Does Uncertainty Affect Investment and Labor Demand?

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.

Thermodynamic consistency of the interaction parameter formalism

The apparent contradiction between the exact nature of the interaction parameter formalism as presented by Lupis and Elliott and the inconsistencies discussed recently by Pelton and Bale arise from the truncation of the Maclaurin series in the latter treatment. The truncation removes the exactness of the expression for the logarithm of the activity coefficient of a solute in a multi-component system. The integrals are therefore path dependent. Formulae for integration along paths of constant Xi,or X i/Xj are presented. The expression for In γsolvent given by Pelton and Bale is valid only in the limit that the mole fraction of solvent tends to one. The truncation also destroys the general relations between interaction parameters derived by Lupis and Elliott. For each specific choice of parameters special relationships are obtained between interaction parameters.

A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Sign Of The Order Parameter In Oriented Systems And Its Utility In The Study Of The Dynamic Properties Of Molecules

Novel one and two dimensional NMR techniques are proposed and utilized for the determination of the signs of the order parameters used for the study of the mobility of the fatty acid chains. The experiments designed to extract this information involve the use of the intensities of the side bands in the spectra of oriented systems spinning at the magic angle. Advantages of the two dimensional technique over the one dimensional method are discussed. The utility of the method in the study of the dynamic properties of membranes and model systems is pointed out.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of the sign of the order parameter from MAS spectra of oriented molecules

The use of the intensities of the spinning sidebands in the magic-angle spinning spectra of oriented molecules is proposed for the determination of the signs of the order parameters. The method is demonstrated for benzene and chloroform oriented in nematic phases of liquid crystals. On the basis of the theoretical expressions derived for the various order sidebands, the applicability of the method for different experimental conditions is discussed.

Kaon B parameter with Wilson fermions

We calculate the kaon B parameter in quenched lattice QCD at beta=6.0 using Wilson fermions at kappa=0.154 and 0.155. We use two kinds of nonlocal (''smeared'') sources for quark propagators to calculate the matrix elements between states of definite momentum. The use of smeared sources yields results with much smaller errors than obtained in previous calculations with Wilson fermions. By combining results for p=(0,0,0) and p=(0,0,1), we show that one can carry out the noperturbative subtraction necessary to remove the dominant lattice artifacts induced by the chiral-symmetry-breaking term in the Wilson action. Our final results are in good agreement with those obtained using staggered fermions. We also present results for B parameters of the DELTAI = 3/2 part of the electromagnetic penguin operators, and preliminary results for B(K) in the presence of two flavors of dynamical quarks.

Effect of uncertainty on helicopter performance predictions

The effect of uncertainties on performance predictions of a helicopter is studied in this article. The aeroelastic parameters such as the air density, blade profile drag coefficient, main rotor angular velocity, main rotor radius, and blade chord are considered as uncertain variables. The propagation of these uncertainties in the performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, figure of merit, induced velocity, and power required are studied using Monte Carlo simulation and the first-order reliability method. The Rankine-Froude momentum theory is used for performance prediction in hover, axial climb, and forward flight. The propagation of uncertainty causes large deviations from the baseline deterministic predictions, which undoubtedly affect both the achievable performance and the safety of the helicopter. The numerical results in this article provide useful bounds on helicopter power requirements.

Thermodynamics and phase equilibria in the system Ga---In using multi-parameter functions

A four and a five-parameter functions are used to analyse and interpret the high and low temperature thermodynamic data and phase equilibria in the Ga-In system.

Strong nonlocalization induced by small scale parameter on terahertz flexural wave dispersion characteristics of a monolayer graphene

This paper presents the strong nonlocal scale effect on the flexural wave propagation in a monolayer graphene sheet. The graphene is modeled as an isotropic plate of one atom thick. Nonlocal governing equation of motion is derived and wave propagation analysis is performed using spectral analysis. The present analysis shows that the flexural wave dispersion in graphene obtained by local and nonlocal elasticity theories is quite different. The nonlocal elasticity calculation shows that the wavenumber escapes to infinite at certain frequency and the corresponding wave velocity tends to zero at that frequency indicating localization and stationary behavior. This behavior is captured in the spectrum and dispersion curves. The cut-off frequency of flexural wave not only depend on the axial wavenumber but also on the nonlocal scaling parameter. The effect of axial wavenumber on the wave behavior in graphene is also discussed in the present manuscript. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modified sulphide capacity function

The sulphide capacity as originally defined by Fincham and Richardson is a strong function of composition in pseudobinary oxide melts of interest in extractive metallurgy. From an analysis of data available in the literature, it is shown that sulphide capacity is directly proportional to the activity of the basic oxide in the melt, within the uncertainty of experimental data. A single parameter is sufficient to describe the sulphide capacity of a binary slag system under isothermal and isobaric conditions. The correlation indicates that the activity coefficient of the sulphide ion or the neutral base metal sulphide dissolved in the melt is independent of composition in pseudobinary melts within experimental uncertainty. Structural variations in the melt with composition do not seem to affect the activity coefficient of the sulphide. A modified sulphide capacity function is defined which makes the treatment more elegant and greatly simplifies data storage and retrieval. The modified function is not based on any model for the melt.

Generalized State Parameter for Partly Saturated Soils

Studies on compressibility and shear strength aspects are the concern of many investigators concerned with partly saturated soils. In soil engineering connected with partly saturated soils, there are no approaches connecting soil states and stress conditions. The present investigation is essentially a step in this direction. A generalized state parameter, identified with regard to material states is shown to be related to the compressibility and shear strength. The involved parameters are simple and normally determined in routine investigations. The advantage of this approach is that changes in soil states due to external stress conditions and the associated changes in strength can be examined particularly when different types of soils are involved.