Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Audiovisual translation on Portuguese news bulletin

The daily access to news broadcast is something that, generally speaking, we do not abstain ourselves from, whether it is to be aware of what is going on in our country or to be informed about international events. But are we attentive to how the information about those events, namely those that occur outside Portugal, reaches us? How is that information handled – and who handles it – until we have it at our disposal? Is the audience aware that a large part of the news must be translated and must have a linguistic treatment? And how can we describe that same translation and the way it is presented? This case study is just an example of translation‘s role and its crucial presence on TV news broadcast, considering the way translation is processed, how it is barely noticed – or not –, how it influences the construction of the story and how the story influences the translation process. This case study was presented at the 2nd International Conference ―Media for All‖, with the theme ―Text on Air, Text on Screen‖, which took place at the Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, on 7-9 November 2007. O acesso diário a serviços informativos noticiosos é algo de que, de um modo geral, não nos privamos, seja para ficar a par do que se passa no nosso país, seja para ficarmos mais informados sobre eventos e acontecimentos internacionais. Mas teremos noção de como essas informações sobre esses acontecimentos, nomeadamente os que têm lugar fora de Portugal, chegam até nós? Qual será o tratamento dado a essas informações – e quem trata essas informações – até serem colocadas à nossa disposição? Será que o público, de um modo geral, se apercebe que grande parte das notícias é alvo de tratamento tradutológico e linguístico? E como se caracterizará essa tradução e a forma de apresentação da mesma? O presente estudo de caso é apenas um exemplo do papel e da presença fulcral da tradução em serviços noticiosos televisivos, seja pela forma como é feita, pelo modo como passa despercebida (ou não), pela influência que terá na construção da peça noticiosa e pela influência que a peça noticiosa terá no modo como se processa a tradução. Este estudo de caso foi apresentado na 2ª Conferência Internacional ―Media for All‖, subordinada ao tema ―Text on Air, Text on Screen‖, que teve lugar no Instituto Politécnico de Leiria de 7 a 9 de Novembro de 2007.

International News Reporting in the Multidimensional Network: The socio-demographics, professional culture and newswork of foreign correspondents working across Sub-Saharan Africa

Tese apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Media Digitais

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Nouveautés dans l'ostéogenèse imparfaite: de la recherche à la prise en charge multidisciplinaire [News in osteogenesis imperfecta: from research to clinical management]

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a rare genetic disease. Today we are able to propose an adapted and efficient management to the patients with this rare disorder (and their families) thanks to a strong collaboration of clinicians and researchers. Recent knowledge regarding the genetics of OI permits an accurate diagnosis of the specific type of OI and its own molecular mechanism, a genetic counseling for family planning and prenatal diagnosis, and in addition more targeted therapeutic options. A specific support with re-education for patients with OI is necessary and efficient. To optimize patient care, a multidisciplinary consultation is proposed at the CHUV, moreover a web site is available for patients, families and therapists: www.infomaladiesrares.ch

M. Frank Polk [sous-secrétaire d'Etat aux Affaires étrangères des États-Unis] (Central News, New York) : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58548

[Le capitaine Charles A.] Smith commandant [le paquebot] Imperator CN [Central News Photo Service] New-York : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58713

William Jennings Bryan CN [Central News Photo Service] New-York : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58715

CN [Central News Photo Service] New-York, l'Imperator quittant Southampton : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58716

Wilmer G. Platt (Central News, New York) : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58549

Taxi side car, Central News, New York : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 59415