Understanding and Modeling the Behavior of a Harmonic Drive Gear Transmission

In my research, I have performed an extensive experimental investigation of harmonic-drive properties such as stiffness, friction, and kinematic error. From my experimental results, I have found that these properties can be sharply non-linear and highly dependent on operating conditions. Due to the complex interaction of these poorly behaved transmission properties, dynamic response measurements showed surprisingly agitated behavior, especially around system resonance. Theoretical models developed to mimic the observed response illustrated that non-linear frictional effects cannot be ignored in any accurate harmonic-drive representation. Additionally, if behavior around system resonance must be replicated, kinematic error and transmission compliance as well as frictional dissipation from gear-tooth rubbing must all be incorporated into the model.

The implementation of a translational study involving a primary care based behavioral program to improve blood pressure control: The HTN-IMPROVE study protocol (01295).

BACKGROUND: Despite the impact of hypertension and widely accepted target values for blood pressure (BP), interventions to improve BP control have had limited success. OBJECTIVES: We describe the design of a 'translational' study that examines the implementation, impact, sustainability, and cost of an evidence-based nurse-delivered tailored behavioral self-management intervention to improve BP control as it moves from a research context to healthcare delivery. The study addresses four specific aims: assess the implementation of an evidence-based behavioral self-management intervention to improve BP levels; evaluate the clinical impact of the intervention as it is implemented; assess organizational factors associated with the sustainability of the intervention; and assess the cost of implementing and sustaining the intervention. METHODS: The project involves three geographically diverse VA intervention facilities and nine control sites. We first conduct an evaluation of barriers and facilitators for implementing the intervention at intervention sites. We examine the impact of the intervention by comparing 12-month pre/post changes in BP control between patients in intervention sites versus patients in the matched control sites. Next, we examine the sustainability of the intervention and organizational factors facilitating or hindering the sustained implementation. Finally, we examine the costs of intervention implementation. Key outcomes are acceptability and costs of the program, as well as changes in BP. Outcomes will be assessed using mixed methods (e.g., qualitative analyses--pattern matching; quantitative methods--linear mixed models). DISCUSSION: The study results will provide information about the challenges and costs to implement and sustain the intervention, and what clinical impact can be expected.

Genome-wide association study of Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass in the Framingham Heart Study.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an emerging risk factor and therapeutic target for cardiovascular disease. The activity and mass of this enzyme are heritable traits, but major genetic determinants have not been explored in a systematic, genome-wide fashion. We carried out a genome-wide association study of Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass in 6,668 Caucasian subjects from the population-based Framingham Heart Study. Clinical data and genotypes from the Affymetrix 550K SNP array were obtained from the open-access Framingham SHARe project. Each polymorphism that passed quality control was tested for associations with Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass using linear mixed models implemented in the R statistical package, accounting for familial correlations, and controlling for age, sex, smoking, lipid-lowering-medication use, and cohort. For Lp-PLA(2) activity, polymorphisms at four independent loci reached genome-wide significance, including the APOE/APOC1 region on chromosome 19 (p = 6 x 10(-24)); CELSR2/PSRC1 on chromosome 1 (p = 3 x 10(-15)); SCARB1 on chromosome 12 (p = 1x10(-8)) and ZNF259/BUD13 in the APOA5/APOA1 gene region on chromosome 11 (p = 4 x 10(-8)). All of these remained significant after accounting for associations with LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, or triglycerides. For Lp-PLA(2) mass, 12 SNPs achieved genome-wide significance, all clustering in a region on chromosome 6p12.3 near the PLA2G7 gene. Our analyses demonstrate that genetic polymorphisms may contribute to inter-individual variation in Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass.

Poverty and Place in the Context of the American South

In the United States, poverty has been historically higher and disproportionately concentrated in the American South. Despite this fact, much of the conventional poverty literature in the United States has focused on urban poverty in cities, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Relatively less American poverty research has focused on the enduring economic distress in the South, which Wimberley (2008:899) calls “a neglected regional crisis of historic and contemporary urgency.” Accordingly, this dissertation contributes to the inequality literature by focusing much needed attention on poverty in the South.

Each empirical chapter focuses on a different aspect of poverty in the South. Chapter 2 examines why poverty is higher in the South relative to the Non-South. Chapter 3 focuses on poverty predictors within the South and whether there are differences in the sub-regions of the Deep South and Peripheral South. These two chapters compare the roles of family demography, economic structure, racial/ethnic composition and heterogeneity, and power resources in shaping poverty. Chapter 4 examines whether poverty in the South has been shaped by historical racial regimes.

The Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) United States datasets (2000, 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013) (derived from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement) provide all the individual-level data for this study. The LIS sample of 745,135 individuals is nested in rich economic, political, and racial state-level data compiled from multiple sources (e.g. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Agriculture, University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research, etc.). Analyses involve a combination of techniques including linear probability regression models to predict poverty and binary decomposition of poverty differences.

Chapter 2 results suggest that power resources, followed by economic structure, are most important in explaining the higher poverty in the South. This underscores the salience of political and economic contexts in shaping poverty across place. Chapter 3 results indicate that individual-level economic factors are the largest predictors of poverty within the South, and even more so in the Deep South. Moreover, divergent results between the South, Deep South, and Peripheral South illustrate how the impact of poverty predictors can vary in different contexts. Chapter 4 results show significant bivariate associations between historical race regimes and poverty among Southern states, although regression models fail to yield significant effects. Conversely, historical race regimes do have a small, but significant effect in explaining the Black-White poverty gap. Results also suggest that employment and education are key to understanding poverty among Blacks and the Black-White poverty gap. Collectively, these chapters underscore why place is so important for understanding poverty and inequality. They also illustrate the salience of micro and macro characteristics of place for helping create, maintain, and reproduce systems of inequality across place.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Improved Process Monitoring Using Nonlinear Principal Component Models

This paper presents two new approaches for use in complete process monitoring. The firstconcerns the identification of nonlinear principal component models. This involves the application of linear
principal component analysis (PCA), prior to the identification of a modified autoassociative neural network (AAN) as the required nonlinear PCA (NLPCA) model. The benefits are that (i) the number of the reduced set of linear principal components (PCs) is smaller than the number of recorded process variables, and (ii) the set of PCs is better conditioned as redundant information is removed. The result is a new set of input data for a modified neural representation, referred to as a T2T network. The T2T NLPCA model is then used for complete process monitoring, involving fault detection, identification and isolation. The second approach introduces a new variable reconstruction algorithm, developed from the T2T NLPCA model. Variable reconstruction can enhance the findings of the contribution charts still widely used in industry by reconstructing the outputs from faulty sensors to produce more accurate fault isolation. These ideas are illustrated using recorded industrial data relating to developing cracks in an industrial glass melter process. A comparison of linear and nonlinear models, together with the combined use of contribution charts and variable reconstruction, is presented.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Genetic variation in the interleukin-1 beta-converting enzyme associates with cognitive function. The PROSPER study

Inflammation is thought to play an important role in the development of cognitive decline and dementia in old age. The interleukin-1 signalling pathway may play a prominent role in this process. The gene encoding for interleukin-1 beta-converting enzyme (ICE) is likely to influence IL-1 beta levels. Inhibition of ICE decreases the age-related increase in IL-1 beta levels and may therefore improve memory function. We assessed whether genetic variation in the ICE gene associates with cognitive function in an elderly population. All 5804 participants of the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) were genotyped for the 10643GC, 9323GA, 8996AG and 5352GA polymorphisms in the ICE gene. Cross-sectional associations between the polymorphisms and cognitive function were assessed with linear regression. Longitudinal associations between polymorphisms, haplotypes and cognitive function were assessed with linear mixed models. All associations were adjusted for sex, age, education, country, treatment with pravastatin and version of test where appropriate. Subjects carrying the variants 10643C and 5352A allele had significantly lower IL-1 beta production levels (P

Identifying appropriate sampling and modelling approaches for analysing distributional patterns of Antarctic terrestrial arthropods along the Victoria Land latitudinal gradient

Biotic communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are relatively simple and often lack higher trophic levels (e. g. predators); thus, it is often assumed that species' distributions are mainly affected by abiotic factors such as climatic conditions, which change with increasing latitude, altitude and/or distance from the coast. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that factors other than geographical gradients affect the distribution of organisms with low dispersal capability such as the terrestrial arthropods. In Victoria Land (East Antarctica) the distribution of springtail (Collembola) and mite (Acari) species vary at scales that range from a few square centimetres to regional and continental. Different species show different scales of variation that relate to factors such as local geological and glaciological history, and biotic interactions, but only weakly with latitudinal/altitudinal gradients. Here, we review the relevant literature and outline more appropriate sampling designs as well as suitable modelling techniques (e. g. linear mixed models and eigenvector mapping), that will more adequately address and identify the range of factors responsible for the distribution of terrestrial arthropods in Antarctica.

Potassium canrenoate treatment in paediatric patients: a population pharmacokinetic study using novel dried blood spot sampling

Objective: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) in paediatric patients.

Methods: Data were collected prospectively from 37 paediatric patients (median weight 2.9?kg, age range 2 days–0.85 years) who received intravenous K-canrenoate for management of retained fluids, for example in heart failure and chronic lung disease. Dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n?=?213) from these were analysed for canrenone content and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Another group of patients (n?=?16) who had 71 matching plasma and DBS samples was analysed separately to compare canrenone pharmacokinetic parameters obtained using the two different matrices.

Results: A one-compartment model best described the DBS data. Significant covariates were weight, postmenstrual age (PMA) and gestational age. The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) in DBS were CL/F (l/h)?=?12.86?×? (WT/70.0)0.75?×?e [0.066?×? (PMA?-?40]) and V/F (l)?=?603.30?×? (WT/70)?×?(GA/40)1.89 where weight is in kilograms. The corresponding values of CL/F and V/F in a patient with a median weight of 2.9?kg are 1.11?l/h and 20.48?l, respectively. Estimated half-life of canrenone based on DBS concentrations was similar to that based on matched plasma concentrations (19.99 and 19.37?h, respectively, in 70?kg patient).

Conclusion: The range of estimated CL/F in DBS for the study population was 0.12–9.62?l/h; hence, bodyweight-based dosage adjustment of K-canrenoate appears necessary. However, a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and age (PMA/gestational age) of paediatric patients seems more appropriate.

Molecular pedigree reconstruction and estimation of evolutionary parameters in a wild Atlantic salmon river system with incomplete sampling: a power analysis

Background: Pedigree reconstruction using genetic analysis provides a useful means to estimate fundamental population biology parameters relating to population demography, trait heritability and individual fitness when combined with other sources of data. However, there remain limitations to pedigree reconstruction in wild populations, particularly in systems where parent-offspring relationships cannot be directly observed, there is incomplete sampling of individuals, or molecular parentage inference relies on low quality DNA from archived material. While much can still be inferred from incomplete or sparse pedigrees, it is crucial to evaluate the quality and power of available genetic information a priori to testing specific biological hypotheses. Here, we used microsatellite markers to reconstruct a multi-generation pedigree of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) using archived scale samples collected with a total trapping system within a river over a 10 year period. Using a simulation-based approach, we determined the optimal microsatellite marker number for accurate parentage assignment, and evaluated the power of the resulting partial pedigree to investigate important evolutionary and quantitative genetic characteristics of salmon in the system.

Results: We show that at least 20 microsatellites (ave. 12 alleles/locus) are required to maximise parentage assignment and to improve the power to estimate reproductive success and heritability in this study system. We also show that 1.5 fold differences can be detected between groups simulated to have differing reproductive success, and that it is possible to detect moderate heritability values for continuous traits (h(2) similar to 0.40) with more than 80% power when using 28 moderately to highly polymorphic markers.

Conclusion: The methodologies and work flow described provide a robust approach for evaluating archived samples for pedigree-based research, even where only a proportion of the total population is sampled. The results demonstrate the feasibility of pedigree-based studies to address challenging ecological and evolutionary questions in free-living populations, where genealogies can be traced only using molecular tools, and that significant increases in pedigree assignment power can be achieved by using higher numbers of markers.

Effects of peer network interactions on adolescent cannabis use

Purpose
This study capitalises on three waves of longitudinal data from a cohort of 4351 secondary school pupils to examine the effects on individuals’ cannabis use uptake of both peer cannabis use and position within a peer network.

Design/methodology/approach
Both cross-sectional and individual fixed effects models are used to estimate the effect on cannabis use of nominated friends’ cannabis use, of reciprocity and transitivity of nominations across the friendship cluster, and of interactions between these nominated friends. Post hoc analyses parsed the behaviour of reciprocating and non-reciprocating friends.

Findings
Cannabis use varied depending on the stability of friendship network and the degree of reciprocity and interconnectedness within the group. Behavioural influence was strong, but interaction effects were observed between the prevalence of cannabis use among friends, the structure of the friendship group and ego’s proximity to group members. These interactions demonstrate that behavioural influence is more salient in more cohesive groups. When reciprocating and non-reciprocating friends’ mean cannabis use were separated, influence from reciprocating friends was estimated at twice the magnitude of other friends.

Originality/value
While preventing any one individual from using cannabis is likely to have a multiplier effect on classmates, the bonds and interactions between classmates will determine which classmates are affected by this multiplier and the salience of that effect.

Home-range size in juveniles of the temperate reef fish, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum)

An organism’s home range dictates the spatial scale on which important processes occur (e.g. competition and predation) and directly affects the relationship between individual fitness and local habitat quality. Many reef fish species have very restricted home ranges after settlement and, here, we quantify home-range size in juveniles of a widespread and abundant reef fish in New Zealand, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum). We conducted visual observations on 49 juveniles (mean size = 35-mm total length) within the Wellington harbour, New Zealand. Home ranges were extremely small, 0.053 m2 ± 0.029 (mean ± s.d.) and were unaffected by adult density, body size or substrate composition. A regression tree indicated that home-range size sharply decreased ~4.5 juveniles m–2 and a linear mixed model confirmed that home-range sizes in high-density areas (>4.5 juveniles m–2) were significantly smaller (34%) than those in low-density areas (after accounting for a significant effect of fish movement on our home-range estimates). Our results suggest that conspecific density may have negative and non-linear effects on home-range size, which could shape the spatial distribution of juveniles within a population, as well as influence individual fitness across local density gradients.

Risk factors (excluding hormone therapy) for endometrial hyperplasia: a systematic review.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of risk factors associated with the development of Endometrial Hyperplasia (EH).

Data sources: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 30 June 2015.

Study eligibility: Fifteen observational studies that reported on EH risk in relation to lifestyle factors (n=14), medical history (n=11), reproductive and menstrual history (n=9) and measures of socio-economic status (n=2) were identified. Pooled relative risk estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were able to be derived for EH and Body Mass Index (BMI), smoking, diabetes and hypertension, using random effects models comparing high versus low categories.

Results: The pooled relative risk for EH when comparing women with the highest versus lowest BMI was 1.82 (95% CI 1.22–2.71; n=7 studies, I2=90.4%). No significant associations were observed for EH risk for smokers compared with non-smokers (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.17; n=3, I2=0.0%), hypertensive versus normotensive women (RR 1.51, 95% CI 0.72–3.15; n=5 studies, I2=79.1%), or diabetic versus non-diabetic women (RR 1.77, 95% CI 0.79–3.96; n=5 studies, I2=31.8%) respectively although the number of included studies was limited. There were mixed reports on the relationship between age and risk of EH. Too few studies reported on other factors to reach any conclusions in relation to EH risk.

Conclusions: A high BMI was associated with an increased risk of EH, providing additional rationale for women to maintain a normal body weight. No significant associations were detected for other factors and EH risk, however relatively few studies have been conducted and few of the available studies adequately adjusted for relevant confounders. Therefore, further aetiological studies of endometrial hyperplasia are warranted.