Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Knitted images : drawing patterns

This Arts Based Education Research (Eisner 2008) work provides potent opportunity to consider different problems and challenges that impact on the progress of research (art as data making) and the theories being explored. It provides opportunity to transport ideas across between research activity, and teaching practices...

Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods with GPU acceleration for computing nonlinear ship wave patterns

The nonlinear problem of steady free-surface flow past a submerged source is considered as a case study for three-dimensional ship wave problems. Of particular interest is the distinctive wedge-shaped wave pattern that forms on the surface of the fluid. By reformulating the governing equations with a standard boundary-integral method, we derive a system of nonlinear algebraic equations that enforce a singular integro-differential equation at each midpoint on a two-dimensional mesh. Our contribution is to solve the system of equations with a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method together with a banded preconditioner that is carefully constructed with entries taken from the Jacobian of the linearised problem. Further, we are able to utilise graphics processing unit acceleration to significantly increase the grid refinement and decrease the run-time of our solutions in comparison to schemes that are presently employed in the literature. Our approach provides opportunities to explore the nonlinear features of three-dimensional ship wave patterns, such as the shape of steep waves close to their limiting configuration, in a manner that has been possible in the two-dimensional analogue for some time.

CAM : a collaborative object memory system

Physical design objects such as sketches, drawings, collages, storyboards and models play an important role in supporting communication and coordination in design studios. CAM (Cooperative Artefact Memory) is a mobile-tagging based messaging system that allows designers to collaboratively store relevant information onto their design objects in the form of messages, annotations and external web links. We studied the use of CAM in a Product Design studio over three weeks, involving three different design teams. In this paper, we briefly describe CAM and show how it serves as 'object memory'.

BDNF and TNF-α polymorphisms in memory

Here, we investigate the genetic basis of human memory in healthy individuals and the potential role of two polymorphisms, previously implicated in memory function. We have explored aspects of retrospective and prospective memory including semantic, short term, working and long-term memory in conjunction with brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha). The memory scores for healthy individuals in the population were obtained for each memory type and the population was genotyped via restriction fragment length polymorphism for the BDNF rs6265 (Val66Met) SNP and via pyrosequencing for the TNF-alpha rs113325588 SNP. Using univariate ANOVA, a significant association of the BDNF polymorphism with visual and spatial memory retention and a significant association of the TNF-alpha polymorphism was observed with spatial memory retention. In addition, a significant interactive effect between BDNF and TNF-alpha polymorphisms was observed in spatial memory retention. In practice visual memory involves spatial information and the two memory systems work together, however our data demonstrate that individuals with the Val/Val BDNF genotype have poorer visual memory but higher spatial memory retention, indicating a level of interaction between TNF-alpha and BDNF in spatial memory retention. This is the first study to use genetic analysis to determine the interaction between BDNF and TNF-alpha in relation to memory in normal adults and provides important information regarding the effect of genetic determinants and gene interactions on human memory.

Joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid-memory models of marine structures

This paper addresses the problem of joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid memory models of marine structures from finite frequency data. This problem is relevant for cases where the code used to compute the hydrodynamic coefficients of the marine structure does not give the infinite-frequency added mass. This case is typical of codes based on 2D-potential theory since most 3D-potential-theory codes solve the boundary value associated with the infinite frequency. The method proposed in this paper presents a simpler alternative approach to other methods previously presented in the literature. The advantage of the proposed method is that the same identification procedure can be used to identify the fluid-memory models with or without having access to the infinite-frequency added mass coefficient. Therefore, it provides an extension that puts the two identification problems into the same framework. The method also exploits the constraints related to relative degree and low-frequency asymptotic values of the hydrodynamic coefficients derived from the physics of the problem, which are used as prior information to refine the obtained models.

Cork as canvas : exploring intersections of citizenship and collective memory in the Shandon Big Wash Up murals

Urban space has the potential to shape people's experience and understanding of the city and of the culture of a place. In some respects, murals and allied forms of wall art occupy the intersection of street art and public art; engaging, and sometimes, transforming the urban space in which they exist and those who use it. While murals are often conceived as a more ‘permanent’ form of painted art there has been a trend in recent years towards more deliberately transient forms of wall art such as washed-wall murals and reverse graffiti. These varying forms of public wall art are embedded within the fabric of the urban space and history. This paper will explore the intersection of public space, public art and public memory in a mural project in the Irish city of Cork. Focussing on the washed-wall murals of Cork's historic Shandon district, we explore the sympathetic and synergetic relationship of this wall art with the heritage architecture of the built environment and of the murals as an expression of and for the local community, past and present. Through the Shandon Big Wash Up murals we reflect on the function of participatory public art as an explicit act of urban citizenship which works to support community-led re-enchantment in the city through a reconnection with its past.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Developing transactive memory systems : theoretical contributions from a social identity perspective

Transactive memory system (TMS) theory explains how expertise is recognized and coordinated in teams. Extending current TMS research from a group information-processing perspective, our article presents a theoretical model that considers TMS development from a social identity perspective. We discuss how two features of communication (quantity and quality) important to TMS development are linked to TMS through the group identification mechanism of a shared common team identity. Informed by social identity theory, we also differentiate between intragroup and intergroup contexts and outline how, in multidisciplinary teams, professional identification and perceived equality of status among professional subgroups have a role to play in TMS development. We provide a theoretical discussion of future research directions aimed at testing and extending our model.

Physical activity patterns of inner-city elementary schoolchildren

Purpose This study aimed to objectively measure the physical activity (PA) characteristics of a racially and ethnically diverse sample of inner-city elementary schoolchildren and to examine the influence of sex, race/ethnicity, grade level, and weight status on PA. Methods A total of 470 students in grades 4-6 from six inner-city schools in Philadelphia wore an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer (Actigraph, Pensacola, FL) for up to 7 d. The resultant data were uploaded to a customized Visual Basic EXCEL macro to determine the time spent in sedentary (SED), light-intensity PA (LPA), and moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA). Results On average, students accumulated 48 min of MVPA daily. Expressed as a percentage of monitoring time, students were sedentary for 63% of the time, in LPA 31% of the time, and in MVPA 6% of the time. Across all race/ethnicity and grade level groups, boys exhibited significantly higher levels of MVPA than girls did; fifth-grade boys exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than fourth-and sixth-grade boys did, and sixth-grade girls exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than fourth-and fifth-grade girls did. Hispanic children exhibited lower levels of MVPA than children from other racial/ethnic groups did, and overweight and obese children exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than children in the healthy weight range did. Across the entire sample, only 24.3% met the current public health guidelines for PA. Physical inactivity was significantly greater among females, Hispanics, and overweight and obese students. Conclusions Fewer than one in four inner-city schoolchildren accumulated the recommended 60 min of MVPA daily. These findings highlight the need for effective and sustainable programs to promote PA in inner-city youth.

Patterns of accelerometer-assessed sedentary behavior in older women

Recent studies suggest a high volume of sedentary behavior may be a risk factor for adverse health outcomes.1 However, few data exist on how this behavior is patterned (eg, does most sedentary behavior occur in a few long bouts or in many short bouts?) and whether sedentary patterns are relevant for health. We examined details of sedentary behavior among older women. Because physical activity is influenced by age, body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and smoking status, we further examined sedentary behavior in relation to these characteristics.

Life transitions and changing physical activity patterns in young women

Background Physical activity (PA) patterns are likely to change in young adulthood in line with changes in lifestyle that occur in the transition from adolescence to adulthood. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether key life events experienced by young women in their early twenties are associated with increasing levels of inactivity. Methods This was a 4-year follow-up of 7281 participants (aged 18 to 23 years at baseline) in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women’s Health, with self-reported measures of PA, life events, body mass index (BMI), and sociodemographic variables. Results The cross-sectional data indicated no change in PA between baseline (57% “active”) and follow-up (56% “active”). However, for almost 40% of the sample, PA category changed between baseline and follow-up, with approximately 20% of the women changing from being “active” to “inactive,” and another 20% changing from being “inactive” to “active.” After adjustment for age, other sociodemographic variables, BMI, and PA at baseline, women who reported getting married, having a first or subsequent child, or beginning paid work were more likely to be inactive at follow-up than those who did not report these events. Conclusions The results suggest that life events such as getting married, having children, and starting work are associated with decreased levels of PA in young adult women. Strategies are needed to promote maintenance of activity at the time when most women experience these key life-stage transitions.

Physical activity patterns of Singaporean adolescents

The purpose of this study was to document the level of physical activity and sedentary behavior in a representative sample of Singaporean adolescents. A random sample of 1,827 secondary school students from six secondary schools (929 boys, 898 girls, mean age 14.9 +/- 1.2 yr) completed the Three-Day Physical Activity Recall (3DPAR) self-report instrument. Approximately 63% of Singaporean high school students met current guidelines requiring 60 min of moderate to vigorous physical activity daily. Just over half (51.6%) met the guideline calling for regular vigorous physical activity. Across all grade levels, boys were consistently more active than girls. More than 70% of Singaporean high school students exceeded the recommended 2 hours per day of electronic media use. Collectively, these findings suggest that a significant proportion of Singaporean adolescents are not sufficiently active and are in need of programs to promote physical activity and decrease sedentary behavior.