A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Chemical communication of predation risk in zebrafish does not depend on cortisol increase

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Polymorphism In Lep And Lepr May Modify Leptin Levels And Represent Risk Factors For Thyroid Cancer.

Purpose. To understand the role of polymorphisms in the LEP (rs7799039 and rs2167270) and LEPR (rs1137101 and rs1137100) genes in DTC susceptibility and their effect on leptin levels. Methods. We studied 153 patients with DTC and 234 controls through TaqMan SNP Genotyping and ELISA, comparing these data to the clinicopathological data of patients with DTC. Results. Patients with AA genotype of rs7799039 had higher levels of serum leptin (9.22 ± 0.98 ng/mL) than those with AG genotype (10.07 ± 0.60 ng/mL; P = 0.005). Individuals with AG genotype of rs2167270 also produced higher serum leptin levels (10.05 ± 0.59 ng/mL) than the subjects with GG genotype (9.52 ± 0.79 ng/mL; P < 0.05). A multivariate logistic regression adjusted for gender, age, and BMI showed that the AG genotype of rs7799039 was an independent risk for DTC (OR, 11.689; P = 0.0183; 95% CI, 1.516-90.119). Similarly, AG and GG genotypes of rs1137101 increased the susceptibility to DTC (OR, 3.747; P = 0.027; 95% CI, 1.161-12.092 and OR, 5.437; P = 0.013; 95% CI, 1.426-20.729). Conclusions. We demonstrated that rs7799039 and rs2167270 polymorphisms modify the serum leptin concentrations in patients with DTC. Furthermore, polymorphisms rs7799039 and rs1137101 increase the risk of DTC development, although they do not correlate with tumor aggressiveness.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Prevalence and Risk of Asthma Symptoms Among Firefighters in Sao Paulo, Brazil: A Population-Based Study

The firefighters are at increased risk of respiratory disease as a result of exposure to smoke and dust. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk associated with respiratory symptoms among city firefighters in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods A cross-sectional study utilizing the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) questionnaire was administered to firefighters and police officers, in order to evaluate their respiratory symptoms. Results Complete respiraton, data were obtained from 1,235 firefighters and 1,839 police officers. Among the firefighters, there were 55.5% never-smokers, 22.4% current smokers and 18.2% former smokers (P < 0.05). Among the police officers, there were 63.4%, 18.6%, and 9.6% who were never-smokers, current smokers and former smokers (P < 0.05), respectively. Compared to police, firefighters experienced an increase in wheezing [OR = 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43-1.87)], wheezing with breathlessness [OR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.10-1.64)], wheezing without a cold [OR = 1.60 (95% CI: 1.32-1.95)], waking with tightness in the chest [OR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.02-1.42)], and rhinitis [OR = 1.12 (95% CI: 1.03-1.22)]. The prevalence of adult-onset asthma in never-smokers was 9.3% and 6.7% for firefighters and police officers [OR = 1.23 (95% CI: 1.01-1.56)]. All independent association was observed between years employed, smoking, history of rhinitis, and work as a firefighter and respiratory, and nasal symptoms. We observed a high prevalence of asthma-like symptoms in firefighters who presented respiratory symptoms beginning immediately after firefighting. Conclusion These results suggest that the prevalence of respiratory symptoms and asthma in firefighters is higher than those in police officers. Work-as a firefighter, rhinitis and vears employed were risk factors for respiratory,symptoms of asthma. Am. J. Ind. Med. 52:261 269, 2009. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Determinants of left ventricular mass and presence of metabolic risk factors in normotensive individuals

Background: Insulin resistance and obesity are recognized as left ventricular (LV) mass determinants independent of blood pressure (BP). Prevalence of LV hypertrophy (LVH) and the relationship between LV mass to body composition and metabolic variables were evaluated in normotensive individuals as participants of a population-based study. Methods: LV mass was measured using the second harmonic image by M-mode 2D guided echocardiography in 326 normotensive subjects (mean 47 +/- 9.4 years). Fasting serum lipids and glucose, BP, body composition and waist circumference (WC) were recorded during a clinic visit. Results: Applying a normalization criterion not related to body weight (g/height raised to the power 2.7) and the cut-off points of 47.7 (men) and 46.6 g/m(2.7) (women), LVH was found in 7.9% of the sample. Univariate analysis showed LV mass (g/m(2.7)) related to age, body mass index (BMI), WC, fat and lean body mass, systolic and diastolic BP, and metabolic variables (cholesterol, HDL-c, triglycerides and glucose). In multivariate analysis only BMI and age-adjusted systolic BP remained as independent predictors of LV mass, explaining 31% and 5% of its variability. Removing BMI from the model, WC, age-adjusted systolic BP and lean mass remained independent predictors, explaining 25.0%, 4.0% and 1.5% of LV mass variability, respectively. After sex stratification, LV mass predictors were WC (8%) and systolic BP (5%) in men and WC (36%) and systolic BP (3%) in women. Conclusion: BMI in general and particularly increased abdominal adiposity (WC as surrogate) seems to account for most of LV mass increase in normotensive individuals, mainly in women. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paternal and maternal ages at conception and risk of bipolar affective disorder in their offspring

Background. A consistent association between paternal age and their offspring`s risk of schizophrenia has been observed, with no independent association with maternal age. The relationship of paternal and maternal ages with risk of bipolar affective disorders (BPAD) in the offspring is less clear. The present study aimed at testing the hypothesis that paternal age is associated with their offspring`s risk of BPAD, whereas maternal age is not. Method. This population-based cohort study was conducted with individuals born in Sweden during 1973-1980 and still resident there at age 16 years. Outcome was first hospital admission with a diagnosis of BPAD. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox`s proportional hazard regression. Results. After adjustment for all potential confounding variables except maternal age, the HR for risk of BPAD for each 10-year increase in paternal age was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (Cl) 1.11-1.48], but this fell to 1.20 (95% CI 0.97-1.48) after adjusting for maternal age. A similar result was found for maternal age and risk of BPAD [HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.08-1.56) before adjustment for paternal age, HR 1.12 (95% Cl 0.86-1.45) after adjustment]. The HR associated with having either parent aged 30 years or over was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.57) and it was 1.45 (95%, CI 1.16-1.81) if both parents were >30 years. Conclusions. Unlike schizophrenia, the risk of BPAD seems to be associated with both paternal and maternal ages.

Marijuana Smoking and the Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: Pooled Analysis in the INHANCE Consortium

Background: Marijuana contains carcinogens similar to tobacco smoke and has been suggested by relatively small studies to increase the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Because tobacco is a major risk factor for HNC, large studies with substantial numbers of never tobacco users could help to clarify whether marijuana smoking is independently associated with HNC risk. Methods: We pooled self-reported interview data on marijuana smoking and known HNC risk factors on 4,029 HNC cases and 5,015 controls from five case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium. Subanalyses were conducted among never tobacco users (493 cases and 1,813 controls) and among individuals who did not consume alcohol or smoke tobacco (237 cases and 887 controls). Results: The risk of HNC was not elevated by ever marijuana smoking [odds ratio (OR), 0.88; 95% confidence intervals (95% Cl), 0.67-1.16], and there was no increasing risk associated with increasing frequency, duration, or cumulative consumption of marijuana smoking. An increased risk of HNC associated with marijuana use was not detected among never tobacco users (OR, 0.93; 95% Cl, 0.63-1.37; three studies) nor among individuals who did not drink alcohol and smoke tobacco (OR, 1.06; 95% Cl, 0.47-2.38; two studies). Conclusion: Our results are consistent with the notion that infrequent marijuana smoking does not confer a risk of these malignancies. Nonetheless, because the prevalence of frequent marijuana smoking was low in most of the contributing studies, we could not rule out a moderately increased risk, particularly among subgroups without exposure to tobacco and alcohol. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(5):1544-51)

The Aging Process of the Heart: Obesity Is the Main Risk Factor for Left Atrial Enlargement During Aging The MONICA/KORA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinations in Cardiovascular Disease/Cooperative Research in the Region of Augsburg) Study

Objectives This prospective study evaluated the association of obesity and hypertension with left atrial (LA) volume over 10 years. Background Although left atrial enlargement (LAE) is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation, stroke, and death, little information is available about determinants of LA size in the general population. Methods Participants (1,212 men and women, age 25 to 74 years) originated from a sex-and age-stratified random sample of German residents of the Augsburg area (MONICA S3). Left atrial volume was determined by standardized echocardiography at baseline and again after 10 years. Left atrial volume was indexed to body height (iLA). Left atrial enlargement was defined as iLA >= 35.7 and >= 33.7 ml/m in men and women, respectively. Results At baseline, the prevalence of LAE was 9.8%. Both obesity and hypertension were independent predictors of LAE, obesity (odds ratio [OR]: 2.4; p < 0.001) being numerically stronger than hypertension (OR: 2.2; p < 0.001). Adjusted mean values for iLA were significantly lower in normal-weight hypertensive patients (25.4 ml/m) than in obese normotensive individuals (27.3 ml/m; p = 0.016). The highest iLA was found in the obese hypertensive subgroup (30.0 ml/m; p < 0.001 vs. all other groups). This group also presented with the highest increase in iLA (+6.0 ml/m) and the highest incidence (31.6%) of LAE upon follow-up. Conclusions In the general population, obesity appears to be the most important risk factor for LAE. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, early interventions, especially in young obese individuals, are essential to prevent premature onset of cardiac remodeling at the atrial level. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2009; 54: 1982-9) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Role of promoter polymorphisms in the plasma glutathione peroxidase (GPx-3) gene as a risk factor for cerebral venous thrombosis

Background and Purpose-Plasma glutathione peroxidase (GPx-3) is a major antioxidant enzyme in plasma and the extracellular space that scavenges reactive oxygen species produced during normal metabolism or after oxidative insult. A deficiency of this enzyme increases extracellular oxidant stress, promotes platelet activation, and may promote oxidative posttranslational modification of fibrinogen. We recently identified a haplotype (H-2) in the GPx-3 gene promoter that increases the risk of arterial ischemic stroke among children and young adults. Methods-The aim of this study is to identify possible relationships between promoter haplotypes in the GPx-3 gene and cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT). We studied the GPx-3 gene promoter from 23 patients with CVT and 123 young controls (18 to 45 years) by single-stranded conformational polymorphism and sequencing analysis. Results-Over half of CVT patients (52.1%) were heterozygous (H1H2) or homozygous (H2H2) carriers of the H-2 haplotype compared with 12.2% of controls, yielding a more than 10-fold independent increase in the risk of CVT (OR=10.7; 95% CI, 2.70 to 42.36; P<0.0001). Among women, the interaction of the H2 haplotype with hormonal risk factors increased the OR of CVT to almost 70 (P<0.0001). Conclusions-These findings show that a novel GPx-3 promoter haplotype is a strong, independent risk factor for CVT. As we have previously shown that this haplotype is associated with a reduction in transcriptional activity, which compromises antioxidant activity and antithrombotic benefits of the enzyme, these results suggest that a deficiency of GPx-3 leads to a cerebral venous thrombophilic state.

LONGITUDINAL REFERENCE VALUES FOR DUCTUS VENOSUS DOPPLER IN LOW-RISK PREGNANCIES

The aim of this study was to establish normal ranges of blood flow velocities and indices in the fetal ductus venosus (DV) during the second half of normal pregnancy. A Doppler study of 60 healthy pregnant women without fetal pathologies was performed during the second half of pregnancy. The peak systolic velocity (PSV), peak diastolic velocity (PDV), maximum velocity during atrial contraction (VAC), peak systolic velocity/maximum velocity during atrial contraction (S/A ratio), pulsatility index for the vein (PIV), preload index (PLI) and velocity index for the vein (VIV) were calculated from the DV at 4-week intervals. A significant increase in PSV, PDV and VAC was observed from the 20-23(6/7) to the 28-31(6/7) weeks, with stabilization of values until the end of the pregnancy. On the other hand, the study showed a significant decrease for the S/A ratio, PIV, PLI and VIV from the 20-23(6/7) to the 28-31(6/7) weeks and remaining stable from then until term. (E-mail:dralemar@uol.com.br) (C) 2010 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology.

Effects of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system on cardiovascular risk markers in patients with endometriosis: a comparative study with the GnRH analogue

Background: The study was conducted to evaluate the cardiovascular risk markers associated with endometriosis and the influence of the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (LNG-TUS) compared with the GnRH analogue (GnRHa) leuprolide acetate on these risk markers after 6 months of treatment. Study Design: This was a randomized, prospective, open clinical Study, with 44 patients with laparoscopically and histologically confirmed endometriosis. Patients were randomized into two groups: the LNG-IUS group, composed of 22 patients who underwent LNG-IUS insertion., and the GnRHa group, composed of 22 patients who received a monthly GnRHa injection for 6 months. Body mass index systolic and diastolic arterial blood pressure; heart rate; and laboratory cardiovascular risk markers such as interlelikin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein (CRP), homocysteine (HMC), lipid profile, total leukocytes and vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM) were measured before and 6 months after treatment. Results: After 6 months of treatment, a significant reduction in pain score occurred in both groups with no significant difference in improvement between the two medications evaluated. In the LNG-IUS group, from pretreatment to posttreatment period, there was a significant reduction in the levels (mean +/- SD) of VCAM (92.8 +/- 4.2 to 91.2 +/- 2.7 ng/mL, p=.04), CRP (0.38 +/- 0.30 to 0.28 +/- 0.21 mg/dL, p=.03), total cholesterol (247.0 +/- 85.0 to 180.0 +/- 31.0 mg/dL, p=.0002), triglycerides (118.0 +/- 76.0 to 86.5 +/- 41.5 mg/dL, p=.003), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (160.5 +/- 66.0 to 114.5 +/- 25.5 mg/dL, p=.0005) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (63.0 +/- 20.5 to 48.5 +/- 10.5 mg/dL, p=.002). The GnRHa group showed an increase in HMC levels (11.5 +/- 2.9 to 13.0 +/- 2.7 mu mol/L, p=.04) and a reduction in IL-6 levels (4.3 +/- 3.9 to 2.3 +/- 0.8 pg/mL, p=.005), VCAM (94.0 +/- 3.8 to 92.0 +/- 1.6 ng/mL, p=.03) and total leukocytes (7330 +/- 2554 to 6350 +/- 1778, p=.01). In the GnRH group, the remaining variables, including lipid profile, did not show any statistical difference. Conclusions: This study shows that some cardiovascular risk markers are influenced by both GnRHa and the LNG-TUS, but the latter had a greater positive impact on the lipid profile, which could lead to a favorable effect during long-term treatment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human directed aggression in Brazilian domestic cats: owner reported prevalence, contexts and risk factors

Aggression by cats towards humans is a serious behavioural, welfare and public health problem, although owners may believe it is an inevitable part of cat ownership. There has been little scientific investigation of the risk factors associated with this problem. One hundred and seven owners in the Sao Paulo region of Brazil, took part in a survey aimed at investigating the perceived prevalence of the problem, defining the most common contexts of human directed aggression and identifying associated potential risk factors. Human directed aggression occurred in 49.5%, of cats and was most commonly associated with situations involving petting and play, followed by protection of a resource, when startled, when observing an unfamiliar animal and least commonly when unfamiliar people were present. Pedigree status, neuter status, a history of early trauma, sensitivity to being stroked, the absence of other cats in the home, relationship with other animals, level of background activity at home, access to the outside and tendency to be alone (meaning tendency to staying far from the family members) were all associated with an increased risk in one or more context. However, sex, age, age when acquired, source of pet, attachment to a specific household member, type of domestic accommodation, relationship with another cat if present and contact with other animals did not appear to increase the risk. The results suggest sensitivity to being stroked and background levels of stress in the home are the most pervasive risk factors, and future research should aim to investigate these factors further. These data are of relevance when advising owners about the risk and development of this problem. (C) 2009 ESFM and AAFP. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ki-67 expression in non-tumour epithelium adjacent to oral cancer as risk marker for multiple oral tumours

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine whether the differential assessment of epithelial proliferation is useful to diagnose premalignant fields and assess the risk of multiple tumours. Material and methods: We analysed 83 oral carcinomas with associated non-tumour epithelium classified as distant or close according to its distance (> or < 1 cm) from the invasion point, and as squamous hyperplasia, mild, moderate, severe dysplasia or carcinoma in situ. Twenty-five healthy oral mucosa samples were used as controls. An immunohistochemical technique was applied using Mib-1. Ki-67 in premalignant epithelium was assessed in basal layer, parabasal layer, medium and upper third. Results: Parabasal expression was significantly higher or showed a tendency to be higher in close and distant epithelia with any histological grade than in the controls. Parabasal Ki-67 significantly differed between distant epithelia associated with multiple vs single tumours (P < 0.001) and between distant epithelia associated with multiple tumours vs controls (P < 0.001). This difference was not observed between distant epithelia associated with single tumours and controls (P = 0.175). The cut-off point that differentiated epithelia associated with multiple tumours was > 50% of Ki-67 + parabasal cells in distant epithelia, which yielded 0.88 sensitivity and 0.79 specificity. Conclusions: The concept of a precancerous field may be linked to an increase in the proliferative activity of parabasal cells.

Dietary fat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in women

Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.