Elaboração de um modelo de previsão de falência nas empresas cotadas na bolsa de valores em Cabo Verde-Estudo empírico de ano 2010-2011

Ser capaz de prever a solidez financeira de uma empresa, tem levado a muitos trabalhos de pesquisa. Rácios financeiros são indicadores chave de solidez financeira de um negócio e ferramentas para determinar a eficiência operacional & financeira de empresas e negócios. Existe um grande número de relações, proposto por vários autores. Altman desenvolveu um modelo de z-score utilizando rácios como sua fundação. Com a ajuda do modelo Z - Score, Altman conseguia prever a eficiência financeira /Falência até 2-3 anos de antecedência. O trabalho de pesquisa a seguir descreve em detalhes os estudos realizados por Altman para prever a falência de empresas. Altman fez mudanças regulares para obter a equação perfeita que poderia prever a falência. O trabalho de pesquisa a seguir resume a pesquisa de Altman para desenvolver o modelo de Pontuação de Altman Z, aplicadas as empresas cotadas na bolsa de valores de Cabo Verde. Pode-se seguramente dizer que o modelo de Z-score de Altman pode ser aplicado a economia moderna para prever a angústia e a falência, dois e três anos de antecedência.Businesses are enterprises which produce goods or render services for profit motive. To be able to predict the financial soundness of a business has led to many research works. Financial ratios are a key indicator of financial soundness of a business. Financial ratios are a tool to determine the operational & financial efficiency of business undertakings. There exist a large number of ratios propounded by various authors. Altman developed a z-score model using ratios as its foundation. With the help of the Z- Score model, Altman could predict financial efficiency /Bankruptcy up to 2-3 years in advance. The following research paper describes in detail the studies carried out by Altman to predict business bankruptcy. Altman made regular changes to achieve the perfect equation which could predict bankruptcy. The The following research paper summaries the research of Altman that have being made to develop the model of Altman Z score, applied to companies listed on stock exchanges in Cape Verde. One can safely say that the model of Altman Z-Score can be applied to modern model economics to predict distress and bankruptcy, two and three years advance.

Interconnection among academic journal platforms: Multilateral versus bilateral interconnection

Electronic academic journal websites provide new services of text and/or datamining and linking, indispensable for e¢ cient allocation of attention among abun-dant sources of scienti?c information. Fully realizing the bene?t of these servicesrequires interconnection among websites. Motivated by CrossRef, a multilateralcitation linking backbone, this paper performs a comparison between multilateralinterconnection through an open platform and bilateral interconnection, and ?ndsthat publishers are fully interconnected in the former regime while they can be par-tially interconnected in the latter regime for exclusion or di¤erentiation motives.Surprisingly, if partial interconnection arises for di¤erentiation motive, exclusion ofsmall publisher(s) occurs more often under multilateral interconnection. We also?nd that in the case of multilateral interconnection, a for-pro?t platform inducesless exclusion than an open platform. Various other extensions are analyzed.

Pay-as-you-go social security and the distribution of bequests

This paper studies the impact of an unfunded social security system on the distribution of bequests in a framework where savings are due both by life cycle and by random altruistic motivations. We show that the impact of social security on the distribution of bequests depends crucially on the importance of the bequest motive in explaining savings behavior. If the bequest motive is strong, then an increase in the social security tax raises the bequests left by altruistic parents. On the other hand, when the importance of bequests in motivating savings is sufficiently low, theincrease in the social security tax could result in a reduction of the bequests left by altruistic parents under some conditions on the attitude of individuals toward risk and on the relative returns associated with private saving and social security. Some implications concerning the transitional effects of introducing an unfunded social security scheme are also discussed.

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

Intra-individual stability of neuromotor tasks from 6 to 18 years: a longitudinal study.

This study investigates the intra-individual stability of the speed of several motor tasks and the intensity of associated movements in 256 children (131 girls, 125 boys) from the Zurich generational study using the Zurich neuromotor assessment battery (ZNA) over a 12-year period from the age of 6 to 18 years. The stability was assessed by correlograms of standard deviation scores calculated from age- and gender-adjusted normative values and compared with standing height and full scale intelligence quotient (IQ). While motor tasks of hand, finger and foot (HFT) and contralateral associated movements (CAM) exhibited a moderate stability (summary measure as correlation coefficients between two measurements made 4 years apart: .61 and .60), other tasks (dynamic balance, static balance and pegboard) were only weakly stable (.46, .47 and .49). IQ and height were more stable than neuromotor components (.72 and .86). We conclude that the moderately stable HFT and CAM may reflect "motor traits", while the stability of the pegboard and balance tasks is weaker because these skills are more experience related and state-dependent.

Cannabis use trajectories among Swiss adolescents

Introduction: Swiss data indicate that one fifth of current 16-20 yearold cannabis users do not use tobacco and seem to do better than those smoking both substances. The aim of this research is to assess the substance use trajectories of cannabis users who do not use tobacco and those who use both substances from age 17 to age 23. Methods: Using data from the TREE longitudinal data base, 328 out of 1796 youth 18.3%; 45% females) who smoked cannabis only (Group CAN; N = 46; 36% females) or concurrently with tobacco (Group CANTAB; N = 284; 46% females) at T1 (2001; age 17) were followed at T4 (2004; age 20) and T7 (2007; age 23). Two additional outcome groups were included at T4 and T7: those using only tobacco (Group TOB) and those not using any of these substances (Group NONE). Data were analyzed separately by gender. Results: Females in group CAN at T1 were as likely to be in group TOB (35%) or NONE (35%) at T4 and the percentages increased to 41% and 47%, respectively, at T7. Males in group CAN at T1 were more likely to be in group TOB at T4 (33%) and T7 (61%) than in group NONE (23% and 15%, respectively). Females in group CANTOB at T1 were mainly in group TOB at T4 (52%) and T7 (61%), while males in CANTOB at T1 remained mainly in the same group at T4 (75%) and T7 (61%). Only 10% of females and 5% of males in group CANTOB at T1 were in group NONE at T4 and 15% and 12%, respectively, at T7. Conclusions: Adolescents using only cannabis are globally less likely to continue using cannabis in young adulthood than those using both substances, although a fair percentage (specially males) switch to tobacco use. This result confirms previous research indicating that nicotine dependence and persistent cigarette smoking may be the main public health consequences of cannabis use. A gender difference arises among those using tobacco and cannabis at age 17: while females become mainly tobacco smokers, the majority of males continue to use both substances. Although these results could be explained by a substitution effect, teenagers using both substances seem to have gone beyond the experimentation phase and should be a motive for concern.

Les captacions d'aigua destinada al consum humà al Principat d'Andorra: Anàlisi del marc jurídic actual, definició del procediment d'autorització i sistema d'informació geogràfic sobre les captacions i els perímetres de protecció associats

RESUM L’aigua és un recurs limitat necessari per a l’establiment de qualsevol forma de vida sobre la Terra. Aquest recurs, es veu regit pel cicle hidrològic i durant les diferents fases del seu cicle, l’aigua pot ser captada per ser aprofitada per l’ésser humà. En els darrers anys, la necessitat d’aigua per a la població ha estat incrementada provocant un impacte negatiu sobre aquest recurs. Per aquest motiu sorgeix la necessitat de crear polítiques globals per protegir l’aigua que vagin encaminades a minimitzar l’efecte negatiu provocat per l’home. Tota captació d’aigua destinada al consum humà ha de garantir uns paràmetres de qualitat i per tal de poder aconseguir aquest objectiu amb eficàcia és imprescindible l’aplicació d’una eina legal molt important: els perímetres de protecció. A l’article 6 de la Llei de policia i protecció de les aigües del 31 de juliol del 1985, s’estableix que tota captació d’aigua potable haurà de quedar aïllada mitjançant un perímetre de protecció, a l’interior del qual no podrà dur-se a terme cap activitat sense prèvia autorització de Govern. Els objectius principals d’aquest estudi son recopilar la informació existent en referència a les captacions d’aigua i els seus respectius perímetres de protecció, elaborar una base de dades que pugui contenir tota la informació existent i elaborar cartografia especifica amb la finalitat de realitzar una diagnosi de la situació actual de les captacions i perímetres associats i identificar els principals riscos potencials existents en aquestes àrees. Entre les conclusions mes rellevants obtingudes amb aquest treball, cal destacar que s’ha constatat que algunes activitats antròpiques potencialment contaminants es troben situades en zones properes a les captacions destinades a consum humà, inclòs dins dels seus perímetres de protecció, amb el conseqüent risc que aquesta situació comporta.

Psychotherapeutic case conceptualization using plan analysis for bipolar affective disorder.

Valid individualized case conceptualization methodologies, such as plan analysis, are rarely used for the psychotherapeutic treatment conceptualization and planning of bipolar affective disorder (BD), even if data do exist showing that psychotherapy interventions might be enhanced by applying such analyses for treatment planning for several groups of patients. We applied plan analysis as a research tool (Caspar, 1995) to N=30 inpatients presenting BD, who were interviewed twice. Our study aimed at producing a prototypical plan structure encompassing the most relevant data from the 30 individual case conceptualizations. Special focus was given to links with emotions and coping plans. Inter-rater reliability of these plan analyses was considered sufficient. Results suggest the presence of two subtypes based on plananalytic principles: emotion control and relationship control, along with a mixed form. These subtypes are discussed with regard to inherent plananalytic conflicts, specific emotions and coping plans, as well as symptom level and type. Finally, conclusions are drawn for enhancing psychotherapeutic practice with BD patients, based on the motive-oriented therapeutic relationship.

Deviant trajectories of cortical maturation in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS): a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is associated with an increased susceptibility to develop schizophrenia. Despite a large body of literature documenting abnormal brain structure in 22q11DS, cerebral changes associated with brain maturation in 22q11DS remained largely unexplored. To map cortical maturation from childhood to adulthood in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, we used cerebral MRI from 59 patients with 22q11DS, aged 6 to 40, and 80 typically developing controls; three year follow-up assessments were also available for 32 patients and 31 matched controls. Cross-sectional cortical thickness trajectories during childhood and adolescence were approximated in age bins. Repeated-measures were also conducted with the longitudinal data. Within the group of patients with 22q11DS, exploratory measures of cortical thickness differences related to COMT polymorphism, IQ, and schizophrenia were also conducted. We observed deviant trajectories of cortical thickness changes with age in patients with 22q11DS. In affected preadolescents, larger prefrontal thickness was observed compared to age-matched controls. Afterward, we observed greater cortical loss in 22q11DS with a convergence of cortical thickness values by the end of adolescence. No compelling evidence for an effect of COMT polymorphism on cortical maturation was observed. Within 22q11DS, significant differences in cortical thickness were related to cognitive level in children and adolescents, and to schizophrenia in adults. Deviant trajectories of cortical thickness from childhood to adulthood provide strong in vivo cues for a defect in the programmed synaptic elimination, which in turn may explain the susceptibility of patients with 22q11DS to develop psychosis.

Individualizing exposure therapy of PTSD: the case of Caroline

In therapy for chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), prolonged exposure (PE) to stimuli associated with an original trauma experience is considered a state-of-the-art treatment method. The present case report outlines the use of Foa and Rothbaum's (1998) manual for this type of treatment in the year-long, 40-session treatment of Caroline, an adult female victim of child sexual abuse. The manual was supplemented by Caspar's (1995, 2007) Plan Analysis technique for individualized case formulation and treatment planning, along with Caspar's concept of the Motive-Oriented Therapeutic Relationship (MOTR). As indicated by standardized, quantitative measures, by changes in the client's behavior patterns, and by the client's subjective report, the treatment was very effective. An analysis of the therapy process illustrates the importance of a combination of manual-based procedures with individualized case formulations and interventions. The case is discussed in the context of enhancing the cognitive-behavioral treatment of PTSD.

The role of unions in an endogenous growth model with human capital

In this paper we study the relationship between unions and growth in a two-sector overlapping generations model with altruism and humancapital. This relationship depends on the interaction between the technology in the sector that produces human capital, the degreeof unionization of the economy and the operativeness of the bequest motive.

Tc-99m-MAA SPECT-derived tumor-to-normal liver ratios for partition model dosimetry in selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT)

Aim: When planning SIRT using 90Y microspheres, the partition model is used to refine the activity calculated by the body surface area (BSA) method to potentially improve the safety and efficacy of treatment. For this partition model dosimetry, accurate determination of mean tumor-to-normal liver ratio (TNR) is critical since it directly impacts absorbed dose estimates. This work aimed at developing and assessing a reliable methodology for the calculation of 99mTc-MAA SPECT/CT-derived TNR ratios based on phantom studies. Materials and methods: IQ NEMA (6 hot spheres) and Kyoto liver phantoms with different hot/background activity concentration ratios were imaged on a SPECT/CT (GE Infinia Hawkeye 4). For each reconstruction with the IQ phantom, TNR quantification was assessed in terms of relative recovery coefficients (RC) and image noise was evaluated in terms of coefficient of variation (COV) in the filled background. RCs were compared using OSEM with Hann, Butterworth and Gaussian filters, as well as FBP reconstruction algorithms. Regarding OSEM, RCs were assessed by varying different parameters independently, such as the number of iterations (i) and subsets (s) and the cut-off frequency of the filter (fc). The influence of the attenuation and diffusion corrections was also investigated. Furthermore, both 2D-ROIs and 3D-VOIs contouring were compared. For this purpose, dedicated Matlab© routines were developed in-house for automatic 2D-ROI/3D-VOI determination to reduce intra-user and intra-slice variability. Best reconstruction parameters and RCs obtained with the IQ phantom were used to recover corrected TNR in case of the Kyoto phantom for arbitrary hot-lesion size. In addition, we computed TNR volume histograms to better assess uptake heterogeneityResults: The highest RCs were obtained with OSEM (i=2, s=10) coupled with the Butterworth filter (fc=0.8). Indeed, we observed a global 20% RC improvement over other OSEM settings and a 50% increase as compared to the best FBP reconstruction. In any case, both attenuation and diffusion corrections must be applied, thus improving RC while preserving good image noise (COV<10%). Both 2D-ROI and 3D-VOI analysis lead to similar results. Nevertheless, we recommend using 3D-VOI since tumor uptake regions are intrinsically 3D. RC-corrected TNR values lie within 17% around the true value, substantially improving the evaluation of small volume (<15 mL) regions. Conclusions: This study reports the multi-parameter optimization of 99mTc MAA SPECT/CT images reconstruction in planning 90Y dosimetry for SIRT. In phantoms, accurate quantification of TNR was obtained using OSEM coupled with Butterworth and RC correction.

The role of unions in an endogenous growth model with human capital

In this paper we study the relationship between unions and growth in a two-sector overlapping generations model with altruism and humancapital. This relationship depends on the interaction between the technology in the sector that produces human capital, the degreeof unionization of the economy and the operativeness of the bequest motive.

Neurodevelopment outcome of newborns with cerebral subependymal pseudocysts at 18 and 46 months: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Subependymal pseudocysts (SEPC) are cerebral periventricular cysts located on the floor of the lateral ventricle and result from regression of the germinal matrix. They are increasingly diagnosed on neonatal cranial ultrasound. While associated pathologies are reported, information about long-term prognosis is missing, and we aimed to investigate long-term follow-up of these patients. STUDY DESIGN: Newborns diagnosed with SEPC were enrolled for follow-up. Neurodevelopment outcome was assessed at 6, 18 and 46 months of age. RESULTS: 74 newborns were recruited: we found a high rate of antenatal events (63%), premature infants (66% <37 weeks, 31% <32 weeks) and twins (30%). MRI was performed in 31 patients, and cystic periventricular leukomalacia (c-PVL) was primarily falsely diagnosed in 9 of them. Underlying disease was diagnosed in 17 patients, 8 with congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, 5 with genetic and 4 with metabolic disease. Neurological examination (NE) at birth was normal for patients with SEPCs and no underlying disease, except one. Mean Developmental Quotient and IQ of these patients was 98.2 (±9.6SD; range 77-121), 94.6 (±14.2SD; 71-120) and 99.6 (±12.3SD; 76-120) at 6, 18 and 46 months of age, respectively, with no differences between the subtypes of SEPC. A subset analysis showed no outcome differences between preterm infants with or without SEPC, or between preterm of <32 GA and ≥32 GA. CONCLUSIONS: Neurodevelopment of newborns with SEPC was normal when no underlying disease was present. This study suggests that if NE is normal at birth and congenital CMV infection can be excluded, then no further investigations are needed. Moreover, it is crucial to differentiate SEPC from c-PVL which carries a poor prognosis.

Correlations between negative-induced cerebral dynamics and idiopathic intellectual disability: an EEG study

Intellectual disability has long been associated with deficits in socio-emotional processing. However, studies investigating brain dynamics of maladaptive socio-emotional skills associated with intellectual disability are scarce. Here, we compared differences in brain activity between low intelligence quotient (I.Q.<75, N=13) and normal controls (N=15) while evaluating their subjective emotions. Positive (P) and negative (N) valenced pictures were presented one at a time to participants of both groups, at a rate of ¾. The task required that each participant evaluate their subjective emotion and press a predefined push-button when done, alternatively P and N. Electroencephalographic (EEG) signals were continuously recorded, and the 1000ms time window following each picture was analyzed offline for power in frequency domain. Alpha low (8-10Hz) and upper (10-13Hz) frequency bands were then compared for both groups and for both P and N emotions in 12 distributed scalp electrodes. The qualitative evaluation of emotions was similar between both groups, with constant longer reaction times for the low IQ participants. The EEG signal comparison shows marked power decrease in upper alpha frequency range for N emotions in low intelligence group. Otherwise no significant difference was noticed between low and normal IQ. Main findings of the present study are (1) results do not support the hypothesis that impairment in developmental intelligence roots in maladaptive emotional processing; (2) the strong alpha power suppression during negative-induced emotions suggests the involvement of an extended neural network and more effortful inhibition processes than positive ones. We call for further studies with a larger sample.