A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Two's company, three's a crowd: experimental evaluation of the evolutionary maintenance of trioecy in Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae).

Trioecy is an uncommon sexual system in which males, females, and hermaphrodites co-occur as three clearly different gender classes. The evolutionary stability of trioecy is unclear, but would depend on factors such as hermaphroditic sex allocation and rates of outcrossing vs. selfing. Here, trioecious populations of Mercurialis annua are described for the first time. We examined the frequencies of females, males and hermaphrodites across ten natural populations and evaluated the association between the frequency of females and plant densities. Previous studies have shown that selfing rates in this species are density-dependent and are reduced in the presence of males, which produce substantially more pollen than hermaphrodites. Accordingly, we examined the evolutionary stability of trioecy using an experiment in which we (a) indirectly manipulated selfing rates by altering plant densities and the frequency of males in a fully factorial manner across 20 experimental plots and (b) examined the effect of these manipulations on the frequency of the three sex phenotypes in the next generation of plants. In the parental generation, we measured the seed and pollen allocations of hermaphrodites and compared them with allocations by unisexual plants. In natural populations, females occurred at higher frequencies in denser patches, a finding consistent with our expectations. Under our experimental conditions, however, no combination of plant densities and male frequencies was associated with increased frequencies of females. Our results suggest that the factors that regulate female frequencies in trioecious populations of M. annua are independent of those regulating male frequencies (density), and that the stable co-existence of all three sex phenotypes within populations is unlikely.

Factors Affecting Audit Quality in the 2007 UK Regulatory Environment: Perceptions of Chief Financial Officers, Audit Committee Chairs and Audit Engagement Partners

In line with global changes, the UK regulatory regime for audit and corporate governance has changed significantly since the Enron scandal, with an increased role for audit committees and independent inspection of audit firms. UK listed company chief financial officers (CFOs), audit committee chairs (ACCs) and audit partners (APs) were surveyed in 2007 to obtain views on the impact of 36 economic and regulatory factors on audit quality. 498 usable responses were received, representing a response rate of 36%. All groups rated various audit committee interactions with auditors among the factors most enhancing audit quality. Exploratory factor analysis reduces the 36 factors to nine uncorrelated dimensions. In order of extraction, these are: economic risk; audit committee activities; risk of regulatory action; audit firm ethics; economic independence of auditor; audit partner rotation; risk of client loss; audit firm size; and, lastly, International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) and audit inspection. In addition to the activities of the audit committee, risk factors for the auditor (both economic and certain regulatory risks) are believed to most enhance audit quality. However, ISAs and the audit inspection regime, aspects of the ‘standards-surveillance compliance’ regulatory system, are viewed as less effective. Respondents commented that aspects of the changed regime are largely process and compliance driven, with high costs for limited benefits, supporting psychological bias regulation theory that claims there is overconfidence that a useful regulatory intervention exists.

Altered ligands reveal limited plasticity in the T cell response to a pathogenic epitope.

Experimental leishmaniasis offers a well characterized model of T helper type 1 cell (Th1)-mediated control of infection by an intracellular organism. Susceptible BALB/c mice aberrantly develop Th2 cells in response to infection and are unable to control parasite dissemination. The early CD4(+) T cell response in these mice is oligoclonal and reflects the expansion of Vbeta4/ Valpha8-bearing T cells in response to a single epitope from the parasite Leishmania homologue of mammalian RACK1 (LACK) antigen. Interleukin 4 (IL-4) generated by these cells is believed to direct the subsequent Th2 response. We used T cells from T cell receptor-transgenic mice expressing such a Vbeta4/Valpha8 receptor to characterize altered peptide ligands with similar affinity for I-Ad. Such altered ligands failed to activate IL-4 production from transgenic LACK-specific T cells or following injection into BALB/c mice. Pretreatment of susceptible mice with altered peptide ligands substantially altered the course of subsequent infection. The ability to confer a healer phenotype on otherwise susceptible mice using altered peptides that differed by a single amino acid suggests limited diversity in the endogenous T cell repertoire recognizing this antigen.

Référentiels des compétences et des métiers : une approche ontologique

Résumé La mondialisation des marchés, les mutations du contexte économique et enfin l'impact des nouvelles technologies de l'information ont obligé les entreprises à revoir la façon dont elles gèrent leurs capitaux intellectuel (gestion des connaissances) et humain (gestion des compétences). II est communément admis aujourd'hui que ceux-ci jouent un rôle particulièrement stratégique dans l'organisation. L'entreprise désireuse de se lancer dans une politique gestion de ces capitaux devra faire face à différents problèmes. En effet, afin de gérer ces connaissances et ces compétences, un long processus de capitalisation doit être réalisé. Celui-ci doit passer par différentes étapes comme l'identification, l'extraction et la représentation des connaissances et des compétences. Pour cela, il existe différentes méthodes de gestion des connaissances et des compétences comme MASK, CommonKADS, KOD... Malheureusement, ces différentes méthodes sont très lourdes à mettre en oeuvre, et se cantonnent à certains types de connaissances et sont, par conséquent, plus limitées dans les fonctionnalités qu'elles peuvent offrir. Enfin, la gestion des compétences et la gestion des connaissances sont deux domaines dissociés alors qu'il serait intéressant d'unifier ces deux approches en une seule. En effet, les compétences sont très proches des connaissances comme le souligne la définition de la compétence qui suit : « un ensemble de connaissances en action dans un contexte donné ». Par conséquent, nous avons choisi d'appuyer notre proposition sur le concept de compétence. En effet, la compétence est parmi les connaissances de l'entreprise l'une des plus cruciales, en particulier pour éviter la perte de savoir-faire ou pour pouvoir prévenir les besoins futurs de l'entreprise, car derrière les compétences des collaborateurs, se trouve l'efficacité de l'organisation. De plus, il est possible de décrire grâce à la compétence de nombreux autres concepts de l'organisation, comme les métiers, les missions, les projets, les formations... Malheureusement, il n'existe pas réellement de consensus sur la définition de la compétence. D'ailleurs, les différentes définitions existantes, même si elles sont pleinement satisfaisantes pour les experts, ne permettent pas de réaliser un système opérationnel. Dans notre approche; nous abordons la gestion des compétences à l'aide d'une méthode de gestion des connaissances. En effet, de par leur nature même, connaissance et compétence sont intimement liées et donc une telle méthode est parfaitement adaptée à la gestion des compétences. Afin de pouvoir exploiter ces connaissances et ces compétences nous avons dû, dans un premier temps, définir les concepts organisationnels de façon claire et computationnelle. Sur cette base, nous proposons une méthodologie de construction des différents référentiels d'entreprise (référentiel de compétences, des missions, des métiers...). Pour modéliser ces différents référentiels, nous avons choisi l'ontologie, car elle permet d'obtenir des définitions cohérentes et consensuelles aux concepts tout en supportant les diversités langagières. Ensuite, nous cartographions les connaissances de l'entreprise (formations, missions, métiers...) sur ces différentes ontologies afin de pouvoir les exploiter et les diffuser. Notre approche de la gestion des connaissances et de la gestion des compétences a permis la réalisation d'un outil offrant de nombreuses fonctionnalités comme la gestion des aires de mobilités, l'analyse stratégique, les annuaires ou encore la gestion des CV. Abstract The globalization of markets, the easing of economical regulation and finally the impact of new information and communication technologies have obliged firms to re-examine the way they manage their knowledge capital (knowledge management) and their human capital (competence management). It is commonly admitted that knowledge plays a slightly strategical role in the organization. The firms who want to establish one politic of management of these capitals will have to face with different problems. To manage that knowledge, a long process of capitalization must be done. That one has different steps like identification, extraction and representation of knowledge and competences. There are some different methods of knowledge management like MASK, CommonKADS or KOD. Unfortunately, those methods are very difficult to implement and are using only some types of knowledge and are consequently more limited in the functionalities they can offer. Knowledge management and competence management are two different domain where it could be interesting to unify those to one. Indeed, competence is very close than knowledge as underline this definition: "a set of knowledge in action in a specified context". We choose in our approach to rely on the concept of competence. Indeed, the competence is one of crucial knowledge in the company, particularly to avoid the loss of know-how or to prevent future needs. Because behind collaborator's competence, we can find company efficiency. Unfortunately, there is no real consensus on the definition of the concept of competence. Moreover, existing different definitions don't permit to develop an operational system. Among other key concept, we can find jobs, mission, project, and training... Moreover, we approach different problems of the competence management under the angle of the knowledge management. Indeed, knowledge and competence are closely linked. Then, we propose a method to build different company repositories (competence, jobs, projects repositories). To model those different repositories we choose ontology because it permits to obtain coherent and consensual definitions of the concepts with support of linguistics diversities too. This building repositories method coupled with this knowledge and competence management approach permitted the realization of a tool offering functionalities like mobility management, strategical analysis, yellow pages or CV management.

A case of oesophageal cancer limited to the mucosa and submucosa

The authors report a case of an oesophageal cancer limited to the mucosa and the submucosa. This case is interesting because of its long history for more than 18 months, the difficulty of fiberoptic diagnosis and the diagnostic value of rigid instruments completed via vital staining by o-toluidine.

On the analysis of travelling waves to a nonlinear flux limited reaction-diffusion equation

In this paper we study the existence and qualitative properties of travelling waves associated to a nonlinear flux limited partial differential equation coupled to a Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov type reaction term. We prove the existence and uniqueness of finite speed moving fronts of C2 classical regularity, but also the existence of discontinuous entropy travelling wave solutions.

Minority Report by Mature Enjoyment of Alcohol in Society Limited

MEAS (Mature Enjoyment of Alcohol in Society Limited) is an alcohol social responsibility organisation committed to tackling the problems of alcohol abuse and misuse. A registered charity, MEAS works in partnership with Government, with other appropriate bodies, including An Garda Siochana, the Road Safety Authority and local authorities and with the alcohol industry to promote the responsible marketing, retailing and use of alcohol in Irish society. Click here to download PDF 176kb

Activity of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii N.E.B. (Euphorbiaceae) latex against Lymnaea columella (Say, 1817) (Pulmonata: Lymnaeidae), intermediate host of Fasciola hepatica, Linnaeus, 1758 (Trematoda: Fasciolidae). 2: limited field-testing

The molluscicidal evaluation of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii (Crown of thorns) against Lymnaea columella snails, intermediate host of Fasciola hepatica, in irrigation ditches of the Pisciculture Station at Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, was studied under limited field conditions. An aqueous solution of the latex at 5 mg/l was tested in two irrigation ditches (experimental and control ditches), after initial sampling of the snail population present. Twenty-four hours after application of the product, it was verified that 97.4% of free L. columella snails and 100% of snails of the same species captive in cages and used as sentinels at three points equidistant from the application site in the experimental ditch, died. For Biomphalaria tenagophila and Melanoides tuberculata snails, present in the experimental ditch, the mortality was 100%, for the species Pomacea spp. the mortality was 40%. No mortality was verified in the free mollusks, or in the sentinels in the ditch used as control. E. splendens var. hislopii latex is thus an efficient natural molluscicide, which may be used as an alternative control agent against L. columella.

Prevalence of HIV type 1 drug resistance mutations in treatment-naïve and experienced patients from resource-limited settings with universal access to antiretroviral therapy: a survey in two small Brazilian cities

Concerns have been raised that universal availability of antiretroviral agents in resource-limited settings might lead to the emergence and spread of resistant strains. We present the largest survey on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) resistance among treatment-naïve and experienced patients followed in small, relatively underprivileged cities in Brazil with universal availability to standard of care antiretroviral combinations. Samples were collected between 2004 and 2006 from 95 patients followed in the cities of Saquarema and Santo Antonio de Pádua, state of Rio de Janeiro. A proviral fragment encompassing protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) regions was generated and drug susceptibility level was inferred. Among 50 strains from drug-naïve subjects, one (2%) had intermediate-level resistance to RT inhibitors. Among 38 patients on therapy as of sampling, 28 (73.7%) had plasma viral load (PVL) below detection limit (26 of whom without evidence of resistance mutations) and 11 (28.9%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility. Only two strains harbored both protease and RT inhibitor mutations. Among seven patients who were off-treatment as of sampling, two (28.5%) harbored strains with reduced susceptibility to RT inhibitors. The relatively high frequency of undetectable PVL among patients on treatment and the overall low prevalence of resistance-associated mutations are reassuring. Continued surveillance, however, is necessary.