An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Comparison of methodologies for degree-day estimation using numerical methods

O desenvolvimento de projetos relacionados ao desempenho de diversas culturas tem recebido aperfeiçoamento cada vez maior, incorporado a modelos matemáticos sendo indispensável à utilização de equações cada vez mais consistentes que possibilitem previsão e maior aproximação do comportamento real, diminuindo o erro na obtenção das estimativas. Entre as operações unitárias que demandam maior estudo estão aquelas relacionadas com o crescimento da cultura, caracterizadas pela temperatura ideal para o acréscimo de matéria seca. Pelo amplo uso dos métodos matemáticos na representação, análise e obtenção de estimativas de graus-dia, juntamente com a grande importância que a cultura da cana-de-açúcar tem para a economia brasileira, foi realizada uma avaliação dos modelos matemáticos comumente usados e dos métodos numéricos de integração na estimativa da disponibilidade de graus-dia para essa cultura, na região de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo. Os modelos de integração, com discretização de 6 em 6 h, apresentaram resultados satisfatórios na estimativa de graus-dia. As metodologias tradicionais apresentaram desempenhos satisfatórios quanto à estimativa de grausdia com base na curva de temperatura horária para cada dia e para os agrupamentos de três, sete, 15 e 30 dias. Pelo método numérico de integração, a região de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo, apresentou disponibilidade térmica anual média de 1.070,6 GD para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar.

Kinetics of interface state-limited hole injection in alpha-naphthylphenylbiphenyl diamine (alpha-NPD) thin layers

Injection-limited operation is identified in thin-film, alpha-NPD-based diodes. A detailed model for the impedance of the injection process is provided which considers the kinetics of filling/releasing of interface states as the key factor behind the injection mechanism. The injection model is able to simultaneously account for the steady-state, current-voltage (J-V) characteristics and impedance response. and is based on the sequential injection of holes mediated by energetically distributed surface states at the metal-organic interface. The model takes into account the vacuum level offset caused by the interface dipole, along with the partial shift of the interface level distribution with bias voltage. This approach connects the low-frequency (similar to 1 Hz) capacitance spectra, which exhibits a transition between positive to negative values, to the change in the occupancy of interface states with voltage. Simulations based on the model allow to derive the density of interface states effectively intervening in the carrier injection (similar to 5 x 10(12) cm(-2)), which exhibit a Gaussian-like distribution. A kinetically determined hole barrier is calculated at levels located similar to 0.4 eV below the contact work function. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural network based estimation of torque in induction motors for real-time applications

Induction motors are largely used in several industry sectors. The selection of an induction motor has still been inaccurate because in most of the cases the load behavior in its shaft is completely unknown. The proposal of this article is to use artificial neural networks for torque estimation with the purpose of best selecting the induction motors rather than conventional methods, which use classical identification techniques and mechanical load modeling. Since proposed approach estimates the torque behavior from the transient to the steady state, one of its main contributions is the potential to also be implemented in control schemes for real-time applications. Simulation results are also presented to validate the proposed approach.

Prevalence of von Willebrand disease in dogs from São Paulo State, Brazil

The aims of the current study were to assess the prevalence of von Willebrand disease (vWD) in dogs from the region of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil, and to evaluate laboratory tests to diagnose this disease. The study included 350 dogs of various ages, different breeds, and both sexes. Dogs included in the study had no historical or clinical evidence of abnormal bleeding. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF:Ag), buccal mucosal bleeding time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and factor VIII activity were evaluated in their ability to diagnose vWD. The prevalence of vWD in dogs was 1.43% in the Botucatu region of Brazil. Determination of vWF:Ag was the best laboratory test to diagnose vWD.

Damage to the central amygdala produces differential encephalic c-fos expression in the water deprivation-partial rehydration protocol

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of oral hygiene education and motivation on removable partial denture wearers: longitudinal study

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of two different preventive oral hygiene education and motivation programmes on the plaque and gingival index, as well as denture hygiene of patients provided with removable partial denture (RPD) during a 12-month follow-up.A total of 53 partially edentulous patients were recruited for this study. The presence or absence of plaque and gingival bleeding by gentle probing was scored on all tooth surfaces at the preliminary visit. The plaque and gingival indexes were measured using the Loe index. Following treatment, the patients were randomly divided into three groups. In Control Group I, subjects were instructed to continue their personal oral hygiene routine. In Group II, participants were given verbal instructions and a self-educational manual on oral hygiene without illustrations. In Group III, oral hygiene guidance was delivered using a combination of verbal instructions and a self-teaching manual. To evaluate the effect of the different modes of instruction, the presence or absence of plaque and gingival bleeding was scored on all tooth surfaces (day zero examination) and re-examined 7, 15 and 30 days, 3, 6 and 12 months following RPD placement. The state of denture hygiene was evaluated 7, 15 and 30 days and 3, 6 and 12 months following rehabilitation. Parametric statistics was applied to dental plaque and gingival indexes. For accumulation of plaque and calculus on the RPD, non-parametric statistic was applied.The frequency of plaque found during the preliminary visit was higher than that found in the other periods. With regard to gingival index, significant difference was found between the preliminary visit examination and other periods. There was a significant difference in the plaque accumulation on the denture surface between groups I and III.The different methods of oral hygiene instruction used in this study indicate that the type of education was not of significant importance.

Seed with and without Partial Tegument Removal and Substrate Affect Germination of Castanea sativa

Portuguese chestnut (Castanea sativa) is used for forest products, raw nuts and processed flour, paste, and candy. We studied the influence on germination efficiency of seed with and without partial tegument removal combined with different substrate composition (coconut fiber, pine compost and vermiculite) at São Paulo State University, Campus of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. Randomized blocks were used in a factorial scheme 3x2 (three substrates x two seed types) consisting of six treatments with five replications (twelve seeds). Seeds were sowed in expanded polystyrene trays, with 72 cells, and maintained at 25 C under controlled environment. Rate, time elapsed and speed of seed germination was submitted to ANOVA and the average compared using Tukey's 5% test of probability and curves adjusted based on Gompertz regression. Coconut fiber or vermiculite associated with seed without partial tegument removal showed the highest germination rate, and coconut fiber with or without partial tegument removal displayed the fastest speed of seed germination.

Production, partial characterization, and immobilization in alginate beads of an alkaline protease from a new thermophilic fungus Myceliophthora sp.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of aerobic training status on both maximal lactate steady state and critical power

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)