987 resultados para intermittent


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Medium bedding sand which is commonly available in coastal sedimentary deposits, and a marine polychaete-worm species from Moreton Bay recently classified as Perinereis helleri (Nereididae), were deployed in a simple low-maintenance sand filter design that potentially has application at large scale. Previous work had shown that this physical and biological combination can provide a new option for saline wastewater treatment, since the worms help to prevent sand filter blocking with organic debris and offer a profitable by-product. To test the application of this new concept in a commercial environment, six 1.84 m2 Polychaete-assisted sand filters were experimentally tested for their ability to treat wastewater from a semi-intensive prawn culture pond. Polychaetes produced exclusively on the waste nutrients that collected in these gravity-driven sand filters were assessed for their production levels and nutritional contents. Water parameters studied included temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation/ reduction potential (redox), suspended solids, chlorophyll a, biological oxygen demand (BOD), and common forms of nitrogen and phosphorus. Pond water which had percolated through the sand bed had significantly lower pH, DO and redox levels compared with inflow water. Suspended solids and chlorophyll a levels were consistently more than halved by the process. Reductions in BOD appeared dependant on regular subsurface flows. Only marginal reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus were documented, but their forms were altered in a potentially useful way: dissolved forms (ammonia and orthophosphate) were generated by the process, and this remineralisation also seemed to be accentuated by intermittent flow patterns. Flow rates of approximately 1,500 L m-2 d-1 were achieved suggesting that a 1 ha polychaete bed of this nature could similarly treat the discharge from a 10 ha semi-intensive prawn farm. Sixteen weeks after stocking sand beds with one-month-old P. helleri, over 3.6 kg of polychaete biomass (wet weight) was recovered from the trial. Production on a sand bed area basis was 328 g m-2. Similar (P>0.05) overall biomass production was found for the two stocking densities tested (2000 and 6000 m-2; n = 3), but survival was lower and more worms were graded as small (<0.6 g) when produced at the higher density (28.2 ± 1.5 % and approx. 88 %, respectively) compared with the lower density (46.8 ± 4.4 % and approx. 76 %, respectively). When considered on a weight for weight basis, about half of the worm biomass produced was generally suitable for use as bait. The nutritional contents of the worms harvested were analysed for different stocking densities and graded sizes. These factors did not significantly affect their percentages of dry matter (DM) (18.23 ± 0.57 %), ash (19.77 ± 0.80 % of DM) or gross energy 19.39 ± 0.29 MJ kg-1 DM) (n = 12). Although stocking density did not affect the worms’ nitrogen and phosphorus contents, small worms had a higher mean proportion of nitrogen and phosphorus (10.57 ± 0.17 % and 0.70 ± 0.01 % of DM, respectively) than large worms (9.99 ± 0.12 % and 0.65 ± 0.01 % of DM, respectively) (n = 6). More lipid was present in large worms grown at the medium density (11.20 ± 0.19 %) compared with the high density (9.50 ± 0.31 %) and less was generally found in small worms (7.1-7.6 % of DM). Mean cholesterol and total phospholipid levels were 5.24 ± 0.15 mg g-1 and 13.66 ± 2.15 mg g-1 DM, respectively (n = 12). Of the specific phospholipids tested, phosphatidyl-serine or sphingomyelin were below detection limits (<0.05 mg g-1), whilst mean levels of phosphatidyl-ethanolamine, phosphatidyl-inositol, phosphatidyl-choline and lysophosphatidyl-choline were 6.89 ± 1.09, 0.89 ± 0.26, 4.04 ± 1.17 and 1.84 ± 0.37 mg g-1, respectively (n = 12). Culture density generally had a more pronounced effect on phospholipid contents than did size of worms. By contrast, worm size had a more pronounced effect on total fatty acid contents, with large worms containing significantly higher (P<0.001) levels on a DM basis (46.88 ± 2.46 mg g-1) than smaller worms (27.76 ± 1.28 mg g-1). A very broad range of fatty acids were detected with palmitic acid being the most heavily represented class (up to 14.23 ± 0.49 mg g-1 DM or 27.28 ± 0.22 % of total fatty acids). Other heavily represented classes included stearic acid (7.4-8.8 %), vaccenic acid (6.8-7.8 %), arachidonic acid (3.5-4.4 %), eicosapentaenoic acid (9.9-13.8 %) and docosenoic acid (5.7-7.0 %). Stocking density did not affect (P>0.05) the levels of amino acids present in polychaete DM, but there was generally less of each amino acid tested on a weight per weight basis in large worms than in small worms. This difference was significant (P<0.05) for the most heavily represented classes being glutamic acid (73-77 mg g-1), aspartic acid (50-54 mg g-1), and glycine (46-53 mg g-1). These results demonstrate how this polychaete species can be planted and sorted at harvest according to various strategies aimed at providing biomass with specific physical and nutritional qualities for different uses.

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Delay and disruption tolerant networks (DTNs) are computer networks where round trip delays and error rates are high and disconnections frequent. Examples of these extreme networks are space communications, sensor networks, connecting rural villages to the Internet and even interconnecting commodity portable wireless devices and mobile phones. Basic elements of delay tolerant networks are a store-and-forward message transfer resembling traditional mail delivery, an opportunistic and intermittent routing, and an extensible cross-region resource naming service. Individual nodes of the network take an active part in routing the traffic and provide in-network data storage for application data that flows through the network. Application architecture for delay tolerant networks differs also from those used in traditional networks. It has become feasible to design applications that are network-aware and opportunistic, taking an advantage of different network connection speeds and capabilities. This might change some of the basic paradigms of network application design. DTN protocols will also support in designing applications which depend on processes to be persistent over reboots and power failures. DTN protocols could also be applicable to traditional networks in cases where high tolerance to delays or errors would be desired. It is apparent that challenged networks also challenge the traditional strictly layered model of network application design. This thesis provides an extensive introduction to delay tolerant networking concepts and applications. Most attention is given to challenging problems of routing and application architecture. Finally, future prospects of DTN applications and implementations are envisioned through recent research results and an interview with an active researcher of DTN networks.

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The modern diet has become highly sweetened, resulting in unprecedented levels of sugar consumption, particularly among adolescents. While chronic long-term sugar intake is known to contribute to the development of metabolic disorders including obesity and type II diabetes, little is known regarding the direct consequences of long-term, binge-like sugar consumption on the brain. Because sugar can cause the release of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) similarly to drugs of abuse, we investigated changes in the morphology of neurons in this brain region following short- (4 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks) binge-like sucrose consumption using an intermittent two-bottle choice paradigm. We used Golgi-Cox staining to impregnate medium spiny neurons (MSNs) from the NAc core and shell of short- and long-term sucrose consuming rats and compared these to age-matched water controls. We show that prolonged binge-like sucrose consumption significantly decreased the total dendritic length of NAc shell MSNs compared to age-matched control rats. We also found that the restructuring of these neurons resulted primarily from reduced distal dendritic complexity. Conversely, we observed increased spine densities at the distal branch orders of NAc shell MSNs from long-term sucrose consuming rats. Combined, these results highlight the neuronal effects of prolonged binge-like intake of sucrose on NAc shell MSN morphology.

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Juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (JNCL) is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases in childhood. Its clinical onset, with visual failure as the first sign, is between the ages of 4 to 8 years. During the disease progress, epilepsy, motor symptoms, cognitive decline, and psychiatric symptoms become apparent. It leads to premature death between ages 15 and 30. Treatment consists of symptomatic drug administration and various forms of rehabilitation, but to date, no curative treatment exists. To gain a more comprehensive picture of psychiatric problems, symptoms were evaluated by the Child Behavior Checklist, the Teacher Report Form, and the Children s Depression Inventory. The JNCL patients had a great number of severe psychiatric symptoms, with wide inter-individual variability. The most common symptoms were social, thought, attention, and sleep problems, somatic complaints, and aggressive behaviour. Patients with psychotropic treatment had more problems than did those without psychotropic treatment, and female patients had more problems than did males. Between 10 and 20% of the patients reported depressive symptoms. In a 5-year follow-up, [123I]β-CIT SPECT and MRI revealed a tendency of decreasing serotonin transporter (SERT) availability and progressive brain atrophy. The correlation between changes in midbrain SERT and total brain volume was positive; no correlation appeared between SERT or brain atrophy and depressive symptoms. Thus, it seems likely that the low SERT availability is associated with progressive brain atrophy; it may also predispose towards depression, however. An open survey of psychotropic drugs and their efficacy was performed on JNCL patients in Finland. The most commonly used psychotropic drugs were the antidepressant citalopram and the antipsychotic risperidone. Their efficacy was good or satisfactory in the majority of cases and they seemed well tolerated. Quetiapine had a marked effect on one patient with a history of severe psychotic symptoms. Glutamate decarboxylase 65 autoantibodies (GAD65ab), found in JNCL patients, indicate that an immunomediated reaction against GAD or GABAergic neurons may play a part in the underlying pathogenetic mechanism. GAD65ab s also appeared in the serum of all eight JNCL patients included and intermittent corticosteroid therapy was initiated in all cases. After one year, the GAD65ab s had disappeared in the two oldest patients, who experienced an improvement in motor symptoms and alertness associated with their prednisolone therapy. Two younger patients experienced a significant IQ increase, but no change in GADab s. A randomized study with longer follow-up time is needed, however, to clarify the effect of prednisolone on disease progression.

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Acute renal failure (ARF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by rapidly decreasing glomerular filtration rate, which results in disturbances in electrolyte- and acid-base homeostasis, derangement of extracellular fluid volume, and retention of nitrogenous waste products, and is often associated with decreased urine output. ARF affects about 5-25% of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and is linked to high mortality and morbidity rates. In this thesis outcome of critically ill patients with ARF and factors related to outcome were evaluated. A total of 1662 patients from two ICUs and one acute dialysis unit in Helsinki University Hospital were included. In study I the prevalence of ARF was calculated and classified according to two ARF-specific scoring methods, the RIFLE classification and the classification created by Bellomo et al. (2001). Study II evaluated monocyte human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-DR (HLA-DR) expression and plasma levels of one proinflammatory (interleukin (IL) 6) and two anti-inflammatory (IL-8 and IL-10) cytokines in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study III investigated serum cystatin C as a marker of renal function in ARF and its power in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study IV evaluated the effect of intermittent hemodiafiltration (HDF) on myoglobin elimination from plasma in severe rhabdomyolysis. Study V assessed long-term survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in ARF patients. Neither of the ARF-specific scoring methods presented good discriminative power regarding hospital mortality. The maximum RIFLE score for the first three days in the ICU was an independent predictor of hospital mortality. As a marker of renal dysfunction, serum cystatin C failed to show benefit compared with plasma creatinine in detecting ARF or predicting patient survival. Neither cystatin C nor plasma concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, nor monocyte HLA-DR expression were clinically useful in predicting mortality in ARF patients. HDF may be used to clear myoglobin from plasma in rhabdomyolysis, especially if the alkalization of diuresis does not succeed. The long-term survival of patients with ARF was found to be poor. The HRQoL of those who survive is lower than that of the age- and gender-matched general population.

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Objective: Patients with atopic dermatitis often have a poor long-term response to conventional topical or systemic treatments. Staphylococcal superinfections, skin atrophy due to corticosteroid use, and asthma and allergic rhinitis are common. Only a few, usually short-term, studies have addressed the effects of different treatments on these problems. Tacrolimus ointment is the first topical compound suitable for long-term treatment. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the effects of long-term topical tacrolimus treatment on cutaneous staphylococcal colonization, collagen synthesis, and symptoms and signs of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Methods: Patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis were treated with intermittent 0.1% tacrolimus ointment in prospective, open studies lasting for 6 to 48 months. In Study I, cutaneous staphylococcal colonization was followed for 6 to 12 months. In Study II, skin thickness and collagen synthesis were followed by skin ultrasound and procollagen I and III propeptide concentrations of suction blister fluid samples for 12 to 24 months and compared with a group of corticosteroid-treated atopic dermatitis patients and with a group of healthy subjects. Study III was a cross-sectional study of the occurrence of respiratory symptoms, bronchial hyper-responsiveness, and sputum eosinophilia in atopic dermatitis patients and healthy controls. In Study V, the same parameters as in Study III were assessed in atopic dermatitis patients before and after 12 to 48 months of topical tacrolimus treatment. Study IV was a retrospective follow-up of the effect of tacrolimus 0.03% ointment on severe atopic blepharoconjunctivitis and conjunctival cytology. Results: The clinical response to topical tacrolimus was very good in all studies (p≤0.008). Staphylococcal colonization decreased significantly, and the effect was sustained throughout the study (p=0.01). Skin thickness (p<0.001) and markers of collagen synthesis (p<0.001) increased in the tacrolimus-treated patients significantly, whereas they decreased or remained unchanged in the corticosteroid-treated controls. Symptoms of asthma and allergic rhinitis (p<0.0001), bronchial hyper-responsiveness (p<0.0001), and sputum eosinophilia (p<0.0001) were significantly more common in patients with atopic dermatitis than in healthy controls, especially in subjects with positive skin prick tests or elevated serum immunoglobulin E. During topical tacrolimus treatment the asthma and rhinitis (p=0.005 and p=0.002) symptoms and bronchial hyper-responsiveness (p=0.02) decreased significantly, and serum immunoglobulin E and sputum eosinophils showed a decreasing trend in patients with the best treatment response. Treatment of atopic blepharoconjunctivitis resulted in a marked clinical response and a significant decrease in eosinophils, lymphocytes, and neutrophils in the conjunctival cytology samples. No significant adverse effects or increase in skin infections occurred in any study. Conclusions: The studies included in this thesis, except the study showing an increase in skin collagen synthesis in tacrolimus-treated patients, were uncontrolled, warranting certain reservations. The results suggest, however, that tacrolimus ointment has several beneficial effects in the long-term intermittent treatment of atopic dermatitis. Tacrolimus ointment efficiently suppresses the T cell-induced inflammation of atopic dermatitis. It has a normalizing effect on the function of the skin measured by the decrease in staphylococcal colonization. It does not cause skin atrophy as do corticosteroids but restores the skin collagen synthesis in patients who have used corticosteroids. Tacrolimus ointment has no marked systemic effect, as the absorption of the drug is minimal and decreases along with skin improvement. The effects on the airway: decrease in bronchial hyper-responsiveness and respiratory symptoms, can be speculated to be caused by the decrease in T cell trafficking from the skin to the respiratory tissues as the skin inflammation resolves, as well as inhibition of epicutaneous invasion of various antigens causing systemic sensitization when the skin barrier is disrupted as in atopic dermatitis. Patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis seem to benefit from efficient long-term treatment with topical tacrolimus.

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The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

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Airway inflammation is a key feature of bronchial asthma. In asthma management, according to international guidelines, the gold standard is anti-inflammatory treatment. Currently, only conventional procedures (i.e., symptoms, use of rescue medication, PEF-variability, and lung function tests) were used to both diagnose and evaluate the results of treatment with anti-inflammatory drugs. New methods for evaluation of degree of airway inflammation are required. Nitric oxide (NO) is a gas which is produced in the airways of healthy subjects and especially produced in asthmatic airways. Measurement of NO from the airways is possible, and NO can be measured from exhaled air. Fractional exhaled NO (FENO) is increased in asthma, and the highest concentrations are measured in asthmatic patients not treated with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Steroid-treated patients with asthma had levels of FENO similar to those of healthy controls. Atopic asthmatics had higher levels of FENO than did nonatopic asthmatics, indicating that level of atopy affected FENO level. Associations between FENO and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) occur in asthma. The present study demonstrated that measurement of FENO had good reproducibility, and the FENO variability was reasonable both short- and long-term in both healthy subjects and patients with respiratory symptoms or asthma. We demonstrated the upper normal limit for healthy subjects, which was 12 ppb calculated from two different healthy study populations. We showed that patients with respiratory symptoms who did not fulfil the diagnostic criteria of asthma had FENO values significantly higher than in healthy subjects, but significantly lower than in asthma patients. These findings suggest that BHR to histamine is a sensitive indicator of the effect of ICS and a valuable tool for adjustment of corticosteroid treatment in mild asthma. The findings further suggest that intermittent treatment periods of a few weeks’ duration are insufficient to provide long-term control of BHR in patients with mild persistent asthma. Moreover, during the treatment with ICS changes in BHR and changes in FENO were associated. FENO level was associated with BHR measured by a direct (histamine challenge) or indirect method (exercise challenge) in steroid-naïve symptomatic, non-smoking asthmatics. Although these associations could be found only in atopics, FENO level in nonatopic asthma was also increased. It can thus be concluded that assessment of airway inflammation by measuring FENO can be useful for clinical purposes. The methodology of FENO measurements is now validated. Especially in those patients with respiratory symptoms who did not fulfil the diagnostic criteria of asthma, FENO measurement can aid in treatment decisions. Serial measurement of FENO during treatment with ICS can be a complementary or an alternative method for evaluation in patients with asthma.

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Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of bubble chambers containing branches of live coral in filtered reef seawater were analysed using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). When the coral released mucus it was a source of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and isoprene; however, these VOCs were not emitted to the chamber headspace from mucus-free coral. This finding, which suggests that coral is an intermittent source of DMS and isoprene, was supported by the observation of occasional large pulses of atmospheric DMS (DMSa) over Heron Island reef on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, in the austral winter. The highest DMSa pulse (320 ppt) was three orders of magnitude less than the DMS mixing ratio (460 ppb) measured in the headspace of a dynamically purged bubble chamber containing a mucus-coated branch of Acropora aspera indicating that coral reefs can be strong point sources of DMSa. Static headspace GC-MS analysis of coral fragments identified mainly DMS and seven other minor reduced sulfur compounds including dimethyl disulfide, methyl mercaptan, and carbon disulfide, while coral reef seawater was an indicated source of methylene chloride, acetone, and methyl ethyl ketone. The VOCs emitted by coral and reef seawater are capable of producing new atmospheric particles < 15 nm diameter as observed at Heron Island reef. DMS and isoprene are known to play a role in low-level cloud formation, so aerosol precursors such as these could influence regional climate through a sea surface temperature regulation mechanism hypothesized to operate over the GBR.

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We share our experience in planning, designing and deploying a wireless sensor network of one square kilometre area. Environmental data such as soil moisture, temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity are collected in this area situated in the semi-arid region of Karnataka, India. It is a hope that information derived from this data will benefit the marginal farmer towards improving his farming practices. Soon after establishing the need for such a project, we begin by showing the big picture of such a data gathering network, the software architecture we have used, the range measurements needed for determining the sensor density, and the packaging issues that seem to play a crucial role in field deployments. Our field deployment experiences include designing with intermittent grid power, enhancing software tools to aid quicker and effective deployment, and flash memory corruption. The first results on data gathering look encouraging.

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Stick-slip is usually observed in driven dissipative threshold systems. In these set of lectures, we discuss, some generic and system specific features of stickslip systems by considering a few examples wherein there has been some progress in understanding the associated dynamics. In most stick slip systems, both at low and high drive rates, the system slides smoothly, but within a window of drive rates, the motion becomes intermittent; the system alternately “sticks” till the stress builds up to a threshold value, and then “slips” when the stress is rapidly released. This intermittent motion can be traced to the existence of an unstable branch separating the two resistive branches in the force-drive-rate relation. While the two resistive branches are experimentally measurable, the unstable branch is usually not measurable and is only inferred.

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Aims. Following an earlier proposal for the origin of twist in the magnetic fields of solar active regions, we model the penetration of a wrapped up background poloidal field into a toroidal magnetic flux tube rising through the solar convective zone.Methods. The rise of the straight, cylindrical flux tube is followed by numerically solving the induction equation in a comoving Lagrangian frame, while an external poloidal magnetic field is assumed to be radially advected onto the tube with a speed corresponding to the rise velocity.Results. One prediction of our model is the existence of a ring of reverse current helicity on the periphery of active regions. On the other hand, the amplitude of the resulting twist depends sensitively on the assumed structure ( diffuse vs. concentrated/intermittent) of the active region magnetic field right before its emergence, and on the assumed vertical profile of the poloidal field. Nevertheless, in the model with the most plausible choice of assumptions a mean twist comparable to the observations results.Conclusions. Our results indicate that the contribution of this mechanism to the twist can be quite significant, and under favourable circumstances it can potentially account for most of the current helicity observed in active regions.

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Boundary-layer transition at different free-stream turbulence levels has been investigated using the particle-image velocimetry technique. The measurements show organized positive and negative fluctuations of the streamwise fluctuating velocity component, which resemble the forward and backward jet-like structures reported in the direct numerical simulation of bypass transition. These fluctuations are associated with unsteady streaky structures. Large inclined high shear-layer regions are also observed and the organized negative fluctuations are found to appear consistently with these inclined shear layers, along with highly inflectional instantaneous streamwise velocity profiles. These inflectional velocity profiles are similar to those in the ribbon-induced boundary-layer transition. An oscillating-inclined shear layer appears to be the turbulent spot-precursor. The measurements also enabled to compare the actual turbulent spot in bypass transition with the simulated one. A proper orthogonal decomposition analysis of the fluctuating velocity field is carried out. The dominant flow structures of the organized positive and negative fluctuations are captured by the first few eigenfunction modes carrying most of the fluctuating energy. The similarity in the dominant eigenfunctions at different Reynolds numbers suggests that the flow prevails its structural identity even in intermittent flows. This analysis also indicates the possibility of the existence of a spatio-temporal symmetry associated with a travelling wave in the flow.

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Langevin dynamics simulation studies have been employed to calculate the temperature dependent free energy surface and folding characteristics of a 500 monomer long linear alkane (polyethylene) chain with a realistic interaction potential. Both equilibrium and temperature quench simulation studies have been carried out. Using the shape anisotropy parameter (S) of the folded molecule as the order parameter, we find a weakly first order phase transition between the high-temperature molten globule and low-temperature rodlike crystalline states separated by a small barrier of the order of k(B)T. Near the melting temperature (580 K), we observe an intriguing intermittent fluctuation with pronounced ``1/f noise characteristics'' between these two states with large difference in shape and structure. We have also studied the possibilities of different pathways of folding to states much below the melting point. At 300 K starting from the all-trans linear configuration, the chain folds stepwise into a very regular fourfold crystallite with very high shape anisotropy. Whereas, when quenched from a high temperature (900 K) random coil regime, we identify a two step transition from the random coiled state to a molten globulelike state and, further, to a anisotropic rodlike state. The trajectory reveals an interesting coupling between the two order parameters, namely, radius of gyration (R-g) and the shape anisotropy parameter (S). The rodlike final state of the quench trajectory is characterized by lower shape anisotropy parameter and significantly larger number of gauche defects as compared to the final state obtained through equilibrium simulation starting from all-trans linear chain. The quench study shows indication of a nucleationlike pathway from the molten globule to the rodlike state involving an underlying rugged energy landscape. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3509398]

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The finite predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is determined by its aperiodic variability. To gain insight regarding the predictability of such a system, a series of diagnostic studies has been carried out to investigate the role of convergence feedback in producing the aperiodic behavior of the standard version of the Cane-Zebiak model. In this model, an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) increases atmospheric heating by enhancing local evaporation (SST anomaly feedback) and low-level convergence (convergence feedback). The convergence feedback is a nonlinear function of the background mean convergence field. For the set of standard parameters used in the model, it is shown that the convergence feedback contributes importantly to the aperiodic behaviour of the model. As the strength of the convergence feedback is increased from zero to its standard value, the model variability goes from a periodic regime to an aperiodic regime through a broadening of the frequency spectrum around the basic periodicity of about 4 years. Examination of the forcing associated with the convergence feedback reveals that it is intermittent, with relatively large amplitude only during 2 or 3 months in the early part of the calendar year. This seasonality in the efficiency of the convergence feedback is related to the strong seasonality of the mean convergence over the eastern Pacific. It is shown that if the mean convergence field is fixed at its March value, aperiodic behavior is produced even in the absence of annual cycles in the other mean fields. On the, other hand, if the mean convergence field is fixed at its September value, the coupled model evolution remains close to periodic, even in the presence of the annual cycle in the other fields. The role of convergence feedback on the aperiodic variability of the model for other parameter regimes is also examined. It is shown that a range exists in the strength of the SST anomaly feedback for which the model variability is aperiodic even without the convergence feedback. It appears that in the absence of convergence feedback, enhancement of the strength of the air-sea coupling in the model through other physical processes also results in aperiodicity in the model.