Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Watershed classification in the Lower Mekong Basin: Rapid economic growth - a source of increasing potential for conflict over resource use

In the Lower Mekon Basin the extraordinary pace of economic development and growth contradicts with environmental protection. On base of the Watershed Classification Project (WSCP) and the inclusion of a DTM for the entire LMB the potential degradation risk was derived for each land unit. The risks were grouped into five classes, where classes one and two are considered critical with regard to soil erosion when the land is cleared of natural resources. For practical use the database has an enormous potential for further spatial analysis in combination with other datasets, as for example the NCCR North-South uses the WSCP within two research projects.

The Quiet Eye in Motor Performance and Learning – Functional and Theoretical Considerations

High precision in motor skill performance, in both sport and other domains (e.g. surgery and aviation), requires the efficient coupling of perceptual inputs (e.g. vision) and motor actions. A particular gaze strategy, which has received much attention within the literature, has been shown to predict both inter- (expert vs. novice) and intra-individual (successful vs. unsuccessful) motor performance (see Vine et al., 2014). Vickers (1996) labelled this phenomenon the quiet eye (QE) which is defined as the final fixation before the initiation of the crucial phase of movement. While the positive influence of a long QE on accuracy has been revealed in a range of different motor skills, there is a growing number of studies suggesting that the relationship between QE and motor performance is not entirely monotonic. This raises interesting questions regarding the QE’s purview, and the theoretical approaches explaining its functionality. This talk aims to present an overview of the issues described above, and to discuss contemporary research and experimental approaches to examining the QE phenomenon. In the first part of the talk Dr. Vine will provide a brief and critical review of the literature, highlighting recent empirical advancements and potential directions for future research. In the second part, Dr. Klostermann will communicate three different theoretical approaches to explain the relationship between QE and motor performance. Drawing upon aspects of all three of these theoretical approaches, a functional inhibition role for the QE (related to movement parameterisation) will be proposed.

Virtopsy--fatal motor vehicle accident with head injury.

A man wearing no protective helmet was struck by a motor vehicle while riding a bicycle. He was loaded on his left side, and the impact point of his head was his occiput on the car roof girder. He was immediately transported to the general hospital, where he passed away. Postmortem examination using multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) revealed an extensively comminuted fracture of the posterior part and the base of the skull. Observed were deep direct and contrecoup brain bruises, with the independent fractures of the roof of the both orbits. Massive subdural and subarachnoidal hemorrhage with cerebral edema and shifting of the mid-line towards left side were also detected. MSCT and autopsy results were compared and the body injuries were correlated to vehicle damages. In conclusion, postmortem imaging is a good forensic visualization tool with great potential for documentation and examination of body injuries and pathology.

Three-State Single-Molecule Naphthalenediimide Switch: Integration of a Pendant Redox Unit for Conductance Tuning

We studied charge transport through core-substituted naphthalenediimide (NDI) single-molecule junctions using the electrochemical STM-based break-junction technique in combination with DFT calculations. Conductance switching among three well-defined states was demonstrated by electrochemically controlling the redox state of the pendent diimide unit of the molecule in an ionic liquid. The electrical conductances of the dianion and neutral states differ by more than one order of magnitude. The potential-dependence of the charge-transport characteristics of the NDI molecules was confirmed by DFT calculations, which account for electrochemical double-layer effects on the conductance of the NDI junctions. This study suggests that integration of a pendant redox unit with strong coupling to a molecular backbone enables the tuning of charge transport through single-molecule devices by controlling their redox states.

Usability and Acceptability of ASSESS MS: Assessment of Motor Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Using Depth-Sensing Computer Vision

Background: Sensor-based recordings of human movements are becoming increasingly important for the assessment of motor symptoms in neurological disorders beyond rehabilitative purposes. ASSESS MS is a movement recording and analysis system being developed to automate the classification of motor dysfunction in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using depth-sensing computer vision. It aims to provide a more consistent and finer-grained measurement of motor dysfunction than currently possible. Objective: To test the usability and acceptability of ASSESS MS with health professionals and patients with MS. Methods: A prospective, mixed-methods study was carried out at 3 centers. After a 1-hour training session, a convenience sample of 12 health professionals (6 neurologists and 6 nurses) used ASSESS MS to capture recordings of standardized movements performed by 51 volunteer patients. Metrics for effectiveness, efficiency, and acceptability were defined and used to analyze data captured by ASSESS MS, video recordings of each examination, feedback questionnaires, and follow-up interviews. Results: All health professionals were able to complete recordings using ASSESS MS, achieving high levels of standardization on 3 of 4 metrics (movement performance, lateral positioning, and clear camera view but not distance positioning). Results were unaffected by patients’ level of physical or cognitive disability. ASSESS MS was perceived as easy to use by both patients and health professionals with high scores on the Likert-scale questions and positive interview commentary. ASSESS MS was highly acceptable to patients on all dimensions considered, including attitudes to future use, interaction (with health professionals), and overall perceptions of ASSESS MS. Health professionals also accepted ASSESS MS, but with greater ambivalence arising from the need to alter patient interaction styles. There was little variation in results across participating centers, and no differences between neurologists and nurses. Conclusions: In typical clinical settings, ASSESS MS is usable and acceptable to both patients and health professionals, generating data of a quality suitable for clinical analysis. An iterative design process appears to have been successful in accounting for factors that permit ASSESS MS to be used by a range of health professionals in new settings with minimal training. The study shows the potential of shifting ubiquitous sensing technologies from research into the clinic through a design approach that gives appropriate attention to the clinic environment.

How Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation Can Modulate Implicit Motor Sequence Learning and Consolidation: A Brief Review

The purpose of this review is to investigate how transcranial direct current stimulation(tDCS)can modulate implicit motor sequence learning and consolidation. So far, most of the studies have focused on the modulating effect of tDCS for explicit motor learning. Here, we focus explicitly on implicit motor sequence learning and consolidation in order to improve our understanding about the potential of tDCS to affect this kind of unconscious learning. Specifically, we concentrate on studies with the serial reaction time task (SRTT), the classical paradigm for measuring implicit motor sequence learning. The influence of tDCS has been investigated for the primary motor cortex, the premotor cortex, the prefrontal cortex, and the cerebellum. The results indicate that tDCS above the primary motor cortex gives raise to the most consistent modulating effects for both implicit motor sequence learning and consolidation.

Intelligence and the psychological refractory period: A lateralized readiness potential study

The psychological refractory period (PRP) refers to a delay of response times (RT) to the second of two stimuli when these stimuli are presented in rapid succession. If this limitation of rapidly processing the second stimulus contributes to the well-known differences in speed of information processing between individuals with higher and lower mental ability, individuals with lower mental ability should exhibit a more pronounced PRP effect than individuals with higher mental ability. Previous studies on this question, however, yielded inconsistent results. In the present study, we assessed mental ability-related differences in the PRP by measuring lateralized readiness potentials (LRPs) to separate premotor and motor aspects of speed of information processing in 95 individuals with higher and 95 individuals with lower mental ability. Although individuals with higher mental ability processed information faster than individuals with lower mental ability as indicated by shorter RTs and shorter premotor LRP latencies, the PRP effect was equally pronounced in both groups. These findings suggest that the processes underlying the PRP effect do not contribute to mental ability-related differences in speed of information processing. Rather, these differences seem to occur at an earlier stage of information processing such as stimulus encoding, stimulus analysis, or stimulus evaluation.

Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Additional Theory and Evidence

Knowles, Persico, and Todd (2001) develop a model of police search and offender behavior. Their model implies that if police are unprejudiced the rate of guilt should not vary across groups. Using data from Interstate 95 in Maryland, they find equal guilt rates for African-Americans and whites and conclude that the data is not consistent with racial prejudice against African-Americans. This paper generalizes the model of Knowles, Persico, and Todd by accounting for the fact that potential offenders are frequently not observed by the police and by including two different levels of offense severity. The paper shows that for African-American males the data is consistent with prejudice against African-American males, no prejudice, and reverse discrimination depending on the form of equilibria that exists in the economy. Additional analyses based on stratification by type of vehicle and time of day were conducted, but did not shed any light on the form of equilibria that best represents the situation in Maryland during the sample period.

Years of potential life lost among Hispanics and non-Hispanics in Bexar County

While numerous studies have found similar mortality rates for Hispanics compared to non-Hispanic whites, surprisingly little is known about years of potential life lost (YPLL) differentials in mortality. The primary purpose of this paper is to quantify the effect that YPLL has on Hispanics in order to determine if YPLL differs between Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites. Using YPLL may bring attention to dissimilarities that are often obscured through traditional measures. Bexar County 2000-2004 data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, Vital Statistics Unit was analyzed for the descriptive analysis and 2003 Bexar County Multiple Cause Death data was analyzed for the regression analysis. The multiple regression models were used to examine Hispanic and non-Hispanic white differences in years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 75 from all-causes of death. For this analysis, YPLL was regressed on ethnicity, education level and marital status for men and women. The descriptive analysis found YPLL from all-causes was greater among non-Hispanic whites than Hispanics. However, the regression analysis found Hispanics lost more year of potential from all-causes of death compared to non-Hispanic whites. This indicates that the effect of ethnicity on YPLL differs for different methods of analysis. Future research efforts should keep in mind the method of analysis when using YPLL. Understanding differences in mortality among Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites is important for targeting future health policies and research to aid in eliminating Hispanic health disparities. ^

Critical indicators associated with negative performance in a selectively manned unit

Introduction. Selectively manned units have a long, international history, both military and civilian. Some examples include SWAT teams, firefighters, the FBI, the DEA, the CIA, and military Special Operations. These special duty operators are individuals who perform a highly skilled and dangerous job in a unique environment. A significant amount of money is spent by the Department of Defense (DoD) and other federal agencies to recruit, select, train, equip and support these operators. When a critical incident or significant life event occurs, that jeopardizes an operator's performance; there can be heavy losses in terms of training, time, money, and potentially, lives. In order to limit the number of critical incidents, selection processes have been developed over time to “select out” those individuals most likely to perform below desired performance standards under pressure or stress and to "select in" those with the "right stuff". This study is part of a larger program evaluation to assess markers that identify whether a person will fail under the stresses in a selectively manned unit. The primary question of the study is whether there are indicators in the selection process that signify potential negative performance at a later date. ^ Methods. The population being studied included applicants to a selectively manned DoD organization between 1993 and 2001 as part of a unit assessment and selection process (A&S). Approximately 1900 A&S records were included in the analysis. Over this nine year period, seventy-two individuals were determined to have had a critical incident. A critical incident can come in the form of problems with the law, personal, behavioral or family problems, integrity issues, and skills deficit. Of the seventy-two individuals, fifty-four of these had full assessment data and subsequent supervisor performance ratings which assessed how an individual performed while on the job. This group was compared across a variety of variables including demographics and psychometric testing with a group of 178 individuals who did not have a critical incident and had been determined to be good performers with positive ratings by their supervisors.^ Results. In approximately 2004, an online pre-screen survey was developed in the hopes of preselecting out those individuals with items that would potentially make them ineligible for selection to this organization. This survey has aided the organization to increase its selection rates and save resources in the process. (Patterson, Howard Smith, & Fisher, Unit Assessment and Selection Project, 2008) When the same prescreen was used on the critical incident individuals, it was found that over 60% of the individuals would have been flagged as unacceptable. This would have saved the organization valuable resources and heartache.^ There were some subtle demographic differences between the two groups (i.e. those with critical incidents were almost twice as likely to be divorced compared with the positive performers). Upon comparison of Psychometric testing several items were noted to be different. The two groups were similar when their IQ levels were compared using the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). When looking at the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), there appeared to be a difference on the MMPI Social Introversion; the Critical Incidence group scored somewhat higher. When analysis was done, the number of MMPI Critical Items between the two groups was similar as well. When scores on the NEO Personality Inventory (NEO) were compared, the critical incident individuals tended to score higher on Openness and on its subscales (Ideas, Actions, and Feelings). There was a positive correlation between Total Neuroticism T Score and number of MMPI critical items.^ Conclusions. This study shows that the current pre-screening process is working and would have saved the organization significant resources. ^ If one was to develop a profile of a candidate who potentially could suffer a critical incident and subsequently jeopardize the unit, mission and the safety of the public they would look like the following: either divorced or never married, score high on the MMPI in Social Introversion, score low on MMPI with an "excessive" amount of MMPI critical items; and finally scores high on the NEO Openness and subscales Ideas, Feelings, and Actions.^ Based on the results gleaned from the analysis in this study there seems to be several factors, within psychometric testing, that when taken together, will aid the evaluators in selecting only the highest quality operators in order to save resources and to help protect the public from unfortunate critical incidents which may adversely affect our health and safety.^

Nosocomial infections and their relationship to non-traditional risk factors in a medical intensive care unit

Background. Nosocomial infections are a source of concern for many hospitals in the United States and worldwide. These infections are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and hospital costs. Nosocomial infections occur in ICUs at a rate which is five times greater than those in general wards. Understanding the reasons for the higher rates can ultimately help reduce these infections. The literature has been weak in documenting a direct relationship between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors, such as unit staffing or patient acuity.^ Objective. To examine the relationship, if any, between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors. The potential non-traditional risk factors we studied were the patient acuity (which comprised of the mortality and illness rating of the patient), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU, and the patient to nurse ratio.^ Method. We conducted a secondary data analysis on patients hospitalized in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of the Memorial Hermann- Texas Medical Center in Houston during the months of March 2008- May 2009. The average monthly values for the patient acuity (mortality and illness Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) scores), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU and average patient to nurse ratio were calculated during this time period. Active surveillance of Bloodstream Infections (BSIs), Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) and Ventilator Associated Pneumonias (VAPs) was performed by Infection Control practitioners, who visited the MICU and performed a personal infection record for each patient. Spearman's rank correlation was performed to determine the relationship between these nosocomial infections and the non-traditional risk factors.^ Results. We found weak negative correlations between BSIs and two measures (illness and mortality DRG). We also found a weak negative correlation between UTI and unit staffing (patient to nurse ratio). The strongest positive correlation was found between illness DRG and mortality DRG, validating our methodology.^ Conclusion. From this analysis, we were able to infer that non-traditional risk factors do not appear to play a significant role in transmission of infection in the units we evaluated.^

Prediction of sepsis in the burn intensive care unit patient

Sepsis is a significant cause for multiple organ failure and death in the burn patient, yet identification in this population is confounded by chronic hypermetabolism and impaired immune function. The purpose of this study was twofold: 1) determine the ability of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria to predict sepsis in the burn patient; and 2) develop a model representing the best combination of clinical predictors associated with sepsis in the same population. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit (ICU) was conducted for the period January 2005 to September 2010. Blood culture results were paired with clinical condition: "positive-sick"; "negative-sick", and "screening-not sick". Data were collected for the 72 hours prior to each blood culture. The most significant predictors were evaluated using logistic regression, Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and ROC area under the curve (AUC) analyses to assess model predictive ability. Bootstrapping methods were employed to evaluate potential model over-fitting. Fifty-nine subjects were included, representing 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not found to be associated with culture type, with an average of 98% of subjects meeting criteria in the 3 days prior. ABA sepsis criteria were significantly different among culture type only on the day prior (p = 0.004). The variables identified for the model included: heart rate>130 beats/min, mean blood pressure<60 mmHg, base deficit<-6 mEq/L, temperature>36°C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose>150 mg/d1. The model was significant in predicting "positive culture-sick" and sepsis state, with AUC of 0.775 (p < 0.001) and 0.714 (p < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (p = 0.028) and 0.597 (p = .035), respectively. SIRS criteria are not appropriate for identifying sepsis in the burn population. The ABA criteria perform better, but only for the day prior to positive blood culture results. The time period useful to diagnose sepsis using clinical criteria may be limited to 24 hours. A combination of predictors is superior to individual variable trends, yet algorithms or computer support will be necessary for the clinician to find such models useful. ^

Organic geochemical character and hydrocarbon source potential of selected black shales at DSDP Hole 93-603B

LECO analysis, pyrolysis assay, and bitumen and elemental analysis were used to characterize the organic matter of 23 black shale samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 93, Hole 603B, located in the western North Atlantic. The organic matter is dominantly gas-prone and/or refractory. Two cores within the Turonian and Cenomanian, however, contained significant quantities of well-preserved, hydrogen-enriched, organic matter. This material is thermally immature and represents a potential oil-prone source rock. These sediments do not appear to have been deposited within a stagnant, euxinic ocean as would be consistent with an "oceanic anoxic event." Their organic geochemical and sedimentary character is more consistent with deposition by turbidity currents originating on the continental shelf and slope.