results: The cervical screening rate using only immediately available electronic medical records indicated an overall low rate for the participating practices (44.9%). However, telephone follow-up and adjustments to the denominator indicated the real rate to be 85.7%. The offer of appointments during the telephone follow-up further improved this rate for eligible women (93.8%). Conclusions and implications: Electronic medical records may be inadequate in preventive screening in general practice, without ensuring their accuracy. Updating records by telephone or personal follow-up produces a much more accurate denominator.

Does health service utilisation vary by remoteness? South Australian population data and the Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia

Objective: To compare rates of self-reported use of health services between rural, remote and urban South Australians. Methods: Secondary data analysis from a population-based survey to assess health and well-being, conducted in South Australia in 2000. In all, 2,454 adults were randomly selected and interviewed using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system. We analysed health service use by Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) category. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the median number of uses of the four types of health services studied across ARIA categories. Significantly fewer residents of highly accessible areas reported never using primary care services (14.4% vs. 22.2% in very remote areas), and significantly more reported high use ( greater than or equal to6 visits, 29.3% vs. 21.5%). Fewer residents of remote areas reported never attending hospital (65.6% vs. 73.8% in highly accessible areas). Frequency of use of mental health services was not statistically significantly different across ARIA categories. Very remote residents were more likely to spend at least one night in a public hospital (15.8%) than were residents of other areas (e.g. 5.9% for highly accessible areas). Conclusion: The self-reported frequency of use of a range of health services in South Australia was broadly similar across ARIA categories. However, use of primary care services was higher among residents of highly accessible areas and public hospital use increased with increasing remoteness. There is no evidence for systematic rural disadvantage in terms of self-reported health service utilisation in this State.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.