Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

An optimal level of technology reliance on foreign partners in a global sourcing partnership: components procurement, technology management and market performance

Existing studies on global sourcing strategy have implicitly adopted a cJosed-systems perspective in which sourcing activities are managed within a multinational company across national boundaries. Produd and process innovations and components procurement that are jointly managed by a consortium of cooperating firms have not been examined. In this paper, we empiricallyexamine the issues concerning sourcing partnerships in an open-systems perspective. Findings suggest that even in a sourcing partnership arrangement with a foreign supplier, the principal firm's ability to procure and control the supply of major components has a positive bearing on its market performance.

The undergraduate level (1st study cycle) as a fundamental platform/standard for the development of Urban and Regional Planning in higher education programs

LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Sistema de apoio à decisão espacial para análise do impacte ambiental da dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos

Neste artigo é apresentado um Sistema de Apoio à Decisão Espacial (SADE) onde os decisores podem facilmente definir diferentes tipos de problemas espaciais recorrendo a diferentes categorias de objetos, pré-definidas ou a definir, associando- lhes características com ou sem dependência espacial, e indicando formas de interferência (impactos) entre essas caracte- rísticas/propriedades. A análise espacial para determinação ou avaliação de configurações alternativas para a localização de diferentes tipos de ocorrências espaciais será feita através da utilização interativa do SADE de acordo com conjuntos de regras intrínsecas aos vários elementos gráficos (objetos, categorias, características, impactos) utilizados na definição dos problemas. O teste à generalidade representativa e analítica do SADE proposto é efectuado recorrendo a um problema concreto, suficientemente específico e complexo, relativo à aplicação de modelos gaussianos para o estudo da dispersão atmosférica de eventuais poluentes resultantes do tratamento de resíduos sólidos. A região em estudo está limitada, neste exemplo, ao município de Coimbra, Portugal. Para este município estão acessíveis, e são utilizados, os dados demográficos ao nível da secção de voto (censos oficiais) e, como tal, é possível a realização de um estudo realístico do impacto com populações humanas.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.

VPP´s multi-level negotiation in smart grids and competitive electricity markets

The increase of distributed generation (DG) has brought about new challenges in electrical networks electricity markets and in DG units operation and management. Several approaches are being developed to manage the emerging potential of DG, such as Virtual Power Players (VPPs), which aggregate DG plants; and Smart Grids, an approach that views generation and associated loads as a subsystem. This paper presents a multi-level negotiation mechanism for Smart Grids optimal operation and negotiation in the electricity markets, considering the advantages of VPPs’ management. The proposed methodology is implemented and tested in MASCEM – a multiagent electricity market simulator, developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations.

A produção de educação nos Açores: a nota de matemática

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais (Desenvolvimento Económico e Social e Economia Pública), 16 de Janeiro de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Interfaces inovadores para a aprendizagem musical

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

Determinants of salivary cotinine level: a population-based study in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted to assess, in active smokers, the relationship of number of cigarettes smoked and other characteristics to salivary cotinine concentrations. METHODS: A random sample of active smokers aged 15 years or older was selected using a stepwise cluster sample strategy, in the year 2000 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The study included 401 subjects. Salivary cotinine concentration was determined using gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. A standard questionnaire was used to collect demographic and smoking behavioral data. The relation between the number of cigarettes smoked in the last 24h and cotinine level was examined by means of a nonparametric fitting technique of robust locally weighted regression. RESULTS: Significantly (p<0.05) higher adjusted mean cotinine levels were found in subjects smoking their first cigarette within five minutes after waking up, and in those smoking 1-20 cigarettes in the last 24h who reported inhaling more than ½ the time. In those smoking 1-20 cigarettes, the slope was significantly higher for those subjects waiting for more than five minutes before smoking their first cigarette after waking up, and those smoking "light" cigarettes when compared with their counterparts. These heterogeneities became negligible and non-significant when subjects with cotinine >40 ng/mL per cigarette were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: There was found a positive association between self-reporting smoking five minutes after waking up, and inhaling more than ½ the time are consistent and higher cotinine levels. These can be markers of dependence and higher nicotine intake. Salivary cotinine proved to be a useful biomarker of recent smoking and can be used in epidemiological studies and smoking cessation programs.

A influência da massagem na sensação retardada de desconforto muscular

Introdução: Apesar dos muitos estudos sobre a temática da sensação retardada de desconforto muscular, atualmente, ainda se discute a explicação dos mecanismos subjacentes a esta condição clínica, bem como, a sua prevenção e tratamento. A literatura sugere a massagem como uma das formas de terapia, contudo, os estudos têm mostrado resultados controversos. Objetivo: Verificar se a massagem aplicada 2 horas após um protocolo de exercício excêntrico tem influência na sensação retardada de desconforto muscular, bem como, se o seu efeito varia dependendo do tempo de aplicação. Métodos: 21 participantes (23,62±1,32 anos; 76,95±12,17 kg; 174,71±4,78 cm; 25,25±4,26 Kg/m 2) foram divididos em três grupos. Foi avaliada a dor, força muscular e a perimetria antes, e 2h, 24h, 48h, e 72h após um protocolo de exercício constituído por três séries de dez repetições de contrações excêntricas dos isquiotibiais do membro dominante, com 80% da força máxima, a uma velocidade constante de 60º/s, numa amplitude entre 0º e 80º, utilizando o dinamómetro isocinético Biodex System 4. A massagem foi efetuada 2 horas após o exercício em dois grupos experimentais com durações diferentes, sendo o terceiro grupo de controlo. Para identificar diferenças entre os grupos no momento inicial e na variável diferença entre o momento inicial e os restantes momentos, recorreu-se ao teste de Kruskal-Wallis, seguido de uma análise Post-Hoc através do teste de Dunn com um nível de significância de 0,05. Resultados: Verificou-se que a massagem teve efeito na redução da dor e na perimetria. Relativamente à força não foram encontradas alterações significativas. Conclusão: Os resultados mostraram que a massagem aplicada 2 horas após o exercício excêntrico, independentemente da duração utilizada, teve efeito na redução da dor, mas não na força muscular. Na perimetria apesar de haver alterações, estas não foram consideradas relevantes.

Sistema de recomendação e personalização de televisão

Com a expansão da Televisão Digital e a convergência entre os meios de difusão convencionais e a televisão sobre IP, o número de canais disponíveis tem aumentado de forma gradual colocando o espectador numa situação de difícil escolha quanto ao programa a visionar. Sobrecarregados com uma grande quantidade de programas e informação associada, muitos espectadores desistem sistematicamente de ver um programa e tendem a efectuar zapping entre diversos canais ou a assistir sempre aos mesmos programas ou canais. Diante deste problema de sobrecarga de informação, os sistemas de recomendação apresentam-se como uma solução. Nesta tese pretende estudar-se algumas das soluções existentes dos sistemas de recomendação de televisão e desenvolver uma aplicação que permita a recomendação de um conjunto de programas que representem potencial interesse ao espectador. São abordados os principais conceitos da área dos algoritmos de recomendação e apresentados alguns dos sistemas de recomendação de programas de televisão desenvolvidos até à data. Para realizar as recomendações foram desenvolvidos dois algoritmos baseados respectivamente em técnicas de filtragem colaborativa e de filtragem de conteúdo. Estes algoritmos permitem através do cálculo da similaridade entre itens ou utilizadores realizar a predição da classificação que um utilizador atribuiria a um determinado item (programa de televisão, filme, etc.). Desta forma é possível avaliar o nível de potencial interesse que o utilizador terá em relação ao respectivo item. Os conjuntos de dados que descrevem as características dos programas (título, género, actores, etc.) são armazenados de acordo com a norma TV-Anytime. Esta norma de descrição de conteúdo multimédia apresenta a vantagem de ser especificamente vocacionada para conteúdo audiovisual e está disponível livremente. O conjunto de recomendações obtidas é apresentado ao utilizador através da interacção com uma aplicação Web que permite a integração de todos os componentes do sistema. Para validação do trabalho foi considerado um dataset de teste designado de htrec2011-movielens-2k e cujo conteúdo corresponde a um conjunto de filmes classificados por diversos utilizadores num ambiente real. Este conjunto de filmes possui, para além da classificações atribuídas pelos utilizadores, um conjunto de dados que descrevem o género, directores, realizadores e país de origem. Para validação final do trabalho foram realizados diversos testes dos quais o mais relevante correspondeu à avaliação da distância entre predições e valores reais e cujo objectivo é classificar a capacidade dos algoritmos desenvolvidos preverem com precisão as classificações que os utilizadores atribuiriam aos itens analisados.